AGRHYMET Regional Centre

Permament Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel

Climate change in the Sahel

A challenge for sustainable development

Special Number Monthly Bulletin

Dear readers,

The Sahel sub-region was brought to the attention of the international community several decades ago by the major droughts experienced in the early 70s and 80s. These climatic disturbances have greatly affected the economies as well as ecosystems of this large geographic area in West Africa. The actions undertaken by the Permanent Inter-state Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) and its partners, since its establishment in 1973, have significantly contributed to mitigating the negative impacts of these weather disturbances. However, the farming systems and ways of life of these essentially agro-pastoral populations of the sub-region are still vulnerable to climatic hazards. Thus, the recent increase in localized yet at times very devastating extreme events such as droughts and floods, is likely to undermine the countries’ efforts towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). Indeed, the sub-region experienced in 2007, 2008 and 2009 its worst floods for over 30 years. Losses caused by these floods are estimated at several billions of dollars.

This situation which actually concerns not the Sahel region alone, is increasingly seen as a manifestation of climate change caused by global warming, which is itself due to the increase in the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Thus, climate change has become one of the major challenges for the entire planet to take up, with its multiple facets, including impact assessments, and mitigation and adaptation measures.

Different institutions have been established at the international level to address the scientific, diplomatic and legal aspects of these changes. Thus, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has begun to sensitize the States, particularly those which have most contributed to the phenomenon through their industrial and economic activities, and to obtain from them commitments towards reducing their emissions of greenhouse gases. The activities undertaken through various international protocols, such as the protocol of Kyoto, as well as the periodical meetings, including the COP15 which was held in Copenhagen (Denmark) last December, are now designated by the term “global climate governance”. Action plans and frameworks of cooperation on climate change have also been created at the national and sub-regional levels to better define the problem and identify possible responses in terms of mitigation and adaptation.

CILSS, which has a critical mass of scientific information on the issue, has already initiated research, training and advocacy actions on behalf of its member states. CILSS’ recognized expertise in this field led to her being chosen to help for the implementation of national and regional programmes on science and adaptation to climate change in West Africa.

This publication provides a framework for reflection and information-sharing through which the AGRHYMET Regional Centre would contribute to the debate on climate change in West Africa. It is based on the work of CILSS experts and focuses not only on the characterization of the phenomenon in our sub-region, its potential impacts on vital sectors of the economy, but also on adaptation measures undertaken with the populations. Enjoy your reading

Mohamed Yahya Ould Mohamed MAHMOUDDirector General of the AGRHYMET Regional Centre

Word of welcome

CONTENTS

Climate governance

The regional dimension of climate change

Climate variability and change in the Sahel

Impacts of climate change on food security

Farmers’ perceptions of climate variability

Local adaptation practices

Focus: The Project : “ Capacity Building for adaptation to Climate Change in Sahel ”

Global warming and increased flooding

p 5

p 12

p 14

p 17

p 21

p 31

p 33

p 35

Some definitions(Extracts from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)

1. “Adverse effects of climate change” means changes in the physical environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems, or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health and welfare;

2. “Climate change” means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods;

3. “Climate system”, means the totality of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and geo-sphere, and their interactions;

4. “Emissions”, means the release of greenhouse gases and/or their precursors into the atmosphere over a specified area and period of time;

5.”Greenhouse gases” means those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation;

6. Vulnerability expresses the level to which a system can be degraded or damaged in response to changing climate. It depends on both physical and socioeconomic factors.

7. Adaptation is the set of responses (solutions) to either positive or negative effects of climate change. It can be achieved naturally or through spontaneous reaction (e.g., when faced with a climate catastrophe) or early in the planning.

8. Climatic scenarios are long-term visions of future climate changes (i.e., climatic parameters) as well as major socioeconomic parameters in a given locality. They help to assess the vulnerability of the region and anticipate with adaptation measures.

4

The earth has always experienced climate fluctuations characterized by alternations between cold periods and warm periods. The earth has gone through several global warming and cooling cycles during the last million years. These variations are due to changing trajectory of the motion of the earth around the sun, to the orientation of its axis around itself, and to variations in the intensity of solar activity. Since the early 20th century, the average temperature of the earth has experienced unprecedented increase.This trend seems more correlated to the sharp increase in the atmosphere of concentration of greenhouse gases (boxes 1 and 2) such as dioxide carbon (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrogen dioxide (N2O). These gases are considered as being mainly responsible for climate change.

Global warming

Global Warming is a phenomenon of increased average temperature of oceans and the atmosphere at the global level and over several years. Today, this term is applied to a global warming trend measured during the last decades of the 20th century. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), in its fourth report involving 2 500 scientists from 130 countries, says that it is very likely (probability > 90 %) that the global warming observed since 1950 is of human origin.

by Dr. Benoît SARR, AGRHYMET Regional Centre

5

Box 1: Greenhouse effect

When solar radiation reaches the Earth’s atmosphere, some (28%) is directly reflected (returned to space) through the air, clouds and the Earth’s surface (especially bright surfaces), this is the albedo. Incident rays which were not reflected back into space are absorbed by the atmosphere (21 %) and land surface (51 %). This part of the radiation which is absorbed by the Earth generates heat (energy) which is returned in turn, particularly at night and in winter, towards the atmosphere as infrared rays: this is the blackbody radiation, which is partly absorbed by greenhouse gases, then re-emitted as heat towards the Earth, which is called greenhouse effect. Without this phenomenon, the Earth’s average temperature would be about -18° C, whereas observations show an Earth’s average temperature of about + 15 °C. Depending on the emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, which are closely related to the demographic, technologic and socioeconomic evolution of the world, global temperatures could reach + 16.5° C to 19.5 ° C (Figure 1). Constituents of the atmosphere further contributing to the phenomenon of greenhouse effect include water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane and nitrous oxide

Figure 1 Greenhouse effect and average temperature across the globe

Box 2: Sources and lifetime of the main greenhouse gases

Carbon dioxide is the most abundant greenhouse gas emissions. It comes mainly from the use of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, charcoal), certain industrial activities (cement and chemical industries), deforestation and certain agricultural practices) (Figures 2 and 3). Its growth rate is 0.4 % per year on average and its lifetime in the atmosphere is 150 and 200 years. Nitrous oxide comes from fertilizer application on soil in the farming sector in particular. Its growth rate is 0. 25 % per year on average and its lifetime in the atmosphere is 120 years. Methane comes mainly from decomposition or fermentation processes; digestion of ruminants; emanations from coal mines; landfills; wastewater treatment. Its radiative power is 21 times higher than that of carbon dioxide. Its growth rate is on average 0. 6 % per year and its lifetime in the atmosphere is 12 years. Greenhouse gases are industrial gases used as refrigerants, electric insulators or conductors of heat. These are chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), hydro fluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). They have a lifespan longer than natural greenhouse gases, and efforts are underway to ban some, and/or reduce their production and use

Figure 2: Shares of different anthropogenic greenhouse gases in total emissions of 2004 (in CO2 equivalent), source IPCC, 2007

6

Figure 3: Contribution of the various sectors to total emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in 2004 (in CO2 equivalent ), Source IPCC, 2007

Given the current level of emissions of greenhouse gases and their lifetime in the atmosphere, it is very likely that global warming would continue even in the coming decades

Table 1: 10 leading contributors to greenhouse gas emissions in the world

Source : International Energy Agency (2007)

The IPCC recommended reducing greenhouse gas emissions across the entire planet by 25 to 40% by year 2020, relative to 1990 reference year chosen in the Kyoto Protocol.

Country (or region)

CO2 emissions (average 2000-04)Total Per capita

United States 5 700 19European Union 3 870 8China 3 670 3Russian Federa-tion

1 520 11

Japan 1 200 9India 1 020 1Canada 540 16South Korea 445 9Mexico 360 3Australia 350 16

Thus, the international climate negotiations held in Copenhagen in December 2009 during the COP15 included, to that end, the numerical target of limiting the rise in average global temperature to 2 °C. However, this conference failed to produce an agreement on reducing, quantitatively, greenhouse gas emissions by the biggest polluting countries (Table 1).

Concerning Africa, which is regarded as the region contributing the least to the emissions of greenhouse gases and the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, it will have to find its way into the game of international policies on mitigation and adaptation. This requires strengthening the capacity of African professionals in the field of climate governance.

