Climate Change in India: Policies and Actions on Adaptation

Dr.A.K.SinghDeputy Director General (NRM)

Indian Council of Agricultural ResearchNew Delhi 110 012

________________________________________________Paper presented at the Indo – China Workshop on National Action Plans on Climate Change of India and China, New Delhi – 21st Oct 2009

• Increased temperature, heat waves and cold waves directly affecting the crop performance

• Extreme rainfall events causing more droughts, floods which reduce crop yields and indirectly affect water availability for agriculture

• Inundation of coastal areas with sea water

• Increased incidence of pests and diseases

• Rapid oxidation of soil organic carbon and its effect on soil fertility

Key issues in Agriculture under climate change scenario in India

Impacts on Crop Production

Significant change likely on key parameters with business as usual scenario

Year Season Temperature Change (oC) Rainfall Change (%)

Lowest Highest Lowest Highest

2020s Annual

Rabi

Kharif

1.00

1.08

0.87

1.41

1.54

1.17

2.16

-1.95

1.81

5.97

4.36

5.10

2050s Annual

Rabi

Kharif

2.23

2.54

1.81

2.87

3.18

2.37

5.36

-9.22

7.18

9.34

3.82

10.52

2080s Annual

Rabi

Kharif

3.53

4.14

2.91

5.55

6.31

4.62

7.48

-24.84

10.10

9.90

-4.50

15.18

Source : Lal M, 2001, Current Science 81, 1205

Crop water requirements to rise: crop duration to decrease (eg. AP in India)

Station Crop Increase in water requirement in mm (2020-2005)

Reduction in crop duration (weeks)

Anakapalli Maize

Groundnut

51.7

61.3

1

1

Anantapur Groundnut

Red gram

70.1

174.3

1

1

Jagityal Cotton

Maize

60.5

49.0

2

1

Rajendranagar Red gram

Groundnut

114.5

73.0

2

1

Tirupathi Groundnut 73.0 1

Prasad Rao et al, 2008

Projected impacts quite complex depending on Combination of factors (eg. Maize in India)

Climate change scenario Good year Bad year Normal year

Maize yield

% deviation

Maize yield

% deviation

Maize yield

% deviation

No climate change 2132 0 267 0 601 0

Increase in maximum temperature along by 1oC

2265 6.2 236 -11.7 581 -3.2

Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures by 1oC

2192 2.8 254 -5.0 652 8.5

Increase in CO2 level to 450 ppm 2144 0.6 275 2.9 618 2.9

Increase in CO2 level to 450 ppm + increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures by 1oC

2215 3.9 268 0.5 671 11.7

Increase in precipitation by 10% 2367 11.0 376 40.7 1026 70.8

Increase in CO2 level to 450 ppm + Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures by 1oC + increase in precipitation by 10%

2528 18.6 359 34.3 1143 90.3

Prasad Rao et al, 2008

Interactive effects of different factors on simulated wheat yield (eg.Gujarat, India) CERES model

Temperature (oC) and SAR (MJ m2day-1) and CO2(Base value 330 ppm)

Simulated grain yield (kg ha-1) % Change from base optimal (3837 kg ha-1) and sub optimal (3112 kg ha-1) yield

440 ppm Optimal Sub-optimal Optimal Sub-optimal

3 4369 2410 14 -23

1 4726 3287 23 6

-1 4550 3920 19 26

-2 4255 3929 11 26

-3 3776 3776 -2 21

550 ppm

3 5125 2730 34 -12

2 5593 3307 46 6

1 5778 3784 51 22

-1 5452 4602 42 48

-2 5161 4695 23 51

-3 4707 4695 23 51

Contd…

Temperature (oC) and SAR (MJ m2day-1) and CO2(Base value 330 ppm)

Simulated grain yield (kg ha-1) % Change from base optimal (3837 kg ha-1) and sub optimal (3112 kg ha-1) yield

660 ppm Optimal Sub-optimal Optimal Sub-optimal

3 5781 3015 51 -3

2 6332 3476 65 12

1 6541 4226 70 36

-1 6229 5201 62 67

-2 5950 5262 55 69

-3 5537 5439 44 75

Pandey et al, 2007, J. of Agrometeorol, 9, 149

Crop season has strong influence onimpact level (eg. Paddy in TamilNadu), INFOCROP

Githalakshmi andDheebakaran, 2008

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2 4 6 7 8 10 12 13 14

Days after initiation

larval weight(g)

550ppm

700ppm

Chamber

Ambient

Climate change increases pest incidence through more

feeding, larval growth and increased larval duration

Source, CRIDA, Hyderabad, India

Adaptation Measures

Adaptation strategies to match with the Impacts

Direct effects Strategy

Reduction in duration of crops

Modification in reproductive physiology and yield

Targeted Conventional Breeding and use of biotech tools including MAS

Bioinformatics

Indirect effects

Decline in water resources

Increased pests and disease incidence

Loss of soil organic C

Conservation and efficient

use of water

IPM and IDM

Conservation farming

Crop/Cropping System Based Technologies

Crop Based ApproachesCrop Based Approaches

� Crops and varieties that fit into new cropping systems

and seasons

� Development of varieties with changed duration

� Varieties for high temperature, drought, inland salinity

and submergence tolerance

� Crops and varieties that tolerate coastal salinity and sea

water inundation

� Varieties which respond to high CO2

� Varieties with high fertilizer and radiation use efficiency

The importance of germplasmThe importance of germplasm

• Wild and extant varieties could have traits tolerant to high temperature/elevated CO2 etc.

