CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST Maps & graphs courtesy Dr. Kelly Redmond Regional...
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![Page 1: CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST Maps & graphs courtesy Dr. Kelly Redmond Regional Climatologist/Deputy Director Western Regional Climate Center Desert.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070415/56649cf75503460f949c6a5b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST
Maps & graphs courtesy Dr. Kelly Redmond
Regional Climatologist/Deputy DirectorWestern Regional Climate Center
Desert Research Institute Reno, Nev.
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spaceweather.com
2008: 266 of 366 days, No sunspots. Most spotless days since 1913 with 311 days.2009 through May 2: 117 days (87 pct of year).Typical solar min: 485 spotless days. This solar min thru May 2: 617 spotless days.
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Annual Winter Summer IPCC 2007
T(C)
P(%)
Agree ?
Thanks toPhil Mote
Late21st
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Seager et al, 2007. Average of 19 climate models. Figure by Naomi Naik.
www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/science.shtml
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R. Seager, M.F. Ting, I.M. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Lu, G. Vecchi, H.-P. Huang, N. Harnik, A.
Leetmaa, N.-C. Lau, C. Li, J. Velez, N. Naik, 2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid
Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, DOI:
10.1126/science.1139601
Average of 19 climate models.
2007.
Figure byGabriel Vecchi.
www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/
science.shtml
21 YearsFrom 2009
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Annual Temperature Trend 1976 - 2005 National Temperature Trend by Season
The Last 30 Years
Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
2005 2006 2007 2008
United States Annual Temperature Departure from 1950-1995 Mean
NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD
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Thru Dec 2008
NOAA
National Climatic Data Center
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The World’s Warm Oceans
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Through March 2009
“El Nino”
“La Nina”
NOAA ESRL (“CDC”), Wolter and Timlin
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Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C ) 2009 May 24-30
NOAA ESRL (“CDC”)
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Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures
Updated through 2009 May 24-30
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Sep 28, 1999 Sep 26, 2000 Sep 25, 2001
Sep 24, 2002 Sep 30, 2003 Sep 21, 2004
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Sep 27, 2005 Sep 26, 2006 Sep 25, 2007
Sep 30, 2008 Jun 02, 2009
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Lake Powell Storage Through June 4, 2009
Currently 62 % full (capacity 24.17 MAF)
Minimum: 33 % full on April 8, 2005
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Lake Powell Elevation Through June 4, 2009
Water level on Apr 17, 2009 was 3631.19 ft, - 69 ft below full. Minimum level on April 8, 2005 was 3555 ft, -145 ft below full.Source: www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.htl
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Water Year2008 Oct 1Thru2009 Jun 4
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Water Year2008 Oct 01
Thru2009 May 01
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May2009
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Historical Climatology Network – ModernizedSurvey Progress as of 2009 June 8
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Western Basins
Water Year Precipitation
fromSnotel Stations
Percent of Average
2008 October 01 thru2009 June 05
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Western Basins
Snow Water Content
fromSnotel Stations
Percent of Average
2009 June 05
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www.cefa.dri.edu/Westmap or www.wrcc.dri.edu/Projects (select Westmap)
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Time SeriesMonthlyFixed temperatureFixed heightPct precip as snowDailyFixed temperatureFixed heightMapsMonthly / DailyFixed temperature. Mean / departureFixed height Mean / departure
Product SetupGraph parametersPeriod / durationColor schemeAbsolute vs departure
Select type of product, set up display parameters, select location for time series or domain for map.
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?
?
?
Is the current Southwest drought a once-or-twice-a-century drought like those of the past 500 years …
? … or …
a harbinger of things to come, a different type of drought that we have not observed before ?