Current and future trends of air temperatures globally and in Africa

The global warming is a reality in the light of current developments of temperatures observed since the 19th century. The observed temperatures show a general upward trend across the globe. The average surface temperature has risen by 0.6 ºC+ or - 0.2 ºC since 1860. The observations indicate that the 20th century probably experienced the greatest warming of all ages since 1 000 years in the Northern hemisphere. The decades 1990 and 2000 were the warmest of the 20th century (Figure 4). The years 1998, 2005, 2003 and 2002 were the warmest on record since 1861. Since 1976, the rise in temperature has been sharp, reaching 0.18°C per decade. The linear trend of warming over the last 50 years, from 1956 to 2005 (0.13° C per decade) is almost twice that of 100 years, from 1906 to 2005.

Figure 4: Temporal evolution of temperature anomalies on the Earth surface in Africa

7

Temperatures in West Africa and particularly in the Sahel have changed somewhat faster than the global trend, with increases ranging from 0.2°C to 0.8°C per decade since the late 1970s in the Sahel-Saharan, Sahelian and Sudanian zones (ECOWAS-SWAC/OECD/CILSS, 2008). The observed increase is however more important on minimum temperatures (up to +1°C) than maximum ones (up to + 0.5°C). According to observations on the climate, it appears that Africa has suffered a rise in temperatures of 0.6 to 0.7 °C, faster than the global average. The example of the station of Tillabery, in the Sahelian zone of Niger, constitutes a perfect illustration of this. Since 1980, higher temperatures have increased markedly and have become continuous. The current period 1990 -2007 has been particularly hot (Figure 5). Temperature differences between the current period and the period 1951-1979 have reached + 0,99 °C for average temperatures. The rise in minimum temperatures is +1. 44 °C against +0.53 °C for maximum temperatures (not showed).

In addition, this region could experience a warming of about 3 to 6 °C by 2100 according to the emission scenarios, despite its marginal contribution to GHG emissions.

The IPCC (2007) confirms these perspectives on the continent. In the 21st century, global warming will be greatest in Africa than in the rest of the world. The rise in average temperatures between 1980/99 and 2080/99 will range between 3 and 4°C over the entire continent, i.e., 1.5 times higher than global. This rise would be within +3°C in the coastal areas (Senegal, Guinea Bissau). It will be higher (+ 4°C) in Continental Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger).

Figure 6: Temperature and rainfall trends in Africa between 1980/1999 and 2080/2099

8

Figure 5: Inter-annual evolution of annual average temperature anomalies at Tillabery (Niger) from 1951-2008 compared to the normal period 1961-1990

Global warming combined with increased variability of rainfall and the increase in extreme events (droughts, flooding) has significant impacts on natural and human systems. Without appropriate coping measures, the agro-silvo-pastoral and fishery systems will be severely weakened.

Return of heavy downpours and floods in a context of changing climate

by Dr. Benoît SARR, AGRHYMET Regional Centre

After the droughts of the 70s and 80s, the West African countries, especially those in the Sahel, are suffering today the effects of heavy rains and devastating floods. Damage and losses related to these extreme hydro climatic events have been evaluated at several hundreds of billions of Francs. In addition, these events have undermined human systems (human and material losses), farming systems (crops submerged) and economic infrastructure (roads, bridges, dams destroyed), which impedes the availability, accessibility, and supply of food and results in higher market prices. They were also the source of very important psychological impacts, particularly on the most vulnerable groups of people. These events could intensify and become more frequent in this context of changing climate.

More than 80 to 90 % of natural disasters are due to hydro climatic events such as droughts, heavy downpours, and floods (WMO 2006). And yet, according to the IPCC (2007), it is established very likely (probability >90) that heavy precipitation events, devastating floods and heat waves will continue to become more frequent worldwide. These events will become more intense and particularly more variable from one year to another. The extreme rainfall associated partly with the increase in atmospheric water vapour, will increase with the climate change, thus enhancing the condensation-rainfall-runoff cycle. We can therefore expect, over the coming years, contrasting situations in which drought alternates with excess rainfall. The result would be an increase in hydro climatic disasters (IUCN, 2004). Thus, the observations have shown significant change to the system of extreme weather events over the last 50 years, in terms of frequency and intensity.So, significant increases in heavy rainfall events accompanied by storms were observed worldwide. The surface area affected by drought has increased since the 70s. Studies carried out by CRED/ UNISDR (2006) have shown growing and rapid change in the number of natural disasters all over the world. This number increased from 50 in 1975, to 200 in 2000 to over 350 in 2005.

A titre d’exemple, l’OMM avait ainsi considéré l’année 2007 comme celle des extrêmes en raison des climats For example, the WMO had thus considered 2007 as a year of extreme events because of the extreme climates recorded all over the world. Indeed, in 2007 many parts of the world experienced extreme weather events, with heat waves, and many cases of cyclones and storms. Moreover, the number of extremely wet seasons is expected to increase from once every twenty years in the late 20th century to once every five years in the next century (Christensen, et al. 2007). Thus, according to FAO (2007) “the possibility that the recent floods in the Sahel and in West Africa in general may be the consequence of climate change” must be taken seriously.West Africa has not been spared by these events. An exponential increase in the number of floods resulting from heavy rains has been observed. The number of events increased on average from less than 2 per year before 1990 to more than 8 or 12 on average per year during the 2000s.

9

According to WFP (2007), ”the floods in Africa in 2007 that stretched from Mauritania in the West to Kenya in the East” are considered the worst in decades. More than one million and a half people have been affected, including more than 600,000 in West Africa. Thus, in some CILSS and ECOWAS countries, namely Burkina Faso, Senegal, Mali, Niger, Mauritania, Togo, Benin, etc., floods have caused important damage to economic infrastructure (bridges, roads, railways) and other essential goods to provide health services and ensure delivery of relief.

In general, the costs of these floods – estimated at several billion dollars – clearly exceed, in some cases, the costs of adaptation. For example, between 2000 and2008, the amounts of damage due to flooding in the CILSS zone were estimated between US$ 39 and 80 billion respectively for the lower and higher case scenarios (Table 1).

Table 1: Estimated costs of damage in US$ (*1000) per country in the CILSS zone (2000-2008)

Examples of recent extreme hydro climatic events in the CILSS/ECOWAS zone and their consequences

2005: Between 16 and 22 August, Dakar recorded 367 mm of rain, more than half the average annual cumulative rainfall. This has led to flooding of many homes in the suburbs and that of the National Highway 1.

2007: Worst floods in West Africa for over 30 years with 33 deaths in Burkina Faso, 23 in North Togo, 46 000 displaced including 26 000 in Burkina Faso and 14 000 in Togo. In Burkina Faso, 17 689 ha of crops flooded, loss of production of about 13 500 tonnes, 55 dams whose dykes gave way.

2008: The heavy rains in the region of the Hauts Plateaux in Central Togo have destroyed thousands of arable land, and over 30 000 houses and 6 dams, over 10 000 displaced, 20 deaths, 68 bridges collapsed, including that of the National Highway 1 at Amakpapé.Benin: destruction of 25 000 ha of food crops and 1204 ha cotton field, about 53 674 farmers affected. Damage estimated at F CFA 9. 4 billion.

2009: Heavy downpours and floods in Burkina Faso: Ouagadougou and its environs which registered in 2009, between September 1st and 2nd, a cumulative rainfall of 263 mm. These rains are 130 % higher than the 90th percentile (extreme rain) causing over 150 000 homeless and 8 deaths, and the destruction of several bridges; over 9300 ha of crops were flooded countrywide.

Adapted by Sarr B. 2009

CILSS country Minimal scenario Maximal scenario

Burkina Faso 7 363 935 15 114 902

Guinée Bissau 78 750 161 639

Mali 5 860 665 12 029 353

Niger 8 545 725 17 540 594

Senegal 11 955 105 24 538 543

Mauritanie 5 568 255 11 429 165

Gambie 42 750 87 747

Total 39 415 185 80 901 943

Source : DPC, Senegal, 2009 (data from Cap Vert and chad not avalaible)

10

In addition, the socioeconomic, health and psychological impacts on more vulnerable groups are significant. Finally, these events contribute to the disruptions of markets (availability and accessibility, price increase) and consequently to increase food insecurity, conflict and climatic migrations.

In the absence of adaptation and/or vulnerability mitigation measures in the agricultural sector, much of the population would be exposed to situations of food insecurity due to these extreme events.To mitigate vulnerability of natural and human systems vis-à-vis these extreme events, it is necessary to:

- develop systems for forecasting, prevention and management of natural disasters by supporting regional climate and water centres for the development of forecasting models, methods based on high resolution remote sensing to monitor extreme events and undertake analyses on the probability of occurrence of these events, - improve regional and national information systems for the timely warnings of the population in case of disaster risk;- consolidate initiatives for disaster risks mitigation through preparedness and sensitization of the populations,- conduct studies on new techniques of civil engineering and on quality construction materials for an adaptation of infrastructure to extreme events.

