Climate change on western federal lands:

How does it affect us and what can we do about it?

FLM Perspectives

WESTARSpring 2015

MeetingSan Francisco,

CA

• Share some basic science regarding climate change

• Show how it is affecting federal lands and how that affects public health and welfare and state economies.

• Share what the FLM agencies and our partners are doing to mitigate and adapt to climate change and reduce operational carbon footprints

• Find out how we can collaborate with WESTAR states and EPA to reduce GHG emissions, develop abundant clean energy and jobs, improve energy efficiency and put the brakes on climate change.

OBJECTIVES

• We share a responsibility to protect air quality to protect human health and welfare

• We use science to inform our decision- and policy-making.

• We recognize that human economies and environmental health are linked.

• We care about the young people we know and what their world will be like.

WHAT CONNECTS US?

Air pollution in New York City 1966-1970

1966 NYCLichen desert

2014CentralPark

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http://www.ipcc.ch National Climate Assessment: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE: INFORMATION SOURCES

CLIMATE TIPPING POINTS

Tipping Point

~Yrs to TP

Changes in the West African Monsoon

1-10

Changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon

1-10

Melting of the Arctic Sea Ice

10

Dieback of the Amazon Rainforest

50

Dieback of the Boreal Forests

50

Decline in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation

100

Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet

> 300

Melting of the Antarctica Ice Sheet

> 300

Interconnections between major biogeochemical features of the planet can cause feedbacks that amplify the effects of small changes in temperature.

SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE: HOW FAST SHOULD EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS OCCUR?

Hansen et al. 2008. Target Atmospheric CO2. Open Atmospheric Sci. J. 2: 217-231.

• To sustain the health, diversity, and productivity of the Nation's forests and grasslands to meet the needs of present and future generations. 193 MA

• Working with others to conserve, protect, and enhance fish, wildlife, plants and their habitats for the continuing benefit of the American people. 150 MA

• To preserve unimpaired the natural and cultural resources and values of the National Park System for the enjoyment, education, and inspiration of this and future generations. 84.4 MA

MISSIONS

http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/fedlands.html

All Federal and Indian Lands

Climate change impacts observed on federal lands and future vulnerabilities:

•Shifting plant and animal species habitat•Increasing sea-level in coastal & tidal areas•Increasing glacial melt•Decreasing snowfall and snowpack•Advancing spring warmth and streamflow•Increasing conifer mortality•Increasing wildfire extent, frequency, intensity

Gonzalez, P. (2011), Climate change impacts and carbon in U.S. national parks, Park Science, 28: 2.

IMPACTS TO WESTERN FEDERAL LANDS

• Air quality• Water quality and

supply• Wood products• Grazing• Hunting and wildlife

viewing• Tourism and recreation

HOW DOES THE CONDITION OF FEDERAL LANDS AFFECT PUBLIC HEALTH AND WELFARE?

Building Blocks of Federal Agencies’ Climate Response Programs•Sustainable Operations

Federal agency carbon footprints = ~1% of US

President Obama has set a goal for us to reduce our footprints by 40% in the next 10 years. =1% of US carbon footprint.

•Mitigation. From air program perspective we are working to mitigate GHG emissions through the NEPA process, through prescribed fire and by supporting actions at federal state and local levels.•Adaptation•Education•Sequestration

US forests sequester about 16% of annual carbon emissions

USFS goal is to retain that level of sequestration into the future

WHAT ARE FLMS DOING TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE?

Barnosky et al. 2011. Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already arrived? NATURE 471 :54

CALIFORNIA

A Northern Pintail. 

NEVADA

Devils Hole is the only natural habitat of the Devil's Hole pupfish, which thrives in the hot water and has been listed as endangered on the Endangered Species List since 1967.

COLORADO

Western resorts are expected to face a range of climate-related challenges, such outbreaks of pests like the mountain pine beetle, drought, and wet avalanches and heavy rains during the ski season.

Conservation of high altitude wetlands and forested ecosystems can provide direct and indirect benefits to wildlife like the threatened Canada lynx.

NEW MEXICO

What did San Andres National Wildlife Refuge in southern New Mexico -- winner of a 2008 Department of the Interior Environmental Achievement Award and a Department of Energy award -- pay for electricity in mid-February to mid-March this year?Nothing.

6,000-watt hybrid solar cell and wind energy system at San Andres National Wildlife Refuge .

