Climate change impacts
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Transcript of Climate change impacts
Climate change impacts
Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
OUTLINE
• Climate change scenario logics
• Climate change as environmental issue
• Climate change as a problem of national and international security
• Risks of mis-understanding of scenarios by policy makers and politicians
Key QuestionsIncreased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
Water Increased
demand 30% by 2030
(IFPRI)
FoodIncreased demand
50% by 2030
(FAO)
Climate Change
1. Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably?
2. Can we cope with the future demands on water?
3. Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty?
4. Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change?
5. Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems?
Biodiversity
The Perfect Storm?
(Beddington, 2009)
Exploration of future climate is relevant…
• Where are we heading?• Actions now influence the future:i. Inertia (lifetime avg. power plant > 40 years;
lifetime CO2 in atmosphere > 100 yearsii. Climate system may change irreversibly, we
may pass thresholds…• We shall (or need) to act:i. Prevent certain futures from happeningii. Adapt to certain futures
The Global Scenario Group "taxonomy of the future”
http://www.gtinitiative.org/perspectives/taxonomy.html
Business class
Over the edge
Creative societies
Shared responsabilities
Markets first
Tribal society
Security first
Battlefield
Cybertopia
‘Clash of civilizations’
Barbarization
Prism
Just do it
Ecologically driven
Regional stewardship
Global sustainability
Local stewardship
Provincial enterprise
‘The end of history’
‘No Logo’
‘Our Common Future ‘
B2
A1 B1
A2
Hyper individualism
Changing courseNew global age
Have & have- nots
The hundred flowers
Sustainability first
Policy first
Great transitions
Turbulent neighbourhoods
Cultural pluralism
Voluntary simplicity
Market World
Transformed World
Fortress World
New Empires
Change without progress
There are many types of scenarios
SRES scenarios logics• Matrixes from pairs of independent and
unrelated axes. • Use axes to deduce scenario logics for the
four quadrants of the matrix (and name them).
Examples: scenario logics (deductive)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
MEA IPCC (SRES)
www.peer.eu
From exploratory to anticipatory scenarios
IPCC new approach with scenariosRepresentative Concentration Pathways
Vir: Van Vuuren et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
Old /SRES and new /RCPs scenarios
Knutti & Sedlacek (2012)
Primary energy and oil consumption
T Q
Best Case
Most likely
Worst Case
Provisional Scenario Analysis 2050-2100
High Climate Sensitivity
Low Climate Sensitivity
FailedMitigationPolicies
Successful MitigationPolicies
Worst Case
6-8ºC
2-5ºC
3-6ºC
Best Case2-3ºC
Europe: Geographic ChangesEurope: Geographic Changes
+10
-1
+50%
-50%
2080-20992080-2099 Minus Minus 1980-19991980-1999 (A1B)(A1B)
Climate change effects on hydroelectric production potential
Relative change of average (1961-90) total discharge volumes calculated with WaterGAP 2.1 for the
2070s
SCENARIOS
• Have the ability to address complex issues in an integrated manner.
• Have the ability to deal with surprises, system changes, bifurcations.
• Are an excellent tool for communication
• Possibilities for participation are large.
Communication between policy-makers and scientists
”Speaking truth to power”
Aaron Wildavsky
Scenarios communication problem: differences in attitudes and behaviors
(Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000)
Science GovernmentProbability accepted Certainty desired
Anticipatory Time ends at next election
Flexibility Rigidity
Problem oriented Service oriented
Discovery oriented Mission oriented
Failure and risk accepted Failure and risk intolerable
Innovation prized Innovation suspect
Replication essential for belief Beliefs are situational
Clientele diffuse, diverse, or not present
Clientele specific, immediate, and insistent
What is the objective when we communicate scenarios to „users“?
• To raise the awareness of politicians, managers and decision makers about the uncertainty of the future.
• To alert them to emerging problems and possible surprises in the political/business environment
• To help managers and decision makers to “think big” about a problem – creative, comprehensive, open.
What might be their (negative)reaction?
• To raise the awareness of politicians, managers and decision makers about the uncertainty of the future.
• To alert them to emerging problems and possible surprises in the political/business environment
• To help managers and decision makers to “think big” about a problem – creative, comprehensive, open.
• Raising awareness can be understood as criticism of their present program (who wants to disscuss uncertain future).
• A lot of problems already present, no need to add extra burden
• General lack of visions, shortsighted plans very common, thinking „inside the box“
Scenarios help to reduce ourover-confidence into the future
• Ignorance: our scientific understanding is incomplete (‘known unknowns’ & ‘unknown unknowns’)
• Surprise : unexpected events bound to alter future (inherent unpredictability)
• Volition: future human choices matter
Raskin et al., 2002
Understanding uncertaintyKey sources of uncertainty when looking into the future:
• The goal of scenarios is not to predict the future but to tell what decision makers need to know to take meaningful action in the present
• There is never enough information if you don’t want to decide.
• Dealing with Climate Uncertainties requires Political Leadership
The features of media reporting of climate change scenarios
• Informed Citizens is key for understanding climate change action (the lack of public understanding is a major obstacle)
• The media is an important intersection between science and civil society, acting as a frame/filter of scientific knowledge on climate change matters.
• A communication for behavoural change needs independent reporting, well-informed media and also citizens’ media.
• Local media have a crucial role to play beyond disseminating information. There is more information on global processes of climate change but much weaker information at a local level, where the actors in climate change adaptation are.
