Climate Change

and Ontario Agriculture

FarmSmart 2017 Christoph Wand

OMAFRA Livestock Sustainability Specialist

@CtophWand

Adam Hayes

OMAFRA Soil Management Specialist – Field Crops

Global Roundtable for Sustainable Beef www.grsbeef.org

Canadian Roundtable for Sustainable Beef www.crsb.ca

Rumen Chemistry

Undigestible

Available

to hindgut

Fecal

Rumen

Body

Diet

Energy

Methane (CH4) Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

VFAs

Greenhouse Gases

Source: IPCC 2007 Annual Report

Greenhouse Gases

• Manure management (e.g. anaerobic

digestion) and management of

enteric fermentation (e.g. feed

rations, production lifecycle)

• Energy/water management

(improved efficiency and

conservation, co-generation)

• Bio-based feedstocks for use as

transportation fuels (e.g. compressed

natural gas)

• Management of nitrogen fertilizer

use (4Rs)

• Tillage

The more we delay, the more

mitigation will cost

Many opportunities exist for the agri-food industry to reduce GHGs

Undeniable Proof of Climate Change

What is a Greenhouse Gas (GHG)?

Any gas in the atmosphere which

absorbs and re‐emits heat, and thereby

keeps the planet’s atmosphere warmer

than it otherwise would be.

• water vapour

• carbon dioxide (CO2)

• methane (CH4)

• nitrous oxide (N2O)

• ozone

• refrigerants

https://ecometrica.com/assets/GHGs-CO2-CO2e-and-Carbon-What-Do-These-Mean-v2.1.pdf

http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/05/everything-you-need-know-about-agricultural-emissions Image credit: IPCC

Where do (agricultural) GHGs come from?

Carbon Dioxide

(CO2)

Natural

•Ecosystems

•Plants & animals

Other

•Fossil fuel combustion

•Manufacturing

•Tillage

Methane

(CH4)

Natural

•Wetlands

•Poorly drained soil

Other

•Landfill sites

•Manure storages

•Fossil fuel combustion

•Feed digestion by ruminants

Nitrous Oxide

(N2O)

Natural

•Soils in natural ecosystems

Other

•Fossil fuel combustion

•Soil de-nitrification

•Manure

•Fertilizers

Where do (agricultural) GHGs come from?

Global

Warming

Potential x 1 x 25 x 298

How is Ontario’s Climate Changing?

• Our summers are warmer, with more heat

waves

• Our winters are warmer, with fewer extreme

cold days and less snow overall

• We are seeing more intense and severe

storms

2016

2016

What does Climate Change Look like in Ontario?

Implications for Cash Crops CORN – Growing conditions: - Optimal crop heat units: 2700-3500

- Soil T°C at planting: >10 °C

- Develops fastest at 30 °C

- Tolerates temperatures as high as 38

°C if no drought present

- Late season cold: lower threshold -2

°C

- H2O requirements: ~500mm

- Most susceptible to dry conditions @

tasselling to silking stage (July-early

Aug)

Potential climate change impacts

- Increased total thermal time improves

growing conditions

- A warmer April –early start- or higher temperatures in June-August

WHEAT- Growing conditions

• Snow good (insulation & H2 0 source); ice bad

• Temperature parameters – Wheat has two dormancy periods 1st dormancy (with snow): threshold -22°C

2nd dormancy: cold injury threshold -12°C

– Pollination: threshold -1°C

– Grain fill: threshold > 25°C

• Precipitation parameters

– Grain fill: need 1.5”-2”/week for good

yield

Potential impacts

• Icing injury in absence of snow cover

• Warmer winter may shift pollination earlier

Implications for Cash Crops

What does Climate Change Look like in Ontario?