These actions are to be carried out by national and regional centres on climate and water resource monitoring, meteorological services, universities, regional and national platforms on natural disaster risk mitigation, civil protection departments, civil society, NGOs, the populations, and the United Nations Systems (WFP, OCHA, UN ISDR, FAO, UNDP, WMO), etc.

11

Floods in Ouagadougou (september 2009)

Today, the issue of climate change is a source of concern to everyone, including scientists and policymakers who, in recent years, have been organizing endless high-level meetings in their efforts to provide answers to this problem which affects the lives of the people.

Climate governance

Internationally, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in New York on May 9, 1992. The convention is a non-binding treaty which commits the Parties to cooperate together to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions to a level that does not threaten the global climate. It was later supplemented by the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 to establish concrete and binding reduction of emissions of six (6) key greenhouse gases. Finding gaps in the scientific evidence of climate change, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) set up in 1988, the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to collect and evaluate scientific data on the subject. The IPCC acts as supreme body for the governance of global science on the climate. In addition to the political, institutional and scientific Governance of the climate, the international community also set up several funding mechanisms such as the Global Environment Facility, the Adaptation Fund and the Carbon Fund.

The Climate Summit held from 7 to 18 December 2009 in Copenhagen (Denmark) had been announced by many climate change experts as a turning point because it will lead to binding decisions to urge countries to make efforts towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But, for many institutions, such as the Agence de l’Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’Energie (Environmental and Water Management Agency) (ADEME, 2010), the commitments made in terms of reducing GHG emissions in Copenhagen are not sufficient. Those of China and the United States (the 2 biggest emitters of GHG) were eagerly expected. But they refused to be imposed emission quotas, thereby avoiding any binding target.The United States, which emits almost a quarter of global GHG, had not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. In Copenhagen, they pledged to reduce their CO2 emissions by 17 % by 2020 compared to 2005. This is the first reduction of the country’s history. This commitment must still be validated by the US Congress to be implemented.China, one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the world, proposed to reduce from 40 to 45% its

12

by Papa Oumar DIEYE, AGRHYMET Regional Centre

carbon intensity (amount of CO2 emitted per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2020 compared to 2005. But, given its growth, this effort could mean a doubling of Chinese emissions in 2020 compared to 2005. In addition, China made this commitment subject to the rich countries helping developing countries to implement verification measures under the agreement. The European Union, meanwhile, has the ambition to set a 30% reduction target of GHG emissions by 2020 compared to 1990 (against 20% fixed in the Kyoto Protocol).

At the national and West African sub-regional level, all the countries have signed and ratified these legal instruments for the international governance of climate. This support for the cause of climate resulted in the establishment, in each country, of inter-ministerial and integrating institutional frameworks (national committees on climate change, national sustainable development councils, etc.) for a better understanding and conduct of activities on climate change. Just like the other large geo-strategic and business interest groupings in the world, the West Africa sub-region has established political, economic and monetary integration bodies such as ECOWAS and UEMOA/WAEMU, river basin organisations like ABN, VVA, OMVS, and specialized technical institutions like CILSS, etc. The impacts of climate change being trans-national, these organisations have started working together for many years towards taking into consideration the regional and sub-regional dimension of climate change. This led to the formation of the Group of African negotiators, the establishment, by the African Union, of the meeting of Ministers of Environment, the organisation of consultations at the sub-regional level etc., for the definition of an appropriate sub-regional institutional framework.

13

The regional dimension of climate change

It should be remembered that only countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. By signing and ratifying these legal texts on international climate governance, these countries have committed to working together to stabilize, mitigate or terminate the process of disturbance of the climatic system. . This awareness, which has started since the Rio Conference in 1992 is trying to mobilize and achieve consensus over the need to fight together against the global warming..

by Dr. Hubert N’DJAFA OUAGA, AGRHYMET

Regional Centre

The creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) aims at producing reliable scientific information on global climate. The various reports published by this international scientific body on climate have then shown that, beyond the countries, there is an urgent need to also understand and act at the regional and sub-regional levels, like in sub-Saharan Africa or in the Sahel, also considered as the region most vulnerable to climate change phenomena. Under the efforts of the Parties to the Convention, we note the production (more or less regular) of information on climate change through the development of National Communications. These data are valuable benchmarks on the level of contribution of each country to greenhouse gas emissions. These countries also committed themselves to undertake concrete actions (adaptation/mitigation) against the negative effects of climate change

14

through funding mechanisms provided for that purpose. The National Action Programmes for Adaptation (NAPA) is a perfect illustration thereof. Today, virtually all ECOWAS and CILSS countries have their NAPA, but none has had a rocky start running, whereas they are plans for priority and immediate adaptation actions.Climate change knows no borders; so, the IPCC is increasingly recommending taking also its regional or sub-regional dimension into consideration. Therefore, this dimension of climate change began to be taken into account. The numerous appeals to the intergovernmental organisations in the sub-region are set to reflect this new reality for managing climatic risk. In the West Africa sub-region, the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) - created in 1973 and composed of nine (9) countries - is a form of regional adaptation to cope with consequences of the major drought of the early 70s. So, climate is behind the creation of CILSS. It is therefore natural that the organisation took an early interest in the issue of climate change by participating, in a united front, in the Rio Conference in 1992 and obtaining from the COP8 in New Dehli (India) in 2002, an observer status, Fortified by this status, CILSS is firmly committed to taking the regional dimension of climate change into account. So, the CILSS sought and obtained funding from the Canadian Government through the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) for the regional Project entitled: “Capacity Building for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Sahel”. Today, this experience has been spreading, as evidenced by the numerous sub-regional initiatives underway on climate change in West Africa. These initiatives include the development process of the sub-regional action plan to reduce vulnerability to climate change in West Africa and Chad on climate change (SRAP-RV-WA).

West Africa and Chad develop a sub-regional action plan to reduce vulnerability to climate change (SRAP-RV-WA)

Developing the SRAP-RV-WA is an expression of the will of participants in the International Conference on the reduction of vulnerability of natural, economic and social systems to climate change in West Africa, held from 24 to 27 January 2007 in Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso), through its pertinent recommendation n°4. The recommendation states that: ”CILSS, in collaboration with ACMAD, ECOWAS and UNECA, will establish a working group that will be responsible for developing a sub-regional action plan to reduce vulnerability of natural, economic and social systems to climate change in West Africa and Chad. ECOWAS and CILSS will take measures deemed necessary for the adoption of the plan by the Heads of State”.

At the end of this conference, the institutions involved signed a memorandum of understanding defining the terms and spheres of responsibility for the implementation of this recommendation. United within this legal framework, they led the process up to the recruitment of a Consulting firm for the development of the SRAP-RV-WA, the draft of which is divided into two main parts:

Part 1: Overview of West Africa’s vulnerability to climate change and intervention strategies; Part 2: Strategic action plan.

Part 1 of the SRAP-RV-WA highlights the degree of vulnerability, ongoing efforts, factors and gaps limiting the fight against climate change in the sub-region. The second part of the action plan provides the broad strategic policies on which to base actions against climate change at different geographical scales. The programme’s vision is outlined as follows: “the population, economies and governments in the region are adapting continually and effectively to climate change”. The overall objective is as follows: ”At the regional level, to develop mechanisms, stakeholders and capacities needed to support governments and communities to adapt to climate change”, from which are derived the three specific operational objectives below:

• Regional institutions provide political, technical and financial support to the States and economies in their process of adaptation to climate change;• National stakeholders are adopting harmonized and coordinated approaches to adapt to climate change;• Climate change is integrated into regional and international priority investments, programmes and projects.

15

This ambitious programme is therefore a reference framework of actions for a concerted struggle of the sub-region against the adverse effects of climate change. It is meant to be an integrative framework which is open to any funding initiative (bilateral or multilateral) in the sub-region. The operationalization of the SRAP-RV-WA will be based on the principle of subsidiarity according to predefined scales with appropriate institutional framework. The SRAP-RV-WA will be submitted for adoption at a meeting of ECOWAS Ministers, preceded by that of Experts. Adoption of the SRAP-RV-WA by the ECOWAS authorities is a strong signal of the sub-region addressed to the international community as a true indicator of its commitment. After its implementation, the sub-region could claim to contribute significantly to global efforts to safeguard the climate system alongside the international community.

