Climate Change in the News IV 2016 LLI.pdf · Climate Change in the News April 2016 2. Climate...
Transcript of Climate Change in the News IV 2016 LLI.pdf · Climate Change in the News April 2016 2. Climate...
Climate Change in the News
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Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef
February 2016Climate Change in the News
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Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef
Climate Change in the NewsApril 2016
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Climate Change in the News
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Climate Change in the News
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Climate Change in the News
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Climate Change in the News
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Climate Change in the News
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Muir (L) & Riggs Glacier; Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska
Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?
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Muir (L) & Riggs Glacier; Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska
Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?
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Muir (L) & Riggs Glacier; Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska63 yrs later
Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?
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http://geology.com/usgs/glacier-retreat/Muir (L) & Riggs Glacier; Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska
63 yrs later
Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?
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How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how?
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Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?
1978
2008
13
Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?
1978
2008
30 yr
13
Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?
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Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?
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Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how?
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Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how?
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Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?
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Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?
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Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?
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Is Earth’s Climate Changing; if so, how? How do ‘feedback loops’ contribute to GCC?
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421
538
670
936
2016-2035What Do Current IPCC Reports (models)Predict?
2081-2100C
O2
Con
cent
ratio
n (p
pm)
Compared to a 1986-2005
baseline
WG1AR5_TS_FINAL, p. 89
25
What Is Causing Earth’s Climate to Change?
2100
500
421
538
670600
421 538 670 936in 2100 (84 years)
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/wp-content/plugins/sio-bluemoon/graphs/mlo_full_record.png
Can we use this to predict (extrapolate)?
27
421
538
670
936
2016-2035 2081-2100C
O2
Con
cent
ratio
n (p
pm)
Compared to a 1986-2005
baseline
What Do Current IPCC Reports (models)Predict?
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What is the Relationship Between Atmospheric CO2 and World Gross Domestic Product
PPP=purchasing power parity
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What is the Relationship Between Atmospheric CO2 and World Gross Domestic Product
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What is the Relationship Between Atmospheric CO2 and World Gross Domestic Product
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What is the Relationship Between Atmospheric CO2 and World Gross Domestic Product
http://www.wri.org/print/4393832
What are the costs of providing energy?What other costs (if any) exist?
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What are the costs of providing energy?What other costs (if any) exist?
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What are the costs of providing energy?What other costs (if any) exist?
http://appvoices.org/end-mountaintop-removal/health-impacts/#137
Can we apply economic principles to natural resources? How?
http://www.catf.us/coal/problems/
power_plants/existing/
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Can we apply economic principles to natural resources? How?
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Quantity, Q
Uni
t Pr
ice,
P
Private Cost
Social Cost
DemandQP
PP
QS
PS
Social costs are external to normal
market pricing
Equilibrium (reflecting
social costs)
Supply-Demand Curve
Equilibrium (unfettered market)
Ohio “Sin taxes”• Beer, 12%• Wine, 21%• Cigarettes $1.25/pk
How do we pay for these costs?
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Command and Control Policy: 30% Mandatory Cut
180 tons cut 120 tons cut
Older Newer
300 tons cut @ cost $12,000
Before: 600 tonsAfter: 420 tons
Before: 400 tonsAfter: 280 tons
How do we pay for these costs?
$50/ton to reduce emissions $25/ton to reduce emissions
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0 tons cut 400 tons cut
Older Newer
400 tons cut @ cost $10,000
Before: 600 tonsAfter: 600 tons
Before: 400 tonsAfter: 0 tons
How do we pay for these costs?
$50/ton to reduce emissions $25/ton to reduce emissions
Carbon Tax: $30/ton (Market-based Mechanism #1)
Government collects $18,00045
Older Newer
How do we pay for these costs?
