Climate Change – International Context Oxfam New Zealand Pacific Forum Side Event 7 Sept, 2011
Climate Change – International Context Oxfam New Zealand Pacific Forum Side Event 7 Sept, 2011.
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Transcript of Climate Change – International Context Oxfam New Zealand Pacific Forum Side Event 7 Sept, 2011.
Climate Change – International Context
Oxfam New ZealandPacific Forum Side Event
7 Sept, 2011
Climate Change – International Context
• UNFCCC – Durban expectations - Legal form - Mitigation - Finance: governance and sources
• UNFCCC - National elements • Climate Finance - Bunkers
State of play - legal form
• LCA and KP track• KP expires 31 Dec 2012• Likely, KP next phase will be
‘transitional’, one or more years, • Likely KP rules preserved and docked
into long term framework• Commitments and actions all Parties,
(by 2015) while respecting CBDR
State of play for mitigationDeveloped country mitigationIPCC called for 25-40% by 2020, from 1990 levels, legally binding
targets.
Bottom up offers, from 1990 levels:• Norway: 40%• EU: 30% if others do• NZ: 10-20% with conditions• US: stabilisation to -3%• Total Annex 1: 11-18%
• Oxfam: 40% below 1990, majority ofeffort through domestic action
• AOSIS: 45%
State of play for mitigationDeveloping country mitigation
15-30% below business-as-usual by 2020. No targets, but actions, supported by finance and technology from developed countries.
Key issues:• Nature of ‘nationally appropriate mitigation actions’• Monitoring, reporting and verification• Carbon markets• Public finance for mitigation support• Deforestation• Responsibilities of China and others
Oxfam: mitigation actions for developing countries, supported by finance and technology
Expected mitigation pledges show minimum 4Gt gap to <2ºC trajectory (450ppm)
Low end of pledged ranges
High end of pledged ranges
Durban expectations for mitigation
• Move to top end of current pledges• Agree scale of gigatonne gap &
assessed effort sharing to close gap• Close loopholes• Agree rules eg. MRV, ICA• Developing Country design NAMAs• Agree rules for Registry • Anticipate AR5 due Oct 2014
Durban expectations for finance
• Green Climate Fund – appoint Board• 2013-2020 finance trajectory to
US$100bn/yr• Scaled up govt budgetary assessed
contributions for developed countries• Plus sources: FTT, Bunkers, SDR• MRV
What is likely at Durban?
• Scenarios - multilateral, stumbles along, breakdown
• Legal form - next phase will be ‘transitional’, one or more years, KP rule preserved and docked into long term framework
• Mitigation - need for market certainty, push to get as much certainty on mitigation
• Finance - design Global Green Fund, resistance to talk about sources (bunkers)
• Friends of Fossil Fuel Reforms
UNFCCC – Developing country national level
• Mitigation - submit NAMAs to registry • Submit NAPs • Finance – design national/regional governance• Advocate for adaptation and sources eg
bunkers• REDD• Ensure gender representation
What are bunkers?
Bunkers
• Most promising source, new, predictable• Growing emissions 2.7% global• Multilateral market based mechanism• Bunker fuel levy, developing countries
compensated, • US$10bn to GCF• At Durban, urge IMO to design, provide
principles on no net incidence to developing countries and GHG savings to be achieved
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