16

Climate variability and change in the Sahel

Climate variability and change in the Sahel

The climate of a period, as used in this analysis, refers to averages and irregular variables such as temperature, rainfall and wind. The relative importance of each of these variables depends on the region of the world considered. In the Sahel, rainfall is by far the most decisive climate variable affecting the lives of people; some authors consider that this variable alone can determine the evolution of the environment in this region of the world. Rainfall can therefore be regarded as the most appropriate indicator to characterize or analyze climate change in the Sahel

By Dr. Abdou Ali, AGRHYMET Regional Centre

understanding the current situation by observing

Changing rainfall in the Sahel is characterized by two distinct periods, namely: the period 1950 – 1969, which was marked by a succession of wet years and the period 1970 – 1993 by the persistence of dry years. The end or not of drought in the Sahel is currently a debate within the scientific community. Some analyses conclude at the end of the phenomenon while others stress its continuity. Another aspect of the question is whether the situation being experienced by the Sahel rainfall is a manifestation of climate change or a natural variability of the phenomenon. What can we attribute this situation to? This analysis aims at contributing to the debate by making, on the basis of rainfall data for CILSS member countries centralized at the AGRHYMET Regional Centre, a diagnosis on

the current trend of rainfall in the Sahel.

Consensus on the situation before the year 1993

To determine the wet or dry character of the rainy season, we often use the standardized precipitation index (SPI). For a given year, this index is the average cumulative seasonal rainfall of available rainfall stations. Thus, the SPI indicates whether the season can be described as surplus (positive) or deficit (negative) season.An analysis of the Sahelian SPI, calculated on the basis of data from 600 stations monitored by the AGRHYMET Regional Centre, shows two distinct periods (Fig. 7 blue and pink parts). The first period,

17

from 1950 to 1969, is characterized by a persistence of wet years and the second period, from 1970 to 1993, by a persistence of over twenty dry years. The 70s mark what is commonly called the climate fracture in the Sahel. No such rainfall behaviour was observed in any other part of the world. This analysis is a consensus within the scientific community. Many international programmes have studied rainfall in the region to try to explain this phenomenon, the latest and most ambitious being the AMMA Programme (African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis). The drought observed in the Sahel during the period 1970-1993 also had no equivalent in the spatial dimension: it has hit the entire region, without exception

The current situation, a subject of controversy

Based on the analysis of Fig.7 (green part), the least we can say is that a change occurred after 1993. Three very wet years were recorded in the Sahel: 1994, 1999, and 2003. What should we infer from this? Is this the end of the drought that has batte-red the region so much? That is what the scientific debate is all about. By observing Fig. 6, we suggest to speak rather of the emergence of another mode of inter-annual variability in rainfall, characterized by sudden alternation between very wet years and very dry years, than talking about dry or wet period, in reference to the situation before 1993. The inter-annual variability in rainfall has increased with the new mode of variability, which makes it even more difficult to predict inter-annual rainfall in the Sahel.

To better understand the current situation, we carried out a zonal analysis of the region, distinguishing the Eastern part (corresponding to the Chadian part and Eastern Niger) from the Western Sahel (corresponding to the main area of Senegal and the Western part of Mali) and the central part (east-central Mali and east-central Niger). The results show that the alternation between wet and dry years, observed across the Sahel as a whole, conceals a climatological fracture between the West and the East. Drought continues in the Western part, while the East is experiencing a return of wetter conditions (Fig. 8). In this context, it is not wise to continue to consider a global index and derive an overall characteristic of rainfall for the Sahel: it is necessary to distinguish between the Eastern part and the Western part. Thus, while the trend of drought of the years 1980 and 1990 continues in the western part of the Sahel, it is ending in the eastern part. Several current climate studies are beginning to pinpoint the reasons behind these new developments. Some explain it by the westward shift of the warm focus of the Indian Ocean, which resulted in the drought area moving westward (Hagos and Cook, 2008)

Fig. 7: Sahel Rainfall Index (SRI) over the period from 1950 to 2006. The positive values show higher rainfall years than the average of the period 1950–2006 and the negative values indicate years of lower rainfall than this average.

18

The return of precipitation in the Eastern part is also observed on the isohyets map (Fig. 9). For the Eastern Sahel, there is northwards shift of the isohyets for the period 1994 – 2006 compared to those of period 1970 – 1993, when they are merged for the Western part.

Have rainy seasons become shorter?

Another recurring concern is the duration of the rainy season. Does the season start later and/or end early? To answer this question, it is necessary to compare the beginning and end of the rainy season in the current period compared to previous years. There are several definitions of the beginning or the end of the rainy season (agronomic, hydrological, and meteorological definitions). The approach considered here was to compare the average rainfall at the beginning or end of the rainy season in different periods. To do so, the average daily cumulative rainfall of wet years in the period before 1993 is compared to those of dry years. The same comparison was made for the post 1993 period. We find that for the period before 1993 (Fig. 10, left), the dry years are actually characterized by a decrease in average daily rainfall for both the beginning and the end of the season. On the other hand, for the period after 1993 (Fig. 10, right), the average seasonal cycles of wet years and dry years differ only on the end of the season. The dry seasons of the current period are thus characterized, on average, by a reduction of rainfall at the end of the season, but not necessarily at the beginning. The two curves overlap until about 15 June.

Fig. 8: Rainfall index for Western and Eastern Sahel. The values of annual indices are averages calculated on a five-year period basis to highlight the major trends.

19

Fig. 9: Comparison of isohyets over different periods: 1950 – 1969 in grey strips, 1970 – 1993 in red curves and 1994 – 2006 in blue curves.

Conclusion

This study, which is based on rainfall data collected by CILSS member countries, helped to restore some basic characteristics of the current trend in rainfall in the Sahel.

From 1970 onwards, a persistent drought occurred in the Sahel. However, after 1993, another mode of variability seems to develop within the Sahelian rainfall. The inter-annual evolution, viewed across the entire region, has shown a strong alternation between very wet years and very dry years. This new mode of variability makes it even more difficult to make inter-annual predictions and necessitates new adaptation strategies. It is clear from the analysis it does not seem appropriate to express the current rainfall regime in the Sahel in terms of end of drought or not, as there is no single trend. Two different rainfall trends are identified for the current period. The tendency to drought continues in the Western Sahel, while the East is experiencing gradual return to wetter conditions. The climate divide between the East and West also expresses an increase in spatial variability of rainfall. It renders ineffective the vision of a generally wet or dry Sahel. That result from data analysis should help to guide scientific research to better understand the basic physical reasons.

Are these changes a manifestation of sustained change in climate due to human action or is it just a natural climate variability? It is difficult to determine absolutely. We need to understand the causes in order to respond. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, the climate must be assessed relative to a reference period of 30 years. In that context, several statistical studies have shown that the changes recorded after the 70s are more significant compared to the 1940 – 1969 reference period. Similarly, statistical tests for detecting changes in trend have shown that the years 1970 and 1993 are years of climate failure.

According to the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change), greenhouse gas emissions are the main driver of climate change. Then, can we attribute the changes observed across the Sahel to these emissions? A scientific consensus is currently emerging to attribute these changes to the complex interaction of several factors with different scales. The role of change in ocean conditions affecting the monsoon, the role of retro-action between the atmosphere and land surface conditions or a change in the main currents of atmospheric circulation (especially West African jets) were studied. Charney (1975) was a precursor, citing the important role of change in vegetation and land use. Giannini et al. (2003) have shown that 25 to 35% of change in rainfall can be explained by the role of oceans. Indeed, the persistence of drought in the Sahel is explained by the combined effects of a warming of the inter-tropical part of oceans, particularly the equatorial zone of the Indian Ocean, and enhanced temperature gradient of the Atlantic Ocean surface. This gradient is characterized by relative warming of South Atlantic and a cooling of North Atlantic. However, several studies (Rotstayn et al. 2002), for example) have concluded that this configuration of the surface temperature of the oceans is linked to industrialization and emissions of greenhouse gases.

20

Fig.10: Average seasonal cycles of wet years and dry years for the period before 1993 and after

Impacts of climate change on food security

The impacts of climate variability and change on Sahelian ecosystems are clear. The sectors most affected are Agriculture, through land degradation, decrease in productivity of crops, livestock and water resources. Impacts on these sectors have negative effects on the populations given the fact that rural populations account for more than 80% of the entire population.

21

Impacts on agriculture

by Dr. Benoît SARR, AGRHYMET Regional Centre

Dr. Seydou TRAORE, AGRHY-MET Regional Centre

and

Following the recommendations of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) on future evolution of the global climate, the recent climate negotiations in Copenhagen, in December 2009, were focused on limiting the global warming to 2 °C. Increased temperatures and rainfall variability represent a serious threat to agricultural development in the world, including West African countries and may undermine efforts by the countries to achieve food security. Higher temperatures associated with greater variability in precipitation will cause malfunctions of agricultural seasons, disruption of the biological cycles of crops and damage to agricultural production. The simulations in the tropics using agro meteorological models enable to analyze the response of crops to rising temperatures.

