Climate Change and its Impact Any change is climate due to natural variability or

as a result of human activity– IPCC

Worldwide consensus that global temperature is real

Scientists have been presenting evidences and tested different models

Air temperature near surface increased by 0.74 from 1906 to 2005

It may reach (estimated) 6.4 at the end of 21st century

Because the Green House Gasses (CO2, Mithen, Nitroxide, Chlorofloro Carbons CFCs, Ozone) are increasing in atmosphere which absorbs heat in atmosphere.

In Nepal the temperature is increased by 0.060c in between 1977 and 1994

The estimation shows that it will increased by 1.50 c by 2050 and 30c by 2100

Nepal is much vulnerable in terms of climate change effect due to:

Mountainous country, temperature increases rate is high with increasing altitude

Underdeveloped economy and poverty

• The temperature increasing rate is also different in summer (40) and winter (30)

Region Annual Temperature Change

Trans Himalayas 0.09

Himalayas 0.06

Middle Hill 0.08

Siwalik 0.04

Terai 0.04

Nepal 0.06

Evidences of Climate Change• Very Hazzy Winter • Very hotter summer months including heat

wave• Late or pre monsoon (93 % rainfall during

monsoon)• Unusual precipitation• Retreating of glacier (30-60 meter per year)• Migration (vertical) of animal and plant

species

• Increasing rainfall• Falling rainfall days• Cold waves• Increasing temperature• Decreased snow area (10 % decline after

1996)• Increase dangerous Glacier Lakes• Extended dry seasons

Theories of Climate Change• There are different theories about what

are the reasons behind changing climate

• Some explain its cause on the basis of facts related to the earth, some in solar system and some in atmospheric facts.

• Now researcher, development worker and environmental experts are raising their voice on facts related to human activities

Astronomical or Orbital Theories• Eccentricity of Earth’s Orbit: Change in Earth’s

orbit in 90,000 or 100,000 years.

• Obliquity of the Earth’s Axis: the axis is tilted to 23.50, it will change frequently to 22.10 and 24.50

• Wobbling of the earth’s Axis: the motion of the earth axis is uncertain, now it is just above the Dhurba tara. Scientists are predicting that it will be above Vega star in 14000 years.

Theories related to Displacement of Continents

• Continental Drift Theory- Wegener

• Initially the earth were consolidated in a single land mass (PANGEA) surrounded by large water bodies (PANTHALASA)

• About 200 millions years ago, the PANGEA break into two land masses, LAURESIA and GONDWANALAND.

• They again break into different land masses that exist today

• Plate Techtonic Theory

Theories related to Change in composition of Atmosphere

• Carbon dioxide Theory

• Volcanic Dust Theory

– Little ice age

Geographic Theorymajor geographical upheavals

Theory related to change in solar radiation

• The HDR 2011 “Sustainability and Equity: A Better Future” has threatened that development progress in the world’s poorest countries could be halted or even reversed by mid-century unless bold steps are taken now to slow climate change, prevent further environmental damage, and reduce deep inequalities within and among nations.

• According to the report, environmental sustainability can be most fairly and effectively achieved by addressing health, education, income, and gender disparities together with the need for global action on energy production and ecosystem protection.

• By 2050, in an “environmental challenge” scenario factoring in the effects of global warming on food production and pollution, the average HDI would be 12 percent lower in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa than would otherwise be the case, the Report estimates.

• Under an even more adverse “environmental disaster” situation—with vast deforestation, dramatic biodiversity declines and increasingly extreme weather—the global HDI would fall 15 percent below the baseline projection for 2050, with the deepest losses in the poorest regions.

• Four Himalayan nations (Bhutan, Nepal, Bangaladesh, India) facing the threat of weather changes have agreed to collaborate on ways to adapt to climate change by cooperating on energy, water, food and biodiversity issues after a two-day summit in Bhutan 19-20 Nov, 2011.

• The organizers downplayed that, saying that the summit was focused on securing ecosystems, endangered species and food and water sources for only the Himalayas' eastern part.

• The summit called for action amid the international community's inability to agree on limiting greenhouse gas emissions blamed for global climate change. The next round of U.N. climate talks begin in Durban, South Africa Nov. 28, but the expectations of any breakthrough there are limited.

• As part of the declaration the four nations agreed to work together to increase access to "affordable and reliable" clean energy resources and technology through a regional knowledge sharing mechanism.

• The most contentious part of the talks dealt with water security. They agree to work together on ecosystem and disaster management, sharing their knowledge in water use efficiency.

• Regional tensions have long prevented Himalayan cooperation, including basic research in the world's largest block of glaciers outside the polar regions, and accounting for 40 % of the world's fresh water.

• There was also consensus on food security and securing livelihoods and the deal covers way to adapt and improve food production and help vulnerable communities get better access to nutritious food.

Durban Meeting????

