Climate Change and India

Sumana Bhattacharya NATCOM PMC

Winrock International India

International Workshop on Future International Climate Policy

August 9, 2006, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Climate Change and India

The setting

Climate change Actions

Institutional Arrangement

Major Climate Change Activities

Adaptation and Development

Occupies 2.4% (3.28 million sq. km of the worlds land area but support 16.2% (more than 1 billion) of the worlds human population

Diverse physiographic features - Himalayas, Coastal areas, northern plains, peninsular plateau and islands

Dominating feature of climate is the Monsoon

Endowed with varied climate, biodiversity and ecological regions (Forest Cover about 675.5 thousand sq km

2/3 rd population dependent on climate sensitive sectors

Poverty ratio at national poverty line ~ 28.6 % of total population

Agricultural land ~ 60.8% of total land area

CO2 emissions ~ 1. 2 t per capita

Energy use~ 508.8 kg of oil equivalent per capita

GDP (current US$) ~ 691.2 billion

GDP growth : 7% annually (average)

Diverse natural conditions, high population, limited and degraded natural resources

The Setting

NATCOM-1 submitted to UNFCCC

India ratifies UNFCCC

India ratifies Vienna Convention

India acceded to Montreal Protocol

Establishment of Ministry of Non Conventional Energy Sources

Establishment of Ozone Cell in MoEF

Ratifies Kyoto Protocol

Energy Conservation Act

Electricity Act

Climate Change Action

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Air pollution Act Act 1981, amended 1987

Environmental protection Act 1986, amended 1991

Forest Conservation Act 1980, amended 1988

Institutional structure for climate change action in India

Ministry of Environment & Forests

Joint Secretary, Climate Change Focal Point

Advisor, MoEFJoint Secretary, GEF Focal Point

India’s National Communication to the UNFCCC

Network of institutes

CDM

Climate change activities and policy measures

Other communications and submissions to the UNFCCC

Project proponent for funding through GEF

Implementing Agency for the GEF

DNA

Clean Development Mechanism

DNA 2004

Secretary, MoEF

Ministries of:Foreign AffairsFinanceIndustrial Policy & Promotion Non-Conventional Energy Sources PowerPlanning Commission and Environment & Forests

Registered Projects in UNFCCC - 256

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Country wise CERs (total :72.72 million tCO2/yr)

Total projects approved by DNA

Fuel Switching 7%

Solid wate 1%

Indutrial proceesses

7%

Energy efficiency 30%

Renewable energy 55%

Energy efficiency (28)

Renewable energy (51)

Fuel Switching (6)

Indutrial proceesses (6)

Solid wate (1)

Institutional Arrangement - NATCOM

Ministry of Environment and Forests

National Steering Committee Technical Assessment Committee

Chair : Secretary, MoEF

Inventory

Uncertainty Reduction

V&A

GHG Emissions from Sources and Removals by Sinks - India 1994

Relative GHG Emissions

Gas by Gas emission distribution

Sectoral Distribution of GHG emissions

Emissions in terms of CO2 equivalent

• Climate projection scenarios (RCM, HadCM2)• National Impact Assessment Studies on:

- Water Resources- Agriculture - Forests & other Natural Ecosystems - Coastal Zones- Human health - Energy and Infrastructure

Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation

www.natcomindia.org

Climate ProjectionsAv. Surface temperature: increase by 2 - 4°C during 2050s

Monsoon Rainfall: Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS)

: Large changes during non-monsoon months

No. of rainy days: set to decrease by more than 15 days

Intensity of rains : to increase by 1-4 mm/day

Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is projected

Acute physical water scarce conditionsConstant water scarcities and shortageSeasonal / regular water stressed conditionsRare water shortages

Key Vulnerable River Basins

•Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India - For example a a 2°C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions.

•Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture.

•The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.

Agriculture

Coastal Zones

Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR

•Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly intense events are projected during the post-monsoon period

•Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization.

7500 km coast line

Forestry77% and 68% of the forested grids in India are likely to experience shift in forest types

Indications show a shift towards wetter forest types in the northeastern region and drier forest types in the northwestern region in the absence of human influence.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate warming could also result in a 50 to 70% increase under the B2 scenario

Dry savannah

Xeric Shrub land

Xeric woodland

Tropical Seasonal Forest

Boreal Evergreen

Tundra

Simulated

Projected

Health

Malaria is likely to persist in many states and new regions at hogher latitudes may become malaria-prone

The duration of the malaria transmission windows is likely to widen in northern and western states and shorten in southern states.