Crop response to temperature

Plants are equipped with an “internal clock” that governs their development phases. Each species or variety is characterized by its temperature requirements during its various development stages. These needs are translated by the concept of amount of useful heat or degree-days. Furthermore, the optimum development and growth of plants is around 30 °C. The temperature increase will result in a reduction of the duration of development stages and total cycle. For example, a maize crop cycle will be shortened by approximately 6 days for a temperature rise of +2 °C. All things being equal, a shorter cycle, particularly in the reproductive and ripening phase, results in a reduction in the number and size of grains formed and a lower yield.

A study on the variation of maize yields in temperate and tropical zones based on several assumptions of global warming showed that in temperate zone, the temperature increase to 2°C could be beneficial for the maize yield (Figure 11). In contrast, in tropical zones, yields fall immediately when the temperature rises by 1 °C (André et al. 2003). At + 2°C, we note a fall in maize grain yields by over 5 % in tropical zones; which shows that even in a context of moderate warming of the climate, the temperate zone would be winning and the tropical zone losing.

22

Figure 11: Maize yield trends in temperate and tropical areas based on global warming (source André et al. 2003)

Recent studies of the CILSS/Agrhymet (Sarr et al. 2007, AGRHYMET, 2009) have shown that yields of crops such as millet/sorghum will fall by over 10 % in the case of temperature increase of + 2°C and insignificant rainfall variations in 2050 (Figure 12). A + 3 °C increase in temperature will result in lower crop yields of about 15 to 25 %

However, in the case of plants such as rice, whose photosynthetic system adds value to somewhat higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, a certain increase in yields of about 10 to more than 35 % could be observed over the next decades if water resources are sufficient (Sarr et al., 2007, Keita, 2009). However, in the longer term, the depressive effect of high temperatures will offset the “fertilizing effect” of CO2 and there will be reduced rice yields (Fig. 13).

Simulations conducted across the globe (FAO, 2008) show a relatively large decline (from 20 to 50 %) in yields of cereal crops throughout the Sahel, from Niger to Senegal in 2050 (Figure 14).

According to this study, yields of cereal crops will decline generally in the tropics and sub-tropics, while increases are predicted in the high latitudes. Then, developed countries in the middle latitudes would still be winners in terms of productivity.

On top of these negative physiological effects on the agricultural production potential, there are other factors also related to climate change such as the degradation of soil quality resulting from deforestation, erosion, salinization of coastal land, groundwater and surface water due to the elevation of sea level and water pollution. Furthermore, the elevation of temperature is favourable to increase the fertility and growth of crop pests and extend their geographical areas. Therefore, one would expect an expansion of arid and semi-arid zones, a reduction in area suitable for agriculture and agricultural production potential thus making access to food more difficult throughout the West Africa region, particularly the CILSS countries.

Figure 12: Rates of change in grain yields of millets/sor-ghums in Niger and Burkina Faso based on temperature increase scenarios (Source B. Sarr et al. 2007)S0_2020: 1 °C temperature increase; S0_2050: 1.5 °C temperature increase; S0_2080: 3 °C temperature increase; For the 3 case scenarios, no change in rainfall compared to the current period was considered.

Figure 14: Projected impacts of climate change on the potential of rainfed cereal production. Trends in 2050 compared to the average 1961 – 1990 (source FAO, 2008)

23

Figure 13: Projected impacts of climate change on the yields of three varieties of irrigated rice in Niger (adapted from Keita, 2009)

Adapting farming practices to climate change

It is clear that the productivity losses resulting from climate change will exacerbate the already recurrent food crises in the area. Thus, adaptation options on improving the resilience of farming systems through methods and technologies for coping with this new climate factor have been undertaken. They are:

• Redefinition of the agricultural calendars, playing on planting dates x cropping cycle of varieties to better manage the rainfall variability, • Development of varieties adapted to water stress and/or heat, • Development of agricultural water management methods: water and soil conservation and crop protection against extreme climate events, supplemental irrigation and pure irrigation from surface water (rivers, ponds, retention basins, groundwater…)• Development of irrigated agriculture and diversification and intensification• Adoption of rational management methods of soil fertility etc…These adaptation measures have been identified within the various National Action Programmes for Adaptation (NAPA).

24

Impacts on water resources

by Dr. Abou AMANI, Unesco

Dr. Abdou ALI, AGRHYMET Regional Centre

and

According to the IPCC’s fourth Assessment Report, the annual river flow and water availability are expected to diminish by 10 to 30% in some dry regions of the middle latitudes and in the dry tropics. According to the same report, the poor communities will be most vulnerable because of their limited adaptive capacity and high dependence on climate-sensitive resources such as water resources and agricultural production systems. In Africa and by year 2020, between 75 and 250 million people will be exposed to water scarcity because of climate change. Coupled with ever increasing demand, this situation will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems.

The prospect of climate change in West Africa is likely to exacerbate these challenges in terms of management of water resources and hamper the improvement of livelihoods. Two documents were produced in the sub-region and present the potential consequences and constraints and identify the strategies and concrete actions to implement in West Africa’s river basins to cope with climate change. A summary of some of these actions is presented below.

Overview of the main impacts of climate variability and change on water resources in West Africa

Several studies have been conducted on climate variability and water resources in West Africa. The studies were based on long-term hydrological observations of the past sixty years and show a significant change in the climate and hydrological regimes around the 70s, characterized by large variations, sometimes with continuous deficits for over thirty years after this period.. The major changes recorded after the 70s are as follows:

• A clear break in rainfall data and average flows observed around years 1968-1972, with 1970 as a transitional year; • A general decrease in average rainfall of about 15% to 30% according to the zone;• A beginning of the season now highly variable and spread over in time.• A decrease in surface water resources in the major river basins (40 to 60%) resulting in drastic reduction in the volume of water flowing through the major rivers, increasingly severe low-water levels with frequent pauses in water flows, deficits in the filling of most reservoirs, with such attendant socio- economic impacts as reduced level of water supplies for the cities• Intrusion of the salty tongue inside the coastal lagoons (lagoon of Cotonou, Senegal delta, etc.) and a threat to freshwater biodiversity;• A significant reduction in area of major natural wetlands both on the continent and the coastal areas with a consequent reduction in fish production;• For most aquifers, a lower level reduces groundwater in the major rivers, with saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers.

25

There are few studies on the future impact of climate change in West Africa from 2025 to 2050. The few studies conducted show large uncertainties in current models with sometimes very sharp differences in the projections. Research efforts are still needed in this area. However, it is accepted by the international scientific community that extreme hydrological events (droughts and floods) will increase in the future. Even if we don’t yet know the magnitude of the future changes, we should expect, for the sub-region, an increase in the variability of water resources due to climate change; hence the need to act now.

Focus on the impact of climate change on river basins of Niger and Lake Chad

26

Niger River and Lake Chad are emblematic references which help to understand the impact of current climate variability on water resources in the Sahel. The Niger basin, stretching from Chad to Guinea, helps to illustrate the evolution of water resources in relation to climate change in the Sahel. Similarly, Lake Chad, which is the major water body in the eastern part of the region, plays a key role in the Sahel. Changing flows in the Niger basin, as well as the water level of Lake Chad are thus analyzed in this section.

Inter-annual evolution: the index of the annual module of the Niger river at Koulikoro (Mali) shows that the water flow deficits continue in the Western part of the basin (Fig. 15-a). Since 1971, there has been only one year (1999) when flows were above the inter-annual average of period 1905 – 2006. In contrast, some stations in the South-East Basin, such as Lokoja, in Nigeria, show greater frequency of flows above the average during the current period (after 1993). As for Lake Chad, the water body has started increasing over the last years (Fig. 15-b). This evolution of water resources is consistent with that of rainfall.; which implies that the impact of climate - in terms of rainfall – is dominant for large water systems in the Sahel. However, the increase in flows in the South-East of the Niger Basin is more important than that of the rainfall. The reason for this, as discussed below, is the impact of changes in the soil surface.

Intra-seasonal variability: The flows of the Niger River in Niger are considered in this section. They are good representatives of flows of the middle basin. The hydrological regime of the Niger River in Niamey is characterized by two floods. The first flood, called local flood, comes mainly from run-off from tributaries of the right bank (especially those of the Sirba) and a flood, called Malian or Sudanian flood, coming from run-off from the Upper Basin (Guinea and Mali). The local flood occurs during the rainy season (July to September) while the Malian flood comes during the dry season (December to February). Mean hydrographs are calculated for three characteristic periods: the wet period 1950 – 1970, the dry period 1971 – 1990 and the current period 1991 – 2009.