FIRE AND RESILIENT ECOSYSTEMS

http://earthenginepartners.appspot.com/science-2013-global-forest

A LAST STORY: WHAT IS OUR LEGACY?

“The eyes of the future are looking back at us and they are praying for us to see beyond our own time…” --Terry Tempest Williams

We know how to solve air pollution problems, we can solve them together.

So how can FLMs, WESTAR states, and EPA best collaborate to reduce GHG emissions, develop abundant clean energy and jobs, improve energy efficiency and put the brakes on climate change?

ADDITIONAL SLIDES: GENERAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE: KEELING CURVE

Scripts Institute Keeling Curve http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ Animated Keeling Curve http://www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/climate-basics/climate-primer Animated Temperature: http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resource_center/28

SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE: CLIMATE FORCING

Hansen et al. 2008. Target Atmospheric CO2. Open Atmospheric Sci. J. 2: 217-231.

SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE: HOW MUCH OF REMAINING FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES CAN WE AFFORD TO BURN?

Hansen et al. 2008. Target Atmospheric CO2. Open Atmospheric Sci. J. 2: 217-231.

SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE: PROJECTED TIMING OF CLIMATE DEPARTURE FROM RECENT VARIABILITY

Source: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7470/full/nature12540.html

Barnosky et al.2011. Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already arrived? RESEARCH REVIEW 54 | NATURE | VOL 471 |

SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE: HOW FAST SHOULD EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS OCCUR?

AAAS Climate Change Evidence and Causes

ADDITIONAL SLIDES: WHAT ARE FEDERAL LAND MANAGERS DOING?

USFS RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Road Map and Scorecard

National Climate Assessment Forest Sector Technical Report

USDA Forest Service Climate Change Adaptation Plan

The Strategic Framework for Responding to Climate Change

NFS Carbon Assessments

NPS Climate Change Response Strategy (2010)•Describes goals and objectives under four components:

• Science• Adaptation• Mitigation• Communication

NPS Climate Change Action Plan 2012 – 2014 (2012)•Describes high-priority actions the NPS is currently or committed to undertaking

– Section I: Context for Action– Section II: Identifying Near-Term

Priorities– Section III: Preparing for New

Challenges and Opportunities

NPS CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY

NPS CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY

NPS Climate Change Action Plan, Highlights of 2014 Accomplishments (Draft)•Actions organized under eight areas:

1. Enhance workforce literacy2. Engage youth and their families3. Develop effective planning

frameworks and guidance4. Provide climate change science to

parks5. Implement NPS Green Parks Plan6. Foster robust partnerships7. Apply adaptation tools and

options8. Strengthen communication

•Actions include: videos, training, internships, monitoring impacts and vulnerabilities in parks, regional strategies, and guidance.

Alaska: Across the Wildest State, Climate Change Threatens Many Species & HabitatsArizona: As Vegetation Moves to Higher Elevations, What Happens to Pollinators?California: Incorporating Climate Change into Planning California’s Bay-Delta FutureColorado: Partners Work to Offset Effects of Shrinking SnowpackHawaii: Developing Options for Coral Reef Management in a Changing ClimateIdaho: Streamflow Responses to Climate Change - Why Elevation & Geology MatterMontana: Helping Wildlife Make “Connections” on the LandscapeNew Mexico: Getting Off the Electric GridNevada: Climate Change May Impact Existing Refuge Water ConcernsOregon: Preparing for Change on the North Pacific CoastSouth Dakota: No Ducking Climate Change Impacts to Prairie Pothole WetlandsUtah: Managing Water Resources for Fish, Wildlife and PeopleWashington: Tide Returns to Nisqually EstuaryWyoming: ‘Perfect Storm’ Fuels Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemichttp://www.fws.gov/home/climatechange/stories505050.html

ALASKA

WYOMING

Triggered by a “perfect storm” of extended droughts, warm winters, and old, dense forests, mountain pine beetle populations have exploded across a landscape of lodgepole pine trees throughout Colorado and southeastern Wyoming

three-toed woodpecker

mountain pine beetle

NORTH DAKOTA

A banded white pelican chick at Chase Lake National Wildlife Refuge faces many threats — including storms, disease and predators — before it is mature enough to fledge. Pelicans’ earlier initiation of nesting is putting the chicks at greater risk.