TDM Strategies & Climate Change

NYMTC – Metro Mobility Network MeetingJune 10, 2008

New York, New York

Michael Grant, PrincipalFrank T. Mongioi, Jr., Senior Associate

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Introduction – State Climate Action Plans■ Why state level approach is important

■ Can have large impacts – 34 of 75 largest GHG sources in the world are U.S. states

■ States are testing grounds for emerging policy

■ State actions can build political support at federal level

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GHGs and Transportation Sector

■ After industry, transportation is leading source of U.S. GHG emissions

■ Transportation sector accounts for 28% of GHGs nationally – much more in some states

■ Transportation is among the fastest growing sources of GHG emissions

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Tg C

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+427.3

235.4 258.1

27.9

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Transportation Residential Commercial Agriculture

U.S. GHG Emissions by Economic Sector, 1990-2006 (with Electricity distributed to End-Use Sectors)

Growth in GHG Emissions, 1990-2006 (Tg CO2 Eq.)

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Estimated Transportation Share of Total GHG Emissions by State, 2010

23%

34%

22%

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23%

39%

43%

47%

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U.S. Transportation GHG Emissions by Source, 2006

Other Aircraft

Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks

20%

Passenger Cars34%

Buses CommercialAircraft

7%

Motorcycles

LubricantsPipelinesRailShips and Boats

Light-Duty Trucks28%

Light-duty Vehicles63%

Heavy-duty Vehicles21%

Aircraft9%

Other Non-Road7%

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State Climate Actions Plans

■ Plans propose specific policies and programs for consideration by the state legislature or implementation by state agency

■ Stakeholder groups convened to develop policies aimed at meeting state emission goals

36 states have developed or are developing a climate plan

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Role of Stakeholder Groups

■ Transportation is one of several key areas for policy development

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Step-Wise Plan Process

■ 1: Develop initial statewide GHG inventories and projections■ 2: Draft a catalog of possible GHG policy options■ 3: Identify initial draft priority policy options for evaluation■ 4: Develop proposals for draft policy option design■ 5: Quantify potential GHG reduction and cost of draft policy

options■ 6: Define implementation mechanisms, related policies and

programs, and feasibility issues■ 7: Iterate to final consensus on draft policy options through

voting by plenary group■ 8: Finalize recommendations and report

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Types of Strategies Included in Plans

■ GHG emissions standards for LDVs

■ Smart growth measures

■ Clean car purchase incentives

■ Promotion of transit

■ Alternative fuels

■ Pay-as-you drive insurance

■ Non-road measures

■ Emissions reduction measures for diesel vehicles

■ HDV anti-idling measures

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Transportation Demand Management Strategies• Improving multi-modal options, including transit• Pricing strategies for fuel and driving• Pricing strategies for parking, and• Public education and outreach

Bus Photo

Bus Photo

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Effective TDM Strategies – Estimated by States

• Provision/promotion of multiple modes, including transit• Pay as You Drive Insurance (PAYD)• Commuter Benefits

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Frequency of Strategy Inclusion

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Strategy Effectiveness (examples)

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Looking Ahead

• At least nine other states are developing climate action plans• States adopting selected policy recommendations

■ WA per-capita VMT reduction goals

■ AZ clean car GHG standards

• As states and metropolitan areas gain experience, policies and quantification methods will continue to be refined and TDM may see a growing role in Climate Action Plans.

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Integrating Climate Change into Metropolitan Transportation Planning

• Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP)

Long-range plan for regional transportation system20+ year planning horizonFiscally constrainedUpdated at least every 4 years in air quality nonattainment & maintenance areas, 5 years elsewhere

• Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) are beginning to:■ Incorporate goals and objectives that

relate to climate change

■ Incorporate GHG reduction strategies

■ Examine potential impacts of and adaptation to climate change

The Metropolitan Transportation Planning Process: Key Issues A Briefing Notebook for Transportation Decisionmakers, Officials, and StaffFHWA and FTA

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Climate Change Potentially Impacts Transportation Infrastructure

1. Charts do not include periodic hurricane storm surge, e.g., Isabel 10+ feet.2. Reference: DOT The Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure,

Federal Research Partnership Workshop, October 1-2, 2002, plus ICF follow-on East Coast study

Current Sea Level

1.5 Meter Rise

Naval Facilities

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Integrating Climate Change in Metropolitan Transportation Plans

Climate Change Mitigation in:

Climate Change Adaptation Energy Conservation/Alt. Fuels

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MPO RegionEugene, OR S x x x xMissoula, MT SSanta Fe, NM SAlbany, NY M xGrand Rapids, MI M x x xPortland, OR M x x x x x x xSalt Lake City M xBaltimore L x x xChicago L x xDenver L x x x xHouston-Galveston L x x xPhiladelphia LSacramento L x x x xSan Diego L x x x x x xSan Francisco L x x xSeattle LSouthern California L x x x xWashington DC L

in: in:

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Example: Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC), San Francisco Bay Area

• Developing Transportation 2035 Plan• Includes specific measurable objectives (considered “stretch” targets)

for each of its key principles – one relates to climate change• Analyzing scenarios to assess which options meet the target

From: MTC Memorandum to Planning Committee, January 2008.

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Looking Ahead

• Potential increase in attention to TDM due to convergence of factors, of which climate change is one

• Related social/economic factors motivating TDM interest

– High gas prices, energy security– Increased traffic congestion– Funding limitations – Highway Trust Fund running out…– Public health concerns / obesity– Increased emphasis on efficient system management &

operations (pricing, etc.)– Quality of life issues / sustainability

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Thank you!

Michael Grant Frank Mongioi703-218-2692 732-218-5040mgrant@icfi.com fmongioi@icfi.com