Climate change in black and white

7/29/2019 Climate change in black and white

1/56

IN BLACK AND WHITELessons for 2013 from climate

science and observations in 2012David Spratt BZE discussion 4 February 2013


2/56

EMIS

SIONSGROWT

H

Globalfossil&cementemissions

9.50.5PgCin2011,54%over1990

ProjecBonfor2012:9.70.5PgC58%over1990

Uncertainty is 5% for one standard deviation (IPCC likely range)Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Le Qur et al. 2012; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012


3/56

EMIS

SIONSGROWT

H

Globalcarbondioxideemissions


4/56

N

EW

EM

ISSION

SSOURCES Emissionsgrowthin2011

Chinaresponsiblefor80%ofglobal

emissionsgrowth

For comparison, Germany emitted a total of 0.2PgC in 2011Source: CDIAC Data; Le Qur et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012


5/56

EMISSIONS

BYTYP

E

Emissionsgrowth2000-2011

coal+4.9%,

oil+1.1%gas+2.7%

cement+6.9%

flaring+4.3%(notshown)

Source: CDIAC Data;Le Qur et al. 2012;

Global CarbonProject 2012

Share of globalemissions in 2011


6/56

EMISS

IONBY

COUNTRY

Top4emi>ersin2011

covered62%ofglobalemissionsChina(28%),UnitedStates(16%),EU27(11%),India(7%)

The growing gap between EU27 and USA is due to emission decreases in Germany (45% of the 1990-2011

cumulative difference), UK (19%), Romania (13%), Czech Republic (8%), and Poland (5%)Source: CDIAC Data; Le Qur et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012


7/56

PERCAPITAE

MISSIO

NS

Worldaveragepercapitaemissionsin2011

1.4tC/pChina1.8tC/p,UnitedStates4.7tC/p,EU272.0tC/p,India0.5tC/p

Chinese per capita emissions are almost equal to the EU27, and 36% higher than the global average

Source: CDIAC Data; Le Qur et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012


8/56

4DEGREES?

Emissionsheadingto4-6.1Clikely

increaseintemperatureby2100

Linear interpolation is used between individual datapoints

Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Global Carbon Project 2012;


9/56

NewWorldank-commissionedreportwarnstheworldisontracktoa4Cworldby2100andasearlyas2060

"WeareexpecBnginthenext50yearsfortwotothreedegreesmorewarming

ProfDavidKaroly,

ACNews,12Jan2013 4to6Cwarmingover

pre-industrialBmesby

theendofthiscentury

DrPepCanadell,CSIRO

ClimateInteracBve>>4DEGREES?

A4-degreewarmerworld?


10/56

ThisisagraphicalinterpretaBonbyofaspectsofrecentpaleo-climateresearchby:

Hansen, J. E. and M. Sato (2012). Paleoclimate implications for human-made climate

change in Climate Change: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects. Berger,

Mesinger and ijai (eds), Springer, Vienna, 2012.

Eocene

peak

PETMnatural

greenhouseeventat55millionyearsago.

PALEO-

CLIMATELESSONS Climatepastandfuture

Lessonsfor2Cand4Cwarming


11/56

AntarcLcglaciaLon~34millionyearsago

Eocene

peak

Around34millionyearsago,glaciaBonof

AntarcBcaattail-endofprotractedupperEocene

cooling.

Relativetemperature

PALEO

-CLIMATELE

SSONS


12/56

Around~4.5millionyearsago,northernhemisphereglaciaBon.

AssociatedwiththeriseofthePanamaCordillerawhichisolates

thePacificfromtheAtlanBcoceansandleadstointra-oceanic

circulaBon(Gyres)whichintroduceswarmcurrentsandmoisture

totheNorthAtlanBcresulBnginincreasedsnowfalland

formaBonoficeinGreenland,LaurenBaandFennoscandia.

NorthernhemisphereglaciaLon~4.5millionyearsago

Eocene

peak

Relativetemperature

DuringPliocene,atmosphericCO2

valuesfellfrom~410ppmto~300ppm

PALEO

-CLIMATELE

SSONS


13/56

ThelastmillionyearsClimateswings

betweeniceagesandwarm

inter-glacialperiods

overlastmillionyears.

