CLIMATE CHANGE and its EFFECTS on human behavior and HEALTH

Can we actually determine whether the climate is changing because of us and we are suffering the consequences? 

• Jim Lovelock’s theory;• The human influence on the

climate;• John Tyndall’s researches;• Melting ice caps;• Impacts on water availability.

Chris Rapley answers this key question: NO science has never completely solved this dilemma! However, all of the scientific world has almost reached a consensus that our climate system is CHANGING and human activities are the DOMINANT DRIVING FORCE!

Yes, on long time scales for many reasons. One of these is because the energy output of the Sun varies. The solar luminosity has increased by about 30% for four billions and five hundred thousand years of life on the planet. In addition the very biosphere growth has altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere.

Has the climate changed before?

Jim Lovelock has a theory on terrestrial biology:

The amount of heat captured by the gas keeps the surface of the planet much warmer than it should be.Changes in the content of the atmosphere have had a major impact on global temperatures.

Also the slow drift of the continents changes the way in which the heat is absorbed and reflected by the surface of the planet. We know that, in recent geological history, changes in the tilt of the Earth's precession and the change in the shape of Earth's orbit have caused cycles of ice ages and interglacials.

Are the present circumstances unusual?

In 2011 the world's population has exceeded seven billion people. We know that the human impact on the planet has immediate consequences and reduces the efficiency with which we use resources and energy. 

Paul Clutzen, described the current era as the Anthropocene, because future generations will be characterized by the influence of humans on the planet as dominant. We have transformed nearly 50% of the Earth's surface, and the effects on habitat, species, and on the nitrogen cycle of the use of fertilizers are dramatic.

Our greatest impact, however, has been the combustion of half a trillion tons of carbon of fossil fuels to power the wealth and prosperity of the modern world and, in doing so, we have inadvertently increased the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This amount corresponds precisely to that responsible for the natural passage between glacial periods and interglacial period, when global temperatures vary by approximately 5° C. But this has occurred in only 100 years!

 John Tyndall, with his research, has found that nitrogen and oxygen, that compose the 98% of the atmosphere, are transparent to heat. The remaining 2% of atmospheric gases (e.g. (carbon dioxide, water vapour) prevent radiant heat to go directly into space. Without atmosphere, the Earth's surface would be 30° C colder and the surface of the planet would be icy.

How does the ocean affect the climate change?

The ocean covers 70% of Earth's surface and it is darker than earth.It absorbs about 90% of the thermal imbalance due to the greenhouse effect.

In the cryosphere, the water is frozen, however there has been an acceleration of its melting and therefore the water flows back into the ocean, raising sea level.

Melting ice caps

Does it matter?

The planet waters must redistribute the heat from warmer areas to colder areas, creating winds that carry water vapor around the planet. We have used this to our benefit: for instance for our water supply, our food supply, our transportation systems, etc. 

A massive climate change has had a big impact on water availability.

Nick Stern noted that the climate has been changing and that the interaction between climate change and human beings is mediated through the water:

- an extreme lack of water causes drought- an excess of water causes floods.

Both are indicative of climate change.

How long should we wait while the statistics becomes more and more alarming, before we act prudently?

What can we do?We should limit the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, in order to avoid climate change which is deemed dangerous for mankind and we should do more than what we are doing now. Allegedly, the present change is ten times bigger than the one that took place between the last ice age and the current interglacial period, and it has caused an increment in temperatures of more than 2° C, which is the safe threshold. Only blind optimism can believe that humanity might just adapt. This is the time to make a change in human affairs, to strengthen our responsibilities and ensure effective and concrete action.

Climate change and human health

• Effects of the climate changes on the health;

• Prediction for the future;• Africa’s weakness.

It is not easy to associate climate changes to possible effects

on health, because human beings are exposed to many environmental factors that affect them in positive and negative ways.

In the most developed countries, humans have adapted to live in different places and climates. The knowledge of treatment and management of diseases is better and this fact complicates even more the ability to predict the consequences of global warming.

