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Climate Change and the Pacific Northwest

What Impacts Can We Expect and How Should We Prepare?

PNWS AWWA Annual Conference

May 2, 2008

Vancouver, WA Roger Hamilton, Climate Leadership Initiative

University of Oregon

hamilton.roger@comcast.net

541-686-4839

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Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

100 0.0740.018

50 0.1280.026

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,200

6, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,200

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Period Rate

Years /decade

4

5

CSIRO

MIROC

HAD

B1

Change in Mean Monthly Temperature(Degrees C)2070-2099 vs 1961-1990

A2

6

A2 B1

CSIRO

HAD

MIROC

Percent Change in Precipitation2070-2099 vs 1961-1990

77

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Observed Temperatures Last Century Compared to Natural and Man-Made Simulations

Vertical scale is .5 degrees Fahrenheit

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Agriculture emerges

4.5 oC

1.5 oC

Is this an Anthropomorphic “Sweet Spot”?

The Last 20,000 Years seems to have been Ideal for the Development of Human Societies. Is this a Historic “Sweet Spot” that Enabled Humans to Flourish?

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Volatility of Temperatures in Central Greenland over Last 100,000 Years

Data shows remarkable stability in last 10,000 years during human settlement.(From 1995 Ice Cores)

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Reduction CO2 missions sooner, moves these delayed consequences downward and reduces the

time required to stabilize the responses.

There is a fundamental asymmetry between the time scales that the climate system reacts to increases in greenhouse gases and the time scales to recover from such increases.

There is a fundamental asymmetry between the time scales that the climate system reacts to increases in greenhouse gases and

the time scales to recover from such increases.

Carbon Dioxide Stabilizes in several

Hundred years

Temperatures Stabilizes in about 500 Hundred years

Sea Level Rise will Stabilizes in over 1000 years

Today100 Years

1000 Years

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CO2 and SO2 in the 21st Century

Source: IPCC TAR 2001

A2

A1B

B1

Future Scenarios are Based on Socio-Economic ‘Storylines’

Stable at 550 ppm

Stable at 750 ppm

Approaching 3,000 to 4,000 ppm

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What Do We See Happening Now?

• Arctic sea ice has shrunk by over 20 percent since 1978(Most recent: 7.8 % per decade since 1953 according to National Snow

and Ice Center in Boulder)

• Larsen B ice shelf in Antarctica lost over 3000 square miles in 2002

• Glaciers are receding in North America, South America, Africa, Europe, and Asia

• Methane, most powerful GHG, rapidly releasing from thawing tundra at 5X expected rate

• Sea levels are rising and expected to increase up to 23 inches without melting of polar ice sheets

• Increasingly strong storms and hurricanes

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PNW Temperature and Precipitation Trends Over Past Century

• Average warming since the beginning of the 20th century• Average 10% precipitation increase since the beginning

of the 20th century• 30 to 40% increase in eastern Washington• April 1 Cascades snow pack declined 35% from 1950-

1995• Timing of peak snow pack moved to earlier in year• March stream flows have increased and June stream

flows reduced • Most affected at low and mid elevations

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“The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Oregon: A Preliminary Assessment”

(UO Resource Innovations 2005)

Oregon is particularly vulnerable to global warming because much of the economy is dependent on freshwater and

much of that freshwater comes from mountain snowpack.

Water Supply Is (Initially) The Most Critical Issue

Estimates suggest that as mountain snowpack disappears, by 2050 Oregon farmers could lose 2.9 million acre feet of water for irrigation-- roughly half of what they use today--valued at between $265 and $995 million.

Obtained at: http://climlead.uoregon.edu/publicationspress/publicationspress.html

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Substantial Warming Seems Inevitable

• 4o F or so temperature increase is likely to cause significant harm.

• + 4o F increase may generate catastrophic impacts: All communities and persons will be affected.

• Some scientists expect global temperatures to rise by 10o F or more by century’s end.

• Temperature increases may not be gradual: rapid change may dominate.

• New international report (over 2000 scientists) predicts temperature will increase 3.1 to 7.2 degrees F this century

• If 6 degrees F, sea level could rise 80 feet with melting of ice sheets

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PNW Projections for Next 10 to 50 years

• Temperature: average warming 2.7 degrees F by 2030 and 5.4 degrees F by 2050

• Results:

Higher elevation treeline

Longer growing seasons

Earlier animal and plant breeding

Longer and more intense allergy season

Changes in vegetative zones

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PNW Impacts (cont.)

