Climate Change Implications for South Asia
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Transcript of Climate Change Implications for South Asia
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Climate Change Implications for South Asia
bySiddharth Chatpalliwar Vasudha Foundation
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Broad Outline-
• Highlights of IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report• Comparison of the Fourth and Fifth
Assessment Reports• Challenges posed by climate change for South
Asia• Key messages for South Asia.
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Highlights of AR 51. Human activity- greater than 95% chance that human
activities are the dominant cause of observed warming since the 1950s.
2. Global changes- estimated warming of 0.85 degrees Celsius since 1880, with the fastest rate of warming in the Arctic.
3. Sea- level rise- Greater that 66% chance that the Arctic Ocean will be ice free during a greater part of the summer before 2050 under a high emission scenario.
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Human influence on the climate system
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4. Surface warming pause- the recent reduction in surface warming is probably due to a redistribution of heat in the ocean, volcanic eruptions, and the recent minimum in the 11-year solar cycle.
5. Cumulative carbon budget- a GHG emissions budget of 840Gt of carbon has been identified. More than half of that (over 531GtC) has already been emitted.
6. Land based food systems- climate change to affect food security in areas where most of the world’s food production occurs.
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Comparison between AR4 and AR5
• Global sea level is expected to rise more by 2100 than previously projected.
• There is less confidence that global average rainfall has increased in the past, but greater confidence that it will increase in the future.
• No change to earlier conclusion regarding trends in flooding.
• No change to earlier conclusions about the likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity.
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Challenges for South Asia• Temperature rise- average annual temperatures could rise by
more than 2°C over land in most of South Asia by the mid-21st century and exceed 3°C under a high emissions scenario.
• Rainfall trends- by mid-21st century southern areas of Asia will experience more rainfall. Rainfall will be more extreme near the centres of tropical cyclones making landfall in south asia.
• Sea level rise- magnitude of sea level rise by the century’s end implies increased risks for South Asia’s coastal settlements particularly if combined with changes in cyclone frequency or intensity.
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• Coastal systems- sea level rise will lead to submergence, coastal flooding, and erosion.
• Climate change will cause declines in agricultural productivity in many sub-regions of Asia, for crops such as rice and wheat. This could lead to higher food prices and living costs, malnutrition, and worsened rural poverty.
• Marine systems- higher latitudes will see more biodiversity while marine population will decline in tropical latitudes.
• Flood damage- risk of floods poses a threat to infrastructure, livelihoods, and settlements.
• Heat related mortality is another major challenge.
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Projected Precipitation change in South Asia
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Key messages for South Asia
• South Asia’s climate is already changing and its impacts are already being felt.
• Mitigation for decarbonizing the economy is absolutely essential to reduce the impacts of climate change.
• Some low carbon options may be less costly in the long run but could offer new economic opportunities for South Asia.
• South Asia stands to benefit from integrated climate adaptation, mitigation, and development approaches.
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Thank You!