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Monday, October 7, 2013 - Climatism: A Mad, Mad, Mad World by Steve Goreham

CHICAGO, October 7, 2013 — Climate scientists are obsessed withcarbon dioxide. The newly released Fifth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that “radiativeforcing” from human-emitted CO2 is the leading driver of climate change.Carbon dioxide is blamed for everything from causing more droughts,floods, and hurricanes, to endangering polar bears and acidifying theoceans. But Earth’s climate is dominated by water, not carbon dioxide.

Earth’s water cycle encompasses the salt water of the oceans, the freshwater of rivers and lakes, and frozen icecaps and glaciers. It includeswater flows within and between the oceans, atmosphere, and land, in theform of evaporation, precipitation, storms and weather. The water cyclecontains enormous energy flows that shape Earth’s climate, temperaturetrends, and surface features. Water effects are orders of magnitude largerthan the feared effects of carbon dioxide.

SEE RELATED: Climate policies lock chains on developing nations

Sunlight falls directly on the Tropics, where much energy is absorbed, andindirectly on the Polar Regions, where less energy is absorbed. All weather on Earth is driven by aredistribution of heat from the Tropics to the Polar Regions. Evaporation creates massive tropical stormsystems, which move heat energy north to cooler latitudes. Upper level winds, along with the stormfronts, cyclones, and ocean currents of Earth’s water cycle, redistribute heat energy from the Tropics tothe Polar Regions.

Climate change is dominated by the water cycle, notcarbon dioxide

Photo: Justin Hobson

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The Pacific Ocean is Earth’s largest surface feature, covering one-third ofthe globe and large enough to contain all land masses with arearemaining. Oceans have 250 times the mass of the atmosphere and canhold over 1,000 times the heat energy. Oceans have a powerful, yet littleunderstood effect on Earth’s climate.

Even the greenhouse effect itself is dominated by water. Between 75percent and 90 percent of Earth’s greenhouse effect is caused by watervapor and clouds.

Yet, the IPCC and today’s climate modelers propose that the “flea” wags“the dog.” The flea, of course, is carbon dioxide, and the dog, is the watercycle. The theory of man-made warming assumes a positive feedbackfrom water vapor, forced by human emissions of greenhouse gases.

SEE RELATED: Sea level rise: Climate change and an ocean ofnatural variability

The argument is that, since warmer air can hold more moisture,atmospheric water vapor will increase as Earth warms. Since water vaporis a greenhouse gas, additional water vapor is presumed to add additionalwarming to that caused by CO2. In effect, the theory assumes that thecarbon cycle is controlling the more powerful water cycle.

But for the last 16 years, Earth’s surface temperatures have failed to rise,despite rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. All climate models predicted arapid rise in global temperatures, in conflict with actual measured data.Today’s models are often unable to predict weather conditions for a singleseason, let alone long-term climate trends.

An example is Atlantic hurricane prediction. In May, the National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its 2013 hurricane forecast, calling for an “active orextremely active” hurricane season. At that time, NOAA predicted 7 to 11 Atlantic hurricanes (stormswith sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher). In August NOAA revised their forecast down to 6 to 9hurricanes. We entered October with a count of only two hurricane-strength storms . Computer modelsare unable to accurately forecast one season of Earth’s water cycle in just one region.

The IPCC and proponents of the theory of man-made warming are stumped by the 16-year halt inglobal surface temperature rise. Dr. Kevin Trenberth hypothesizes that the heat energy fromgreenhouse gas forcing has gone into the deep oceans. If so, score one for the power of the oceans onclimate change.

SEE RELATED: Warming oceans may cause higher mercury levels in fish

Others have noted the prevalence of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean since 1998. During1975-1998, when global temperatures were rising, the Pacific experienced more warm El Niño eventsthan the cooler La Niñas. But the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a powerful temperature cycle inthe North Pacific Ocean, moved into a cool phase about ten years ago. With the PDO in a cool phase,we now see more La Niña conditions. Maybe more La Niñas are the reason for the recent flat globaltemperatures. But if so, isn’t this evidence that ocean and water cycle effects are stronger than theeffects of CO2?

Geologic evidence from past ice ages shows that atmospheric carbon dioxide increases follow, ratherthan precede, global temperature increases. As the oceans warm, they release CO2 into theatmosphere. Climate change is dominated by changes in the water cycle, driven by solar andgravitational forces, and carbon dioxide appears to play only a minor role.

Steve Goreham is Executive Director of the Climate Science Coalition of America and author of thenew book The Mad, Mad, Mad World of Climatism: Mankind and Climate Change Mania.

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116 comments

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Loulotte • 8 days agodid you ever heard of MARCEL LEROUX , the french climatologist ?? his book is inenglish

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ML NJ • 10 days agoThe reason it had to be carbon dioxide and not water is that they knew that they couldnever convince the unwashed that water is a dangerous substance.

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21st Century Pacifist • 12 days agoAmazing. Your theory is like saying that when someone gets shot, that the main reasonwas because it was dark.Of course the water cycle influences many other phenomena in this here Earth. It isone of many things that do. That doesn't mean that fossil fuel use may not be causingdisruptions that 97% of all scientist believe will cause catastrophic problems in thenear future.As an engineer I know that there are effects for every action. To believe that ageometric increase in the production of carbon dioxide and other gases resulting fromfossil fuels is not having an effect is denying the evident.

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Lee Birkhead • 10 days ago> 21st Century PacifistI've been an engineer for 50 years and what you say is B.S. CO2 is only 3.62 %of green house gases and only 00.028% is created by humans burninghydrocarbons. Get real! There are 63++ active volcanoes that give off moreCO2 than what we burn.

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Mike435 • 12 days ago> 21st Century PacifistVarious surveys show 95-98% of scientists publishing in climatology agreehuman ghg emissions are warming the atmosphere. Those surveys did not askif they thought it would be catastrophic. The evidence for consensus on theseriousness of agw is in the official statements issued buy professionalscientific societies that robnbc listed.

Reply

JP • 12 days ago> Mike435Those scientists publishing in climatalogy all have a fatal conflict ofinterest in that their jobs depend on AGW. Hence, their consensus is notonly irrelevant, it is completely untrustworthy.

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Mike435 • 12 days ago> JPNo. The few who do disagree still have their grants and tenure.Further, the mainstream scientists were saying the same thingswhen Bush appointees ran the NSF.

Reply

JP • 12 days ago> 21st Century Pacifist97% of scientists DO NOT believe in alarm. Nice way to introduce yourself witha lie.

There is no evidence that a geometric increase in CO2 is having an effect onclimate - outside of it greening the planet and making life happier and moreabundant.

1

robnbc • 12 days ago

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