Climate Change, Geology, Astronomy and Fossil Fuels · However, Individual volcanic eruptions cool...
Transcript of Climate Change, Geology, Astronomy and Fossil Fuels · However, Individual volcanic eruptions cool...
Climate Change, Geology, Astronomy and Fossil Fuels
www.RayLeonard.consulting
Planetary temperatures have varied by about 20
degrees C in the past 500 million years. In the
past 300 million years there have been two very
cold periods, including the present, bracketing
an extremely warm period. Even the more
pessimistic global warming scenarios by 2100 are
far below early Tertiary temperatures
➢Plate tectonics
➢Volcanic activity
➢ Solar Radiation
➢Ocean currents
➢Air currents
➢Atmospheric
composition
Extreme
volcanism
Opening of Drake
passage
Antarctic glaciation
Pangaea
supercontinent
Formation of
Arctic polar cap
21st century
human
warmingMilankovitch
cycles
A number of factors have long, medium
and short term influence on climate
Climate Change has been a constant through Earth’s history
Plate Tectonics: Certain configurations can
lead to extremely warm or cold climates➢ 300 MYA a multi-continental mass located near
the South pole resulted in massive glaciation
and a cold climate in early Carboniferous time
➢ By 250 MMYA the continental mass straddled
the equator, reaching both polar regions with
the lack of global current circulation resulting
in the hot Permian-Triassic climate
➢ The creation of the Drake passage, separating
South America and Antarctica, 34 MYA, allowed
formation of the Circumpolar current, resulting
in Antarctic glaciation and cooling during
Tertiary
➢ By 3 MYA, continued cooling allowed a
permanent north polar cap in the restricted
circulation Arctic Ocean, giving the planet two
polar caps for the first time, resulting in record
low temperatures
➢ Due to pace of tectonic movements, this is
not a factor in current climate change
debate
CCSM3
Volcanic activity is a factor and has varied through time
However, Individual volcanic eruptions cool the
planet because the particles ejected from
volcanoes shade incoming solar radiation. But
the largest eruptions in the past 150 years
appeared to only temporarily depress global
temperatures by 0.2-0.3 degree C in a
subsequent 1-3 year period. They did not have a
noticeable effect on CO2 atmospheric content
and are not a significant factor in the current
climate change debate.
As discussed later high atmospheric CO2 content is
associated with a warm climate. Massive volcanic
activity releases CO2 in the atmosphere. The late
Cretaceous through Paleogene was a period of
extremely high volcanic activity with the
separation of South America and Africa, followed by
the breakup of the various southern continents plus
opening of the North Atlantic. This level of
volcanic activity was far higher than the individual
eruptions we see at present.
Late-Cretaceous-Paleogene spreading and resultant volcanic activityFrom Blakey, Ross and Scotese
Solar and Planetary activity also
needs to be taken into account
Variation in the earths orbit, tilt and axis, combined
with the unbalanced distribution of the continents,
(59% of land is between 15 and 75 degrees north)
has resulted in fluctuations in solar radiation
received in the past millions of years, leading to
cycles of glaciation and warming
Increased solar activity means higher
level of solar radiation leading to
higher temperatures. (ave. 0.2 deg C
between solar max and min since
1950) The lower solar activity in the
17th century and early 19th century
corresponds to cooler global
temperatures. The past 60 years have
seen a decreasing solar max.
Observations from
satellites have confirmed
the 11 year sunspot cycles
“Little ice
age”
Universe Today
SAS, 2014
Ocean currents play a significant role in climate variation The modern ocean current pattern was established
around 34 MYA with the formation of the Antarctic
circumpolar current, isolating the continent and
initiating glaciation. Restricted circulation to the Arctic
and cooling temperatures allowed the formation of the
Artic polar cap over the Arctic ocean about 3 MYA.