Changing Pests, Diseases, Invasive Species

Crop-pest complex more likely to

resemble more southerly regions + other

factors

• “more bugs” over time = increased

pesticide loads

– environmental / economic costs /

resistance

• need improved forecasting to inform

IPM, monitoring, better timing, changes

to rotation sequences / tillage practices,

new tools, other

Potential climate change impacts on agriculture

Infrastructure:

• buildings,

• energy systems,

• drainage and sewers,

and

• roads and bridges

Biodiversity:

• wildlife reproduction

• relationships between

predators and prey

• tree and plant species

survival

Water:

• earlier snowmelt

• less ice cover on lakes

• changing rainfall and

snowfall patterns,

especially in the Great

Lakes region

• changes in water’s

movement between air,

soil, plants and bodies

of water

Why does Climate Change matter? What

…is a GHG?

…is Cap and Trade?

Why

…does it matter?

Where

…do GHGs come from?

Who

…does it affect?

How

…will it affect my farm?

…much will it cost me?

…can I improve?

…will gov’t help me?

http://www.agr.gc.ca/eng/science-and-innovation/agricultural-practices/agriculture-and-climate/future-outlook/climate-change-scenarios/length-of-growing-season-in-ontario/

1971-2000 2010-2039

Impacts on Livestock

• Potential negative impacts

to Ontario’s livestock

sector from Climate

Change include:

– Challenges with heat

stress

– Emerging pests and

disease

• Climate change will also present

several opportunities to the livestock

sector

– Increased diversity of crops = more

productive feedstocks

– Milder and shorter winters creates

opportunities for northern expansion

Addressing Climate Change

Feed/Feeding is a Large Part

of Livestock Footprint

C l i m a t e c h a n ge i m p a c t s

Main impacts

Feed production

Fertilizer production

Field operations

Manure management

Methane emissions

Nitrous oxide emissions

C l i m a t e c h a n ge i m p a c t s

Ontario’s performance:

Better than the international average

Fully comparable to North American average

Source: MacLeod, M., Gerber, P., Mottet, a, Tempio, G., Falcucci, a, Opio, C., … Steinfeld, H. (2013). Greenhouse gas emissions from pig and chicken supply chains – A global life cycle assessment.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

World North America Ontario

kg C

O2

-eq

/ k

g C

W p

ork

Carbon footprint of industrial swine production

Mitigation - What agriculture can do?

Sequestering Carbon

The organic carbon content in Ontario soils

has fallen by about 23% since the onset of

cultivation (23 t C/ha)

Carbon sequestration occurs when not all of

the 2.7 t/ha photosynthetic carbon added

annually is given off as C02

Carbon Sequestration

Mitigation - What agriculture can do?

• Energy Conservation

– Natural ventilation

– LED/ florescent lighting

– Insulation

– Heat recovery

Mitigation - What agriculture can do?

• Energy Generation

– Solar shop walls

– Ground source

heating

– Electricity generation

• Wind energy

• Solar electricity

• Anaerobic

digesters

– Biomass fuels

Mitigation - What agriculture can do?

Reduce nitrous oxide

emissions through

Applying the right rate

of nitrogen

Timing of nitrogen

fertilizer application

Minimizing the amount

of nitrogen in the soil

over winter

Opportunities and Challenges

• Reduced winter heating and increased

summer cooling costs for greenhouses

• Decrease in winter injury to orchards

• Increase in winter injury to crops requiring

snow cover

• Wetter springs may delay planting

• Higher yield from increased CO2 levels

• Hotter dryer summers will increase the

requirement for irrigation, limited water

supply could potentially reduce production

Adaptation

• Adaptation to climate change entails taking

measures to reduce the negative effects of

climate change or

• Take advantage of the positive effects

Adapting to Climate Change

• Crop production

– Development and selection of adapted

varieties and new crop species

– Monitoring of new pests and diseases

– Selection of resistant or tolerant varieties

• Water management

– Increase capacity for irrigation

– Improved water use efficiency

Adapting to Climate Change

• Soil Management

– Build organic matter to improve resistance

to wind and water erosion and increase

moisture holding capacity

– Use mulches to help keep soil cooler and

reduce moisture loss

– Utilize cover crops, crop residue and other

measures to protect the soil from wind and

water erosion

• Allowances: Emissions permits under cap

and trade, equivalent to 1 tonne of CO2e.

Those who are capped must have enough

allowances to cover their emissions.

