Climate Change Impacts on Western Livestock (as seen through the lens of impacts in the Pacific Northwest)

Lara Whitely Binder

UW Climate Impacts Group

2015 Waste to Worth Conference

March 30, 2015 Climate Science in the

Public Interest

The UW Climate Impacts Group

Science for climate resilience

Working since 1995 to….

• Produce scientific information that is both useful to and used by decision makers

• Conduct decision-relevant climate research for a range of sectors and issues

• Support the interpretation and application of climate science in decision making

Northwest Climate Science Center

Climate change will affect agriculture and livestock production via:

Physiological impacts on animals, plants, & people

Changes in crop yield, range, productivity

When, where, and to what degree these impacts matter will vary on location, the rate of change, and the ability to adapt. The strength of the ag community is its ability to adapt, but additional tools and costs for managing impacts may be required.

Reduced summer water supply

Increasing fire risk, invasives in rangelands

(very low emissions)

(low emissions)

(medium emissions)

(high emissions)

Significant 21st century warming is projected

(2071-2099)

Figure 2.9, US National Assessment (2014), changes relative to 1970-99

Changes in precipitation are more variable

Figure 2.15, US National Assessment (2014)2071-2099 (compared to 1970-1999)

Figure 2.19, US National Assessment (2014)

Today’s 20-year extreme precipitation event occurs 2-5x as often by the end of the 21st century

Changes for 2081-2100, relative to 1981-2000

( i.e., events become 0-7x times more frequent)

Water supply Changes in yield, production

Rangeland fire risk, forage quality

Milk and beef production

Four Key Issues Affecting the PNW Livestock Industry

All Scenarios Indicate Less Snow

-44%

Med

ium

Em

issi

on

s Sc

ena

rio

-29% -65%

Apr. 1 Snow Water Equivalent1916-2006

Why? Spring snowpack is projected to decline as more winter precipitation falls as rain rather than snow,

especially in warmer mid-elevation basins. Also, snowpack will melt earlier with warmer spring temperatures.

Elsner et al. 2010

s s s

October April September

Yakima Basin

Streamflow timing and volume affected

Naturalized flows (without the influence of dams); Elsner et al. 2010

…and increased demand

among competing summer

water uses (ag, M&I, hydro, fish)

Water shortage years in the Yakima

Basin projected to increase from 14% of

years historically (1979-1999) to 43 to

68% of years by the 2080s (2070-2099)

for a low and a medium greenhouse gas

scenario, respectively.

(Vano et al. 2010)

Bottom Line for Water:

Decreasing Summer Water Supply…

Photo: Climate Impacts Group

Four Key Issues Affecting the PNW Livestock Industry

Water supply Food production

Rangeland fire risk, forage quality

Milk and beef production

Key drivers of impacts (can be + or -):

• Increased summer heat stress

• Decreased summer water supply

• Longer growing season

• More winter precip, milder winters

• CO2 fertilization effect (thru mid-century)

• Changes in plant diseases, pests, weeds

Food production is fairly adaptable, although

some crops and locations are more vulnerable

Annual and perennial crops are

projected to experience a mix of

increases and decreases in

production.

Four Key Issues Affecting the PNW Livestock Industry

Water supply Food production

Rangeland fire risk, forage quality

Milk and beef production

Rangelands

• Temperature effects will be more beneficial in rangeland located in cooler climates

• Experiments with three species of shortgrass steppe species found reduced digestibility with higher CO2

• Warming could exacerbate pressure from invasive species, e.g., cheatgrass and yellow starthistle

• Grazing systems in arid to semiarid zones may experience declines in productivity and profitability.

Primary issues: changes in productivity, nutritional value, and invasive species, fire risk

(Eigenbrode et al. 2013)

NRC 2011

Wildfire Risk Increases

Projected increase In area burned associated with a +2.2°F increase in temperature

Pasture and Forage Land

• Relatively little research on pasture grasses

• Experiments find reduced nutritional quality (less protein, nitrogen) and decreased digestibility

• Climate and crop-growth models suggest an increase in alfalfa production in the PNW, assuming water is not limiting.

Photo: DNR

(Eigenbrode et al. 2013)

Primary issues: changes in productivity, nutritional value, and invasive species

Four Key Issues Affecting the PNW Livestock Industry

Water supply Food production

Rangeland fire risk, forage quality

Milk and beef production

Beef Cattle

• Increasing CO2 increased time required to achieve finish weights for study covering 7 western states (Frank 2001)

– Doubling CO2 (560 ppm): # of days increased 2.2-2.5%

– Tripling of CO2 (840 ppm): # of days increased 15%

• Projected losses to WA/OR beef industry: (Climate Leadership Initiative 2009)

– 2020s: $7 million (1.5%)

– 2040s: $11 million (2.4%)

– 2080s: $67 million (14.8%)

Eigenbrode et al. 2014

Photo: WSU

Milk production decreases with increasing temperature

Decreases expected in WA but state may fare better than other milk-producing regions. Temp and humidity are important.

Mauger et al., in press. Impacts of Climate Change on Milk Production in the United States.

Moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario (A1B)

Recent Synthesis Products

Snover et al. 2013 (Dec)National Climate Assessment, 2014 Dalton et al. 2013 (Nov)

http://cses.washington.edu/cig/reports.shtmlhttp://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

The Climate Impacts Group

www.cig.uw.edu

cig@uw.edu

Northwest Climate Science Center

Save the Date!

6th Annual Pacific Northwest

Climate Science Conference

November 4-5, 2015Coeur d'Alene, ID