Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and Perceptions...directive of the IPCC of not publishing draft...
Transcript of Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and Perceptions...directive of the IPCC of not publishing draft...
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Climate Change: Impacts,
Solutions, and Perceptions OLLI January 2013
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Note that some of the slides for this lecture have
been removed to be in compliance with the
directive of the IPCC of not publishing draft results
of Assessment Report #5
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Climate Change: Impacts,
Solutions, and Perceptions
• Gary Oberts and Dennis Silverman, moderators
• Joint Program of UCI OLLI, George Mason
University OLLI, and NOAA (National
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
- Climate Change Office)
• Filmed at GMU OLLI spring 2011
• Conduct of class
• Series of eight DVDs
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January 7
– The discovery of global warming - a history of climate change.
– James Fleming, Colby College History Department
• January 14
– What is the state of the climate today? – Deke Arndt, Chief, Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA National
Climatic Data Center
• January 21
– What is the difference between “weather" and "climate"? – Dr. Wayne Higgins, Director, NOAA Climate Prediction Center
• January 28
– How global climate change impacts the United States
– Anthony C. Janetos, Director, Joint Global Change Research Institute (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland)
Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and
Perceptions – Fall 2012 (part 1)
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• February 19
– Ocean acidification and the increase of greenhouse gases.
– Dr. Christopher L. Sabine, Oceanographer, NOAA Pacific Marine National Laboratory, Seattle
• February 26
– America’s choices for mitigation of climate change impacts – Robert W. Fri, Resources for the Future and Claudia Mengelt,
National Research Council (NAS)
• March 5
– Ethics and issues surrounding geo-engineering as a strategy to mitigate climate change
– Dr. Michael MacCracken, Climate Institute, Washington, D.C.
• March 12
– American attitudes and opinions on global warming
– Dr. Matthew Nisbit, American University, School of Communication
Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and
Perceptions – Spring 2013 (part 2)
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Major Information Sources
• NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin.)
• IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – United Nations Environmental Program and World Meteorological Organization, 195 member countries)
• NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), and JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory)
• National Academies (Science and Engineering) and its National Research Council (NRC)
• U.S. Global Change Research Program (13 Fed. Agencies)
• CA Climate Change Center (core research at Scripps and UCB) and Climate Action Team (state agencies)
• National Science Foundation
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• Climate peer-reviewed literature
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Data Collection Techniques
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Tem
pera
ture
Weather
“Weather” vs. “Climate”
Time
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Climate Change: Impacts, Solutions, and
Perceptions – Opening Remarks
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2012 Climate Year
• Record Arctic ice loss and record acceleration of
Greenland and west Antarctica melt
• “Unprecedented” Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy,
losses $70B+ and rising; 11 weather related
events over $1B in damages; 350 lives lost
• Two record US heat waves; hottest July ever
(recorded since mid-1800s)
• From June 2011 – Sept. 2012 every month had
“above normal” average temperature (record)
• Biggest drought over grain belt since 1950s
• Above average fire season in US west
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21st Century Year
Rank 1 = Warmest Period of Record: 1880–2011 Anomaly °C Anomaly °F
2011 11 0.51 0.92
2010 1 (tie) 0.64 1.15
2009 7 (tie) 0.58 1.04
2008 13 0.50 0.90
2007 7 (tie) 0.58 1.04
2006 6 0.59 1.06
2005 1 (tie) 0.64 1.15
2004 9 0.56 1.01
2003 4 0.61 1.10
2002 5 0.60 1.08
2001 10 0.54 0.97
2012
~8th
21st Century (2001–2011) Annual Temperature
Ranks Since 1880
NOAA/NCDC
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Some Factors Influencing Climate
• Greenhouse gasses (GHGs) – CO2, methane (NH4), nitrous oxides (N2O), water
vapor, halocarbons (CFCs), ozone (O3)
• Vegetation (coverage and type)
• Ocean circulation
• Ice/snow (presence, reflection/albedo)
• Volcanic activity (can help cooling but minimal lately)
• Solar radiation variation (no change since 1978)
• Earth tilt (obliquity) and rotation around the sun (eccentricity)
Adapted from NAS, 2008
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500-900??*
Last ice age peaked
~20,000 years ago,
sea levels about 390’
(120m) lower
Sea levels 13-20’ (4-6m)
higher than today with
temps 5-9ºF higher
(~2100 prediction)
Reference dates
- Today 393 ppm
- IPCC 2007 380
ppm
- IPCC 2002 360
ppm
*AR5 “most likely” estimate
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Dec. 2012 = 393 ppm
Avg. peak CO2 levels for last
400,000 years = 280 ppm
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Graphs from the Hadley Climate Center in England