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levels of distribution investment have

gone missing since independence.

The distribution sub-sector that, today,

needs the maximum attention is totally

unable to support such investments. A few

states have made such investments despite

their fiscal pressures but even they need

to do more. However, they are unable togenerate the required surpluses. The tariff

increases and efficiency gains at the state

utilities primarily guarantee the protected

returns of bloated CPSUsand the private

sector both of whom have gradually raised

their stake in the sector and are, today,

the dominant force because of being

rewarded selectively with the highest

regulated returns in the world. All this is at

the cost of the state utilities charged with

the primary responsibility for servicing

end users of electricity but progressively

rendered unable to do so because of a

misguided policy and regulatory regime.

All of the above is further compound-

ed by the poor governance that afflicts

both the central and the state public

sector units engaged in the power sector

with the state-owned units being rela-

tively worse. Poor vision, poor planning

and procurement practices, high degree

of political interference in all commercial

decisions and human resource manage-

ment, and, above all, the lucrative arbi-

trage offered by a tariff regime that ranges

from free power to power priced at rates

not charged anywhere else in the world

has led to a grossly inefficient and dis-

torted sector wherein available data is

completely unreliable and doctored toobfuscate massive corruption, poor pro-

ductivity and a culture of mediocrity.

In Conclusion

I have primarily highlighted the power

sector issues here within the context of the

proposed financial restructuring of the

dues of the state discoms and the broader

concerns of fiscal stability both at the

centre and the state levels. The distortions

in the oil and gas sector and the coal sector

are no less potent in threatening Indias

fiscal stability and undermine our attempts

to provide even basic levels of energy ac-

cess to our people. A fact that might come

as a surprise to our elitist planners, but

best reflects our loss of touch with the

reality of India, is that traditional bio-

mass together with the animal and hu-

man draught energy constitutes the sin-

gle largest source of energy in India by

far. We put out an erroneous guestimate

of how much traditional biomass we use

as a nation year after year in our Plan

documents and we are blissfully igno-

rant about the extent of animal and hu-

man draught energy that powers the

worlds third or fourth largest economy.

Those who tell us that nuclear energy is

the answer to Indias energy woes aresimply fooling themselves and the peo-

ple of this country. I can safely say that

at least till 2050 and possibly till even

later, that is not even remotely likely.

The Indian electricity and energy

sectors are simply unsustainable in their

current form. Schemes that tinker around

the edges while preserving the current

policy and regulatory superstructure pro-

vide limited policy space. Fiscal stability

and our promise of basic energy access

to our people demands a more compre-

hensive and a more serious rethink. The

first step in that direction is to get rid of

the vested interests that are advising the

government on key policy initiatives.

These are the same people who have

brought us to the current abyss. They ben-

efit from preserving the status quo. The

honorable young and articulate power

minister and the Fourteenth Finance

Commission will do well to take note.

Climate Change in HimachalEvidence from Kullu Region

Mohit Kapoor, Abdul Shaban

Temperatures are rising in Kullu

in Himachal Pradesh wherefarmers are dependent on the

rains for agriculture. This article

uses meteorological data to

provide evidence of gradual

climate change in the region that

might affect livelihoods.

Anumber of studies provide evi-

dence of changes in local climate

and the effects these changes have

on people and economies across the

world. Studies on the Himalayan region

(Ranbir et al 2009) and perception of

people in these regions also show a

change in climatic variables (Vedwan

and Rohodes 2001). It has been observed

that a change in climatic variables in

various parts of the Himalayan belt has

affected agricultural activities in the

region as well as livelihoods. An attempt

has been made in this article to look intothe local-level climate change by analys-

ing climatic variables in the Kullu district

of Himachal Pradesh, a small district in

the western Himalayan region. The dis-

trict is situated between 31020-32025 N

latitude and 76056-77052 E longitude

and topographically is rugged mountain

and a transitional zone between the Lower

and Greater Himalayas. The altitude of

the district varies between 1,000m and

6,000m. The general climate of Kullu is

cold, dry with average rainfall around

800 mm. It receives its major rainfall

from July to September.

Kullu is one of the most rural districts

of India as about 90% of the population

of the district lives in villages (Census of

India 2011) and more than 75% of the

population depends on primary activities

and the majority of farmers are marginal

farmers. Only 6% to 7% of the total culti-

vable area is under irrigation (Govern-

ment of Himachal Pradesh 2012). Thus

any change in climate can affect theeconomy as people largely depend on

nature for their livelihood.

Mohit Kapoor (kapoormohit4@gmail.com) is at

the School of Development Studies, Tata Institute

of Social Sciences, Mumbai. Abdul Shaban iswith the School of Development Studies, Tata

Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai.

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about 1.12oC and 0.97oC, respectively,

per decade, while the increase in annual

average minimum temperature for the

zone 2 is 0.89oCper decade.