The features of media reporting of climate change scenarios (reality)
• Media coverage of climate change generally lacks in-depth analysis
• Very rarely the media present science in a responsible way (a climate-movement at the ground level is needed to put pressure on politicians)
• The framing of climate change often reinforces the uncertainty of climate change, casting not only doubts on the science of climate change but also posing reservations on the economic costs of taking action.
• The media too often give shelter to marginal positions that lie outside the scientific consensus in a proportion way bigger than their academic weight.
Warning for the policy makers and media Scenarios are not
• Predictions : A likely description of the future state of a system – thus unconditional upon major exogenous assumptions.
• Extrapolation: A continuation of a trend
• Pure speculation: Any statement on plausability is even impossible
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Information on relevant parameters
For instance,World economy in 100 Years
For instance,climate system
For instance,Weather next week
ENVSEC, 2012
Example of qualitative scenarios (narrative descriptions of future developments(i.e. presented as storylines) Communication?
Participants formulated three distinct scenarios:
1.Clueless, 2.Green Oasis and 3.Chameleon
Another example of qualitative scenarios Communication? Effect? NONE
3 scenarios for Slovenia (2008)
Projekt načrtovanja scenarijev Projekt načrtovanja scenarijev Scenariji razvoja Slovenije do leta 2035 Scenariji razvoja Slovenije do leta 2035
Trendi in priložnosti v času podnebnih Trendi in priložnosti v času podnebnih spremembsprememb
Leta 2008Leta 2008 v okviru Službe Vlade za v okviru Službe Vlade za razvoj, s pomočjo agencije Scenario razvoj, s pomočjo agencije Scenario Development Development
tri zgodbe = scenarijitri zgodbe = scenariji
3 scenariji3 scenariji: ključni : ključni poudarki poudarki
Brez idej :Brez idej : zanikanjezanikanje
Zelena oazaZelena oaza:: ozaveščenost in ozaveščenost in izobraževanjeizobraževanje
KameleonKameleon:: premalo in prepoznopremalo in prepozno
3 scenariji3 scenariji: ključni : ključni poudarki poudarki
BREZ IDEJBREZ IDEJ – – odsotnost vladnega delovanja in zanikanje odsotnost vladnega delovanja in zanikanje motečih učinkov na okolje - upanje, da se problemi rešijo sami motečih učinkov na okolje - upanje, da se problemi rešijo sami od sebe. od sebe. Korektivni ukrepi: ko je že prepozno.Korektivni ukrepi: ko je že prepozno. Vse bolj ekstremni vremenski pojavi Vse bolj ekstremni vremenski pojavi Ni tehnološkega razvoja Ni tehnološkega razvoja Slovenija prostor za umazane Slovenija prostor za umazane tehnologije. tehnologije.
ZELENA OAZAZELENA OAZA – – zgodnji ukrepi, tehnološke spremembe, zgodnji ukrepi, tehnološke spremembe, spremembe stališč in vrednot.spremembe stališč in vrednot. Politike in predpisi: se izvajajo v največji možni meri.Politike in predpisi: se izvajajo v največji možni meri.Gospodarstvo: manj ogljično intenzivno. Gospodarstvo: manj ogljično intenzivno. Splošni nacionalni ponos, “sreča” Splošni nacionalni ponos, “sreča” doseganje trajne doseganje trajne spremembe.spremembe.Globalno sodelovanje. Globalno sodelovanje.
KAMELEON – zgodba evolucije: majhna, posamezna KAMELEON – zgodba evolucije: majhna, posamezna prilagajanja; veliko majhnih korakov brez nove poti.prilagajanja; veliko majhnih korakov brez nove poti.Ni proaktivne naravnanosti.Ni proaktivne naravnanosti.Posamezni ukrepi, brez usklajevanja ali prepričanja.Posamezni ukrepi, brez usklajevanja ali prepričanja.
Climate change •is a threat multiplier•will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many societies•increases number and intensity of conflicts and reduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution •leads to new lines of conflict in the international arena
Climate change as a threat to national security
•The scarcity of water is replacing oil as a flashpoint for conflict between nations in an increasingly urbanized world
•The danger of international competition for adequate water resources will grow inevitably. The increased demand for water could produce intense competition for this essential substance
http://www.availableimages.com/movies/2008/bluegold-worldwaterwars/pictures-bluegold-worldwaterwars_pph_4.htmlhttp://
Climate change effects & migration: Hotspots & Trajectories
WGBU 2007 (modified)
Main trajectories
A Multiplier for Instability
Water Scarcity Demography Crop Decline Hunger Coastal Risks Recent Conflicts
National Security – Climate change linkages
• Climate change could trigger national and international distributional conflicts and intensify problems already hard to manage such as state failure, the erosion of social order, and rising violence
• Climate change will degrade human security and livelihoods via increased risks of disasters, food insecurity, energy poverty etc.
• Recommendation for states policies In every country National Security Strategy should
directly address the threat of climate change to the state’s national security interests.
Evaluate preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather events
Evaluate the capacity of all levels of government and other institutions to respond to the consequences of climate change.
Solutions?
• There is no military solution to climate security, but mainly disaster prevention through good governance, human rights, de-marginalization and empowerment
• Conflict prevention regarding climate change means mitigation and adaptation – ambitious global climate policy must be put into operation
• Mitigation and adaptation serve as prevention of non-climate-change-connected threats and conflicts e.g. energy security, water and food security
Disarray
Mispricing
Disinterest
Maladministration Impatience
Ignorance
Confusion
Regulatory barriers
Cultural barriers
Lack of information
Split Incentives
High discount rates
Externalities and price structures
Policy in a changing climateBarriers
Policy in a changing climateHopefully....
Human-driven erosion of resilience
Source: IGBP 2007