Effects of the climate changes on the health

Effects of heat and heat waves on health;

More deaths and illnesses caused by extreme weather events;

Earlier pollen season in the northern hemisphere;

More deaths and diseases caused by air pollutants;

Changes in the spatial distribution, in the intensity and seasonality of the epidemics of diseases and vector-borne diseases;

Increase of food-borne diseases and toxins produced by the increase in the supply of algae;

Worsening of malnutrition of the population in developing countries because of the drought and the decrease in agricultural crops;

More vulnerability of people living in low coastal areas due to the infiltration of salt water into sweet water reserves, resulting in floods and consequent movements of the population;

More vulnerability of the community who live in the Artic due to changes of diet related to the migration and distribution of animals.

Predictions for the future of the Europe’s

conditions* In Europe we will experience a greater warming in northern regions in winter, and an increase in the annual average of rainfall in the centre and southern summer.

* In the southern areas periods of drought will become more frequent and the climatic conditions will be hotter.

What can we do?

*The answer to counter the effects of climate changes is adaptation: we should implement warning systems to predict in advance the arrival of a hazard to public health and prevention programs targeted at groups at risk.

*However some of the adaptation actions,

if carried out for long time, might increase

the energy and C O2 emissions.

*The optimal option for adaptation

to climate.

* change vary from region to region.

The most of the actions are to prepare for

disaster and improving health services.

Which will be the continent most

affected?*As far as health is concerned, Africa is the most vulnerable continent: an increase in temperatures will decrease in agricultural yields and will exacerbate malnutrition of the population.

Health risks due to climate change

• The health impacts of heat waves;

• Extreme weather events;• The alteration of air quality;• Yields food;• The rates of bacterial growth;• The range and activity of

disease vectors;• The flow of water.

Immediate and direct risks

The immediate and direct risks include :

• the health impacts of heat waves, • extreme weather events• the alteration of air quality.

• The frequency of episodes of extreme heat will increase with the increase in average temperatures, and the heat waves and extreme weather events are also tending to become more variable.

Indirect risks

The indirect risks result from changes and disruptions of ecological and biophysical systems, which affect:

• yields food;• the rates of bacterial growth;• the range and activity of disease vectors;• the flow of water.

The increase in temperatures reduces the solubility of gases in water: the oxygen concentration drops of 10% of saturation with an increase of 3 degrees.

Much attention has been paid to the influence of climate on yields of food in relation to export earnings, livelihoods, health of the community but the ultimate effect of a decrease in the production of food is hunger, malnutrition, vulnerable children, susceptibility to infection, decrease in health and strength of adults and premature death. In addition, the climate can bring about potentially disastrous effects for the poor, in terms of food prices.

•  

Yields food

Agriculture and nutrition contribute by 10-12% to the global greenhouse gas emissions, with important contributions from deforestation and other land usage. Also, many of the emissions are attributed to farm animals which emit methane.

The changing climate conditions will affect many infectious diseases and the maturation and multiplication of pathogens. An example is the increase in cases of campylobacteriosis, and of salmonella infection as a result of the rise in temperature. These risks can be offset in countries with sufficient resources to treat these diseases, but this may not be true in other countries.

The rates of bacterial growth and the range and activity of disease vectors

• Surface erosion is the result of the transport of material brought

by heavy rains, which are expected to increase in frequency, in temperate countries, with the progress of climate change.

• The contamination of water is becoming widespread and increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and humidity may extend.

The flow of water

Risks associated with conflicts

• The principal causes of conflicts;

• Types of diseas wich are sensitive to climatic conditions;

• The consequences of not facing the problems;

Climate and weather may also affect the risk of conflict, this is evident from history. Disease, hunger, drought, loss of habitat, loss of natural resources, and the economic cracks are the principal causes of conflicts.Climate change thus acts as a force which amplifies the negative health effects of other environmental stressors. Populations at high risk of diseases which are very sensitive to climatic conditions: childhood diarrhea, malaria, malnutrition and exposure to extreme heat in the workplace may increase, with a detrimental impact on health even with relatively small changes in climate.