CO2between170and300partsper

million.

Carbondioxide

andmethane

overlast

500,000years

Relativetemperature

PALEO

-CLIMATELE

SSONS


14/56

PeakofHolocene(overlast10,000yearsup1900AD)

Thelast10,000yearstheHolocene

PeakHolocene

temp.

Holocene:aerthelasticeage,relaBvely

stabletemperatures(+/0.5C)andsea-

levelsoverlast10,000

yearstheperiodofhumancivilisaBon

Relativetemperature

PALEO

-CLIMATELE

SSONS


15/56


GlobalaveragetemperaturenowabovepeakHolocene

TodaystemperatureisabovetheHolocenemaximum

2010

CO2leveltoday(2011)is393ppmbutthermalinerBa(delayasoceanmass

warm)meanstemperaturewillincreasefurther.

Temperatureshaverisen~0.83Csince

1900andarenowabovepeakHolocene.

Relativetemperature

PALEO

-CLIMATELE

SSONS


16/56



2Cofwarmingoverpre-industrial:consequenceofcurrentlevelofgreenhousegases

2degreesgoodbyetoGreenlandicesheet

+2C

Whenclimatesystemreachesequilibrium,

presentlevelofCO2willproduce>2Cofwarming

withfeedbacks

Relativetemperature

PALEO

-CLIMATELE

SSONS


17/56

PeakHolocene:overlast10,000yearsup1900AD

Globalaveragetemperaturenow~0.6CabovepeakHolocene

2Cofwarming:consequenceofcurrentlevelofgreenhousegases

+2C

whichissufficientforlargepartsofGreenlandandWest

AntarcBcicesheetstobelost,leadingtoatleasta2510metre

sea-levelriseoverBme

Goals to limit human-made

warming to 2C.. are not sufficient

they are prescriptions for disaster

Dr James Hansen

Relativetemperature

PALEO

-CLIMATELE

SSONS


18/56




4Cofwarmingoverpre-industrial

4degreesgoodbyetoAntarcLcicesheet

estpresentemissionreducBon

commitmentsbyallgovernments(ifimplemented)willsBllleadto4degreesofwarmingby2100

+4C

Relativetemperature

PALEO

-CLIMATELE

SSONS


19/56




4Cofwarmingoverpre-industrial

+4C

andlikelylossoverBmeofallicesheets.Noice

sheetsonplanet=70metresea-levelriseover

Bme

Relativetemperature

PALEO

-CLIMATELE

SSONS


20/56

PALE0-

CLIMATELESSONS Period Yearsago CO2ppm Temp(2010

base)

Sealevel

Lastglacial

maximum

20,000years

ago

170ppm 5C 120mlower

Eemianinter-

glacial

120,000years

ago

280320ppm +0.51C 5-15mhigher

Mid-Pliocene 3million

yearsago

365400ppm +1C 2510m

higher

Pliocene(northern

hemisphere

glaciaBon)

2-4millionyearsago

410ppmfallingto

300ppm

+1C~0

Today 450ppm

CO2e

2+??? ???

Oligocene

(startof

southern

hemisphere

glaciaBon)

3234million

yearsago

CO2levels

fellbelow

~750ppm

+3C 70mhigher

before

glaciaBon


21/56

ArcLc(floaLng)sea-icerecordmeltin2012

11.83mill.sq.kmsofseaicelost20March16September Half19792000averagearea:51%to24%in2012 Two-thirdsoficearealossinthelast12years ProcessisacceleraBng Thesea-iceisalsothinningrapidly

ARCTICBIGM

ELT20

12


22/56

ARCTICBIGM

ELT20

12


23/56

Howsoonbeforethereisanice-freeday? UKparltEnvironmentAuditCommiee(15January2013):

observaBonsandmodellingsupportedtheviewthatthe

end-summerseaicewouldremainunBlatleast2030but

thisisbasedonmodellingthatisdecadesbehindreality

ARCTIC

SEAIC

EVOLU

ME

80%of

summersea-

icevolume

lostsince1979:16,855

cubickmsto

2012:3,263

cubickmsice

Halfoflossin

last7years2000 2005 2010 2015 2020


24/56

CambridgeProfessor

PeterWadhamsscenario

Summersea-iceallgoneby2015or2016exceptperhapssmallmulB-yearremnantnorth

ofGreenlandandEllesmereIs.

y2020icefreeseasonlastsatleastamonth y2030ice-freeperiodhasextendedto3months. SeptSSTalreadyelevated6-7Cover

conBnentalshelves.

