CLIMATE CHANGE - HERE EVSC 100 1 climate change impact.

CLIMATE CHANGE - HERE

EVSC 100

1climate change impact

Reminder

climate change impact

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EVSC 100: Exam next time we meet EVSC 305: Outline due November 3;

Exam November 13; Prospectus November 18

Reminder..

high degree of probability (98%) that human activities have caused a substantial net warming influence on climate since 1750

global surface air temperature increased from 1850 to 2005 by 0.76ºC.

linear warming trend over the last 50 years is recorded by 0.13ºC per decade

Plus, there has been an increase in the number of heat waves, a decrease in the frequency and duration of frosts, and an increase in extreme events frequency and intensity in many parts of the world.

recent studies found that the Arab region experienced an uneven increase in surface air temperature ranging from 0.2 to 2.0ºC that occurred from 1970 to 2004

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climate change impact, AFED

Tomorrow…


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For the next 20 years: A warming of about 0.2 C Even IF the [ ] of all greenhouse gases and

aerosols had been kept constant at 2000 year levels, another warming of 0.1 C / decade would be expected

GHGs emissions (2000)

33 thousand Tg (teragram)

Arab: 4.2% of total world emissions KSA Egypt Algeria

North America 37.1 South America 22.9Africa (non-Arab)

22.8 Central America and

Caribbean 5.4 Arab countries 4.2 Asia (non-Arab) 3.6Europe 2.2 Oceania 1.7

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Impact high…


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Semi-arid and arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate change

If temperature gets higher If precipitation gets lower pressure on natural and physical

systems would be intensified

The Arab region will…


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Face an increase of 2 to 5.5 C in surface temperature by 2100

Face a decrease in precipitation from 0 to 20%

shorter winters dryer and hotter summers higher rate of heat waves higher level of weather variability more frequent occurrence of extreme

weather events

Sea Level Rise

Let’s talk details:8


Impact of Sea-Level Rise


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Important consequence of climate change and a serious global threat

Rate of sea level rise was observed to be 1.8 mm per year from 1961-2003, and higher from 1993-2003 (3.1 mm)

Total 20th century rise: 0.17 m Continued growth of GHG SLR of 1 to 3 m + very

quick breakup of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets = 5 m SLR

Nature of impacts of SLR changes from place-to-place and from country-to-country. Why?

Highest exposure: river deltas. Low-lying coastal urban areas. Small islands

UN-Habitat's State of the World's Cities 2008/09


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During the 1900s, sea levels rose by an estimated 17cm; global mean projections for sea level rise between 1990 and 2080 range from 22cm to 34cm, according to the UN-Habitat researchers.

The report points out that by 2070, urban populations in river delta cities, such as Dhaka, Kolkata (India), Yangon (Myanmar), and Hai Phong (on the coast near Hanoi in Vietnam), which already experience a high risk of flooding, will join the group of populations most exposed to this danger. Port cities in Bangladesh, China, Thailand, Vietnam, and India will have joined the ranks of cities whose assets are most at risk.

African coastal cities that could be severely be affected by rising sea levels include Abidjan (Cote d'Ivoire), Accra (Ghana), Alexandria (Egypt), Algiers (Algeria), Cape Town (South Africa), Casablanca (Morocco), Dakar (Senegal), Dar es Salaam (Tanzania), Djibouti (Djibouti), Durban (South Africa), Freetown (Sierra Leone), Lagos (Nigeria), Libreville (Gabon), Lome (Togo), Luanda (Angola), Maputo (Mozambique), Mombasa (Kenya), Port Louis (Mauritius), and Tunis (Tunisia).


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Impact of SLR - Egypt

A 1 m SLR 6 million people 12 to 15% of

agricultural land in the Nile Delta

A 0.5 m SLR A loss of more than

90% of the governorates under risk

Loss of 65% in industrial sector

Loss of 55% in tourism sector

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Impact of SLR

Qatar 13% land loss

with 5 m rise Egypt

10% of pop impacted with 1 m rise

20% - 5 m rise UAE and Tunisia

1 m – 5% of pop

Urban areas also… 5% in Egypt, Libya,

UAE, and Tunisia with 1 m SLR

6 to 7 % with 2 m SLR

10% with 5 m SLR

High uncertainty

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Impact on freshwater sources14


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Water and Climate Change


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(1) The distribution of precipitation in space and time is very uneven, leading to tremendous temporal variability in water resources If all the freshwater on the planet were divided equally among the global population, there would be 5 000 to 6 000 m3 of water available for everyone, every year.

(2) the rate of evaporation varies a great deal, depending on temperature and relative humidity, which impact the amount of water available to replenish groundwater supplies.

The combination of shorter duration but more intense rainfall (meaning more runoff and less infiltration) combined with increased evapotranspiration (the sum of evaporation and plant transpiration from the earth's land surface to atmosphere.) and increased irrigation is expected to lead to groundwater depletion.