$50/ton to reduce emissions $25/ton to reduce emissions
Cap-and-Trade Program: 30% Cut (Market Mechanism #2)
Market Price of an allowance to emit
1 ton = $30
100 tons cut 200 tons cut
300 tons cut @ cost $5,000 + $5,000 - $2,400 = $7,600
Before: 600 tonsAfter: 500 tons
Before: 400 tonsAfter: 200 tons
$2400 for 80 tons
Permits for 80 tons
Government collection depends on awarding of allowances
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Cap-and-Trade Program: 30% Cut (Market Mechanism #2)
Older NewerHow do we pay for these costs?
$50/ton to reduce emissions $25/ton to reduce emissions
300 tons cut @ cost $5,000 + $5,000 - $2,400 = $7,600
Government collection depends on awarding of allowances
Command and Control Policy: 30% Mandatory Cut
300 tons cut @ cost $12,000
400 tons cut @ cost $10,000
Carbon Tax: $30/ton (Market-based Mechanism #1)
Government collects $18,000
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How do we pay for these costs?
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How do we pay for these costs?
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http
://do
cum
ents
.wor
ldba
nk.o
rg/c
urat
ed/e
n/20
15/0
9/25
0538
34/s
tate
-tre
nds-
carb
on-p
rici
ng-2
015
How do we pay for these costs?
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ETS=Emissions Trading System
or “Cap and Trade”
$10 tax/ton CO2e = 8.9¢/gal
How do we pay for these costs?
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World Bank Group, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015
ETS=Emissions Trading System
or “Cap and Trade”
How do we pay for these costs?
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https://feww.wordpress.com/category/drought/
How do Ecosystem services effect us?
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•9 of 10 largest wheat-importing countries in MidEast•Egypt, largest of those, 38% of calories eaten from wheat•Droughts in MidEast; Syria: “worst long-term drought; most severe set of crop failures since agricultural civilizations began in the Fertile Crescent many millennia ago.”•MidEast & sub-Saharan Africa have world’s highest pop growth rates=> migration to cities=>clamor for better conditions=>gov’t repression, instead.•7 of those 9 wheat importing countries had riots where people died in 2011.
http://www.stimson.org/books-reports/the-arab-
spring-and-climate-change/
How do Ecosystem services effect us?
The Arab Spring and Climate ChangeA Climate and Security Correlations Series
Edited by Caitlin E. Werrell and Francesco Femia February 2013Preface by Anne-Marie Slaughter
WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG
ASSO
CIATED
PRESS/BEN C
URTIS
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World Food Prices 2008-2012
2008 20122009 2010 2011
UN
Wor
ld F
ood
Pric
e In
dex
How do Ecosystem services effect us?
2002-2004 = 100http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
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How do Ecosystem services effect us?World Food Prices 2008-2012
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Who does not deny Climate Change?
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http://www.greenhouse2011.com/UserFiles/Presentation/presentationUrl_23.pdf
Who does not deny Climate Change?
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Who does not deny Climate Change?
http://www.doomsdayprophecies.info/end-of-the-world/rise-of-natural-disasters.jpg62
NatCatSERVICE
Loss events worldwide 1980 – 2014 Number of events
© 2015 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2015
Number
Meteorological events (Tropical storm, extratropical storm, convective storm, local storm)
Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement)
Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)
200
400
600
800
1 000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Who does not deny Climate Change?
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What is the difference between skepticism and cynicism?What is the role of objectivity?
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What is the difference between skepticism and cynicism?What is the role of objectivity?
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What is the difference between skepticism and cynicism?What is the role of objectivity?
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What is the difference between skepticism and cynicism?What is the role of objectivity?
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Published on PR Watch (http://www.prwatch.org)
Home > Lawyer Tormenting Scientists Revealed Working For Coal Company
Lawyer Tormenting Scientists Revealed Working For Coal Company [1]Submitted by Nick Surgey [2] on March 18, 2016 - 12:52pm
Chris Horner, a DC-based lawyer, climate change denier and Fox News regular, is also being paid as a "Regulatory Counsel"for the coal company, Alpha Natural Resources, according to bankruptcy filings reviewed by the Center for Media andDemocracy (CMD). Horner’s repeated filing of lawsuits against leading U.S. climate scientists has been described as"harassment [3]."