Not someone else problem!

The United Kingdom, the European Union, and the United States of America are facing many challenges such as the global economic crisis, so they tried to dismiss the climate change issue and consider it as “someone else’s problem”.However, events occurring miles away can have an impact on the interests andsecurity of our nations. A recent example is the negative repercussions on Europeans and U.S. companies after the floods in Thailand. These floods have destroyed severalconsumable goods, such as replacement batteries of cars or computer chips, thus slowing down the production line. At the same time they have also suffered the loss of rice crops. 

The solutions• Low carbon economy;• Electricity production;• Indoor air pollution;• Potential health benefits of

mitigating actions.

Health has not been taken into account in climate policies, there are many benefits to health that are related to a low carbon economy. This has often forgotten by politicians.

Low carbon economy

The majority of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions come from transports, electricity production, indoor air pollution, agriculture and emissions from the production of food.

Electricity production

Avoiding the combustion of coal to generate electricity will reduce both carbon dioxide emissions and fine particulate air pollution. A number of studies have estimated health benefits from low carbon electricity production. In India around 90000 premature deaths annually could be avoided if coal combustion were reduced and new ways to generate electricity were implemented.

Indoor air pollution

WHO estimates that in 2004 over half of the cases of pneumonia in children were related to exposure to indoor smoke from the combustion of biomass or coal in inefficient cook stoves or open fires. Indoor air pollution also causes chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, particularly in women.  

The sudden changes between rain and drought period have contributed to increase commodity prices, threatening the nutrition of the world’s poorest populations. At the same time the population of the rich states continue to consume meat and dairy products which can increase ischaemic heart diseases and strokes. 

Potential health benefits of mitigating actionsAn increment in the use of public transport, bicycle or walking could increase physical activity, reduce obesity and lead to better physical and mental condition. In high-income countries, where the average daily consumption of red meat in general is very high, a decrease in production and consumption of meat could lead to health benefits with a reduced risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer.  

Potential health benefits of mitigating actions

Resource security

• The armed forces’ roles;• Our contributions;• Humanitarian assistance;

Time for a strategic viewTo tackle climate change, nations should adopt a strategic approach. We should not just focus on threats, but also identifying opportunities, including that of economic growth.The armed forces have a role to play in this process, both nationally and internationally.

Time for a strategic view

First, the armed forces can help in the development and understanding of the risks and this will have an impact on global stability, and the interests of individual nations.There is a need to improve our collective knowledge of how people react to the loss of land and livelihoods. Realising the importance of these dangers, it is necessary to ensure that they are included in the strategies of national security.

How can we contribute?

Humanitarian assistance in case of disasters

Second, the analysis of risks and impacts can be used to determine potential futuremissions for the armed forces. An example is the provision of humanitarian assistance incase of disasters, something that the military often have to do.

During the hurricane season, the ship of the Royal Navy operating in the Caribbean istrained to perform this role and is often called upon to do so.

In the future, with the increased likelihood of extreme weather events, especially in theIndian Ocean and South Asia, it might be necessary to have the same skills available in all ships. 

The choices made in the development of these resources must recognize the potential impact on the environment and global security.

Contraction and Convergence

• Contraction and convergence’s strategy;

• More solutions;• What do we need to ensure the

projects?

Contraction and Convergence (C & C) is a proposal of a global scheme for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change. The strategy of contraction and convergence was conceived by the Global Commons Institute and points to the overall reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to a level considered safe (contraction), obtained by making the emissions of each country (convergence) at the same level per capita. This strategy should form the basis of an international agreement to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

• Another possible solution could be to produce more energy from renewable sources, thus reducing CO2 emissions.

• In 1991, for example, Germany introduced a grant by which the government paid a sum of money to produce energy from renewable sources.