Offshorepermafrosttoshrinkback&vanishover~10

years

Forecastfor4Cby2100occursby2060

SEA-ICEPREDICTIONS


25/56

ArcBcamplificaBonnow3x,movingtox3.54 3monthsofArcBcsummerfreeofsea-icewillincrease

regionaltemperature~2C.

andglobaltemperatureby~0.5C

1monthicefreewillincreaseglobalTby~0.2C

ARCTICBIGM

ELT20

12

ArcLcamplificaLon


26/56

GREEN

ALAND

ICESH

EET

MelBngover

Greenlandicesheet

shaeredthe

seasonalrecordinthemodernera,4

weeksbeforecloseof

themelBngseason

ReflecLvityofGISat

highelevaBons

involvedinthemid-

Julymeltevent(97%surfacemelBng),

declinedtorecord

lows


27/56

CouldtheGreenlandicesheetsurvive

iftheArcBcweresea-ice-freeinsummerandfall?

notonlyisicesheetsurvivalunlikely,butitsdisintegraBonwouldbeawetprocessthatcanproceed

rapidlyJamesHansen

TheBppingpointforGreenlandreviseddownto1.6C(uncertaintyrangeof0.8-3.2C)abovepre-industrial

(Robinsonetal,NatureClimateChange2:429432)

Paleo-climaterecordshowsGreenlandicesheetformedatlessthan400ppmCO2andwearetherenow

IMHOBppingpointforGreenlandhasalreadybeencrossedbutwewillonlyknowitretrospect!

GREEN

ALAND

ICESH

EET


28/56

GREEN

ALAND

ICESH

EET

IfGreenlandicemasslossrateisexponenBal: A10-yeardoublingBme(greenline)wouldleadto

1metresealevelriseby2067&5metresby2090.

A5-yeardoublingBme(redline)wouldleadto1metresealevelriseby2045&5metresby2057.

Howquickly

isGreenland

icesheet

melLng?

Notdataover

alongenoughperiodyet,

butHansens

musings


29/56

WESTANTARCTICA

WesternAntarcLcIceSheet

iswarmingnearlytwiceasfastaspreviouslythoughtan

increaseof2.4Cinaverageannualtemperaturebetween

1958and2010


30/56

SEA-L

EVELRISES

USgovernmentlooksat2-metreSLRby2100scenario U.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineersupdatedguidance:

acredibleupperboundfor21stcenturysea-levelrise

wouldnotexceed2meters

WhileAustraliasBcktoamax.to2100of1.1metres!!

GlobalSeaLevelRiseScenariosfor

theUnitedStatesNaBonalClimate

Assessment,NOAA(2012)


31/56

P

ERMAF

ROST

Permafrost

PosiBvepermafrostcarbonfeedbackwillchangetheArcBcfromacarbon

sinktoasourceaerthemid-2020s

andisstrongenoughtocancel4288

percentofthetotalgloballandsink.

Tippingpointforthelarge-scalelossofpermafrostcarbonisaround810C

regionaltemperatureincrease.

ArcBcamplificaBonisX3.54soarounda22.5Cincreaseisenough.FeedbackswoulddriveThigher.

PhilippeCaias:Aglobalaverageincreaseinairtemp.of2Candafewunusuallyhotyearscouldseepermafrost

soiltemperaturesreachthe8Cthresholdforreleasing

billionsoftonnesofcarbondioxideandmethane.