El Nino, an anomalous warming of the Pacific Current, is
associated with warmer global temperatures. El Nino
currents occur at 2 to 7 year intervals. With the warming
ocean they are getting stronger; the three strongest ever
recorded have been in 1984, 1998 and 2016. Strongest El Nino associated with warmest
global temperatures ever recorded in 2016
NOAA
NOAA
Air currents and melting of the Arctic Polar Cap will also play
role in changing climate, particularly in the northern hemisphere
The Arctic and Antarctic polar ice caps have contributed to
polar climates that are separated from temperate zones by
powerful jet streams. The rapidly warming arctic is weakening
the jet stream in the northern hemisphere, allowing warm air
to reach northern latitudes (accelerating melting) and
occasionally, cold (and eventually cool) air to penetrate south.
By mid century, the northern polar cap will have largely
disappeared part of the year, making this phenomenon far more
common. Westerlies and trade winds appear to be losing
energy affecting currents in ways we are only discovering now.
NOAA
The composition of the atmosphere, in particular, Carbon Dioxide
(CO2) is tied to global temperatures throughout Earth’s history
The three major greenhouse
gases are CO2, 76% (80% of
emissions come from fossil
fuels), Methane 16% (20% from
fossil fuels) and Nitrous Oxide
6% (10% from fossil fuels)
CO2 levels in geologic history can be estimated from the fossil and
geochemical record. Actual measurement in ice cores of the past
million years have verified the methodology. The formation of the
Antarctic and Arctic ice caps, as well and the Carboniferous glaciation
corresponds to the lower CO2 levels .
Antarctic ice cap
Arctic ice cap
Carboniferous
glaciation
CO2 is the primary GHG
NOAA
Foster et al, 2017,
adapted, Montenez, 2018
Permo-Triassic heat
and extinction
Increase in CO2 adds “human-
induced factor” to natural processes
Pace of CO2
increase rising;
ave. 2 ppm/year
2000-2010,
ave. 3 ppm
2010-2019.
➢ CO2 increase coincided with industrial revolution in late 1800’s
➢ Pace increased after WW2 (1950’s) with industrial expansion in
USA, Europe, USSR and Japan
➢ Additional pulse in 21st century with industrialization of China
➢ Initial CO2 increase from coal, followed by oil with resurgence
of coal in 21st century in China
➢ Minor temperature increase until 1960
Methane Emissions: What is real story?Methane is natural gas and it is 25X more potent as GHG in long term. (80X in
short term) With the proposal of utilization of natural gas as a bridge fuel
with 60% production increase by 2040, the actual methane emissions from
natural gas production, transport and use is an important question.
• Methane concentrations are rising at almost double (257% vs 146%) the rate of CO2
since pre-industrial time.
• As a result, even though methane currently accounts for only 16% of greenhouse
gases, it is estimated to be the cause of 25% of the greenhouse gas increase
• Natural gas production has been rising at a higher rate than other fossil fuels and it
is possible that methane leaks in the production, transmission and use are a factor
in the increase in the past decade.
The biggest danger of future methane
emissions increase may come from a
different source. With the warming of
the arctic extensive melting of the
permafrost is already taking place
releasing large amounts of methane.
Source, National Geographic, 2014
Methane
emission
when
ice
cover
removed
Temperatures have not been increasing uniformly
Since 1980, land air
temperatures have been
rising at rate of 0.35 deg.
C per decade, 50% higher
than the overall rise
Arctic temperatures since 1980
are rising at TWICE the rate of
land temperatures.
Temperatures at high altitudes
in temperate latitudes are
warming at same rate as Arctic
causing rapid melting of
glaciers
NASA GISS
How are the accelerated temperature
increases affecting the polar regions?In the Arctic, the proportion of
multi year ice has dropped from
60% to 30% since 1984. When
multi year ice is gone, probably by
mid-century, the pole will be ice
free in the summer months.
Due to the warming Pacific
Ocean, West Antarctica has
experienced double the
temperature increase of the
rest of the continent since 1950
While most of
Antarctica may
take centuries to
melt, the West
Antarctica ice
sheet is in
danger of more
immediate
collapse, possibly
in this century
NASA
EFFECTS TO BE FELT IN THE 21ST CENTURYOcean acidification: approximately
30% of increased CO2 is absorbed by
ocean, reducing pH. Acidity of ocean
has increased by 30% in past half
century and will increase another 30%
by 2050. Dying of coral reefs is
“canary in coal mine” and early
indicator of major marine life
changes.
