Climate Change and New Technologies - Dräger-Stiftung€¦ · New Technologies Ron Oxburgh....
Transcript of Climate Change and New Technologies - Dräger-Stiftung€¦ · New Technologies Ron Oxburgh....
Climate Change and Climate Change and New TechnologiesNew Technologies
Ron OxburghRon Oxburgh
OutlineOutline
uu Time scales for changeTime scales for change
uu The technoThe techno--challengeschallenges
uu The developing worldThe developing world
TimeTime--scales for Changescales for Change
uu The climate The climate –– 380ppm today;@ 1.5 380ppm today;@ 1.5 ppmppm/a /a ⇒ ⇒ approx. 450 approx. 450 ppmppm by 2050by 2050
uu Implementation of new technologies Implementation of new technologies 15 15 –– 25 years25 years
uu Infrastructure Infrastructure –– now optimised to the now optimised to the wrong conditions wrong conditions -- 15 to 40 years 15 to 40 years replacement cyclereplacement cycle
InfrastructureInfrastructureuu Evolved over a period of low energy and low Evolved over a period of low energy and low
natural resource costs natural resource costs ––optimised to other optimised to other factorsfactors
uu Patterns of energy use locked into the Patterns of energy use locked into the infrastructureinfrastructure
uu But infrastructure is replaced over a time But infrastructure is replaced over a time scale of around 40 yearsscale of around 40 years
uu The climate models suggest that if emissions The climate models suggest that if emissions are controlled within 40 years the most are controlled within 40 years the most extreme effects of climate change could be extreme effects of climate change could be avoidedavoided
-- Cars 10 Cars 10 --15 years15 years-- Aircraft 20 Aircraft 20 --30 years30 years-- Wind turbines 25 yearsWind turbines 25 years-- Power plants 40+yearsPower plants 40+years-- Trains 30+ yearsTrains 30+ years-- Electricity distributionElectricity distribution
networks 40+ yearsnetworks 40+ years--Houses 70+ yearsHouses 70+ years
Long Timescales of Infrastructure Change
Means that fossil fuels will be with us for decadesMeans that fossil fuels will be with us for decades
Essential to capture the opportunity of the renewal Essential to capture the opportunity of the renewal cyclecycle
The TechnoThe Techno--challengeschallenges
uu MultiMulti--source biosource bio--fuel liquids at fuel liquids at low energy cost low energy cost –– jet fuel?jet fuel?
uu Energy Storage Energy Storage –– batteries or Hbatteries or H22
uu Low cost PVLow cost PV
uu Coal Coal -- low cost COlow cost CO22 separationseparation–– PrePre--combustioncombustion–– PostPost--combustioncombustion
Biomass Biomass –– Energy from PhotosynthesisEnergy from Photosynthesis
Traditional Biomass Traditional Biomass ‘‘Energy cropsEnergy crops’’
uu BioBio--diesel diesel –– rape, rape, linseed, etc.linseed, etc.
uu Ethanol Ethanol –– sugar cane, sugar cane, corn etc.corn etc.
But But –– energy cost?energy cost?Competition with food?Competition with food?
Energy Ratios of Corn vs. Cellulose Energy Ratios of Corn vs. Cellulose EthanolEthanol
02468
10121416
1 2 3 4 5 6
$20-30
Ener
gy
Units
Cultiv
ation
Ferti
lizer
Harve
sting
Proc
essin
g
Tota
l Fu
el E
ner
gy
Corn Ethanol, $60
Cellulose Ethanol
O/I = 1.2O/I = 10
Ethanol from StrawEthanol from Straw
First Cellulose Ethanol First Cellulose Ethanol Shipment: April 21, 2004Shipment: April 21, 2004
CoCo--production of food and fuelproduction of food and fuel
No all BioNo all Bio--fuels equally good for the fuels equally good for the environmentenvironment
00.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.09
0.1
Ethan
ol (Str
aw)
Ethano
l (whe
at)
Ethano
l (Bee
t)
Biodies
el (rap
e)
Ethan
ol (Us C
orn)
Unlead
ed Pe
trol
Low S
Diesel
Kg
CO
2eq
/ MJ
Data from Elsayed et al 2003
Future Biomass FlowsFuture Biomass Flows
uu ResiduesResidues–– AgriculturalAgricultural
uu Corn StrawCorn Strawuu Rice StrawRice Strawuu Forestry byForestry by--productsproducts
–– UrbanUrbanuu Organic component of Organic component of
urban rubbishurban rubbishuu Grass, leaves and tree Grass, leaves and tree
cuttingscuttings
uu Special crops on Special crops on marginal landmarginal land
uu AlgaeAlgae
uu BioBio--fuel liquids for fuel liquids for vehiclesvehicles
uu Gasification & Gasification & combustion for combustion for power generationpower generation
uu Non fuel Non fuel applications applications e.ge.gmaintain soil maintain soil qualityquality
•• CoCo--production of food and fuelproduction of food and fuel
COALCOALResources of Main Exporters and Resources of Main Exporters and
Importers of oil & gasImporters of oil & gas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mid E Russia Africa S.& C.Am
China India N.Am
Bill
ion
Tonn
e oi
l equ
ival
ent r
eser
ves
2003
oil
gasEXPORT IMPORT
Oil, Gas and CoalOil, Gas and Coal
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Mid E Russia Africa S.& C.Am
China India N.AmBill
ion
Tonn
e O
il E
quiv
alen
t Res
erve
s
oil
gas
coal
Emissions depend both on fuel and Emissions depend both on fuel and combustion modecombustion mode
00.050.1
0.150.2
0.250.3
0.35
Hard co
al Oil
Coal IG
CC Gas
Gas CCGT
Coal IG
CCS
Hydro
etc.