32/56

AR

CTICLE

SSONS

KEYESSONFROMARCTICIN2012

Asthesystemchanges,wemustadjustour

(understandingofthe)science

inClimateProgress,13September2012


33/56

G

ULFSTREAM

Gulfstream

wobble

RecordrainsinEurope

ExtremecoldsnapsinEuropeand

USA

Magnifyingthe

Superstorm

Sandy

impact


34/56

ArcLcwarmingandmid-laLtudeweather

WhenthePolarVortexaringofwindscirclingtheArcBcbreaksdown,thisallowscoldairtospillsouth,affecBngtheeasternUSandotherregionsresulBngina

warmer-than-averageArcBcregionandcolder

temperaturesthatmayincludeseverewinterweather

eventsontheNorthAmericanandEuropeanconBnents.

DrJamesOverland,NOAA

Increasedwaveamplitudewouldcauseassociatedweatherpaernsinmid-laBtudestobemorepersistent,

whichmayleadtoanincreasedprobabilityofextremeweathereventsthatresultfromprolongedcondiBons,

suchasdrought,flooding,coldspells,andheatwaves.

EvidencelinkingArcBcamplificaBontoextreme

weatherinmid-laBtudes,FrancisetalGRL39:6

G

ULFST

REAM


35/56

ConnecLngthedotsSuperstormSandy

DrobCorell,DrJeffMastersandDrKevinTrenberth

Wellprobablyneverknowtheexactpointwhenthe

weatherstoppedbeingenBrelynatural.utweshould

considerSandyandotherrecentextremeweatherevents

anearlytasteofaclimate-changedworld,andagrim

previewoftheevenworsetocome,parBcularlyifwe

conBnuetopumpmorecarbonpolluBonfromsmokestacks

andtailpipesupintotheatmosphere.

ItsBmetostopaskingwhenclimatechangewillarrive.Its

here,andweneedtomoveaggressivelytocurbcarbon

emissionswhilealsopreparingforachangedworld.Weare

atnothinglessthanacriBcaljuncture.

CONNECTING

THEDOTS


36/56

Australia

2009Victorianfires2011Queenslandfloodsand.

Andnow2013naBon-wideheatwave

ExtremeinspaBalextentandduraBon HighestnaBonaldailymaximum40.33C(7Nanuary2013) Hoest2-dayperiodonrecord. NaBonalmeantemprecordsat32.22C(January7)and

32.32C(January8)

SequenceofnaBonalaveragetempabove39Cof7days;11daysstraightofnaBonalaverageabove38C

RecordmaximumsinHobart,Sydney,manymore Sevenofhoest20daysintheclimaterecordin2013 SeptDec2012averageAustralianmaxtemperaturehighest

onrecord.Anomalyof+1.61C

70%ofconBnentrecordedtemps>42Cbetween114Jan

CONNECTING

THEDOTS


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CONNECTING

THEDOTS

In first 14 days of January, 70% of Australiaexperienced a 42C+ day


38/56

CONNECTING

THEDOTS

AT100(1-in-100yearevent)valueina4C-warmerworld

Temperatureextremesreachvaluesaround50Cinlargepartsoftheareaequator-wardof30degreesProjected

T100valuesfarexceed40CinSouthernEurope,theUSMid-

Westby2090-2100andevenreach50Cinnorth-eastern

IndiaandmostofAustralia


39/56

PMJuliaGillardin2013

"Andwhileyouwouldnotputanyoneeventdowntoclimatechange...wedoknowthatoverBmeasaresultofclimatechangewearegoingtoseemoreextremeweather

events

[NoteproblemswiththisformulaBonseeTrenberth]

LandscapetomoonscapeaperfectstormComparethisto

VictorianfireandQueenslandfloodresponsesfrompoliBcianswhereclimatechangewasnotmenBoned

VictorianRoyalCommissionintobushfiresexcludedclimatechangefromtermsofreference!

DavidKarolytold20094degreesconferenceinpaperonlackSaturdaythat:WeareunleashinghellonAustralia

CONNECTING

THEDOTS


40/56

JeffMasters,WeatherUnderground

Theclimatehasshiedtoanewstatecapableof

deliveringrareandunprecedentedweatherevents

Climateiswhatyouexpect;weatheriswhatyouget.Ilike

tothinkoftheweatherasagameofdice.MotherNature

rollsthediceeachdaytodeterminetheweather,andthe

rollsfallwithintheboundariesofwhattheclimatewill

allow.Theextremeeventsthathappenattheboundaries

ofwhatarepossiblearewhatpeopletendtonoBcethe

most.Whentheclimatechanges,thoseboundarieschange.