Sea Level Rise: If rate of sea level rise continues increase by 50% every 15
years, rise of 2 meters by 2100 will devastate East and Gulf Coast, USA
NOAANOAA
Source
NOAA
What has happened so far in 2019?
Despite the solar activity at a minimum
in the 11-year cycle and a weak El Nino
current, global temperatures in June
were the highest ever recorded for that
month and July was the hottest month
on the planet since temperatures have
been recorded
The weakening jet stream
allowed high pressure with North
Africa like temperatures to drift
north over Europe resulting in
temperatures around 40 deg. C in
Paris, London and Berlin. This
happened in June and July. The
heat wave headed for Greenland!Jet Stream July 24, 2019. Source
Earth Simulator, NASA. Below temp.
anomaly July 27
2019
“Wobble” in the jet stream” July 27: Greenland 20-25 degrees hotter
than normal
The events in 2019 have especially impacted the Arctic
North polar cap of 2019 has limited
solid ice by SeptemberThe heat waves of June and July drifting north
from Europe to Greenland resulted in a melt of
>40% and 60% of glacial areas, four times the
normal amount
Over 60% of Greenland surface area
melting in first week of August
The hot and dry weather caused massive
fires in Siberia, and lesser fires in Alaska
and Canada in August. Note fires in the
Amazon and Central Africa.
Areas of solid
>90% ice
Summer
melts over
4x normal
area
A look a recent geologic history shows
possibility of accelerated pace of change
Gornitz, NASA 2012
Current sea level rise has accelerated to 4.4
MM/year. During the MWP-1Ag event around 13,800
years ago, sea level rise averaged 26-53 mm/year
for several hundred years. This was likely due in
large part to breaking off of a major ice sheet from
Antarctica.
Computer
models
“fingerprint”
much of
meltwater to
Antarctica
Other events indicating possibility of accelerated change (and warming) above current
predictions:1. With the rapid temperature rise in the Arctic, the melting of the permafrost will accelerate, releasing vast
quantities of methane, which is 80 times more potent greenhouse gas than CO2 in the short (10-year) term
2. Weakening of the northern jet stream rapidly changing the northern hemisphere climate: The recent drift
of the heatwave to Europe and drift north to Greenland shows how this is taking place
3. We have yet to see a change in the global currents, but with the warming of the oceans (and increased
strength of the last three major El Nino’s), breaking of ice barriers to the north and massive flow of cold
meltwater from Greenland, a shift could be coming
4. Breaking off of a major ice sheet from Greenland or West Antarctica could case a 5-10 M sea level rise in a
century or less. This happened less than 14,0000 year ago.
How will climate change affect Nigeria?
Nigeria will be one of the most
adversely affected countries
on the planet by climate
change in the coming decades
Ways in which Nigeria
will be affected➢Rising temperature with
consequences for human
health
➢Drought in northern portion
of country with resulting
agriculture loss
➢ Increased risk of extreme
precipitation events in
South, leading to flooding
➢ Sea level rise, resulting in
flooding and even
relocations
Climate Change impacts in Nigeria
By 2100 Lagos climate will resemble Burkino Faso or Chad temperatures
in high and moderate emission scenarios. Climate Central and World
Meteorological Association. 2017
Northern Nigeria is projected to lose up to
50% of agricultural productivity due to
increased temperatures and drought
Sea level rise: By 2100,
Lagos and the Niger Delta
will be seriously affected
by sea level rise estimated
at 2 meters
National Geographic 2014
Z. N. Musa et al. 2019
Based on current trends, what is likely future?
Simulations have been run, identifying potential
scenarios depending on how the nations of the
world react to the enfolding climate change.
❑ RCP2.6: Immediate reduction in use of fossil
fuels, net zero CO2 emission in 50 years.
Temperature increase about 2 degrees C. CO2
atmosphere content limited to below 500 PPM.
❑ RCP4.5: Peak of CO2 emissions at 40 Gt/yr,
reducing to 50% of level by 2080. Temperature
increase about 3 degrees C. CO2 atmosphere
content limited to below 700 ppm.
