Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue by...
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Transcript of Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue by...
Climate change as problem of national and international security rather than environmental issue
Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
former IPCC WG2 vicechair
Human growth 20/80 dilemma
Ecosystems 60 % loss dilemma
Climate 550/450/350
dilemma
Surprise 99/1 dilemma
”The Squeeze”
Climate change is not isolated from other problems: the importance of converging trends
• Population dynamics: Until 2050 population growth will lead to a world population between 8.7 and 9.3 billion people.
• Resource consumption: rise in consumption of energy and resources: it is expected that by 2030 primary energy needs will increase by more than 50%.
• Urbanisation is advancing: By 2030 up to 60% of the world’s population could be living in cities. The largest growth in city populations ~ 50% will be in Africa and Asia.
• Result: Number of destabilising, mutually amplifying factors
Key Questions Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
Water Increased demand
30% by 2030
(IFPRI)
Food Increased demand
50% by 2030
(FAO)
Climate Change
1. Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably?
2. Can we cope with the future demands on water?
3. Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty?
4. Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change?
5. Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems?
Biodiversity
The Perfect Storm? (Beddington, 2009)
Climate Change
• Is the climate change an environmental issue or becomes to be a threat to international peace and security?
+2° +4°
PROBLEMATIC • 1 - 2 billion additional people with water stress • Impacts on cereal productivity at low latitudes • Increased coastal flooding and storms • Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thaw
DISASTROUS • A 16 ºC increase in the Arctic • 1.1 - 3.2 billion additional people with water stress • Widespread coral mortality; risk of major extinctions around the globe • Substantial global impact on major crops • Long-term prospect of sea level rise
Global temperature rise
Risks in key sectors
Water: decresing water availability, changes in precipitation, melting of glaciers, extreme weather events, increasing competition of demand
Agriculture: Decreasing agricultural production, economic decline, more unempoyment, food shortages, increasing competition of demand
Urbanisation: Increasing disaster risks, health risks, growing population dynamics, growing slums
Infrastructure, energy supply and transport: environmental change due to climate change increases running costs (damages, flooding etc) or reduces energy production (hydro)
Water Food
Energy Infrastructure transport
Urban space
Land use
Governance
Climate change
• The scarcity of water is
replacing oil as a flashpoint for conflict between nations in an increasingly urbanized world
• The danger of international competition for adequate water resources will grow inevitably. The increased demand for water could produce intense competition for this essential substance
http://www.availableimages.com/movies/2008/bluegold-worldwaterwars/pictures-bluegold-worldwaterwars_pph_4.htmlhttp://
The water conflict scenario
Climate change effects & migration: Hotspots & Trajectories
WGBU 2007 (modified)
Main trajectories
Climate Change as a Threat Climate change • is a threat multiplier • will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many
societies • increases number and intensity of conflicts and
reduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution • leads to new lines of conflict in the international
arena
A Multiplier for Instability
Water Scarcity Demography Crop Decline Hunger Coastal Risks Recent Conflicts
National Security – Climate change linkages
• Climate change could trigger national and international distributional conflicts and intensify problems already hard to manage such as state failure, the erosion of social order, and rising violence
• Climate change will degrade human security and livelihoods via increased risks of disasters, food insecurity, energy poverty etc.
Recommendation for states policies • In every country National Security Strategy should directly
address the threat of climate change to the state’s national security interests.
• Evaluate preparedness for natural disasters from extreme weather events
• Evaluate the capacity of all levels of government and other institutions to respond to the consequences of climate change.
Conclusions • There is no military solution to climate security, but mainly
disaster prevention through good governance, human rights, de-marginalization and empowerment
• Conflict prevention regarding climate change means mitigation and adaptation – ambitious global climate policy must be put into operation
• Mitigation and adaptation serve as prevention of non-climate-change-connected threats and conflicts e.g. energy security, water and food security