Climate Change, land degradation and migration

in Mali and Senegal and their policy impacts

Diana Hummel & Victoria van der Land

“The Hamburg Conference: Actions for Climate Induced Migration”

Hamburg, 16–18 July 2013

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Project „migration, climate change & environment in the Sahel“ (micle)

■ Cooperation partners

■ ISOE – Institute for social-ecological research (Project coordination)

■ Geographical Institute, University of Bayreuth

■ Partners in Mali und Senegal

■ Point Sud - Center for Research on Local Knowledge, Bamako, Mali

■ LARTES - Laboratoire de Recherche sur les Transformations Economiques et Sociales, Université de Dakar, Senegal

Duration: September 2010 - April 2014

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Overall Objective & Research Question

■ Analysis of interactions between climate change, land degradation and migration in Sahelian regions Senegal and Mali

■ motives for migration and patterns thereof

■ local population‘s perception and evaluation of climate and environmental changes

■ role of climate and environmental changes in migration decisions

■ What are the specific social-ecological conditions under which migration takes place and how are these conditions impacted by climate and environmental changes?

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Project Design: Inter- & transdisciplinary Approach

■ Methodology that integrates natural-scientific and social-scientific insights, as well as scientific & non-scientific knowledge

■ In-depth study at local and regional level

■ Identification of policy options (orientation knowledge)

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General Hypotheses

■ Specific social-ecological conditions constitute the context for migration decisions

■ Migration results from interplaying factors on different scales

■ Migration is path-dependent, multi-causal, multi-directional and selective

■ Temporal & circular migration as an established and successful strategy to cope with climate variablity and as integral part of societal action

■ Environmental conditions can impact mobility, environmental changes can be one factor for changes in mobility structures

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Methods - Social-empirical analysis

■ Survey: 900 interviews with individuals in Bandiagara and Linguére and in Bamako and Dakar

■ Ca. 120 qualitative Interviews

■ Expert interviews

■ Focus groups

■ Participatory observation

■ Joint fieldwork of natural & social scientists

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Physio-Geographical Analysis

Temporal-spatial patterns of climate variability (temperature, precipitation) & vegetation changes

Methods■ Comparison & evaluation of existing

climate data and localisation

■ Long-term time series and high resolution time series

■ Validation of changes with higher resolution systems (Landsat, Rapideye)

■ On-site field work: Ground truthing, interviews with local inhabitants

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Study Regions Linguère & Bandiagara

■ High population mobility, migration deficit

■ Increasing rainfall variability and land degradation

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Focus on Land Degradation

Reduction of biological productivity of dryland ecosystems & degradation of ecosystem services as result of natural processes & human activities

■ Study areas characterized by■ decreasing soil productivity and reduced biodiversity

■ decrease of agricultural production

■ food insecurity

■ increased livestock numbers

■ deforestation, shortage of fuelwood

■ phenomena of „greening“

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Local Representations of Climate & Environment: Rainfall

■ Amounts of rainfall today lower than in the 1960s, rising precipiation in past 20 years

■ Upward trends for the last 5 years & very abundant rainfalls in 2009/2010: very good harvests (ML; SN), but also flooding & crop failure (ML)

■ Not only quantity, but distribution & timing of rainfall important: uncertain start & end of rainy season, heavy rainfalls increasing, persisting moisture on fields

■ Other factors for good harvests: access to seeds, fertilizer, availability of land, labor force

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Migration Patterns – Spatial Dimension

Migration is predominantly internal or regional

■ Internal migration prevails

- to cities capitals

- Mali: also to rural destinations in the South

■ Few international/regional migration to

Europe, USA & Gulf States more common inLinguère, rare in BandiagaraAbidjan/Cote d‘Ivoire mostimportant destination for

migrants from Bandiagara

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Survey: (Non-)Governmental Supports and Migration Experience

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Suvey: Attitudes towards migration policies

Governmental Action

More than 50% are in favor of encouragement of migration, but almost half of respondents are for restrictive policies

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Survey: Attitudes towards migration

Great majority of respondents would advise family members to migrate

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First results from survey

■ Most findings confirm existing studies

■ Migration characterized by

■ multitude of migration destinations and objectives/motives

■ „new obscurity“ of migration: rural-urban & seasonal migration prevails, but increasingly during the rainy season

■ internal & international migration patterns are intertwined and affected by translocal provisioning strategies

■ social networks are important for migration decisions & motives

■ significant increase of female migration (sometimes sanctioned)

■ Role of education leval & education as motive for migration

■ Climate variability

■ irregularity of rainfall considered as serious problem

■ bad harvests and food shortages are motives for migration

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Policy impacts

■ Dealing with fragmented governance-systems in diverse policy-arenas

■ Multi-level governance necessary with focus on citizen‘s needs■ Inreasing capabilities of the youth

■ Education (not only education level, but quality)

■ Labor in agriculture, industry, services

■ Environment & nature protection

■ Inclusive urban and regional development planning

■ Important instruments at national level■ Development: Poverty reduction strategy papers (PRSP)

■ Climate & environment: National Action plans (NAPA)

Implementation and ownership

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References

■ Adamo, S.B. (2008): Addressing environmentally induced population displacements: A delicate task. Background Paper for the Population-Environment Research Network Cyberseminar “Environmentally Induced Population Displacements”, 18–29 August 2008 www.populationenvironmentresearch.org (2-21-2012)

■ Bilsborrow, R.E./ Henry, S.J.F. (2012): The use of survey data to study migration-environment relationships in developing countries: alternative approaches to data collection. Population and Environment 34, 113-141

■ Black, R./D. Kniveton/R. Skeldon/D. Coppard/A. Murata/K. Schmidt-Verkerk (2008): Demographics and Climate Change: Future Trends and their Policy Implicationf for Migration. Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty. Brighton: University of Sussex

■ Doevenspeck, M. (2011): The Thin Line Between Choice and Flight: Environment and Migration in Rural Benin. International Migration, 49(S1): 50–68

■ Findley, S.E. (1994): Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983–1985 drought. International Migration Review, 28(3): 539–553

■ Foresight: Migration and Environmental Change (2011): Final Report. London: The Government Office for Science

■ Hummel, D. (Ed.) (2008): Population dynamics and supply systems. A transdisciplinary approach. Frankfurt/New York

■ Hummel, D.; Doevenspeck, M.; Samimi, C. (2012): Climate change, environment and migration in the Sahel. Selected issues with a focus on Senegal and Mali

■ Hummel, D.; van der Land, V. (in print): Vulnerability and the Role of Education in Environmentally Induced Migration in Mali and Senegal“. Ecolgy and Society

■ Piguet, E.; Pécoud, A.; de Guchteneire, P. (2011): Migration and Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

■ Warner, K. (2011): Environmental change and migration: methodological considerations from ground-breaking global survey. Population and Environment 33: 3–27

Thank you much for your attention!