Climate ChangeClimate Change::Frameworks for Policy and ActionFrameworks for Policy and Action

Chris BeaumanChris Beauman

19 January 200619 January 2006

Total GHG Emissions and Relative Sectoral Shares Total GHG Emissions and Relative Sectoral Shares (2000, all GHGs; including Land Use (2000, all GHGs; including Land Use

Change/Forestry)Change/Forestry)

Pew Center on Global Climate Change: World Resources Institute August 2005

Projections of Future GHG EmissionsProjections of Future GHG Emissions

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

9,000

10,500

12,000

13,500

15,000

World Developed Developing

57%

35%

84%

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

2,100

2,400

2,700

3,000

U.S . China E.U. FSU India Africa Brazil Japan Mexico

Projected emissions, 2025

2000 Emissions

39%

118%

19% 42

%70% 80

%68% 26

% 124%

Source: Sustainable Energy Advisory Board 18 September 2005 International Climate Change between Gleneagles and Montreal by H. Derwent

The Stabilization TriangleThe Stabilization Triangle

Source: Stabilization Wedges: Mitigation Tools for the Next Half-Century by R. Socolow, February 03, 2005

Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven WedgesFill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges

Source: Stabilization Wedges: Mitigation Tools for the Next Half –Century by R. Socolow, February 03, 2005

WedgesWedges

Source: Stabilization Wedges: Mitigation Tools for the Next Half-Century by R. Socolow , February 03, 2005

From Long-Range Climate Science to “Action This Day”From Long-Range Climate Science to “Action This Day”

Temperature increase Temperature increase → Gradual Warming→ Gradual Warming→ → Tipping PointsTipping Points

0c0c 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 6 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 6

CO2 equivalentCO2 equivalent Build-up Build-up

380 - 400 – 450 – 380 - 400 – 450 – 500 – 500 – 550 – 550 – 600 – 600 – 650 – 650 – 700 – 750700 – 750

Annual Emissions: -- US – EU – Japan – China – India – Russia -- OtherAnnual Emissions: -- US – EU – Japan – China – India – Russia -- Other

Key EU Countries - Germany – UK – Spain – ItalyKey EU Countries - Germany – UK – Spain – Italy

% Reduction % Reduction 12.5 (2008/12)12.5 (2008/12) - 20 (2012) - 20 (2012) - - 60 (2050 - RCEP)60 (2050 - RCEP) - 80 - 80

Key UK Sectors - Business – Residential – Industrial Process – Public –Key UK Sectors - Business – Residential – Industrial Process – Public –- Road Transport - Domestic Air Transport – International Aviation - Shipping- Road Transport - Domestic Air Transport – International Aviation - Shipping

End User Carbon Dioxide Emissions End User Carbon Dioxide Emissions as Percentages of UK National Totalas Percentages of UK National Total

Source: Review of the UK Climate Change Programme, Consultation Paper, December 2004

Index of End User Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2002Index of End User Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2002

Source: Review of the UK Climate Change Programme, Consultation Paper, December 2004

Carbon Dioxide Emissions by End User, MtCCarbon Dioxide Emissions by End User, MtC

Source: Review of the UK Climate Change Programme, Consultation Paper, December 2004

Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Actual/Red Scenario Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Actual/Red Scenario

20502050

Source: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Decarbonising the UK Energy for a Climate Conscious Future

Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Blue/Turquoise Scenarios Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Blue/Turquoise Scenarios 20502050

Source: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Decarbonising the UK Energy for a Climate Conscious Future

Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Purple/Pink Scenarios Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Purple/Pink Scenarios 20502050

Source: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Decarbonising the UK Energy for a Climate Conscious Future