Climate Change and Its Effects onWater Quality and Quantity: 

The Escalating Need for Conflict Management 

Introduction

• The number of trans-national conflicts over shared water resources will increase in the near future.

• This may be exacerbated by the impacts of global climate change.

Global Water Shortages

• 70% of the earth’s surface is covered by water.

• However, 97% of the world’s water is saline.

• Of the remaining 3%, 75% locked-up in glaciers and ice.

• 25% may be available.

• Of the 25% that is available:

• 0.03% is in rivers

• 0.06% is in soils

• 0.3% is in lakes

• 11 % is in shallow groundwater (< 2500 foot depth)

• 14% is in deep groundwater (> 2500 foot depth)

• Population growth:• Increasing per capita demand:• Per capita consumption:• Increasing industrial use - need for economic development • Increasing irrigated agriculture, especially in parts of

world where water supplies may already be inadequate.

• Reduction of Supplies

• Contamination of existing supplies (especially ground water)

• “Mining” of ground water (utilization of “fossil” ground water)

• Climate change - present global warming models indicate likelihood of:

Future shortages

• By 2025, 48 countries expected to face water supply shortages:

• Total population total of 2.8 billion people (35% of projected world population) will live under water short conditions.

• By 2050

• 54 countries expected to face water shortages

• Total population of 4 billion people (40% of projected world population) will live under water short conditions

From Postel & Wolf, Dehydrating Conflict, Foreign Policy, October/November (2001).

• Potential for conflict – National (continued):

– Areas where conflict potential greatest

• Asia (60% of world population, 36% of renewable supplies of freshwater, heavily dependent on irrigation, future municipal supplies likely to come from irrigation water supplies)

• China, India, Iran and Pakistan (increasing depletion of groundwater, reduced or increasingly variable surface water flows, buildup of salts in soils, “zero-sum game” in water management)

• Potential for conflict – International:

– Situation: Nearly 100 countries share just 13 major rivers and lakes

– In Africa alone there are some 50 rivers that are shared by two or more countries

– Some 261 rivers cross international boundaries

– These shared watersheds contain 60% of the world’s renewable supplies of freshwater

 – These watersheds also contain approximately 40% of

the global population

From Postel & Wolf, Dehydrating Conflict, Foreign Policy, October/November (2001).

The Escalating Need for Conflict Management

• At both the national and the international levels, there will be increasing conflict among different water users.

• Such conflicts are never resolved. • The need is for conflict management.

• Four key components 

• Four key components (continued)

1. Reduction of demand

• More efficient use of water resources (improved irrigation systems, municipal and industrial systems designed to minimize water requirements)

• Population stabilization 

• Four key components (continued)

2. Increase of supply

• Potential for desalinization (but must consider energy costs and waste disposal issues)

• Climate change may make additional water supplies available in some parts of the world

• Four key components (continued)

3. Recognition and control of the destabilizing impacts of unilateral actions.

4. Development of new multilateralinstitutions