Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue

Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia

former IPCC WG2 vicechair

Human growth20/80 dilemma

Ecosystems60 % loss dilemma

Climate550/450/350 dilemma

Surprise99/1 dilemma

”The Squeeze”

Climate change is not isolated from other problems: the importance of converging trends

• Population dynamics: Until 2050 population growth will lead to a world population between 8.7 and 9.3 billion people.

• Resource consumption: rise in consumption of energy and resources: it is expected that by 2030 primary energy needs will increase by more than 50%.

• Urbanisation is advancing: By 2030 up to 60% of the world’s population could be living in cities. The largest growth in city populations ~ 50% will be in Africa and Asia.

• Result: Number of destabilising, mutually amplifying factors

Key QuestionsIncreased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)

Energy

Water Increased

demand 30% by 2030

(IFPRI)

FoodIncreased demand

50% by 2030

(FAO)

Climate Change

1. Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably?

2. Can we cope with the future demands on water?

3. Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty?

4. Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change?

5. Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems?

Biodiversity

The Perfect Storm?

(Beddington, 2009)

Climate Change

• Is the climate change an environmental issue or becomes to be a threat to international peace and security?

+2°

+4°

PROBLEMATIC• 1 - 2 billion additional people with water stress• Impacts on cereal productivity at low latitudes• Increased coastal flooding and storms• Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thaw

DISASTROUS• A 16 ºC increase in the Arctic• 1.1 - 3.2 billion additional people with water

stress• Widespread coral mortality; risk of major

extinctions around the globe• Substantial global impact on major crops• Long-term prospect of sea level rise

Global temperature rise

Risks in key sectors

Water: decresing water availability, changes in precipitation, melting of glaciers, extreme weather events, increasing competition of demand

Agriculture: Decreasing agricultural production, economic decline, more unempoyment, food shortages, increasing competition of demand

Urbanisation: Increasing disaster risks, health risks, growing population dynamics, growing slums

Infrastructure, energy supply and transport: environmental change due to climate change increases running costs (damages, flooding etc) or reduces energy production (hydro)

WaterFood

EnergyInfrastructuretransport

Urban space

Land use

Governance

Climate change

• The scarcity of water is replacing oil as a flashpoint for conflict between nations in an increasingly urbanized world

• The danger of international competition for adequate water resources will grow inevitably. The increased demand for water could produce intense competition for this essential substance

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The water conflict scenario

Climate change effects & migration: Hotspots & Trajectories

WGBU 2007 (modified)

Main trajectories

Climate Change as a Threat

Climate change• is a threat multiplier• will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many

societies• increases number and intensity of conflicts and

reduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution • leads to new lines of conflict in the international

arena

A Multiplier for Instability

Water Scarcity Demography Crop Decline Hunger Coastal Risks Recent Conflicts

National Security – Climate change linkages

• Climate change could trigger national and international distributional conflicts and intensify problems already hard to manage such as state failure, the erosion of social order, and rising violence

• Climate change will degrade human security and livelihoods via increased risks of disasters, food insecurity, energy poverty etc.

Recommendation for states policies

• In every country National Security Strategy should directly address the threat of climate change to the state’s national security interests.

• Evaluate preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather events

• Evaluate the capacity of all levels of government and other institutions to respond to the consequences of climate change.

Conclusions• There is no military solution to climate security, but mainly

disaster prevention through good governance, human rights, de-marginalization and empowerment

• Conflict prevention regarding climate change means mitigation and adaptation – ambitious global climate policy must be put into operation

• Mitigation and adaptation serve as prevention of non-climate-change-connected threats and conflicts e.g. energy security, water and food security