❑ RCP6: Likely result of Paris climate accord,
CO2 emissions peak at 60 Gt/yr. in 2080,
temperature increase about 3.5 degrees C.
CO2 content above 800 ppm by 2100
❑ RCP8.5: No restriction on combustion of fossil
fuels, following trend of first 15 years of 21st
century. CO2 emission reach 100 Gt./yr.,
temperature increase up to 5 degrees C and
CO2 atmosphere content 1000 ppm by 2100.
Unfortunately, RCP2.6 will not
happen. However, enough of
the world recognizes the
danger so that RCP8.5 is
equally unlikely to occur.
What needs to happen for
RCP4.5 be the path that is
followed rather than RCP 6?
COAL
Natural Gas/LNG
Greenhouse Gas Emissions for oil are less than coal and greater than natural gas. However,
there is a wide difference in Greenhouse Gas Emissions for different Oil Types!
Since it is unrealistic to eliminate the use of fossil fuels in the near term, we can
at least shift to lower GHG emitting fossil fuels
Adapted from Carnegie
Endowment Oil Climate Index
Hydrocarbons produced by tight
oil/fracking
Flaring of
associated
gas removes
low GHG
benefits of
tight oil
production!
HC Emission plan to achieve RCP 4.5 Climate change Goals
The plan is to reduce coal production, have oil
production “plateau” and utilize natural gas as
“transition fuel” while building up renewable +
nuclear share of energy generation. This will
result in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels gradually
reducing from present level of 33 billion tons/year
to 31 billion tons in 2040 with further reduction to
25 billion tons in 2060. To incentivize nations to
move in this direction, the following steps will be
necessary:
1. A “SMART” targeted carbon tax, starting with
the highest GHG emitting fossil fuels
2. Halt construction of new coal-fired power
station as soon as practical
3. Reduction and then elimination of gas flaring
4. Utilization of the proceeds from the carbon tax
used as directed in each country
0
5000
10000
15000
2016 2025 2040 2060
HC production (MMT/yr)
Coal Oil Gas
0
50
100
150
2016 2025 2040 2060
OIL PRODUCTION TYPEHeavy and ultra heavy conventional tight oil and NGL's
0
10
20
30
40
2016 2025 2040 2060
CO2 Emissions (billion tons/yr)
Coal Oil Gas
Recent events in USA have made this scenario possible
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1990
1992
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2022
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2028
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DryGasProduction(bcf/d)
ChartTitle
AllOther Lower48offshore Tightgas ShaleGasSource:EIA&LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc. EIA2019/AEO 2019/AEO1990-2030AGGREGATEDOIL&GASSUPPLYFORECASTS
Shale Gas
Shalegasaccountsfor67%(59bcf/d)ofU.S.naturalgasproductiontodayandisexpectedtoincreaseto75%(80bcf/d)by2032
U.S.naturalgasproductionhasincreased68%from53to88bcf/dsince2000
Tight GasLower48Offshore
AllOther
History Projections
Utilizing “fracking”, USA gas production has doubled from
2006 to the present with the price declining by 70%. Gas is
replacing coal in electricity generation, resulting in
largest GHG decline in USA of any county in past decade.
USA Electricity Generation
USCA,
2019
What has USA surge in LNG Exports done to world price?
➢US LNG exports have increased to 140
billion cubic feet/month by mid 2019,
making US #3 exporter in the world. This
amount will double by end 2020. By
2030, US will be #1 exporter.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
US Gulf and East Coast Other new LNG oil index
2019 LNG Costs
transportation liquification supply cost total
➢US Gulf and East Coast costs are lower than
competitors due to existing infrastructure
and often “brownfield” construction of
facilities at former import stations and
lowest price of gas supply
➢ The current spot price has dropped to
below $5/mmbtu, making the shift from
coal to LNG more affordable for the rest of
the world and defeating efforts to price
LNG on par with oilJuly 2019Jan 2018
USA Tight Oil Production is the new dominant factor in the oil market
❖ From April 2015 to September 2016, USA tight oil production
declined by 0.5 MMBOD, however, the industry cut costs,
improved technology and found a more economic play in the
Permian Basin. USA tight oil production (not including NGL’s)
increased by >2 MMBOD in 2017-18.