Any solution must reshape the global environment and allow other projects to develop. To ensure that these projects succeed we need:

• a constant effort to reduce CO2 emissions;• a mechanism to transfer resources in the countries

where the use of fossil fuels is low;• new developments that allow to make choices that

involve low emissions of carbon dioxide.

POLITICS AND POLICIES:making change happen

Climate change is a global factor with massive economic, legal, energy, and financial implications, and it will be one of the key determining factors of international relations.

Commitments made in the past in the

world:• 1972: first global conference of the UN at Stockholm is

held;• 1972: the UNEP ( United Nations Environmental

Programme) is born: the program of the UN on environmental problems aiming at coordinate and promote the initiatives of the UN;

• 1988: the IPCC, a intergovernmental group of experts on climate changes, is created;

• 1990: the first report of the IPCC which puts forward the possibility that greenhouse gases, emitted by humans activity, contribute to climate change, is published;

•  

1992: at Rio de Janeiro the first convention on climate change (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC) in which all heads of state take parts is held.1997: in Kyoto, 160 countries sign an international treaty on global warming.2005: the Treaty of Kyoto becomes effective.2009: In Copenhagen the last summit of UNFCCC takes place.

European political position

• - In 2008, the European Council approved the cimate-energy package whose primary objectives for 2020 are:

• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20%, with respect to 1990;

• Reach a share of 20% reusable energy consumption of the European Union;

• Reduce by 20% the energy consumption, compared to the projections for 2020.

Italian government position

• 2002: the Ministry of Environment put forward the national action plan to reduce emission of greenhouse gases: Italy commits to reduce by 6,5% the greenhouse gas emissions;

• 2008: EU lower Italy’s target of gas emission ( from 20% to 5,5% compared to 1990) and reusable energy (from 20% to 17%);

• 2009: the Senate denis human responsibility for global warming and replace actions to reduce greenhouses gases with adaptive interventions. Moreover it aims at reviewing the European agreement.

The geopolitical consequences of climate change are real and imminent and they are an issue for Europe and Europe's foreign services.

First, high level foreign policy forums need to engage with the problem.

When the United Kingdom took the topic of climate change to

the United Nations Security Council in 2007 it met strong opposition. Germany, also, had been explicit in its campaign for a seat on the Security Council that climate change would be one of the major topics for its time there, and reintroduced the topic in July 2011.

The Security Council accepted a presidential statement that climate change represents a threat to peace and security. The topic was accepted by the Group of 77 nations (G-77).

Secondly, we need to find a balance between the interests of industrialized countries and developing countries, between exporters and importers of fossil fuels, technologically between advanced and less advanced economies, and between vulnerable and more robust regions.

The third suggestion is for dialogue with the public.

Politicians and Government representatives need to tell people that climate change is a topic not only for scientists and experts but for everybody.

People must be aware of the problem so they can act to improve the environment with a right behavior.

Bibliography

1) T. McMichael, H. Montgomery, A. Costello: Health risks, present and future, from global climate change BMJ2012;344:e1359 doi: 10.1136/bmj.e1359 (Published 19 March 2012);

2) A. Haines, C. Dora: How the low carbon economy can improve health BMJ 2012;344:e1018 doi: 10.1136/bmj.e1018 (published 19 Marhch 2012);

3) R. Scott: Contraction and convergence: the best possible solution to the twin problems of climate change and inequity BMJ 2012;344:e1765 doi: 10.1136/bmj.e1765 (published 19 March 2012);

4) H. Thölken: Politics and policies: making changes happen BMJ 2012;344:e1356 doi 10.1136/bmj.e1356 (published 19 March 2012);

5) C. Ralpey: The health impacts of climate changes BMJ2012;344:e1026 doi: 10.1136/bmj.e1026 (published 19 March 2012);

6) P. Michelozzi, M. De Sario: Cambiamenti climatici, effetti sulla salute, interventi di mitigazione Editoriale Epidemiol prev 2009; 33 (6).