• Might have been discarded in the past due to low yield potential

• Can be made use as parents for breeding of tolerant varieties to climate change

• Need for revisiting gene banks with a view to search for unique traits required for climate change

• Indigenous knowledge and farmers wisdom has immense value

Short duration drought tolerant cultivars : Answer to reduced duration due to climate change

Location Crop Variety Duration

Varanasi Rice

Pigeonpea

Vandana

T-21

176

153

Phulbani Pigeonpea T-21 160

Arjia Maize Surya 70-75

Anantapur Groundnut Vemana 105-110

Indore Soybean JS-90-41 87-98

Rewa Rice Kalinga-3 110

Akola Cotton AKH-081 150-160

Bijapur Sunflower KBSH-1 90-95

Solapur Sorghum Mauli 105-110

Hisar Pearlmillet HHB-67 60-62

Bangalore Fingermillet GPU-26 90-105

Source: CRIDA, Hyderabad, India

Source : CRIDA

Intercropping - the best way to Adapt to climate change by small holders

Crop-Crop Diversity for adapting to increased pest incidence

Effect of intercropping on Coccinellids

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

Standard weeks

Population/plant

SDP sole SDP+S

SDP+G SDP+C

MDP sole MDP+S

MDP+G MDP+C

LDP sole LDP+S

LDP+G LDP+C

� Creation of crop diversity by the introduction of

another crop is known as crop- crop diversity

� The insitu culturing of natural enemies lead to

reduction of insect pests in diversified crop

conditions.

� Sorghum, groundnut and blackgram as intercrops

with pigeonpea:

Cluster bean, cowpea and greengram with castor

reduced the incidence of the insect pests.

These results can go as component of Low

External input IPM modules

CRIDAAgro-forestry systems to provide more stable incomes during years of extreme weather events

Neem + CowpeaNeem + Cowpea

Guava + styloGuava + stylo

Faidherbia Albida+SorghumFaidherbia Albida+Sorghum

Mango + GreengramMango + Greengram

Shelter belts for moderating micro climate.Shelter belts for moderating micro climate.

�� Shelter belts reduce wind velocityShelter belts reduce wind velocity

�� Moderate temperatureModerate temperature

�� Reduce evaporative loss and conserve soil Reduce evaporative loss and conserve soil

moisturemoisture

Protecting young seedlings against cold by covering with

straw thatching

Protecting mango against frost through smoke by burning semi dry biomass

Cost effective technologies to protect from cold wave and frost

Resource Conservation Based Technologies

Strategies for Efficient Management of Soil, Water and Nutrients

� Land use based on land capability

� In situ moisture conservation

� Rainwater harvesting and recycling

� Efficient use of irrigation water

� Conservation agriculture

� Energy efficiency in agriculture and irrigation

� Use of poor quality water

Zero-Tillage Improved Productivity at Less Cost

- -

• Saves Rs.2500/ha in bed preparation• Early sowing improves wheat yield by 5-15% • Saves water (25-30 %)• Reduce Phalaris minor (40-50 %)• Ensures timely planting

Year Area

(million ha)

Savings (Rs. in

million)

2000-01 0.05 125

2001-02 0.2 500

2002-03 0.3 750

2003-04 1.0 2500

Total (2000-2004) 3875

Source: NATP, Irrigated Ecosystem

Economic benefits of using zero tillage technology from 2000 to 2004

Conventional Raised Bed planting

Bed Planting: A Water-Wise Technology

• 20-25 % Saving in irrigation water

• Opportunity for crop diversification

• Suitable for mechanical

weeding & reduces herbicide

use

Source: NATP Irrigated Ecosystem

Zero tillage relevant in Peninsular India alsoWarangal (AP) – 10 farmers

Normal Maize Zero Till Maize

Seed rate 7 kg/acre 5kg/acre

Cost of cultivation including shelling

5500 Rs/acre 4200 Rs/acre

Yield 17 q/acre 20 q/acre

Economic returns 11400 Rs/acre 14000 Rs/acre

Profit 6400 Rs/acre 9800 Rs/acre

Source : NAIP, CRIDA

Managing sea water intrusion in coastal areas : Doruvu/Kottai technology

Traditional system Improved system

• Shallow pond

• More land required, Less water stored

• Less water for pumping

• Manually irrigated

• Small area covered

• Deep (upto 20 ft) open well

• Horizontal flow of under ground water enabled in to the well through pipes

• More water stored, small land required

• More water to pump and irrigate crops

� Ridges and furrows system in cotton in vertisols. Additional yield of 500 kg/ha over farmers’ practice