• Offsets: A credit for a verified emissions

reduction (e.g. afforestation) that can be used

for up to 8% of a facility’s emissions when

submitting allowances.

Terminology

What is Cap and Trade?

offsets

Opportunities for Agriculture and Agri-food

• Offsets will be allowed as a compliance mechanism and could provide a revenue stream for farmers while reducing their carbon footprint

– Reductions in GHG emissions from OUTSIDE the capped sectors (i.e. forestry, agriculture)

– Credits may be traded

40

Proposed Offset Protocols Relevant to Ag.

Emission reductions from livestock associated with management of

manure and enteric fermentation

Nitrous oxide emission reductions from fertilizer management

Organic waste digestion

Organic waste management

Afforestation and forest projects including re-forestation, improved forest

management and avoided conversion

Conservation cropping (mainly tillage)

Grassland – avoided conversion to cropland

How much CO2 is emitted

https://www.epa.gov/energy/ghg-equivalencies-calculator-calculations-and-references

21.6 mpg (10.9 L/100km)

11,346 miles (18,260 km)

4.7 tonnes of CO2 emitted

C8H18 + O2 = H2O + CO2 2 25 18 16

Who participates in “Cap and Trade”?

Mandatory participants (must REPORT and

VERIFY)

• Facilities and natural gas distributors

(25,000+ tonnes GHG emissions)

• Fuel suppliers (200+ L fuel sold)

• Electricity importers

Voluntary participants (must REPORT and

VERIFY)

• Facilities (10,000 - 25,000 tonnes GHG emissions)

Market participants

• Individuals

• Not-for-profit organizations

• Companies without compliance obligations

https://www.ontario.ca/page/cap-and-trade-program-overview

What does 25,000 tonnes look like?

10,000 tonnes

5.2 million m3

6.4 million L

4.1 million L

3.6 million L

32 acres*

190,000 tonnes*

25,000 tonnes

13.2 million m3

16.1 million L

10.1 million L

9.1 million L

80 acres*

480,000 tonnes*

Natural gas

Propane

Gasoline

Diesel

Greenhouse

Grain Drying

*estimation, based on assumed energy use levels. Actual quantity may vary.

Carbon emissions of common ag practices

Agricultural practices kg CO2e / hectare

Individual tillage practices 2 – 20

Conventional till system 30 – 35

Minimum till system 6 – 8

Spraying 1 – 1.4

Seeding 2 – 4

Irrigation – 25 cm of water 7 – 425

Irrigation – 50 cm of water 53 – 850

Harvesting 6 – 12

https://sustainability.water.ca.gov/documents/18/3407432/Carbon+emission+from+farm+operati.pdf

Energy Costs Impacts

Cap and Trade — Cost to Energy Consumers (Budget 2016)

Electricity Costs - Commercial and Industrial $0/month

Electricity Costs - Residential – $2/month

Transportation - Gasoline Prices + 4.3 cents/litre

Transportation – Diesel Prices (source:

MOECC funded modeling) +5 cents/litre

Home Heating - Natural Gas Prices + 3.3 cents/cubic metre

Home Heating - Natural Gas Costs1 + $5/month

* These numbers were calculated prior to the HST discount announcement

C&T Implications for Livestock Producers

• Carbon sequestration or trading opportunities for

direct livestock agriculture will be few

• Energy (electricity) and Fuel (transport) effects at

farm level are yet to be seen and understood

• Impacts on other large emitters will be ‘downloaded’

(uploaded?)

• How does this affect future barn design? Production

systems? Cropping systems?

• How should Ontario’s producers position themselves

as a sector and as businesses?

What is the government doing?

Cap and Trade – in effect January 1, 2017

Climate Change Action Plan

Goal: help Ontario transition to “low-carbon economy”

Ag-specific programs announced:

• $15-20M for renewable natural gas production

• $50-115M for retrofits for agricultural facilities

and food processing facilities

• Up to $30M for soil health strategy

Growing Forward 2 and other funding for BMPs

ontario.ca/climatechange ontario.ca/capandtrade