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Transcript of Climate Change: New Operations and Modeling Technologies Ants Leetmaa Geophysical Fluid Dynamics...
Climate Change: New Operations and Modeling Technologies
Ants Leetmaa
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Princeton, NJ
OVERVIEW
The Grand Challenges for 21st Century
• issues associated with population growth
• a changing climate
Climate – a global forecast
Possible impacts of global warming
Necessary new products to meet emerging societal needs
Institutional challenges for the NMHSs
Population Growth and Associated Issues
•9 billion (B) people by 2050 (50% increase)
•Increasing urbanization into mega-cities – 4B new city dwellers – aging populations
•Food security – sustainable increases in food output/hectare of 200-300% required
•Energy security
•Resulting environmental issues•Water availability•Air pollution•Droughts/floods•Stress on planetary resources
Background: A Variety of Forecasts
Weather• mostly regional, short-lived events• Deterministic forecasts• protection of life Seasonal climate• Global, seasons in advance• Probabilistic forecasts – deviations from normal seasons• Mitigation – energy,food,water,health, etc sectorsClimate change scenarios• Global, visions of the future• Includes chemistry and biology modeling• Projections of possible future changes to climatologies• Understanding unintended consequences & adaptation• Solving the “carbon” problem
Mid-1970s
Atmosphere
Mid-1980s
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Early 1990s
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea Ice
Late 1990s
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea Ice
SulphateAerosol
Present Day
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea Ice
SulphateAerosol
Non-sulphateAerosol
Carbon Cycle
Early 2000s?
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea Ice
SulphateAerosol
Non-sulphateAerosol
Carbon Cycle
DynamicVegetation
AtmosphericChemistry
Weather
Climate Change
ClimateVariability
Overview of Weather and Climate Models and the Required Observations
Need an Integrated Global Observing
System Going Beyond the WWW
Climate: a global forecast-most socioeconomic sectors can be impacted
-many risks and opportunities are globally correlated
-likelihood of weather extremes changes with climate state
Drier
WetterAnnual change in runoff (cm/yr) Summer Soil Moisture (cm)
Possible Global Warming Impacts
Annual Surface Air Temperature (deg C)
Conditions at double pre-industrial values of CO2
GFDL R30 model
Some New Forecast Products –Weather and S/I
Food Security and Health
•Drought including interactive vegetation
•Heat threats
•Pollution
•Coastal ecosystems
Adaptation
•Sea Level
These will be needed even without significant global warming impacts
° Climate models forced with the observed sea surface temperatures simulate the severe dryness over the US and Asia during 1998 – 2002
observed
Precipitation Departures June 1998 - May 2002
The Potential Exists for Drought Forecasts:
simulated
Critical for food and water security
Drought Forecasts First Steps: Nowcasting and Initialization – next steps – extending this to a North
American product & ….
Dynamical Drought Forecasting: includes land cover, water and carbon dynamics models
• interactive mechanistic physiology
for water and carbon fluxes (plants)• biogeochemical cycling • static or dynamic phenology,
biomass, LAI, vegetation height, disturbance and biogeography on a slow time scales
• multi-layer soil hydrology with frozen soil
• snow cover• runoff through a river network• current and historical global land
use (crop, pasture, tree harvesting)
Tg1, q(Tl, θ L1)
Tg6
qsat(Ts)
snow
Exchange grid
Ocean
θL1, θI 1,
θLn, θI n
Tca, qca
Tl, qsat(Tl)
Terrestrial Ecosystem Forecasting – First Steps: Modeling the Carbon Cycle
Net primary productivity
Diurnal cycle
Annual cycle
Equilibrium storage of carbon (kg/m2) in soils and plants
1990
2030
Projected Surface Ozone Trends - Southern CA
Total Ozone“Asian” Ozone
US EPA
NAAQS
Ozone impacts health and agriculture
2030
Implementing Chemistry-Climate-Air Quality Models
RadiativeForcing
AirQuality
Emissions
Chemistry
Transport
Sinks
Distributions
CirculationHydrological Cycle
Climate Change
HealthAgriculture
Feedbacks
Gobi Desert Dust – April 2001
Increasing pressures to farm marginal regions result in increased aerosol transports during times of climate stress
Global Air Quality & Pollution
Black Blizzard, Dust Bowl U.S
Kansas, 1935
?
Global Aerosol Transports
•A simulation capability with observed winds exists
•being incorporated into coupled climate change models
Barbados-obs; simulated-black
African dust transport across the Atlantic
Excessive Heat Outlook Product - NWS
Likely Increases in Health Threats: Mega-cities, older populations, pollution, increasing temperatures
Hydrologic & Biological Model Integration
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Predicted
Ob
se
rve
dO
bs
erv
ed
Mortality=-37-(1.98*Saldev)+(1.75*Salmax)-(0.23*Salavg)
PredictedMortality
HEC-5
DYN-HYD
SalinityTemperatureCurrents
Apalachicola Bay Hyrodynamic Model
Physical Modeling Biological Modeling
SalinityTemperatureCurrents
Ecological Forecasting: coastal systems are under increasing stress from population growth, chemical runoff, land use
Hypoxia (biological dead zones) in the Gulf of Mexico:- linked to nitrogen (fertilizer) runoff from mid-West farming- depend on changes to runoff patterns- impact coastal fisheries- enhance likelihood of harmful algal blooms
Frequency of Occurrence 1985 - 1999
An Increasingly Stressed Environment
Global Warming Impacts: Sea Level Rise – an existing and emerging threat to coasts and islands
4x CO2
2X
Time of doubling of CO2
Staff of Tuvalu, Funafuti, Meteorological Service
(Southwestern Pacific)
Flooding at Tuvalu Meteorological Observatory, Funafuti
Normal high elevation at
Observatory is 3 meters
Sea Level Trends at Tuvalu(Increasing extremes result not just from slow trends)
Trend=1.8 +-2.8 mm/yr Trend=6.8+-2.8 mm/yr
1980 1990 20001980 1990 2000
Monthly data Hourly data
Larger trend in hourly data results from high spring tides, higher seasonal maximum, variations associated with weather events and long term trend.
Increase roughly at that for global sea level rise
Will your future forecasts be relevant?
Now- 80 degrees, partly cloudy, winds calm
Needed- water levels peaking at 4 meters in 36 hours; subsiding over 3 weeks
Or will you just move your country?
What will be or are your pressing new problem needs?
Your Ability to Develop New Products is Limited
• Technology progresses faster than the demand for new products
• Since these are not your main products, developmental resources will be inadequate
• new demand must be generated -oceanographers and climate guys will play this role
• You are failure adverse – new products entail risks
• The niche will be filled. Since your core business is elsewhere, the opportunity exists for innovators to move in
• Who will the new players be?