(iii) Surprisingly zone 1 shows a decline

in average minimum temperature for

June of about -1.7oC per decade. This

month also shows an increase in thenumber of rainy days and minimum and

maximum relative humidity, and decrease

in bright sunshine hours.

(iv) In zone 2 also the month of June has

experienced an increase in amount of

rainfall (of 1.34 mm per year) and a de-

crease in average sunshine hours.

(v) Annual average relative humidity

has increased in both the zones of the

district. The rise in annual average rela-

tive humidity in zone 2 is 0.16% per year,

while in zone 1 annual average maximum

relative humidity has increased by 0.36%

per year. Zone 1 has also experienced an

increase in average maximum relative

humidity in all months, except July

and September.

(vi) Snowfall, which mainly occurs in

zone 2 during October to March, has not

shown any significant trend of decline

or increase.

Thus, one can conclude from the

results presented above that the climatein both the zones is getting warmer and

more humid. Though rainfall and snow-

fall did not change significantly, the

increasing trend in temperature can

bring about variations of those variables

as well. The rise in temperature can

affect agriculture and horticulture on

which a majority of the districts popu-

lation is dependent. With very little mit-

igation measures, the only hope to avoid

future climatic consequences is to un-

dertake adaptive measures. However

the question is whether rural-based

communities of these areas have the

capabilities and whether they can

afford the cost of adaptation, which can

be huge.

References

BBC (2007): The Story of India, TV Documentary,Episode 1, BBC UK, presented by MichaelWood.

Census of India (2011): Provisional PopulationTotals, Paper 2 of 2011: Himachal Pradesh,Office of the Registrar General and CensusCommissioner, Ministry of Home Affairs, Gov-ernment of India, New Delhi.

Table 2: Trend in Climatic Variables in Zone 1 (Altitude 1,090 Metres) of Kullu D istrict Zone 1 (1,090 m)

Month Intercept () Trend Coeff icient p-Value of R-Square

() Trend Coeffi cient

Average maximum temperature oC (1985-2005)

May 28.600 0.208 0.015 0.272

Annual average 24.705 0.052 0.040 0.204

Average minimum temperature oC (1985-2005)

June 19.278 -0.172 0.022 0.247

Number of rainy days (1975-2005)

June 6.123 0.131 0.029 0.154

Average maximum relative humidity (1985-2005)

January 89.500 0.188 0.022 0.246

February 84.395 0.44 0.004 0.359

March 80.524 0.558 0.034 0.216

April 81.476 0.455 0.04 6 0.194

May 77.986 0.443 0.026 0.235

June 70.890 0.806 0.00 0.507

August 87.771 0.229 0.012 0.291

October 85.767 0.251 0.031 0.223

November 88.414 0.274 0.049 0.189

December 89.305 0.197 0.045 0.196

Annual average 83.905 0.364 0.005 0.351

Average minimum relative humidity (1985-2005)

June 33.814 0.575 0.012 0.29

Days of bright sunshine (mean hours/day) (1986-2005)

March 5.626 0.078 0.021 0.263

June 9.088 -0.084 0.021 0.275

The trend has been computed using regression equation, y = +t + e, where y is dependent variable, is intercept, t is

time and takes value 0,1,2,n for the years, is trend coefficient, and e is error term.

Source: Computed by the authors from the data obtained from HAREC, Bajaura.

Table 3: Trend in Climatic Variables in Zone 2 (Altitude 1,670 Metres) of Kullu District Zone 2 (1,670 m)

Month Intercept () Trend p-Value of Trend R-square

Coefficient () Coefficient

Average maximum temperature oC (1970-2010)

January 9.979 0.044 0.035 0.109

July 25.752 0.056 0.007 0.172

August 25.273 0.064 0.006 0.18

Annual average 20.095 0.028 0.023 0.126

Average minimum temperature oC (1970-2010)

January -0.058 0.087 0 0.369

February 0.427 0.112 0 0.4

March 3.926 0.097 0 0.28

April 7.843 0.085 0.002 0.228

May 10.692 0.086 0.002 0.217

June 14.328 0.078 0.001 0.241

July 17.108 0.083 0 0.356

August 16.591 0.088 0 0.386

September 13.382 0.087 0.006 0.178 October 7.991 0.075 0.001 0.241

November 4.217 0.083 0.038 0.106

December 1.617 0.076 0.002 0.215

Annual average 8.112 0.089 0 0.452

Total annual rainfall (in mm) (1970-2010)

June 48.248 1.338 0.016 0.141

Average relative humidity (1970-2010)

February 64.243 0.289 0.003 0.204

April 59.932 0.239 0.027 0.119

December 53.879 0.401 0.005 0.184

Annual average 67.175 0.156 0.003 0.203

Average sunshine (hours/days) (1974-2010)

June 8.325 -0.053 0.001 0.298

August 6.395 -0.048 0.009 0.178

Annual average 6.474 -0.014 0.013 0.193

Source: Computed by the authors from the data obtained from IARI, Katrain.