Nuclea
r
CO
2, k
g/M
J
Carbon Capture and StorageCarbon Capture and Storage
CO2
CO2
Capture
Transport
StorageCOALMINE
COAL
•Capital Cost
•Efficiency Loss
Europe & the Europe & the Developing WorldDeveloping World
Role of EuropeRole of Europe
uu Europe has an excellent engineering Europe has an excellent engineering and technology baseand technology base
uuQuantitatively Europe is relatively Quantitatively Europe is relatively unimportantunimportant
uu Europe has a vital role as role model Europe has a vital role as role model for the developing worldfor the developing world
The Developing World DilemmaThe Developing World Dilemmauu Ambassador BoltonAmbassador Bolton’’s meeting with s meeting with
diplomats from seven countries diplomats from seven countries ––including China and India, excluding including China and India, excluding EuropeEurope
uu ‘‘Notional $50 billionNotional $50 billion’’ to attack global to attack global problemsproblems
uu Chosen prioritiesChosen priorities–– Health careHealth care–– Water & SanitationWater & Sanitation–– SchoolsSchools–– Child nutritionChild nutrition
CLIMATE CHANGE
People and EmissionsPeople and Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0.0 2000.0 4000.0 6000.0 8000.0 10000.0
Millions of people
Gj p
er h
ead
per y
ear
Develop
ed
Emerg
ing
Develo
ping
Poore
st
2002
6.2 B
2050
9.2 B
ConclusionsConclusions
uu Essential to find technologies that:Essential to find technologies that:–– More or less allow the developed world to maintain More or less allow the developed world to maintain
standard of livingstandard of living–– Offer energy sources to the developing world are Offer energy sources to the developing world are
cheaper than emitting fossil COcheaper than emitting fossil CO22
uu New technologies take so long to implement that New technologies take so long to implement that we must start now and incorporate new we must start now and incorporate new developments as they occurdevelopments as they occur
uu All our efforts should be directed at helping the All our efforts should be directed at helping the developing world get their energy cleanlydeveloping world get their energy cleanly
Need for Energy Storage Need for Energy Storage -- Variable Variable Energy SourcesEnergy Sources
On a few occasions each On a few occasions each year there will be year there will be little or no wind at a little or no wind at a time of high demand time of high demand (Fig: 6GW fall over 48 (Fig: 6GW fall over 48 hrs)hrs)
uu ChoicesChoices–– Hydro back up Hydro back up –– very very
fast fast -- ideal (Norway)ideal (Norway)–– Gas Turbine back up Gas Turbine back up ––
effective and least effective and least expensiveexpensive
uu STORAGE STORAGE TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY
6
0
GW
GW
72 hrs
From EON, 2005
Intermittency & Load following problems could be Intermittency & Load following problems could be solved by costsolved by cost--effective electrical storageeffective electrical storage
From VRB Power Systems Inc
Concept of a Redox Flow Battery System (Regenesys Technology)
Fuel cell based; Electrolytes vanadium salts with different oxidation states. 75% efficient; 98% availability; response <5msec; 8 hr storage 2.3MWh. Negligible maintenance; capital cost?
Ireland at present working on a plan to generate half their electricity (2.4 GW) by wind using this technology