Climate change policies and oil price effects on the Mexican … · 2019-01-23 · Objective The...
19
Climate change policies and oil price effects on the Mexican Electricity System in the medium and long term Helena Cabal Cuesta Yolanda Lechón Pérez Antonio Rodríguez Martínez Rosenberg. J. Romero
Transcript of Climate change policies and oil price effects on the Mexican … · 2019-01-23 · Objective The...
Climate change policies and oil price effects on the Mexican Electricity System in the
medium and long term
Helena Cabal Cuesta
Yolanda Lechón Pérez
Antonio Rodríguez Martínez
Rosenberg. J. Romero
Content
• Introduction
• Objective
• Methodology
• Results
• Conclusions
2
Introduction
3
GDP of 1,294 billon (2005 USD$)
www.inegi.org.mx
In 2015…
Introduction
4
http://energyatlas.iea.org/
2013: Total Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe)
In 2013, 13th Producer of Global Primary Energy.
Introduction
5
http://energyatlas.iea.org/
2013: CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (Mt CO2)
In 2013, 12th in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion.
Introduction
6
http://energyatlas.iea.org/
CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (Mt CO2)
Mexico evolution:
CO2 Emissions / Population (kg CO2 / capita)
Introduction
7
Mexico evolution:
Public electricity system in Mexico in the period 2002-2012
Source: SENER, 2013
Introduction
8
Mexico Climate Change efforts:
Environmental and energy targets from Federal Government of Mexico
(SENER, 2013).
Introduction
9
Mexico Climate Change efforts:
National Climate Change Strategy.
ENCC, 2013. Mexico government.
Introduction
10
COPAR: Costs and benchmarks for formulating investment projects in the electricity sector.
Federal Commission of Electricity. Mexico
Objective The objective is to analyze the evolution of the Mexican Electricity System in
the long term based on energy policies and, the oil price trends.
National Strategy of Climate Change
I. Climate objectives
442,859 kt CO2 total by 2020 (-30% compared to 2000 levels)
210,880 kt CO2 total by 2050 (-50% compared to 2000 levels)
II. Electricity objectives
35% share clean energies in electricity generation by 2024
40% share clean energies in electricity generation by 2034
50% share clean energies in electricity generation by 2054
Cost of Mexican Maya crude oil
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
11
Methodology The EFDA TIMES Model (ETM) is a techno-economic model of the global
energy system which belongs to the TIMES models family.
• ETM uses the TIMES model generator developed by IEA-ETSAP (IEA Energy Technology
Systems Analysis Programme Implementing Agreement)
• 17 world regions: Africa, Australia-New Zealand, Brazil, Central Asia and Caucasus, Canada,
China, Europe, India, Japan, Middle East, Mexico, Other Developing Asia, Other Eastern Europe,
Other Latin America, Russia, South Korea, and United States.
• Time horizon: 2100
12
Methodology Long term scenarios.
Scenario Assumptions
GLCC (clean technologies) Oil Price
Low Yes COPAR-Low
Medium Yes COPAR-Medium
High Yes COPAR-High
13
Results Long term scenarios:
14
Results Long term scenarios:
15
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mt
CO
2
CO2 emissions from MES
Low
Medium
High
Results Long term scenarios:
16
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Res
Low
Medium
High
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Res
Low
Base
High
Clean Tech.Obj.
Results DDPP MX 2015 Report
17
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
MEX Mix @ COPAR Base
Ocean
Geo
Bio
PV
CSP
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Tovilla, J. et al. (2015). Pathways to deep decarbonization in Mexico, SDSN – IDDRI.
MX – No CCS
Conclusions The Mexican government launched in 2013 an ambitious energy reform to
modernize the energy system.
The results of this work show to what extent the energy targets are achievable
in terms of technologies and resources availability under different oil price
scenarios.
Through the use of a global energy optimization model, 3 scenarios have been
built to analyse the evolution of the public Mexican electricity system under
different assumptions on policies and oil prices.
Main technologies to meet RES targets are Wind, Solar and Geothermal.
18
Climate change policies and oil price effects on the Mexican Electricity System in the
medium and long term
Helena Cabal Cuesta
Yolanda Lechón Pérez
Antonio Rodríguez Martínez
Rosenberg. J. Romero
http://rdgroups.ciemat.es/web/ase
