Climate Change in Iran

Agricultural science and resource management in tropics and subtropics (ARTS)

Submitted to: Prof. Dr. Mattias Becker

Submitted by: Mahsa Motlagh

ARTS 2009-2011

Table of contents

Introduction

-Climate and National Circumstances of Iran

-Assessment of Direct Adverse Impacts of Climate Change

Temperature and Precipitation Water Resources Agriculture Forestry and Land Use Coastal Zones Health Energy and Industrial Processes

-Climate Change Impacts on Iran

GHGs Mitigation Assessment

Energy Sector Non-energy Sector

-Overall Mitigation Assessment

- Vulnerability and adaption

- The proposed Iran strategy on the climate change issue

-Iranian Government’s statements and view point on Climate change regarding International conferences

The most important expectations of Iran from the international Conferences The Iranian government’s expectations from the UN for the support of sustainable development

-Conclusions and recommendations

-References

Introduction:

The Islamic Republic of Iran lies in western Asia. In the north it is littoral to the Caspian Sea and borders Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. It is contiguous with Turkey and Iraq to the west. In the south the country is littoral to the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman and abuts Pakistan and Afghanistan to the east. The principal and official language is Farsi (Persian). The population in 1994 (the base year) was about 57.7 million (now estimated at 72.0 million). The area coverage of different types of climate in Iran is 35.5% hyper-arid, 29.2% arid, 20.1% semi-arid, 5% Mediterranean, and 10% wet (of the cold mountainous type). Thus more than 82% of Iran’s territory is located in the arid and semi-arid zone of the world.About 52 percent of the country consists of mountains and deserts and some 16 percent has an elevation of more than 2,000 m above sea level. The cultivable area is estimated at about 51 million hectares, which is 31 percent of the total area .

Above 20 million hectares, or 36 percent of the cultivable area, are considered usable for agriculture. Of this area, 12.8 million hectares consist of annual crops and 1.6 million hectares of permanent crops.According to global statistics, Iran with more than ten million hectares of cultivated land under irrigation ranks seventh in the world. At the same time, more than 8 million hectares of agricultural lands in Iran is subjected to dry farming. Watershed operations, which are used to protect water and soil, date back to some 50 years ago.

Desert, wasteland, and barren mountain ranges cover about half of Iran's total land area. Of the rest, in the 1980s about 11 percent was forested, about 8 percent was used for grazing or pastureland, and about 1.5 percent was made up of cities, villages, industrial centres, and related areas. The remainder included land that was cultivated either permanently or on a rotation, dry-farming basis (about 14 percent) and land that could be farmed with adequate irrigation (about 15 to 16 percent). Some observers considered the latter category as pastureland.

Salinity and drought are among the most important environmental stresses that limit crop production in Iran. Low rainfall, high air temperatures and high evaporation rates are the main factors that cause water stress and contribute to the development of a saline environment surrounding the plant roots. Natural soil salinity and high concentration of salts in irrigation waters aggravate the situation.

Agricultural land availability is not a major constraint. The major constraint is the availability of water for the development of these lands. The irrigation potential, based on land and water resources, has been estimated at about 15 million ha, or 29 percent of the cultivable area. However, this would require optimum storage and water use.

Climate and National Circumstances of Iran

Iran has a variable climate. In the northwest, winters are cold with heavy snowfall and subfreezing temperatures during December and January. Spring and fall are relatively mild, while summers are dry and hot. In the south, winters are mild and the summers are very hot, having average daily temperatures in July exceeding 38° C. On the Khuzestan plain, summer heat is accompanied by high humidity.

In general, Iran has an arid climate in which most of the relatively scant annual precipitation falls from October through April. In most of the country, yearly precipitation averages 25 centimetres or less. The major exceptions are the higher mountain valleys of the Zagros and the Caspian coastal plain, where precipitation averages at least 50 centimetres annually. In the western part of the Caspian, rainfall exceeds 100 centimetres annually and is distributed relatively evenly throughout the year. This contrasts with some basins of the Central Plateau that receive ten centimetres or less of precipitation annually.