Thus,themainwaypeoplewilltendtonoBceclimate

changeisthroughachangeintheextremeeventsthatoccurattheboundariesofwhatispossible.

CONNECTING

THEDOTS


41/56

DrKevinTrenberth,USNCAR

ItsnottherightquesBontoaskifthisstormorthatstorm

isduetoglobalwarming,orisitnaturalvariability.

Nowadays,theresalwaysanelementofboth....thereisa

systemaBcinfluenceonalloftheseweathereventsnow-a-

daysbecauseofthefactthatthereisthisextrawatervapor

lurkingaroundintheatmospherethanthereusedtobesay

30yearsago.

CONNECTING

THEDOTS


42/56

ProfDavidKaroly

Whatwehavebeenabletoseeisclearevidenceofan

increasingtrendinhotextremes,reducBonsincold

extremesandwiththeincreasesinhotextremesandmorefrequentextremefiredangerdays.

"WhatitmeansfortheAustraliansummerisanincreased

frequencyofhotextremes,morehotdays,moreheatwaves

andmoreextremebushfiredaysandthat'sexactlywhat

we'vebeenseeingtypicallyoverthelastdecadeandwewill

seeevenmorefrequentlyinthefuture.

ProfRossGarnautThefailureofourgeneraBononclimatechangemiBgaBon

wouldleadtoconsequencesthatwouldhaunthumanityto

theendofBme.CONN

ECTING

THEDOTS

h h ld L h d


43/56

WhatweshouldsayConnecLngthedots

InAustraliaandaroundtheworld,peopleareexperiencing

recordtemperatures,heatwaves,bushfiresandflooding.

Thisextremeweatheriswhatclimatechangefeelslike,andit

willgetworseifweconBnuetoburnfossilfuelssuchas.

Whenwelivethrougha47CdayinVictoria(2009),or15daysin

arowover35CinAdelaide(2008),orexperienceeightheatwavesinonePerthsummer(2012),orthenaBonwiderecord

extremeheatwaveinJan2013,weareexperiencingthefuture.

Whenweexperiencetheextremefloodingof2010and2011in

northernAustralia,orweestsummeronrecordinVictoriain

2010-11,weareexperiencingthefuture.

Ifwedonotact,mostofAustraliawillexperienceextreme

temperatures*ofmorethan50degreesthiscentury.CONNECTING

THED

OTS


44/56

THEP

OLICYP

ARADIGM Thegivingupparadigm

Weareheadingto4degrees

Howcanweadaptto4degrees?(Wecant!)

2degreesisallbutimpossibletoachieve

Whatisntsaid

2degreesisalsoacatastrophe

Wecangetbacktoasafeclimate

Itwilltakeextraordinarymeasures


45/56

THEP

OLICYP

ARADIGM

DavidRoberts

TEXtalk

A4CfutureisincompaBblewithanorganisedglobal

community.Prof.KevinAnderson

CO2 with 6%/year Emissions Cut and Reforestation


46/56

EMIS

SIONSCENARI

OS

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150275

300

325

350

375

400

425CO2 with 6%/year Emissions Cut and Reforestation

CO2(ppm)

(a)

30

40

50

60

CO2(ppm)

Hansens350ppmscenario

6%annualreducBoninCO2

emissionsstarBng2013plus

100billiontonnesofreforestaBonbetween2031

and2080reducesCO2to


47/56

EMIS

SIONSCENARI

OS

itisdifficulttoenvisageanythingotherthana

plannedeconomicrecessionbeingcompaBblewith

stabilisaBonatorbelow650ppmvCO2e.

KevinAnderson&Aliceows2008

Realclothesfor

the

emperor

Kevin

Anderson

PDF


48/56

LIMITSTOGROWT

H

Areweheading

overacliff?