The Malian flood continues with its downward trend that started with the major drought of the 70s. On the other hand, the local flood is resuming more importantly, with flows, surpassing even those of the wet period 1950 – 1970. This return of the local flood is due to tributary flows from the right bank (Fig. 15-e). Rainfall in this basin has not increased significantly. This improved flow is mainly due to higher run-off coefficients; which demonstrates the importance of environmental change in these basins.

In short, the current flows are characterized by a rapid increase in early season and early withdrawal at the end of season. It is therefore necessary to adopt a better strategy to respond and adapt to these changing flows. The control of water, through medium and small-sized water retention structures, is a very credible option in this regard.

Concrete actions for better knowledge and management of climate variability and change and their impacts on water resources

The multiplicity of plausible future climatic scenarios shows that what is important is the management of variability and uncertainty. This implies improving our knowledge on climate and its impacts on water resources. Concrete actions to put in place include:

• Promoting collection of meteorological data and establishment of reliable information networks and efficient management platform: case of HYCOS Projects; • Promoting research to remove uncertainties, like the AMMA Programme and the FRIEND-WCA Project, among others. Assessing vulnerability and impacts of climate change on water resources, wetlands and land degradation is essential for the implementation of effective adaptation measures; • Developing and promoting the use of decision-making tools for climate-related risk management. Because of the wide variability of climate (at all scales) within the region, the PRESAO (Seasonal Forecasting in West Africa) process established by the ACMAD-AGRHYMET-ABN consortium for the prediction of rainfall and river flows must be strengthened to improve the quality of seasonal forecasts for the sub-region. • Providing academic institutions and research institutes with technical and financial resources to strengthen research in the field of modelling processes and their impacts;• Strengthening and improving training on vulnerability assessments and adaptation measures in the water resource sector.

27

Fig.15 a. Inter-annual trends in the Niger River flows at Koulikoro and b. Inter-annual trends (1998 to 2007) of the water body of Lake Chad. c. Comparison of average hydrographs of the Niger River in Niamey d. Monthly flow index of the Niger River in Niamey. The months of June to September show a surplus compared to the average 1950 – 2007. e. Comparison of average flows of the Sirba River at the Garbey-Kourou station for the three characteristic periods.

a b

c

d

e

Concrete actions to adapt to climate change for resource management in West Africa at the basin level.

The following generic and concrete adaptation actions can be considered, based on the analysis of the situation in some basin organisations within the sub-region and elsewhere, for a given transboundary basin in West Africa:• Establishment of an adequate legal and institutional framework in each transboundary basin: . Legal status of the river, its tributaries and distributaries; . Basin organisation; . Basin Water Charter; . Environmental Code.• Setting up of infrastructures (structural and secondary) for the control and development of water resources;• Establishment of a modern monitoring network on water resources;• Establishment of a network on environmental and socioeconomic data collection;• Development of planning and forecasting tools that address climate change (database – GIS – observatories – needs/resource trend chart);• Promotion of research/development works on adaptation to climate change;• Capacity building of stakeholders at national and sub-regional levels for greater awareness on climate change and its effects; • Regional programmes to fight against invasive aquatic weeds, silting, river bank erosion, waterborne diseases; • Measures to encourage the involvement of populations (micro finance, rural electrification, fish farming, aquaculture, DWS, etc.);• Mechanism to mobilize financial partners;• Implementation of income-generating infrastructure.

Concrete actions, at policy and institutional levels, to adapt to climate change for resource management in West Africa.

The major institutional priority measures recommended to increase the adaptability of West Africa in water resource management are, amongst others: • Promote Integrated Water Resource Management. The current initiative on integrated water resource management should be promoted at all levels (local, national and regional) because it is the best way to manage depleting water resources in the region, while taking into account all related aspects. Also, the shared nature of most river basins is one of many reasons for the adoption of IWRM strategy within the sub-region. • Promote protection of wetlands; • Promote the United Nations Convention on the use of transboundary water for purposes other than navigation;• Strengthen legal and regulatory measures to preserve water quality;• Mobilize financial and human resources for effective implementation of National Plans for adaptation to climate change;• Take climate change into account in the feasibility studies of water and hydro-agricultural projects; • Urgently revisit the design standards of hydraulic structures developed in the 60s and which continue to be used with all the risks about the resilience of such structures, despite the important ecological and climate change observed in the sub-region and the prospect of future changes to come; • Take appropriate legal, regulatory and organisational action to mitigate the impacts of flooding whose extent and frequency should increase with climate change.

Capacity building at different levels of the population and stakeholders on climate change is also necessary.

28

Impacts on pastoralismAccording to the 4th International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the anthropogenic origin of global warming is well established today (IPCC, 2007). It is also established that livestock emit considerable amounts of greenhouse gases through the digestion of large ruminants or composting of livestock excreta (Blaxter and Clapperton, 1965).

Thus, livestock plays an important role in the rising tide of global warming. Each year, ruminants emit 15% of the production of methane gas released into the atmosphere (IPCC, 2001). Much of CH4 from farms is produced by ruminants (cows, sheep…). Their digestive system includes a rumen allowing microbial digestion of fodder and leading to the production of methane, then eructated by the animal. These methane emissions vary by type of animal and its diet. Thus, the dairy cow, the growing cattle, the sheep and the goat respectively produce 90, 65 and 8 Kg of methane per capita/year. As for non ruminants like the horse, the pig and poultry, they produce respectively 18, 1 and 0.1 kg methane per capita/year (Chouinard, 2004). However, it is important to note that these are measurements taken in Western intensive breeding systems, therefore in a breeding system which is different from the predominantly extensive Sahelian breeding systems.

by Issa GARBA, expert in pastoralism, AGRHYMET

Regional Centre

Methane also comes from manure and slurry composed of dung. As any organic matter, these products are decomposed by micro organisms: when manure is piled, the decomposition takes place in a low oxygen environment, thus producing a large amount of methane; when manure is spread on the ground, the decomposition is effected by contact with the air and most of carbon of the organic matter is decomposed into carbon dioxide CO2 (INRA, 2009).Furthermore, the variation in rainfall patterns has a negative impact on the environment in general and grazed ecosystems in particular. The decrease in rainfall causes a problem of forage production and a lack of water for livestock. In addition, the frequency of extreme events such as severe droughts will have many negative impacts on the spatiotemporal dynamics of ponds, which occupy a strategic place in the Sahel in pastoral societies. They are critical in the definition of transhumance routes and camp sites for pastors, and they provide a leadership role in the ecosystem balance.Pastoralism will be also affected by the effects of climate change due to declining production from pastures in arid and semi-arid West Africa. This was the case of the 2008/2009 cropping season; because of the high spatial and temporal variability of rainfall, it was observed in the countries of the Atlantic front (Senegal, Mauritania) that fodder production had shown a large surplus, while in the other Sahel countries (Niger, Chad) the result was negative (Figure 16).

Figure 16: Fodder production potentials for the season 2008/2009 in the Sahel countries

29

Satellite monitoring of the rainy season on the crop and pasture conditions has shown that the 2009 rainy season was characterized by an upswing in Senegal, Mauritania, in western Mali and a major part of Burkina Faso, with good fodder production confirmed by the joint CILSS-FAO-FEWS NET assessment mission of October and November 2009. However, the situation is very deficient in Niger and deficient in Chad. For example, fodder deficit in Niger is estimated at more than 16 million tonnes. This situation has led to sizeable transhumance, characterized by massive movement of livestock to the coastal areas.All these factors contribute to exacerbate conflicts between farmers and pastoralists. Moreover, this new climatic environment would be conducive to the outbreak of climate-sensitive animal diseases. A study of Seo and Mendelsohn (2006) has however shown that high temperatures would not affect small farmers raising goats because of their resistance to heat.

30

Farmers’ perceptions of climate vulnerability and change

The impacts of climate variability on the eco-social systems of the Sahel sub-region are clear. The sectors most affected are Agriculture, through land degradation, livestock due to the reduction of vegetation cover and water resources. Impacts on these sectors have significant negative consequences on the populations taking into account the fact that the rural people make up 80% of the population, with agriculture and livestock as the main development activities.

According to Burton, Huq et al., 2002; IPCC a. 2001, adaptation involves an adjustment within a human system, in response to climatic stimuli or their present or future effects, including climate variability and extreme events. Thus, adaptation is a process that is rooted in socialization, policy and social learning, and is expressed through mechanisms and decisions to cope with climatic stress (Ader and kelly, 1999). Therefore, it is not possible to implement an adaptation policy without taking into account the social context that surrounds the local knowledge orlocal know-how.