The climate of the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of great extremes due to its geographic location and varied topography. The summer is extremely hot with temperatures in the interior rising possibly higher than anywhere else in the world; certainly over 55 °C has been recorded. In winter, however, the great altitude of much of the country and its continental situation result in far lower temperatures than one would expect to find in a country in such low latitudes. Minus Temperatures of –30 °C can be recorded in the northwest and –20 °C is common in many places.

The average rainfall in Iran is about 250 mm, which is less than 1/3 of the average rainfall in the world (860 mm). In addition, this sparse precipitation is also unfavourable with respect to time and location. Another important climatic element is extreme temperature changes that sometimes range from –20oC to +50oC.Severe drought is also recognized as a feature of Iran’s climate. In the last three years, the country has suffered severe desiccation and this lack of rainfall has resulted in extensive losses. Annual rainfall ranges from less than 50 mm in the deserts to 2 275 mm in Rasht near the Caspian Sea. The average annual rainfall is 228 mm and approximately 90 percent of the country is arid or semi-arid. About 23 percent of the rain falls in spring, 4 percent in summer, 23 percent in autumn and 50 percent in winter.

Assessment of Direct Adverse Impacts of Climate Change

Temperature and Precipitation

To provide an insight into what will happen if the GHGs emissions issue is not properly managed, six scenarios have been designed. These scenarios were selective combinations of two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) models, three emission scenarios, and three different climate sensitivities. Low emission combination resulted in an increase in temperature ranging from 1° to 1.5° C. Changes for the second combination range from 2.5° to 4.1° C and the third combination resulted in an increase in temperature ranging from 5.9° to 7.7° C. The same patterns were used to portray precipitation variations in the country. The resulting fluctuations appear in the following ranges:

-11% to 19.1% of the baselines for low emission rate ,

-30.9% to 50% of the baselines for medium emission rate, and

-58% to 80% of the baselines for high emission rate .

Water Resources

Research on the global warming effects on hydrology and water resources in Iran has been undertaken on several rivers and lake basins by using historical hydro-meteorological data and runoff models in combination with the global warming scenarios. The result of historical runoff data surveys collected at 398 hydrometric stations shows that the Flood Index has changed in 47% of them. In addition, of 600 climatological stations studied, 68 indicate climate changes during 1990-2000 .

The long-term runoff model applied to 30 basins shows that the temperature rise increases the runoff volume during winter and decreases it during spring as rising temperature melts snowfall into rain and hastens the time of snow melt. It also indicates that temperature increase affects runoff of basins and decreases the amount of runoff variation of rainfall .

Agriculture

The predicted increase in temperature due to global warming may lead to spikelet sterility in rice, loss of pollen viability in maize, reversal of verbalizations in wheat and reduced formation of tuber bulking in the potato for the areas near the threshold. The changing climate will affect wheat, which is the main staple crop. The historical data indicates that as a result of drought and reduction of rainfall, wheat production will be sharply reduced. Losses inflicted by the 1998-1999 droughts on wheat production nationwide are estimated at about 1,050,000 tons of irrigated wheat and 2,543,000 tons of rain fed wheat. The figures indicate that agricultural areas are highly vulnerable to climate change .

Forestry and Land Use

Climate change has a profound impact on the forestry sector. This includes changing the habitat location of forest species, especially the less tolerant ones and the extinction of low tolerant species. The natural regeneration regime of forest plants is upset and results in the reduction of wood and non-wood production in

forests. Forests witness pests and plant disease infestation and an intensification of land erosion, particularly in arid and semi-arid zones. Sea-based mangrove forests are degraded and sometimes destroyed because of the rise in sea level in the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman.Environmental conditions for wildlife in forest areas decline sharply as does forage production in rangeland, which can in some cases signal the onset of desertification. Soil erosion is the natural result of destruction of plant cover and all such conditions are exacerbated by high temperature and aridity. One social consequence of this environmental downgrading is population migration because of ecological insufficiency .

