Climate Change and the Threat to National Security
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Transcript of Climate Change and the Threat to National Security
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Climate Change and National Security
American Security Project
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INTRODUCTION: THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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The Earth is Warming
Changes in global surface temperatures since 1880
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The Earth is Warming
Average Surface Temperature by decade since the 1880s
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The Climate has always changed…
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10,000 Years of Stability
Global Temperature Changes Since 10,000 BC5
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We are no longer stable
Global Temperature Changes the last 2000 years
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So- why is the Temperature Increasing?
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So- why is the Temperature Increasing?
Increasing Concentrations of CO2
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The Science is Definitive
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Objections are Political, not Scientific
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Result of Increasing Concentration of CO2:
Global Warming
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The Threats of Climate Change
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The Military Worries about the Threats of Climate Change
“The pressures caused by climate change will influence resource competition while placing additional burdens on economies, societies, and governance institutions around the world.”
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The Military Worries about the Threats of Climate Change “A changing climate will have
real impacts on our military and the way it executes its missions.”• Increased humanitarian
assistance and disaster relief • Installations vulnerable to
rising sea levels • Droughts and wildfires
threaten training activities• Supply chains could be
threatened• Ensuring equipment works
under more extreme weather conditions
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Militaries Around the World Worry About the Threat of Climate Change
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Why Does the Military Worry About Climate Change?
• “Accelerant of Instability”
• “Threat Multiplier”
• New “Hot Spots” for Instability
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Global “Hot Spots”
• A global issue that will be felt at the regional level.
• How these local changes in weather and climate affect security in each region will depend on local responses.
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Hot Spots: South Asia
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Hot Spots: The Pacific
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Hot Spots: The Middle East
Fuel and Water are central to Mideast Operations
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Hot Spots: The Middle East
The Key Dams of Iraq – If you control water in the Middle East, you control the government.
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Hot Spots: The Middle East
The Syria and Iraqi Drought, 2006-2010
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Hot Spots: Sub Saharan Africa
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Hot Spots: The United States of America
Coastal Threats Extreme Weather
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Hot Spots: The United States of America
Military Bases Infrastructure
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Hot Spots: The United States of America
Energy Agriculture
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The Military’s Solution: Risk Management
• There is no absolute certainty for climate predictions.
• But - the military does not wait until there is 100% certainty.
• On the battlefield, waiting for certainty means it is already too late.
Cheney’s “1% Doctrine”
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Questions?