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Precipitation Indices in South Africa: 1910-2004,International Journal of Climatology, 26 (15):2275-85.

Pal, I and Al Tabbaa A (2009): Regional Changesin Extreme Monsoon Rainfall Deficit andExcess in India, Dynamics of Atmosphere andOceans, 49 (2-3): 206-14.

Ranbir, R, R Bhagat, V Kalia and H Lal (2009):Impact of Climate Change on Shift of AppleBelt in Himachal Pradesh, paper presentedat conference of ISPRS on Climate Change

and Agriculture, Ahmedabad, December.

Shrestha, A B, C P Wake, P A Mayeski and J E Dibb(1999): Maximum Temperature Trends inthe Himalaya and Its Vicinity: An AnalysisBased on Temperature Records from Nepalfor the Period 1971-94,Journal of Climate , 12:2773-87.

Vedwan, N and R Rhoades (2001): Climate Changein Western Himalayas of India: A Study ofLocal Perception and Response, Climate

Research, 19: 109-17.

Government of Himachal Pradesh (2012): DistrictLevel Economic Indicator 2010-11, Departmentof Economics and Statistics, Himachal Pradesh,

www.himachal.nic.in/economics/pub.htm,viewed on 15 July 2013.

Huntington, Ellsworth (1922):Principles of HumanGeography(New York: Wiley).

IPCC (2007): Climate Change 2007, Synthesis Re-port [IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR 4)],Geneva, Switzerland.

Kruger, A C (2006): Observed Trends in Daily

Historical Validity ofMullaperiyar Project

R Seenivasan

This historical analysis of the

Periyar project questions the

arguments and some of the

contemporary claims made about

the projects engineering and

construction, and its

environmental impact. Far from

being an environmentally

destructive project, this was a

pacifist scheme when it was

built. The article throws light on

these issues by analysing

historical documents.

Controversies surrounding the

Periyar dam have acquired differ-

ent dimensions over time. New

claims have been made that the original

conception of the project itself was an

environmentally harmful idea. For Ra-

maswamy R Iyer, a proponent of such a

theory, the dam appears to be a case of

hubristic and maximalist engineering

and a bad example,1and he raises some

basic questions about the planning

and the need for the dam itself.2These

arguments resemble in many ways thetheories advanced by historians3study-

ing north and east Indian floodplains.

Without making any statements on

these studies, this article examines the

merits of similar arguments advanced

by Iyer.

This article uses Periyar project docu-

ments, district manuals and gazetteers

of the times, and engineering histories

written by engineers on the project. It

argues that whatever was done by the

British in Vaigai and Periyar was an ex-

tension of the possibilities that existed in

irrigation engineering at the time. These

examples of engineering and planning

cannot be solely ascribed to the European

way of science and engineering.

How True Are These Claims?

It is true that building the Periyar dam

had no precedence in engineering and

was an extraordinary effort for its time.

In the late 19th century, the project gen-erated great interest among engineers,

geographers, administrators and revenue

officials. The number of proposals and

plans made4about the Periyar project it-

self is an indication of an intense and

passionate debate about using natural

resources. The project, unlike many oth-

er contemporary projects, had to under-

go vetting by several agencies of the

time and took nearly 11 years to get ap-

proved by the British government. While

there is no doubt that land revenue gen-

eration was a major consideration, the

project was also put forth as a famine

control measure5 and for the social

development of certain denotifiedcastes

that lived in the area.

The project invited attention from

around the world, and was watched

carefully for its results. For example, the

Royal Geographic Societys monthly

journal reported about the difficulties

and benefits of this endeavour in the fol-lowing words:

The difficulties of the undertaking were

increased by the nature of the country

jungle-c lad, malar ious, and uninhabited

and the altitude (2800 feet) to which the

materials had to be dragged up steep slopes

with an average gradient of 1 in 15, four

large unbridged rivers also having to be

crossed on the way from the nearest railway

station. Water-power was utilized in the

work wherever possible, and altogether

the best economy of force was practised,

with a result that the total cost of this bene-ficent undertaking has been less than half

a million sterling at the present rate of

exchange, on which outlay the direct

profits should yield a handsome return (The

Society 1895: 567).

The dam construction used mostly

local ingredients such as stone and lime

sourced nearby. Very few machineries

and iron works came from Europe. The

project had three main components

the dam and lake on the hills, a tunnel

to transmit, and channels inside theVaigai basin. Local technicians, artisans

and labourers from the neighbouring

R Seenivasan (r.seenivasan@gmail.com) is a

PhD candidate at the School of Law, University

of Westminster, London.