❖ US tight oil plays produce average 85% of ultra-light oil (>40
deg. API), the lowest greenhouse gas emitting oil
❖ By 2040, 1/3 of world oil production will be ultra-light and
natural gas liquids
❖ Tight oil has different qualities from conventional and heavy
crudes, in particluar lacking Vacuum Residue with high
content of Naptha
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
EagleFord Permian Bakken AvgTightOil ConventionalU.S.
U.S.TightOilPlaysAverage2%Intermediate-HeavyOil(<35°API)
&13%LightOil(35-40° API)- 85%isUltra-LightOil(>40° API)
40- 45° API
45- 50° API
>50° API
45- 50° API
>50° API
35- 40° API
40- 45° API
<35° APISource:DrillingInfo&LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.
<35° API
35- 40° API
4.30
6.35
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-1
5
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-1
6
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-1
7
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-1
8
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Increm
ental*
Prod
uctio
nSin
ceApril2
015(m
mb/d)
Source:EIA,DrillingInfo&LabyrinthConsultingServices,Inc.
Bakken
AnadarkoNiobrara
Permian
EagleFord
Bakken
Base
Apr2015Max
Niobrara
2015PeakLevel
Permianproductionaccountsfor64%oftightoilgrowthsince2015Marchtightoilproductionwas6.35mmb/d---53%ofallU.S.crude+condensate
barrels Permian Bakken EagleFord Anadarko Niobrara
IncrementalSince2015 2,015,038 397,718 165,633 198,430 184,809
PercentIncrease 64% 30% 14% 58% 55%
Incremental
mmb/d
Since Apr2015
EagleFord
EIA2019/DUC-DPR/dpr-data_MASTER
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Permian-Delaware
Permian-Midland
DJ Basin
Eagle Ford
Bakken
Powder River Basin
Break even price cited by industry* Price when overhead and other costs
included**
Price when cost of land
included
*assumes 10% ROR for individual well. **This number should drop by
about $5/bbl. when new pipeline construction in Permian is completed
Crude oil price
$/barrel
What are the economics of tight oil and is it
profitable at $50/bbl oil?
Source: WSJ, MacKenzie, Dec 2018
In Permian, where virtually all USA growth will take place, $50/bbl. oil will be
profitable, especially for companies that already hold the land position and for DUC’s
What is the future of the tight oil play in the USA?
Production has probably
reached a plateau in two
initial major plays,
Bakken and Eagle Ford, at
1.4 MMBO/D each. Source
US EIA
The Permian Oil play production is still
increasing, as it shifts from the Midland
to the Delaware Basin. Production will
continue to increase by >1 MMBO/D
through the next 2-3 years.
old
Midland
vs. new
Delaware
Technology is driving the Permian boom:
Chevron example shows 100% increase in
Delaware basin and 30% increase in
Midland basin ultimate well recovery in 2
years, increasing lateral length 35%,
decreasing cost per barrel 25% at same
time
US EIA
Is the Tight oil revolution in North America a positive
or negative factor in addressing climate change?There are three positive factors, but two negative factors:✓ Inexpensive gas has facilitated a switch from coal to gas in USA for power generation
✓ The surge in US LNG exports is making the switch from coal to gas for power
affordable for much of the world
✓ Oil produced from tight reservoirs is the lowest GHG emitting oil
However, in the rush to rapid development, the two negative factors
threaten to undermine the positives: flaring and methane emissions
An independent study published by the Journal Science
documented methane leaks at double the level reported by the
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The surge in US
natural gas production is could be a factor in the more rapid
methane increase compared to CO2 in the past decade
Gas flaring by country 2018 in billion cubic
meters. USA may pass Russia as #1 flaring
country in world. Note Nigeria flaring 1/3
amount despite only 12% of USA oil production.