Coastal Zones

The northern part of Iran is a centre of agricultural production. The southern region is home to the energy industry and hence oil installations and energy exports. The nation’s largest ports for export of goods are also located in the south. These characteristics of both north and south define Iran as being vulnerable to climate change impact .

According to the 10-year hourly-recorded data in three sites (Chabahar, Bandar Abbas and Bushehr), the mean sea level in the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman has been rising at an average value of 4.5 mm/yr, which agrees with the IPCC 1995 scenario. The impact of temperature and sea level rise namely: coastal erosion in the north and south; inundation of low lands such as the Miankaleh peninsula and Gorgan Bay; mass bleaching of the coral reef, salt water intrusion caused by flooding and inundation are all outstanding instances of the vulnerability of Iran’s northern and southern coastal zones.From a socio-economic point of view, climate change has a great adverse impact on the availability of fresh water in these regions. Saltwater intrusion both into surface water and groundwater are the most important issues, particularly in the Karun River system, which is the main source of drinking water for the population centers of more than one million people and has been subject to salt water intrusion caused by sea level rise combined with a low river flow .

Health

Climate change will cause direct adverse health effects. Global warming is expected to lead to more cardiovascular, respiratory, and other diseases. In particular, one of the major vector born tropical diseases is Malaria, which is prevalent in different provinces of Iran. The research on the exposure rate to Malaria from 1982 to 1998 indicates that the trend cases of those infected are on the rise.

Energy and Industrial Processes

Reduction in efficiency of thermal power plants, decrease in hydropower production resulting from lower water level in dams, destruction of coastal and offshore oil, gas and petrochemical installations in southern coastal zones caused by severe sea storms are the significant impact of climate change. It is estimated that global warming causes an increase in electricity demand of about 20,000 MW in the next 50 years.

Climate Change Impacts on Iran:

Climate change and global warming since the 1980s have in parts of the world led to clear responses in plant phonology. In Iran phonological phases of natural vegetation as well as of fruit trees and field crops have clearly advanced in the last decade of the 20th century. The northeast of Iran is one of the most important agricultural regions of Iran. Studies on cotton phonological phases show slow trends. Until now the phonological changes in cotton are still moderate, without any strong impact on yields. However, further climate change is likely to increase the effects on cotton plants. In the future stronger impacts on crop yields are likely.

Based on the research and assessment carried out during the Climate Change Enabling Activity Project under UNFCCC, and using the scenarios proposed by IPCC, it is estimated that if the CO2 concentration doubles by the year 2100, the average temperature in Iran will increases by 1.5 - 4.5ºC which will cause significant changes in water resources, energy demand, agricultural products, and coastal zones.

The “direct” adverse impacts of climate change include changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, water resources, sea level rise and coastal zone, agriculture and food production, forestry, drought frequency and intensity, and human health. The “indirect” adverse economic impacts result from the response measures taken by the developed countries.

Iran is characterized by aridity and variability of rainfall, climate change is likely to have a major impact on water resource management, in terms of i) decreased average annual precipitation, ii) increased variability in the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, and iii) increased average temperatures and resulting higher evaporation from dams and reservoirs. Trends of reduced surface water availability, reduced groundwater reserves, and increased occurrence of drought and flood events have been observed.

GHGs Mitigation Assessment

Iran has high potential for alleviating the amount of GHGs emission. In the energy sector, the principal policies being pursued are clean and efficient power generation, environmentally friendly refineries, improved vehicle and public transport and energy-efficient buildings and appliances. Similarly, in the non-energy sector, reduction strategies include modern farm and livestock management, protection of forestlands and other natural resources, plus control and treatment of wastewater, disposal management and recycling of solid wastes .