JorgenRanders

PaulGilding

GrahamTurner

Paul&AnneEhrlich

DavidRoberts

GeorgeMonbiot

NaomiKlein


49/56

A40-year-oldmodelandforecastsoftheglobaleconomic

andenvironmentalsystemthatmanyhadrelegatedtothe

dustbinofhistoryappearstobestandingthetestofBmesurprisinglywell.TheinsightandmessagesofThelimitsto

growthstandasawarningofpotenBalglobalcollapse

perhapsmoreimminentthangenerallyrecognised.

GrahamTurner,CSIRO,2012

LIMITSTOGROWT

H

RevisiLng

theimits

toGrowth

scenariosaer40

years


50/56

imitstogrowth:collapseormanagedchange?

AcceleraBnggrowthcannotlastforever IncreasingpolluBonandecosystemdegradaBon,and

DepleBngnon-renewableresourcesleadsto IncreasedcostsofextracBonandlossofcapitalinvestment

forothersectorsasresourcesdeplete

Climatechangeimpactsonwater,crops,food,wheretolive ConBnuingdownthispathwillleadto Overshootandcollapse Sochangeinbehaviourandtechnologyrequired Choiceiscollapseormanageddecline(newsoluBons) utsoluBonsandimplementaBondelaybecause Alldecisionaremadeinacontext Andthecontextinfluencesthedecisions

LIMITSTOGROWT

H


51/56

POLITICALPARADIG

M

Thecontextofsocietysdecision-makingtoday

Post-wargrowthandprosperityparadigm HappinessviaconBnuedeconomicgrowthbased

onfossilfuels

Modern,deregulatedcapitalism,basedon: efficiencyofmarketsoluBons self-correcBngabilityofdemocraBcgovernments benefitbasedonincreasingaffluence increasedpublicwelfarethroughtrade&globalisaBon ThatisTheindustrialrevoluLonparadigm utthisisnowaworldofsystemicunsustainability OverconsumpBon,socialisolaBon,poorermentalhealth &mulB-systemscrisis(climate,ecosystems,resources,etc) SocivilisaLonisonthebrinkofcollapse


52/56

POLITICALPARADIG

M

Anewparadigmforclimatechange

Andersonandows,NatureClimateChange2:63964

Putbluntly,climatechangecommitmentsareincompaBble

withshort-tomedium-termeconomicgrowth(for10to20

years).Moreover,workonadapBngtoclimatechange

suggeststhateconomicgrowthcannotbereconciledwiththe

breadthandrateofimpactsasthetemperaturerisestowards

4Candbeyond.Awayfromthemicrophoneanddespiteclaimsof

'greengrowth',fewifanyscienBsts

workingonclimatechangewould

disagreewiththebroadthrustof

thiscandidconclusion.Theelephant

intheroomsitsundisturbedwhile

collecBveacquiescenceandcogniBve

dissonancetrampleallwhodaretoaskdifficultquesBons.

NATURECLIMATECHANGE | VOL2| SEPTEMBER2 012| www.nature.com/natureclimatechange 639

.

*,

, ,

.

* : . .

1. , . . . . 2 1 1 1 1 ).. , . . . . . . 2 1 1 ) .

3. , . . . , . .T. . .

, 1 ).. , . . 2 33 ).. , . . . . . . :// . .

/1 .1 1 / . . 11. . 3 ).. , . . : // . . / 1 .1 11 1/ . 1

. 1 . . ).. , . . . 2 31 ).. , ., , . , . . . 1 1 1 1).. , . . S 3 1 ).

.

-- .

COMMENTARY:

A new paradigm forclimate changeKevin Anderson and Alice Bows

How climate change science is conducted, communicated and translated into policy must be radicallytransformed if dangerous climate change is to be averted.

With the Rio+20 conference onsustainable development nowover, it remains unclear how

much attention policymakers, businessesand the public paid to scientic analysesof climate change. A question alsoremains as to how impartial, objectiveand direct scientists were in presentingtheir evidence; politicians may wellhave le Rio without understanding the

viability and implications of propose d low-carbon pathways.We urgently need to acknowledge that

the development needs of many countriesleave the rich western nations with littlechoice but to immediately and severelycurb their greenhouse gas emissions 1,2. Butacademics may again have contributedto a misguided belief that commitmentsto avoid warming of 2C can still berealized with incremental adjustments toeconomic incentives. A carbon tax here, a

little emissions trading there and the oddvoluntary agreement thrown in for goodmeasure will not be sucient.