Source: Adapted from Statistica, 2019
Projected
Est. 21.0
BCM in
2019
Source: Alvarez et al,
Science, 2018
Paris Climate Agreement, while well-meaning, is
seriously flawed and needs to be renegotiated
Key points in climate agreement: (signed November 2016)
➢ Limit temperature increase to 2 degrees C above global temperature in
1880, with hope(?) to limit to 1.5 deg. C increase
➢ Each country to set internal goal, no enforcement mechanism
➢ Non-binding commitments to mobilize finances of $100 billion USD by 2025
to support growth of renewable energy and mitigate hardships of shift from
fossil fuels
➢ Review of progress and targets every five years
Flaws in the agreement
➢ Goal is unrealistic and unachievable. Increase of 1.1 degrees has already
taken place. 2018 IPCC report predicts 3.2 degree C increase if pledges
through 2030 implemented with continuing trend.
➢ There is no mechanism to drive the shift to renewables and lower carbon
emission hydrocarbons and no penalty for failure to achieve goals
➢ The voluntary goals do not solve the problem. Developed nations that have
already been reducing emissions are asked to continue to do so while the
developing nations, can continue to increase.
➢ The agreement does not address cross nation contributions, such as exports
of high GHG emitting fossil fuels or funding of coal fired power plants in
other countries.
Fossil fuel emissions (80% of total)
What can be done in Nigeria to address Climate Change?There are three broad areas that can be addressed1. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the fossil fuel industry: Nigeria is a
major oil and gas producer and should continue to enact programs to reduce
flaring and methane emissions. Such efforts have started and need to be
intensified.
2. Assume a regional leadership role: Nigeria is the largest country in sub-
Saharan Africa in many categories and this region, taken as a whole, could
make a material difference for the world to reach an RCP 4.5 scenario and
avoid the worst climate scenarios. Organizations such as OAS and ECOWAS
may provide the forum to propose and ultimately implement regional policies.
3. Be realistic about preparations for the future: Even in a realistic best-case
scenario (RCP 4.5) there will be severe climate change repercussions for
Nigeria. This will include temperature rise, drought in the north and
increased severe weather events, flooding and sea level rise along the coast
and in the Niger Delta. Preparations need to be made accordingly.
Cycle 22
plateau
Cycle 23 plateau
Cycle 24 plateau
Cycle 20-21 plateau
However, increasing CO2 levels appear to be the dominating factor. 2019
temperatures comparable to 2016/7 despite solar minimum and weak El
Nino. New warmer plateau could start as early as 2023 if strong El Nino
occurs during next solar radiation cycle.
Cycle 25
plateau?
Can we predict the future temperature?
El Nino years: Size
reflects intensity
A
ECP
A,EC,P: Result of
Volcanic
eruptions?
We are in the midst of the latest interglacial
cycle, with the astronomical parameters most
similar to the cycle 400,000 years ago. Without
the human factor (increased CO2 and methane)
we would expect the next “ice age” to begin
within the next 5-10,000 years.
Solar radiation maximum has been decreasing for
the past 60 years; without the CO2 effect, we could
be heading to a “Dalton Minimum” associated with
the cooler temperatures of the early 19th century
Similar Milankovich parameters
Dalton
Minimum
New
minimum?
Best, 2018
Royal Obs. Belgium
Ice volume
2019 ave.
temp.
similar to
2017 with
June/July
equal to
2016
Summary and Conclusions There are multiple factors that affect climate
change. To point to any one factor alone is inaccurate and potentially misleading
Without the effect of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, the climate would probably be headed for a cooler period, in the near term due to decreased solar radiation and in the longer term due to the ending of the current interglacial cycle
The increased CO2 content, clearly linked to the combustion of fossil fuels, is likely to change this trend, leading to a warming period.
The factors affecting climate tend to reinforce each other, therefore, this process is accelerating.
The most realistic course of action, avoiding the extreme outcome would be to shift to use of the lower greenhouse gas emitting hydrocarbons in the coming decades while building up energy generation from renewable and low carbon energy sources.
This will require an unprecedented level of world cooperation, including a much stronger agreement than the current Paris Climate Accord
“if we do not deal with reality,
reality will deal with us”