Through the implementation of five (5) pilot projects of the “Capacity Building for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Sahel” Project carried out by AGRHYMET/CILSS on CIDA financing, surveys on the pathways for adaptation of the populations to climate change have been conducted on the issue of adaptation related to agriculture, pastoralism and water resources. We present hereafter some results of these studies, which illustrate the perceptions and practices regarding adaptation to climate variability and change.

by Dr Hubert N’DJAFA OUAGA, AGRHYMET Regional Centre

31

People’s perception of the vulnerability and impacts of climate variability and change

The results of the general survey on the local people’s pathways for adaptation have helped highlight the perceptions and practices of local communities as regards adaptation. The global assessment of climate change by the populations is diverse and varied. Thus, changes in the physical and biological environmental observed by the populations date back to the major droughts of 1973-74 and 1983-84 which particularly marked and undermined the “Eco-socio system of the Sahel area”. These changes occur on the biophysical and agro-biological level on the one hand, and on the social level on the other hand. On the biophysical and agro-biological levelChanges are manifested by severe thunderstorms, erratic rainfall, disturbance in the duration of the different seasons of the year, planting periods, disappearance of temporary water points, degradation of plant resources, gradual erosion of biodiversity, recurrent droughts, declining yields, change in the forage system, significant changes in the physiognomy of the landscape and loss of wildlife.

On the social levelThe impacts are felt at the level of household poverty, erosion of solidarity and social fabric, the loss of trust and mutual distrust between and within communities.Climate uncertainties have some impact on the dynamics of farming systems. When faced with climatic hazards, the farmers react to preserve and maintain their livelihoods. Thus appeared practices to sustain and maintain production systems in the areas of environment, land tenure security, crop and animal production, organisation and community management of natural resources etc. To do this, the populations resort to endogenous strategies or to strategies introduced by the technical services and development projects.

32

Local adaptation practices

Agricultural production sector

Farmers develop several coping strategies to address risks associated with climate variability (drought, winds, crop pests etc.) that result in a decrease in agricultural and forage production. These coping strategies include those relating to the control of farmland degradation, management of soil fertility, crop diversification, animal production and sale of livestock, crop pest management, development of income-generating activities, rural exodus, differential exploitation of space, etc.

Animal production sector

As climatic hazards intensify, transhumance of large amplitudes tends to disappear to make room for nomadism of proximity and localized mobility is becoming more frequent. In Niger, localized mobility in time and space was observed on the plateaus of the Department of Keita. In this area, sedentary pastors are developing this strategy of localized mobility.

by Hubert N’DJAFA OUAGA, AGRHYMET Regional Centre

33

This strategy helps avoid conflicts with indigenous farmers and creates conditions of peaceful coexistence between rural communities. Increasingly, we witness strengthening of surveillance of space and animals, herd re-composition, de-stocking, a redefinition of the terms of grazing contracts and fodder stockpiling, improved zoo technical performance through animal fattening and finally, , pasture planting (photo2)

In short, farmers have a good reading of the manifestations of climate variability and change. To that end, they develop strategies to counter these climatic hazards. The question one may ask is: will these strategies be enough to cope with extreme climate events?. Hence the need to properly assess the impacts of climate change in order to suggest culturally, socially and economically based strategies.

Designing a half moon at Sandoube Kare, a site for the Fakara pilot project (Niger), 2005

Pasture seeding at Kajiki – Bouza, a site for the Tahoua pilot project (Niger), 2005

34

Focus on the “ Capacity Building for adaptation to Climate Change in the Sahel ” Project

With funding from the Canadian International Development Agency, CILSS through the AGRHYMET Regional Centre has been implementing since 2002, the project on: “Capacity Building for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Sahel”. THE MAIN EFFECT EXPECTED FROM THE PROJECT IS TO EVENTUALLY REDUCE THE VULNERABILITY OF THE SAHELIAN POPULATION vis-à-vis the adverse effects of climate variability and change. The overall objective is to build the capacities of the AGRHYMET Regional Centre (ARC), to promote and develop the capacities of the countries and populations and to put in place, through a participatory approach, pilot actions for adaptation in the fields of integrated water resource management, pastoralism and soil fertility. AGRHYMET is supported, in this project, by national implementing agencies, Environment Canada and the University of Quebec at Montreal. After the execution of this project: i) the ARC regional thematic databases have been updated and their management improved; ii) knowledge about agricultural productions and surface water resources have been updated;iii) professionals from CILSS member countries have been provided training in study methodologies on climate change (impacts, vulnerability, adaptation strategies); iv) impacts of climate change on water resources and agricultural production have been assessed; v) pilot adaptation projects have been implemented through participatory approach in the area of integrated water resource management, pastoralism and soil fertility in close collaboration with the rural communities. The pilot projects have helped achieve better understanding, across the region, of the various impacts and measures put in place vis-à-vis past climate variability and then identify coping strategies that can be easily implemented by the communities themselves.

35

This component which is part and parcel of the Project on: “Capacity Building for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Sahel” actually began in late 2003. It consists of five (5) pilot projects based in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger (cf. Map below).

These pilot projects address the following issues:

In Burkina Faso:• Soil fertility management in a context of climate change on the central plateau of Burkina Faso;• Adaptation to climate change for the hydrological system of Sahelian rivers and watersheds of their tributaries: the Sirba river as an example in Burkina Faso

In Niger:• Impact of climate change on pasture management in the Sahel and the relationship between pastoralists and farmers in Tahoua (Niger);• Community management of grazing areas in a Sahelian and Sudano-Sahelian zone (CMG) in Fakara (Niger)

In Mali :• Adaptation to climate change in the Central Delta of the Niger River in Mali

The implementation strategy is based on synergy of action between: Researchers – developers – Farmers. The Table below summarizes all the implementing agencies involved in the execution of the pilot projects.

36

PILOT PROJECT AND IMPLEMENTING AGENCY

CENTRAL PLATEAU

1. Environmental and Agricultural Research Institute (INERA), scientific coordinator

2. Provincial Directorate of Agriculture, Water and Fishery Resources of Zondoma (DPAHRH)

3. Zandoma Inter Union of Naam Groups

4. Hydrogeology laboratory of the University of Ouagadougou, scientific coordinator

5. Directorate General of Water Resources Inventory (DGIRH)

6. Provincial Directorate of Agriculture, Water and Fishery Resources of Namentenga (DPA-HRH)7. Directorate of water resources (DRE) of Niger

CENTRAL DELTA

8. Institute of Rural Economy (IER) Mopti, scientific coordinator

9. Regional Directorate in Support of Rural Communities (DRAMR)

10. Regional Directorate of Hydraulics and Energy (DRHE)

11. Mopti Fishing Operation (OPM)

12 Mopti Rice Office (ORM)

TAHOUA

13. AGRHYMET Regional Centre, scientific coordinator

14. Cooperation for the Development of Emerging Countries (COSPE)

15. Union of Pastoralists/Farmers/Extension Workers/ Associations for the Promotion of Mutual Assistance to Local Initiatives in Pastoral Areas, in short (UEP/APEL-PZ)16. Regional Directorate of Agriculture Development (DRDA)

17. Regional Directorate of Animal Resources (DRRA)

I8. National Agronomic Research Institute in Niger (INRAN)

19. Abdou Moumouni University of Niamey

20. International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)

FAKARA

21. International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropic (ICRISAT), scientific coor-dinator

OTHER PARTNERS

22. ARC Methods and Applications Unit (MAU)

23. ARC Regional Database and Software Engineering Unit – Communication and Public Rela-tions Unit 24. ARC Natural Resource Management Unit

25. University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM)

26. Sahelian Consultants

37

The mobilisation of Canadian expertise has been effective through the Chair of Studies of Urban Ecosystems of the University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM) and Environment Canada for the support to the component on the comprehensive survey of farmers’ strategies (pathways) for coping with climate change.

Main results

• A comprehensive survey (over 500 survey forms) on pathways for adaptation on the five (5) pilot projects allowed creating a database in Access, and transferred under NVIVO for the qualitative analysis and under SPSS for the quantitative analysis. • Inventory of local techniques for water and soil conservation and soil fertility management and establishment of demonstration sites in collaboration with the populations for agro-pastoral production;• Quantitative and qualitative Inventory of water resources in the watershed of the Sirba river;• Hydrological modelling of the Sirba watershed;• Diachronic mapping of land use of all sites;• Implementation of many sectoral studies;• Development of self-training manual on the UNFCCC and the protocol of Kyoto;• Establishment of the Information System on pilot projects;• Establishment of cooperation frameworks between and amongst stakeholders;• A documentary film on the pilot projects in Burkina and Niger;• Progressive monitoring-evaluation of pilot projects by CIDA;

38

Zoom on the African Monitoring of Environment for Sustainable Development (AMESD) Programme. ECOWAS theme: Water Management for Crop and Rangeland management (An African initiative to ensure appropriate and sustainable use of natural resources)

The overall objective of this programme is to improve environmental monitoring for better natural resource management in the ECOWAS area (including Mauritania and Chad) to reduce poverty in one of the poorest areas of the planet.