Endemic regions of malaria

Regions likely to be affected by malaria in 2050s

Features / Limitations of Impact Assessments Made so Far

• Impact based• Impact assessment made using climate change

projections based on a single model outputs (RCM Had RM2) and single scenario

• Uncertainty of projections of climate parameters at regional level

• Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts at regional level (forests, crop production, water)

• Limited data availability

Studies on coping measures

Droughts Floods

Rajasthan Assam

Karnataka UP

AP Bihar

Gujarat Orissa

Chattisgarh

Single stress – climate change

Climate variability and change

Multiple stresses

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•CIDA agr

•SIDA Agri

• APN agr/climate info•OFDA floods/droughts

• WB agr/water

• APN agr/rice-wheat

•Natcom agr/wat/for/health

•Indo-UK agr/wat/ for/health/coastal

•Natcom coastal/disasters

•Ford SLR•APN glaciers

•WB agr

Adaptation Analysis- so far

• Preliminary assessments made for different sectors; including assessment of current policies and programmes in relation to vulnerability

• Most policies, measures & technologies also address current stresses to some extent and also relevant for adaptation to climate change (water, forest, agriculture, etc.)

• Still, incremental mechanisms needed to address climate change impacts

• Further analysis needed to identify adaptation technologies, measures, institutions, financial needs for adaptation at local levels

Immediate task in Preparation for Adaptation to Climate Change

• Improve existing climate scenario projections and the sectoral impact assessments

• Develop socio economic scenarios in conjunction with India’s developmental path

• Carry out studies at identified climatically hotspot areas

• Institute an integrated approach to understand the inter-sectoral linkages affecting the physical and socio economic vulnerabilities at local levels

• Carry out analysis to formulate adaptation frameworks at these scales which can provide inputs for the development of a national adaptation plan for combating the adverse effects of climate change.

• Strengthen policies for food security, forests, manage disasters and infrastructure development

• Appropriate allocation of funds for National Development Programme Implementation

• Step up observation systems & technology development and dissemination

• Strengthen Institutional mechanisms as instruments of adaptation at local level

• Arrangement of funds for adaptation• Mainstream climate change concerns and hence adaptation in

the planning process• Consider Development as one of the pathways for adaptation

Steps Facilitating Adaptation at National and Local Level

India’s Development Goals

1. Reducing the poverty ratio by 5 percentage points by 2007 and by 15 percentage points by 2012

2. Providing gainful and high-quality employment to the labor force

3. All children in school by 2003; all children to complete 5 years of schooling by 2007

4. Reducing gender gaps in literacy and wage rates by at least 50 % by 2007

5. Raising the literacy rate to 75% within the 10th Plan

6. Reducing the decadal rate of population growth between 2001-2011 to 16.2%

The goals in blue are more ambitious than corresponding MDGs

India’s Developmental Goals…7. Reducing the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) to 45 per 1000 live births

by 2007 and to 28 by 2012

8. Reducing the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to 2 per 1000 live births by 2007 and to 1 by 2012

9. Increasing the forest and tree cover to 25 % by 2007 and 33 % by 2007

10. All villages to have sustained access to potable drinking water by 2007

11. Electricity for all by 2012

12. Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007 and other notified stretches by 2012

• The Indian Government has targeted an 8% GDP growth rate per annum for 2002–07 to achieve its development priorities

• In order to achieve these developmental aspirations, substantial additional energy consumption will be necessary and coal, being the abundant domestic energy resource, would continue to play a dominant role.

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India Needs More Energy for its Development

Climate Friendly InitiativeWide-ranging reforms such as:

Policies adopted by India for sustainable development, such as– Energy and Power sector reforms

• energy efficiency• increasing penetration of cleaner fuels• thrust for renewable energy technologies

Introduction of landmark environmental measures that have targeted - cleansing of rivers, - enhanced forestation,

- installed significant capacity of hydro and renewable energy technologies and - introduced clean coal technologies - cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel have all accelerated the economic growth and lowered the barriers

to efficiency and reduced energy intensity

Decreasing Energy Intensity Behind India’s Sustainable Development

Energy intensity of GDP (kgoe/$ 2000 PPP)

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