(In situ moisture conservation and drainage)

� On Farm Reservoir (OFR) technology in Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand created major impact on drought management during kharif

� The Government of Chhattisgarh included this technology in the drought relief programme

On farm water harvesting

Source : NATP, CRIDA

SRI – a water saving methodAttribute SRI Non SRI

Effective Tillers/Total 31/32 12/13

Grains/Panicle 146 92

Yield(t/ha) 8.5 5.5

Cost of cultivation(Rs) 15578* 16500

*includes costs of weeder & marker

Traditional method

SRI method

Integrated Nutrient Management to reduce emissions in paddy

Treatment Rice yield t/ha

Denitrifi-cation Losses kg/ha

N2O Emissions kg/ha

Nitrate Leaching kg/ha

Soil Organic-C g/kg

Control 3.4 18 6.9 59 3.7

120 kg N/ha 5.6 58 12.4 94 3.7

GM20+ 32 kg N/ha

5.9 50 11.8 78 4.1

CR6+GM20 + 32 kg N/ha

5.9 52 11.8 - 4.9

LSD (0.05) 0.2 6 3.4 12 0.4

Source : CRRI, Cuttak

CR: Crop residue, GM: Green manure

Farming systems approach as a tool for risk mitigation in drought prone areas

Type of farming system No.of households

% of Households

Net income (Rs.) per household

Only agriculture 13 3 2,400

Agriculture + Vegetable cultivation

30 5 11,330

Agriculture + milch animals 374 - -

I Jowar+Castor+Cow 92 16 8,300

ii.Jowar+Castor+Buffalo 123 21 9,750

iii.Castor + Cow 72 13 7,325

iv.Castor + buffalo 87 15 8,775

Source : CRIDA, village studies Nallavelli in Telangana region of AP, India

Policy initiatives to felicitate Policy initiatives to felicitate

adaptation to climate change in adaptation to climate change in

IndiaIndia

LAND USE

•Afforestation of untapped land resources for enhanced carbon

sequestration

•Policy on incentives like input subsidies, premium for appropriate and

judicious land use in view of regional and local climate variations.

WATER

•Policy on reduction of conveyance loss in minor and medium irrigation

projects for efficient use of available water in larger areas.

•Discouraging cultivation of high water consuming crops in coastal areas.

•Policy to focus promoting increased farm level storage capacity of water.

•Demand side management of waters resources through

collective/cooperative sharing with better incentives than the one given to

individuals.

•Incentives to on farm harvesting in farm ponds promoting convergence

with NREGA, RKVY and other programs

CROPS AND CROPPING SYSTEMS

•Incentives for good agriculture practices like low tillage, residue

management, cover crops etc., that promotes carbon sequestration and

reduce emission of GHGs.

•Policy shift from area based fertilizer recommendation to site specific

nutrient management.

•Incentives and subsidies for conservation agriculture practices in

potential regions like deep soils and double cropping.

•Fiscal incentives to adopting INM and organic agricultural practices.

•Development of suitable crop/cropping systems for changing climate

scenarios.

•Policy on regionally oriented extensive crop and biodiversity cataloguing

and conservation including insect-pests, pathogen, weed, and beneficial

organisms.

Contd…

•Establishment of seed banks of contingency crops at district levels.

•Regulatory frame work to prevent movement of pest, pathogen and

weeds from low to high risk zones under crop/cropping systems of

changed climate regions.

•Specific international funds for agricultural adaptation need to be

identified that are additional to existing development assistance.

•Strengthening the research capabilities and infrastructure to

forecast vulnerability, outbreaks and transboundary movements of

key pests and developing adaptation strategies

•Adopting energy saving agricultural practices, changing livestock

diet and improving manure and slurry storage.

ENERGY MANAGEMENT AND BIOFUELS

•Promotion of Multi-Purpose Tree Species (MPTS) into

mitigation policies and programmes such as the Clean

Development Mechanism (CDM) to promote carbon capture.

•Environmental and socially applicable schemes and policies on

biofuels to promote a balanced trade-off ensuring functional

resilience of the ecosystem.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC ISSUES

•Redesigning social sector schemes with focus on vulnerable areas/

populations to promote new crops and markets

•Policies to support environmentally friendly forms of agricultural

production to reduce GHG emissions.

•Greater use of market-based instruments such as risk-based insurance

for floods and droughts.

•Characterization of bio-physical and socio-economic resources utilizing

GIS and remote sensing to identify vulnerable areas

•Policy frame work for Precision agriculture and crop, region and season

based decision support systems

•Micro level data on climate, crop and soil for timely preparation of

contingency plans