Energy Sector

-Improving Energy Efficiency

Enhancing energy efficiency has proved to be the most economical option for reducing emission of GHGs by as much as 31% in 2021. By rational use of energy, accompanied with changes in the fuel mix, it would be possible to reduce the average annual growth rate of CO2 emission from 4.2% to 2.4% in the period 1999-2021. Energy efficiency mitigation options include increasing the share of the combined cycle power generation in power plants, defining better standards for energy consumption in domestic and commercial buildings, mandating the use of energy labels for domestic manufacturing of home appliances and improving vehicle technology.

-Fuel Switching

By switching from liquid fuels like gas oil or heavy oil to natural gas, the amount of CO2 emission from thermal power plants will be reduced from 89.4 million tons in 2000, to 83 million tons in 2005, a decline of 7.2% .

-Flare Gas Recovery

Flare gas recovery for oil well injection purposes and the development of GTL (Gas-to-Liquid) technologies can also make an important contribution to GHGs emission reduction.

-Use of Clean and Renewable Energy Resources

The Government has taken positive measures for the development of renewable energy sources. These include solar and wind energy, geothermal, wave and tidal energy, hydrogen energy, hydropower and nuclear energy. By 2004, the capacity of hydro, geothermal and nuclear energies in power generation will increase, respectively, to 7,700 MW, 1,200 MW and 1,000 MW.

Non-energy Sector

The non-energy areas i.e. agriculture, forestry and waste sectors have a rather small share in GHGs emission compared with the energy sector. The major mitigation polices in these sectors include increasing ruminant productivity, improving rice cultivation techniques, and management of agriculture residue in the agriculture sector. Afforestation, reforestation of forest, driving livestock from the forests and switching from wood to fossil fuel in the forestry sector are also important policies. Other measures include management of solid waste disposal and recovery of CH4 from landfill in the waste sector.

Overall Mitigation Assessment

Mitigation policies in the energy sector are crucial to Iran’s overall policies. Emission of GHGs can be reduced from 639,614 to 489,822 Gg CO2 equivalents in 2010 by implementing the policies proposed for the energy subsectors. If the government’s plans for recovery of flare gas for gas injection into oil wells are not put into effect, GHGs reduction by 2010 will be about 330,627 Gg CO2 equivalents. Enhancing energy efficiency, including combined cycle power generation, has proved to be the most economic option for GHGs reduction in energy sector.At present renewable energy sources represent a low share and high cost in electricity production in Iran. Hence the main options should focus on fuel switching, hydropower, combined cycle, cogeneration and nuclear energy.

In the developing world, on average 80 percent of GHG emissions originate from cities and half of that figure is related to energy consumption in the residential and commercial sector and in the functioning of public facilities and utilities.

Both fuel switching and energy efficiency improvement methods are recommended for cement and particularly the iron and steel industries. The rate of capital return in implementing energy efficiency and fuel switching, are 70% and 50% for cement and 134% and 182% for the iron and steel industries, respectively. Significant measures have been proposed to reduce the GHGs emissions from the transportation sector in Iran. These procedures constitute a mitigation program package that focuses on improved vehicles, increasing public transport, production of higher quality fuels and promotion of rail transportation for both passengers and cargo.

By implementation of the overall aggregated policies, the amount of GHGs emission will be reduced from 752,150 Gg to 560,791 Gg by the year 2010. In that year, the contribution of power plant and transport sectors to the total GHGs mitigation will be 32% and 20%, respectively; whereas forestry and agriculture sectors will contribute 7% and 6%, respectively .