More specifically, the aim is to implement and execute the AMESD Programme in West Africa to improve the capacity of the AGRHYMET Regional Centre (ARC) and other national bodies of the ECOWAS region (including Mauritania and Chad) involved in environmental management, to better use Earth observation data for better water management and more efficient management of crops and livestock.

Target groupsECOWAS decision-makers and heads of regional and national institutions and bodies, that have the mandate of monitoring and managing environmental resources such as water, agriculture and livestock, as well as heads of structures involved in sectors related to the environment, such as disaster management.

BeneficiariesThe ultimate beneficiaries are the populations of the region, who will benefit from more effective and efficient decisions taken through the information produced by the AMESD ECOWAS Programme. Particular attention will be paid to the most vulnerable populations living in rural and forested areas and to groups most exposed to natural hazards. The Programme will contribute to appropriate and sustainable use of natural resources and therefore, to more social and economic development and poverty reduction.

Expected results• Information products and services to improve the quantity and quality of information for environmental monitoring are developed within the ARC • Access to data from earth observation of low and medium resolution in the ECOWAS countries through the establishment of a database and its

dissemination via the EUMETCast network and/or Internet is improved• ECOWAS decision-makers are informed and sensitized in the use of Earth observation data in making decisions on environmental management• The capacity of AMESD partners in the ECOWAS region (+ Mauritania and Chad) as regards operational access and use of data from earth observation for environmental management is increased; these partners include institutions particularly active in the region in the field of environmental monitoring as well as national technical services.

Main activities• Creation of a database/information products within the ARC• Establishment of information services for the dissemination of information products via the EUMETCast network and the Internet• Implementation of adaptation/validation schemes of information products geared to the West African context• Organisation of meetings for the information/sensitisation of decision- makers on the AMESD Programme’s products and actions• Publishing and distribution of newsletters and publications on the state of the environment based on AMESD products• Training of ARC and key regional institutions’ staff working in environmental monitoring in the use of satellite data• Organisation of training/information workshops on AMESD products in all ECOWAS countries • Training of technicians from government technical departments in the management of data from the EUMETCast network and use of AMESD products

39

AdvertisementA Master’s degree in Climate Change and Sustainable Development

The AGRHYMET Regional Centre (ARC), a specialized institution of the Permanent Inter-state Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), is a centre of excellence for training in agro-meteorology, hydrology, and crop protection applied to food security, natural resource management, and agricultural water management. ARC is also a WMO regional training centre, a member of AUF and its diplomas are recognized by CAMES. Its curricula are regularly reviewed by a Scientific and Educational Board composed of eminent scholars and teachers from the North and the South.From 1975 to date, the ARC has trained more than 1000 senior professional staff from and outside CILSS countries (Master students, engineers, senior technicians).

CILSS vision on training issuesCILSS vision 2020 on the consequences of climate change in the Sahel and in West Africa is that climate change may accelerate the phenomenon of droughts and floods, leading to reduction of water resources, declining agricultural yields, and increased prevalence of crop diseases, etc.. This situation may exacerbate food insecurity and poverty.Therefore, climate change may be considered as a serious and long-term issue whose effects are not limited to just an environmental problem today, but a socio-economic development and sustainable development issue.

Objective of the Master’s programmeThe aim is to train senior executives who will be able, first, to use and capitalize on knowledge in climate science for studies of risk and vulnerability, impact, adaptation and mitigation of climate change (CC) and secondly to integrate climate change into action plans and regional, national and local development strategies.

Target groupThe target group will consist of executive staff from the CILSS/ECOWAS zone who are working and have a professional experience in

the fields of environment, meteorology, agriculture, water resources, forestry, energy, etc. And students holding a master’s degree (maîtrise) or any other diploma in disciplines related to environment

Organisation of the Master’s programmeThe programme lasts 12 months and consists of:5 compulsory modules:

- Module 1: Global climate governance (2 weeks)- Module 2: Science of climate variability and change (7 weeks)- Module 3: Vulnerability, impact and adaptation of natural and human systems to CC (7 weeks)- Module 4: Communication, management (3 weeks)- Module 5: Climate change and sustainable development (7 weeks)- Module 6: End-of-study dissertation (6 months) preferably in the countries of origin

Supervision of the Master’s ProgrammeSupervision will be provided by experts of the Agrhymet Regional Centre, experts from the platform of institutions operating in the sector of environment and Meteorology in Niamey (PIREM), university teachers, executive staff from the Ministries of Environment, Agriculture, professional staff from the United Nations System, the private sector, and NGOs, etc.

FundingFunding is sought from CILSS financial and technical partners

Rentrée: 11 octobre 2010

ContactDirector General AGRHYMET CentreB.P. 11011, Niamey, NigerTel: +227 20 31 53 16; Fax: +227 20 31 54 35 E-Mail: admin@agrhymet.ne , e.sarr@agrhymet.neWeb Site: http://www.agrhymet.ne

Bibliographical references

AGRHYMET, 2009 : Proceedings of the workshop on the results of the “Capacity Building for Adaptation to Climate Change in the Sahel” Project. Ouagadougou, 2-4 February 2009

André J. C. Cloppet E. 2003. Quel climat fera t’il demain. Agrobiosciences, Universités 18 p

CEDEAO-Club /Sahel/OCDE/CILSS. 2008. Climate and Climate Change. The Atlas on Regional Integration in West Africa. Environment Series. Available at: « www.atlas-westafrica.org».

ENDA, UNESCO, ESI et NCAP, 2007: adaptation aux changements climatiques et Gestion des ressources en Eau en Afrique de l’Ouest ; Rapport de synthèse. WRITESHOP, 21-24 February 2007. Dakar. Senegal.

FAO, 2008. Food Climate E-newsletter, Dec.14 p

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 p.

Keita, C. O, 2009: Impacts potentiels du changement climatique sur la riziculture dans la vallée du bassin du Niger moyen. Cas du périmètre de Saga. Mémoire de fin du cycle Mastère en Gestion concerté des ressources naturelles, option GIRE. Centre Régional, AGRHYMET, Niamey, Niger.

Niasse, M., N, A. Afouda, A.Amani, 2004: Réduire la vulnérabilité de l’Afrique de l’ouest aux impacts du climat sur les ressources en eau, les zones humides et la désertification. Eléments de stratégie régionale de préparation et d’adaptation. UICN, gland, Suisse et Cambridge, Royaume Uni. XVIII + 71 pp.

N’Djafa O. H, 2005 : Rapport synthèse de l’enquête générale sur les itinéraires d’adaptation des populations locales à la variabilité et aux changements climatiques conduite par AGRHYMET and UQAM, Niamey 2005 13 pages.

Sarr B. Traoré S. Salack S. 2007. Évaluation de l’incidence des changements climatiques sur les rendements des cultures céréalières en Afrique soudano-sahélienne. Agrhymet, Regional Centre CILSS, Niamey.

UNFCCC. 2008. Index of NAPA Projects by Country available at: «http://unfccc.int/adaptation/least_developed_countries_portal/napa_project_database/items/4583.php. National Action Plans for Adaptation (NAPA) of 7 UEMOA member countries, excluding Côte d’Ivoire, which is not regarded as a least developed country (countries not included in Annex I to the Convention.

• Director of publication Mohamed Yahya Ould Mohamed MAHMOUD Director General of ARC

• Editor in chief Papa Oumar DIEYE, Head of the CIDU

• Editorial Board :Dr Abdou ALIDr Abou AMANIDr Benoît SARRDr Hubert DJAFA OUAGAM. Issa GARBADr Seydou TRAORE

• Layout and electronic dissemination:BOUBACAR Mainassara Abdoul Aziz

AGRHYMET special Monthly

B.P. 11011Niamey, NIGERTel: (227) 20-31-53-16Fax: (227) 20-31-54-35 Email: admin@agrhymet.neWeb: http://www.agrhymet.ne

Some publications avalaible on our website: www.agrhymet.ne

42

Regularly consult the AGRHYMET Regional Centre’s Web site : www.agrhymet.ne

The primary source of information on training and information centred on food security, water management and desertification control in the Sahel.