Alpha funding for Horner was first reported by Lee Fang [4], writing for the Intercept in August 2015 from earlier bankruptcyfilings, although his role as Counsel was unknown until now.
Horner's role as Regulatory Counsel for Alpha is described in a declaration [5] that he signed, and which was filed with thebankruptcy court on January 11, 2016. Another document shows that funding from Alpha to Horner has continued through toat least the end of January, 2016, which is the most recent reporting period.
As the Wall Street Journal has reported [6], Horner was paid a total of $18,600 by Alpha for the months of May, June and July
647LikeLike
What is the difference between skepticism and cynicism?What is the role of objectivity?
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What is the difference between skepticism and cynicism?What is the role of objectivity?
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What is the difference between skepticism and cynicism?What is the role of objectivity?
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What is the difference between skepticism and cynicism?What is the role of objectivity?
http://www.vox.com/2015/6/2/8701917/americans-opinion-climate-change
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Do
We
Trus
t th
e M
odel
(s)?
NoYes
No
Yes
Are the Models Correct?
STOP STOP
STOP STOP
What is the difference between skepticism and cynicism?What is the role of objectivity?
Which square has the highest risk for society?
71
Do
We
Trus
t th
e M
odel
(s)?
NoYes
No
Yes
Are the Models Correct?
What is the difference between skepticism and cynicism?What is the role of objectivity?
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Do
We
Trus
t th
e M
odel
(s)?
NoYes
No
Yes
Are the Models Correct?
Blaise Pascal(1623-1662)
Pascal’s wager
What is the difference between skepticism and cynicism?What is the role of objectivity?
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Do
We
Trus
t th
e M
odel
(s)?
NoYes
No
Yes
Are the Models Correct?
What is the difference between skepticism and cynicism?What is the role of objectivity?
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What can I do to help reduce Climate Change?You’re better off eating vegetables from Argentina than
red meat from a local farm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8395287.stm75
Climate Change in the News
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Climate Change in the News
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Climate Change in the News
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Time (MYA)
Brai
n Vo
lum
e (c
c)
500
1000
1500
(not linear)6.0 3.0 1.02.0 0.5 0.0
“Lucy”H. habilis
H. erectus
H. neanderthalensis/sapiens
How would a Martian Scientist View Homo sapiens?
You are here
Australopithecus
80
Time (MYA)
Brai
n Vo
lum
e (c
c)
500
1000
1500
(not linear)6.0 3.0 1.02.0 0.5 0.0
“Lucy”H. habilis
H. erectus
H. neanderthalensis/sapiens
10,000 yr
How would a Martian Scientist View Homo sapiens?
You are here
Australopithecus
80
8,000BCE 4,000BCE TODAY
2B
4B
6B
8B
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n *
200 yr
You are here
Why is atmospheric CO2 increasing?
81
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
of C
arbo
n/yr
Coal
Industrial Revolution
1775
Global CO2 Emissions 1836-2010 (as of April 2014)
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751_2010.ems
0
2500
5000
7500
1000018
36
1865
1894
1923
1952
1981
2010
Oil
Nat. Gas
Cement
Total
What are the direct, human-caused CO2 sources?
You are here
Why is atmospheric CO2 increasing?
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-0.50
-0.25
0
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
from
Sta
ndar
d, ºC
(190
1-20
00)
Mean for 1901-2000 = 0
Trend line
You are here
What distinguishes science from other human endeavors?
83
Voyager 1
The Pale Blue Dot
1990
3,700,000,000 mi from Earth
Video next
What distinguishes science from other human endeavors?
You are here
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The Pale Blue Dot
3,700,000,000 mi from Earthhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=923jxZY2NPI
What distinguishes science from other human endeavors?You are here
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