Success of the essential and suggested strategy will thus depend significantly on the ability to promote consensus on the need to act (which is needed to mobilize human and financial resources), and to support the growth in institutional and technical capacity required to define how to act. To achieve these objectives, Iran will:

· Document the economy-wide impacts of climate change and provide estimates of their cost. This type of studies would build on sector-specific assessments mentioned throughout section II.1. The findings of this work would be used to reach out to senior decision makers and strengthen the case for responding to climate change

· Support outreach and communication campaigns (either as component of other projects, or as stand-alone initiatives) targeted at different stakeholder groups (e.g. policy makers, civil servants, community leaders, private sector, etc), and aimed at raising awareness on adaptation needs (for instance by disseminating the results of vulnerability assessments); or on cost-effective opportunities to reduce GHG emissions

Vulnerability and adaption:

•Vulnerability is defined as “the extent to which a natural or social system is susceptible to sustaining damage from climate change ”

Adaptation is defined as “adjustment in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts”

Climate change poses the risk of further depressing the sector’s economic performance through accelerated desertification , yield reductions and increased volatility (especially in cereals), of threatening rural jobs, increasing the fiscal burden of government intervention in support of the sector, and thwarting efforts to improve access to foreign markets for high value crops. Iran has been accustomed for millennia to deal with a warm and arid climate, but the predicted pattern of higher temperature and reduced precipitation will be beyond the coping range of many individual farmers and communities; suitable selection of adaptation strategies will thus be indispensable. While in some cases adequate changes in the selection of input, outputs and technologies will be able to minimize climate change impacts, in some others the sector’s vulnerability may just be too high to warrant large public or private investments in adaptation, and the challenge will be to devise a strategy of gradual productive diversification and sector transformation.

Agriculture and Food Security

Since 71% of cultivated land is devoted to grains with rain irrigation, climate change has significant adverse

impact on food security.

Recent droughts have resulted in 52,000 billion Rials of damage in agricultural sector and 3,600 bilion Rials in

water resources

Reduction of job positions in agricultural sector.

Increased immigration of farmers into the large cities

The proposed Iran strategy on the climate change issue

It would therefore focus on interventions to:

1. Improve the country understands of the likely magnitude, timing and location of climate change impacts on agriculture and fisheries;

2. Maintain the long-term productive potential of the natural resource base, with particular attention to rangelands, through:

support to adoption of climate-resilient production solutions (e.g., change in crop/livestock production systems etc), drought and flood resistant crop varieties, modification in planting times.

preservation or recovery of traditional knowledge, particularly in the “Fertile Crescent”3;

3. Increasing farmers’ capacity to deal with plant and animal pests and diseases, which are likely to become more pervasive due to climate change;

4. Promote the integration of measures capable of reducing climate change impacts inexisting or planned programs of support to poorer farmers (e.g. micro-credit programs);

5. Provide cost-effective ways of protecting farmers from increased vulnerability due to high climate volatility through weather-based insurance and other schemes, such as targeted social protection programs

6. Promote the diversification of productive activities in rural areas away from vulnerable crops or livestock activities, and facilitate the transition and transformation of the most climate-vulnerable rural areas (encouraging the development of alternative income and employment options, such as eco-tourism)

7 .Support farmers or herders to exit out of areas which will have become too dry for any farming or herding activity, through professional/vocational training programs.

Iranian Government’s statements and view point on Climate change regarding International conferences

April 2008

According to figures, since 1970 the earth has got between 0.8 to 1 degree Celsius warmer. This has resulted in severe

droughts on one hand and floods and strong storms and hurricanes to occur on the other hand. Over the last decade,

Iranian government has witnessed at least 10 years of drought in Iran and neighbouring countries. The drought has

severe implications, particularly in grains and cereals production. One problem that people shall be faced with will be

the price of cereals. Strong storms and hurricanes, and floods, and also the rising sea levels in coastal areas are other

serious problems. To confront ecological changes, the world must adopt an economy where the carbon dioxide

emissions reach minimum levels.

Iran and Iranian officials have no objections in this regard, because this is a view that is based on scientific evidence.