Scientists may argue that it is notour responsibility anyway and that it ispoliticians who are really to blame. escientic community can meet next year tocommunicate its latest model results andreiterate how climate change commitmentsand economic growth go hand in hand.

Many policymakers (and some scientists)believe that yet another year will not matterin the grand scheme of things, but thisoverlooks the fundamental tenet of climatescience: emissions are cumulative.

Long-term and end-point targets(for example, 80% by 2050) have noscientic basis. What governs futureglobal temperatures and other adverseclimate impacts are the emissions fromyesterday, today and those released in thenext few years. Delaying an agreement on

meaningful cuts to emissions increases therisk of exposing many already vulnerablecommunities to higher temperaturesand worsening climate-related impacts.Yet, behind the cosy rhetoric of naivelyoptimistic science and policy, there is littleto suggest that existing mitigation proposalswill deliver anything but rising emissionsover the coming decade or two.

Hope and judgementere are many reasons why climate sciencehas become intertwined with politics, to theextent that providing impartial scienticanalysis is increasingly challenging andchallenged. On a personal level, scientistsare human too. Many have chosen toresearch climate change because theybelieve there is value in applying scienticrigour to an important global issue. It isnot surprising then that they also hopethat it is still possible to avoid dangerous

2012 MacmillanPublishersLimited.All rightsreserved


53/56

POLITICALPARADIG

M

Changingthecontext:acLonatemergencyspeed&scale

Timeisshort,thecrisisisnow Thereisachanceforabeerworld,butinshortrunitis Achoicebetween2dystopias(discomfortnowormorelater) SomeverysignificantsocialandeconomicdisrupBonsnow

whilewemakethetransiBonveryquickly

OrastateofpermanentandescalaBngdisrupBonastheplanetsclimateheadsintoterritorywheremostpeopleandmostspecieswillnotsurvive

Ourtasknowistocharttheleast-worstoutcome; Thiswillnotbepainless,andpeoplewillneedtoacBvelyunderstandandparBcipateinsomepersonally-disrupBve

measures,buttheywilldosobecausetheyhavelearned

thatthetransiBonplansarebothfairandnecessary,andthe

otherchoiceisunspeakable


54/56

ScienLstsstandup

ThescienBstshavelostpaBencewithourcarefullyconstructedmessagesbeinglostinthepoliBcalnoise.And

wearenowpreparedtostandupandsayenoughisenough.Prof.KevinAnderson

Weneeda(sortof)global-scaleeffortonthisthatisakintopreparingforawar,actually.Prof.MaEngland

Wearenotdealingwithit(climate)intermsofthedangerthatthisrepresents:itslikeawar.DrDanielPauly.

"Wehaveacrisis,anemergency,butpeopledon'tknowthat...There'sabiggapbetweenwhat'sunderstoodabout

globalwarmingbythescienBficcommunity&whatisknownbythepublic&policymakers.DrJamesHansen

Virtuallyallofus(scienBsts)arenowconvincedthatglobalwarmingposesaclearandpresentdangertocivilizaBon.

DrLonnieThompson

POLITICALPARADIG

M

k b f i L


55/56

Ourtasks:AsoberassessmentofoursituaLon

MakethepoliBcsfitthescience,dontwaterdownthesciencetofitthepoliBcs

Tellthebigstory,setouttofullysolvetheproblem Courageous,consistentpublicleadershipforasafeclimate Understandthatpolicyisanoutcomeofpower,nota

meansofachievingit

Commongoals LocalmobilisaBon,unitedacBon ConnecttoconservaBvevoters

Makingclimateanissueaboutnow,notthefuture(connectthedots)

Honestyaboutourtask Flexibilityandopportunity

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Werespondwelltoanemergency,but

globalwarmingisanemergencytoo.

TheAgeeditorial,16January2011

"Thisisanemergencyandfor

emergencysituaBonsweneed

emergencyacBon.

UNSecretaryGeneral,anKi-moon,November12,2007

Climate change in black and white

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