Precipitation: May increase on average• Historical increase by 10% since 1900 but 30% in some

locations• Most precipitation will continue to occur in winter and in

mountains• Low summer precipitation and earlier peak streamflow:• decreased summer water availability• Increased flood damage• Shifts in hydro production from summer to winter• Decreased water quality• Increased salinity and pollutant concentration• Increased storm intensity, beach erosion, and stream

scouring

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Rain, Mixed Rain/Snow, and Snow Dominant Areas in the PNW(HUC4 resolution)

Green = Rain Dominant

Red = Mixed Rain/Snow

Blue= Snow Dominant

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Hydro Power Production

• A ten percent decrease in flows can reduce hydro production by 36%

• Conservative Prediction: 20% hydro power reduction in Columbia Basin by 2060.

• Increased pressure to reduce power to help stressed fish.

• Increased summer temperatures will cause increased summer power demand for air conditioning

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Hydropower

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

r

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Cubi

c Fee

t per

Seco

nd

Historic

2020s

2040s

Climate drivers•Increased levels of CO2.•Temperatures up 2°F by 2020s and 3°F by 2040s.•Earlier snowmelt. •No significant change in amount of precipitation. •Sea level rise by 2100 of 4 to 35 inches.

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Winter and Spring: increased generationSummer: decreased generationAnnual: total production will depend on annual precipitationPlus: impacts on electricity demand in winter in summer

(+3.6F, +6%)(+4.1F, +5%)

(+5.2F, -4%)

NWPCC (2005)

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Municipal Drinking Water

•Taking pop. growth into account led to projected need for 9.6 billion gallons of additional water storage.

•Global warming could increase this need by 50%.

•Forecasts for years when average precipitation is lower led to expected shortfall of 3 billion gallons.

•City of Portland Bull Run assessment (Palmer and Hahn, 2002) found warmer climate will reduce water availability by 1.5 billion gallons and increase demand by 2.8 billion gallons.

•Planners must develop water resources to meet dry year demands.

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Municipal water supply

Climate drivers•Increased levels of CO2.•Temperatures up 2°F by 2020s and 3°F by 2040s.•Earlier snowmelt. •No significant change in amount of precipitation. •Sea level rise by 2100 of 4 to 35 inches.

Economic ImpactsVaries greatly by municipality depending on water source, water quantity relative to population, adaptive management, etc. Both supply and demand solutions have costs; e.g. Lake Tapps system in Pierce County estimated at $450 million.One study found water conservation costs to offset the decline in firm yield of Seattle’s water supply could exceed $8 million per year by the 2020s and $16 million per year by 2040s.

Supply and demand for water in Seattle, 2000-2060

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Firm yield

Demand

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TYPES OF PREPARATION MEASURESCATEGORY

Status Quo

Prevent the Loss

Spread or Share the Loss

Change the Activity

Change the Location

Prepare

EXAMPLE

Rebuild, or abandon affected structures

Build for big winds, floods, drought

Purchase flood insurance

Don’t build in low lying coastal areas, rebuild wetlands

Relocate buildings out of flood zones

Protect and restore wetlands and forests in streams

From Adapting to Climate Change, Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network

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For Energy and Water Systems:

•Reliability of transmission systems threatened given higher summer peaking with increased air conditioning loads and higher ambient temperatures for electrical wires: need for distributed generation

•Energy efficiency consistent with increased greenhouse gas reduction regulation

•Buffering of transmission and distribution lines anticipating increased wildfire frequency and intensity •Protection of electricity sub-stations against flood damage in flood-prone areas

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•Adjusting electricity production and transmission long-range planning to anticipate reduced hydroelectric water storage with decreased snow pack and earlier spring run off

•Considering changes in wind plant production profiles due to changing climate regimes

•Considering expanding municipal water storage facilities in drought prone areas with anticipated reduced precipitation and summer runoff

•Buffering of municipal water and waste water treatment facilities against severe storm events

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For Water Treatment Facilities

Water Quality May Be Impacted by the following:• Increased mobility of chemical compounds• Increased temperature• Increased eutrophication• Reduced dissolved oxygen• Increased hazardous substances• Flush of sediment or pollutants from flash flood events• Leaching of waste disposals or water treatment facilities

from flash flood events

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Flash Flood Events May Cause:

• Flush of sediments or pollutants• Leaching of waste disposals or water treatment facilities• Spread of pathogens

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Interdecadal Climate Regime Shifts

1976 - 77 1988 - 89

El Niño1983 1998

Drought and Fire in the West(Simulated Fire, no Fire Suppression)

1940s

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MIR

OC

3_M

ED

RE

S A2 B1H

AD

CM

3C

SIR

O_M

K3

percent

Percent Change Biomass consumed by Fire2051-2100 vs. 1951-2000.

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UO CLIMATE LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE

• Greenhouse Gas Quantification and Impact

Assessments• Low-Carbon Sustainable Economic Development • Climate Policy and Program Development• Private Access Local Government Web-based • Discussion Board• Pacific Northwest Local Government Climate

Change Working Group• Climate Change Literacy and Information • E-mail alerts on climate change issues• Neighborhood Climate Change Program

Website: http://climlead.uoregon.edu E-mail: hamilton.roger@comcast.net