Iran’s position stress’s on supporting the environmental protection conventions and the Kyoto Protocol, and Iran has on

agenda long-term planning for combating climate change. In the private sector, the civil institutions and groups have

expressed positive reactions. For example in a sitting in the Engineers Society Bureau in Tehran, while playing a video

clip of Al Gore’s documentary on climate change, the young consultants engineers society of Iran said that these

changes to the climate were 2 very important, and at the sitting it was decided for the engineers society to set some

standards to fight this problem. One of the decisions that were made by the consultant engineers society was to

environmentally, socially and health evaluations to be made before large industrial and construction projects were

implemented, and consultant engineers must conduct the careful evaluation themselves and or projects that had not been

evaluated must not be implemented. Another problem that existed was traditions and refusal to follow suit, and because

our country is an old and historic country that is full of tradition, and these old traditions must be used in some of the

planning. Another issue raised was the encouragement to use new energy sources, and energy saving gadgets.

The most important expectations of Iran from the international Conferences are:

Portioning the glasshouse gas emission levels in different countries

Forcing countries to use new energy sources and provide grants to countries for this.

Change of states grant and tax policies

Provision of grants for environmental friendly projects

Allocation of credit for population control in poor countries, as a means to help reduce heat and reduce usage

Need to create initiatives in Third World countries

Financial support for developing countries and transfer of technology to these regions.

Importance of the existence of developing countries’ interests in climate change programmes.

The Bali Conference showed that there is a strong will and consensus for the protection of the climate, but there is a

long way to go to fulfil this will. Not only has the United States not signed the Kyoto Protocol, but the majority of

industrialized countries believe that developing countries must take up responsibility in the protection of the climate

more than before. The thing that causes complexity in the subject is what must countries do in the event the protection

of the climate brings about negative results in their growth?

The Iranian government’s expectations from the UN for the support of sustainable development:

Particular attention to the situation and interests of developing countries within environmental programmes

Information dissemination and monitoring the implementation of the principles of treaties and agreements that

have been signed in local, national, regional, and international conferences.

Concentration of UN scientific and practical potentials to achieve more realistic results in environmental field.

Drawing the participation of all influential sectors in this field such as government, civil society and private

sector

Setting national and international environmental regulations with a special focus on the situation of developing

countries.

Payment of particular attention to sustainable education, and creation of technical skills for governmental,

nongovernmental and social experts.

Setting special capacity building programmes on sustainable development and the environment.

Analysis of the situation and confronting the most important threats to the environment

Iranian Government policies regarding climate change issue

Conclusions and recommendations

A strategy at the national level should be developed to prepare a comprehensive inventory, and a monitoring and evaluation program outlining the state of water resources. Agro ecological zoning helps in assessing the land-use potential for resource allocation and preparation for possible future shifting, and prevention of undesirable land-use changes due to climate change. Iran should develop new crop varieties or species that will survive the effect of temperature increases due to climate change. New heat-resistant crops, low-water requirement crops, and diversified farming systems should be developed. Diversification can more easily minimize environmental and socioeconomic risks .

Although in recent years preliminary investigations have been undertaken on the impact of climate change on water resources, there are still many uncertainties. Developing and applying response strategies, techniques, and methodologies for assessing the potential adverse effects of climate change, through changes in groundwater levels, temperature, precipitation, and sea level rises, on freshwater resources and flood risk are proposed. Also, it seems appropriate to conduct case studies and establish linkages between climate change and the current occurrences of droughts and floods in certain regions. Rivers, which are important sources of water supply for the metropolitan areas in the country, are directly or indirectly affected by the changes in precipitation and temperature (UNFCCC, 2003). In recent years, metropolitan regions in Iran are becoming more and more vulnerable to extreme climate conditions such as drought. Although The Long-Term Development Strategies for Iran's resources does not address the climate change issue explicitly, it is a relevant guide in adaptation of mitigation strategies for agricultural demands in the country.

References:

www.climate-change.ir

www.agrometeorology.orgwww.fao.org/climatechange/

www.conference-service.com

www.jahad.org

www.iran-un.org

www.unairan.org