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Increase Temperature

• Population carbon Emission ratio 0.4/0.025 %

• 0.13 ton per person carbon emission

• Seasonal variation in temperature rise

• Up to 20 rise in winter lowest temperature

• 2004 (30) and 2005 (48) people died due to heat and cold wave

Melting of Glacier• Temperature of Himalayas is increased by about 1

percent over a decade

• The glacier of this region are melting

• All are reducing/ some already vanished

• UNEP 2005 more than 2 dozens glacier lake are in danger of outburst

• Most dangerous one is Tsho Rolpa, if outburst, it can affect up to 100 km downward.

• 2003 Kabari Glacier lake outburst in 2003 which resulted 5 people died and loss of about 8 million Rs.

Rise in Mean Sea Level• About 10-12 cm sea level rise

• It may reach up to 50 cm in 2100.

• Now about 120 million people live in about 3 feet from the MSL

• Due to loss of Mangroves and wetland ecosystem, the coastal area will be affected by sea wind (aandhi)

Impact on Water Resources• Due to glacier melting and decrease in snow

fall, the fresh water will be in shortage that support for the ‘war for water’

• According to a report 25 corror people will be in shortage of water in 2020.

• Short term rise in water level in river but finally it will decrease down.

• Catastrphic rain more surface runoff, low level of gorund water recharge.

Impact on Biodiversity and Ecological System

• If 1.5 degree rise in temperature 20-30 percent plant species in danger of extinction

• One study estimates that about one-fourth of the animal species will be extinct by 2050.

• No polar bear after 100 years from now

• One study of York university ‘insects are vertically migrating 67 meter every year’

• In Nepal due to the rainfall variability, herbal species such as Jatamasi, Jimbu are difficult to find normally, which has changed the livelihood strategies of Himalayan people.

• The season and duration of flowering and fruiting is changed of different plant species

• The flowering time of plants has shifted 5 days in every 25 years.

Impact on Agriculture• One third land area of the world is under agriculture

• 45 percent people of the world are employed under agriculture

• Developing countries are more depended on agriculture as compared to developed countries

• So, it is obvious to have more impact on agriculture in the developing countries like Nepal

• Due to increased temperature the soil moisture is reduced as a result more irrigation is needed, which bring problem like siltation, salinization and Alklination

• Monsoon dependent nature in developing countries– due to climate change, late or pre-monsoon is regular phenomenon. As a result the agriculture will be badly impacted by the same

• Climate change bring catastrophic rainfall and windstorm which destroy the staple crops.

• Hazzy winter affect the production of pulses and oilseeds

• It also impact on animal husbandry, fishery development

Natural Disaster• Flood and landslide due to catastrophic rainfall• Drought due to insufficient rainfall• Hot and cold wave• Some of the researcher are searching the

relationship of Seti flood 2012 with climate change.

• Unusual precipitation damage the crop---- rainfall during the time of harvesting

Impact on Public Health

• 1500 people were died due to hot wave ‘Loo’• Different bacteria emerging due to increasing

temperature• Different water borne diseases due to polluted

water.• WHO estimates that there is death of 150000

people in 2000 directly or indirectly from climate change.

Climate Change

Direct ExposureHigh temperature, extreme rainfallHot wave, Cold wave, Extreme fog condition, natural hazard

Effect on social activitiesMigration to slum area, change in settlement pattern, Food storage capacity

Effect on economic activity and conditionAgricultural production,OccupationIncome, exchange, access to market, industry

Influence on health systemIncrease patient-doctor ratio, unidentified diseases,low performance of drug

Effect on human health

Impact on Food Security

• Effect on all four dimensions• Food availability• Food access• Food utilization• Stability of above three

Changing Landscape

• Permafrost melting• Ecological shift• It affect the growth and development of plant

species due to increase of dry season

Social Impact

• Impact on livelihood of people (change in livelihood)

• Migration of people

Economic Losses

• One estimates says that there will be 5 to 20 percent duduction in GDP in developing countries at the end of the century.

• Economic activities will be hampered• Different activities and resorts in the

Himalayan and Alps region such as Ski will be closed

• Economic loss due to windstorm

Adaptation to Climate Change

• Mitigation Strategy• Adaptation strategy

Mitigation Strategy

•Carbon reduction•Carbon sequestration•Carbon trade•Alternative energy promotion

Adaptation Strategy• Watershed Management• Crop calendar in Agriculture• Introduction of new species• Disaster resist building• Training to the disaster manager• Increase access to health service• Access to food• Empowerment of women• Micro finance/community finance

• Incentive/insurance• Improve immunization power among people• Multi stakeholders coordination• Prepare local adaptation strategies• Implement National Adaptation Plan of Action

(NAPA) and Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)

Local Adaptation in Nepal• Adopting suitable crop species and varieties• Irrigation (micro/drip)/water conservation (water harvest) • Adoption of organic farming practices, turning to

indigenous technology• Early warning system and forecasting• Improved agriculture and agro forestry• Agriculture management and activities change• Establishment of farmer cooperatives or community

based fund• Improve farmers' access to inputs• Livelihood diversification• Migration