Hydrological cycle18


Key changes to the hydrological cycle


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… associated with an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting changes in climate include:

* Changes in the seasonal distribution and amount of precipitation * An increase in precipitation intensity under most situations * Changes in the balance between snow and rain * Increased evapotranspiration and a reduction in soil moisture * Changes in vegetation cover resulting from changes in

temperature and precipitation * Consequent changes in management of land resources * Accelerated melting glacial ice * Increases in fire risk in many areas * Increased coastal inundation and wetland loss from sea level

rise * Effects of CO2 on plant physiology, leading to reduced

transpiration and increased water use efficiency

Status of freshwater here


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Reminder: most of the Arab countries are located in arid and semi-arid regions; low and limited water resources + high evaporation

Total water resources = total renewable ground water + internal surface water resources + external surface water resources

Water resources here


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Iraq, Sudan and Egypt Highest annual water resources ( > 50 billion

m3/yr) More than 50% of their surface resources are

external Algeria, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco,

Somalia, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen Between 5 to 30 billion m3/yr

Rest < 5 billion m3/year

rainfall


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Varied Lebanon and Syria: average 600 and 300

mm/yr Move N and E to Morocco and Tunisia –

decreases to 300 mm/yr North Africa and Arab Peninsula – 130 mm/yr Rest – average – 290 mm/yr Kuwait: poorest water resources Egypt – second lowest

?


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How will sea-level rise impact freshwater? How will CC conditions impact watersheds? Due to CC and population, FAO projects that

Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria and Tunisia – severe water shortages by 2050

Water demand increasingWater supply decreasingPlus problems of accessibility of water

First order impacts…


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Mediterranean hydrological systems Wetter winters Dryer and hotter summers Increase in evaporation from water

bodies… Increase Evapotranspiration from crops

Egypt Increase the potential irrigation demand by

6 to 16% by 2100

Drought25


Impact of increasing drought


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One of the serious water related disasters threatening the Arab region for both current and future time scales

What is drought? “a temporary reduction in water or moisture

availability significantly below the normal or expected amount for specified period” (climatic viewpoint)

“a period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of precipitation to cause a serious hydrological imbalance, carrying connotation for moisture deficiency with respect to [hu]man’s usage of water” (hydrological viewpoint)

Droughts…


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Impact rain-fed agricultural production Impact water supply for domestic,

industrial, and agricultural purposes

Drought frequency


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Increased during the last 20 to 40 years in Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria and Syria Of the 22 drought years in the 20th century,

10 occurred in the last 20 years, and three were successive (1999, 2000, 2001) in Morocco

Recent droughts in Jordan and Syria worst ever recorded

Varying conditions of water shortage in Lebanon in the last 10 years

But not just droughts29


Warmer climate


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Increase risk of both droughts AND floods

Drought affected areas will (probably) increase

Extreme precipitation events likely to increase in frequency and intensity more flood risk

Yemen: drought


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SANAA, 2 September 2008 (IRIN) - Hundreds of families (totalling about 2,000 people) in the southern governorate of Abyan have begun to leave their homes due to severe drought in their mountain villages

Sirar villages are arid, barren and mountainous. Any rain that does fall quickly runs off down the steep valley sides, as there are no dams in the area to harvest rainwater.

people had installed small concrete tanks on their houses to harvest rainwater, but these had remained dry because of the lack of rain

The drought has caused damage to the livestock, beehives and farms on which local people are heavily dependent for their livelihoods.

Yemen


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Yemen Times: “The climate changes during the last few years and especially this year is a real concern for Yemen, particularly if the frequency of precipitation events diminish, putting rainfall and agriculture in peril and lead to a catastrophic drought,” said Anwar Abdulaziz, head of the Climate Change Unit in the General Authority of Environment Preservation. "Every year the rain season starts at the beginning of March, and now Yemen is in the end of April and there is still no rain. This means that Yemen is truly affected by the climate changes," said Abdulaziz.

Though his agency has yet to complete studies on exact drought percentage increase, he is sure that this year and the next year will be difficult for Yemen because of the lack of rain. According to the National Council for the Climate, there has been an increase in average temperatures in Sana’a over the last 20 years, though they do not have the exact percentage due to a lack of research. The expectation is that cities like Sana’a and Ibb will face cloudless skies and will cause more temperature rises, adds Abdulaziz.

Dubbed the 'Manhatten of the desert', Shibam's 2,000-year-old mud-brick buildings are in danger of collapsing after recent floods

Yemen: recent floods (October 2008)33


Human health


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Sea-level rise will affect groundwater aquifers in coastal areas and flood low-lying areas, reducing freshwater availability. It is estimated that by 2030 the risk of diarrhoea will be up to 10 percent higher in some countries due to climate change.

Greater migration as a result of water stress or increased food insecurity means that diseases will be transported to other regions, where they may or may not be able to survive, potentially exposing host communities to new diseases. "Policies at various levels and their implementation, however, do not reflect this principle," the authors noted.

"Improved access to clean water can reduce diarrhoea and waterborne diseases by at least 25 percent; improved sanitation is accompanied by more than a 30 percent reduction in child mortality. This urgent global challenge is pragmatically achievable, politically feasible and ethically important." (IPCC)

CLIMATE CHANGE - HERE EVSC 100 1 climate change impact.

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