Climate change and its impact on health in the Pacific Basin Alistair Woodward School of Population...
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Transcript of Climate change and its impact on health in the Pacific Basin Alistair Woodward School of Population...
Climate change and its impact on health in the Pacific Basin
Alistair Woodward
School of Population Health
University of Auckland
Main points
• Climate change represents a new category of environmental problem
• Increased frequency of extreme weather will have most dramatic consequences for human health
• Changes in surface temperature, water availability and sea level will also affect the Pacific Basin
• In response, mitigation and adaptation are both required
“change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”
UN Convention on Climate Change
Climate change
Classic environmental health
New category of problem - global overload
Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at its highest level for400,000 years, and will double in the next century
Time
Business as Usual
S 750
S 550
PREDICTED CLIMATE CHANGE UNDER THREE SCENARIOS (UKMO)
4
3
2
1
Tempincrease(o C)
1900 2000 2100 2200
Changes in river runoff from the present day to the 2080s
Unmitigated emissions
University of Southampton
–75 –50 –25 –5 to 5 25 50 75Change in annual runoff (%)
In the 2050s, the Pacific will be
• warmer
• drier
• subject to more intense rainfall
• experiencing more intense storms
• facing sea level rise of about 20 cm
How climate change can cause disease and injury
Direct• Thermal extremes• Floods and storms
Indirect• Vector-borne disease• Other infections• Food shortages• Worsening pollution• Social disruption
HEAT WAVE - EUROPEHEAT WAVE - EUROPE
Heat Index, Summer 2003
An Estimated 14,800 Deaths occurred in France
Causes of European heatwave?
“well outside the range of expected variability”
“human-induced component of climate change has more than doubled the risk of heatwaves as extreme as the 2003 event”
Stott et al, Nature 2004;432:610-4
Small island regions and coastal flooding, HadCM2: thousands of people flooded per year
region 19902080 - business as
usual2080 - adaptation
Caribbean 10 1350 560
Indian Ocean 9 920 460
Pacific Ocean 4 290 160
from Nicholls et al, 1999
Increased sea surface temperatures associated with coral bleaching and increased rates of ciguatera (fish poisoning) in SW Pacific
Dengue
• Dengue fever is the world’s most important viral vector-borne disease.
• Affects hundreds of millions of people each year • Transmitted predominantly by a single species of
mosquito, Aedes aegypti. • This species is adapted to living near to human
habitation, feeds during the day and prefers humans to other species.
Model of baseline transmission (1961-1990 climate)
Model of future transmission (2080s climate)
Climate change - what to do about it?
• Mitigation– Reduce the use of oil and coal– Increase uptake of CO2 by carbon sinks– Capture, store and re-use emissions
• Adaptation– Manage ecosystems to reduce impact of climate change (eg
forests, marine reserves)– Design built environment for an altered climate– Health system change to reduce vulnerability (eg early warning
systems for heatwaves)– Social and economic policy (eg development assistance, trade,
migration)
Main points
• Climate change represents a new category of environmental problem
• Increased frequency of extreme weather will have most dramatic consequences for human health
• Changes in surface temperature, water availability and sea level will also affect the Pacific Basin
• In response, mitigation and adaptation are both required