Climate Change and Health
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Transcript of Climate Change and Health
Gases How it is generated ? Global warming potential value
Atmospheric lifetime
Carbon dioxide
(CO2)
A naturally occurring gas released as a by-product of fossil fuel combustion, selected industrial processes and changes in the patterns of land-use, particularly deforestation. In terms of gross volume of emissions, it is by far the most important greenhouse gas.
1 200-10,000 years
Methane (CH4)
A gas released in coal mining, landfill operations, livestock raising and natural gas/oil drilling (among other processes) and human waste.
21 (21 times more potent in terms of global warming effect than CO2)
12 years
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
A gas emitted during fertilizer manufacturing and fossil fuel combustion.
310 120 years
Gases How it is generated? Global warming potential value
Atmospheric lifetime
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
A group of gasses emitted in selected manufacturing processes and frequently used in refriger-ation and air conditioning equipment.
HFC-23, HFC-12, HFC-134a and HFC 152a have global warming potential of 11700
260 years
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
Similar to HFCs, PFCs were developed and introduced as an alternative to ozone depleting CFCs and HFCs. They are emitted in a variety of manufacturing processes.
PFCs global warming potential ranges from 6.500 for CF4 to 9,200 for C2F6
45 years
Sulphur hexofluoride (SF)
The most potent greenhouse gas, released in a very limited number of manufacturing processes where it is used as a dielectric fluid.
Global warming potential of SF6 is equal to 23,900. SF6 represent the most dangerous group of anthropogenic-induced greenhouse gas emissions
3,200 years
Examples of greenhouse gases that are affected by human activities
CO2
Carbon dioxide
CH4
MethaneN2O
Nitrous oxide
CFC-11 Chlorofluorocarbon-11
HFC-23 Hydrofluorocarbon-23
CF4
Perfluoromethane
Pre-industrial concentration
~280 ppm
~700 ppb ~270 ppb
Zero Zero 40 ppt
Concentration in 1998
365 ppm 1745 ppb 314 ppb
268 ppt 14 ppt 80 ppt
Rate of concentration change
1.5 ppm per yr
7.0 ppb per yr
0.8 ppb per yr
~1.4 ppt per yr
0.55 ppt per yr
1.0 ppt per yr
Source: IPCC
Rising Impacts of Global Warming
Extinction of more than 40% of known species ; Global economic losses of up to 5% GDP ; Partial melting of Green land and W. Antarctica Ice sheets ; Eventually raising sea-level 1.3-2 feet.
Major changes in natural systems cause predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity, water and food supplies.Widespread coral mortality.Millions more people face flooding risk every year.
Increased risk of extinction for 20-30% of known species.Most corals bleached.Increasing mortality from heat waves, floods and droughts
Decreasing water availability ; Increasing drought in many regions ; Increasing wildfire risk ; Increased flood and storm damage ;Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases
2080s
2050s
2020s
+50c
+40c
+30c
+20c
+10c
2007 Current Warming
Over 1980-1999 Temperature levels
Substantial burden on health services; Global food production decreases; About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost.
F-gases, 1.1%
N2O, 7.9%
CH4 14.3%
CO2 (deforestation,
decay of biomass, etc),
17.3%
CO2 (other), 2.8%
CO2 fossil fuel use, 56.6%
Global anthropogenic greenhousegas emissions in 2004
Who is responsible for global warming?
Developed countries have had a head start on developing countries in the industrialisation process. They have been emitting carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere for years before developing countries, at the time when the harmful effects of these emissions were not known, and hence there were no restrictions on emissions.
This is because of the energy intensive lifestyles of industrialised countries. Many of the uses of energy in the richer countries are for purposes of luxury, and the emissions caused from such uses may be termed luxury emissions.
But the lower per capita emissions of developing countries are because a large number of poor people do not even have access to basic amenities such as electricity. They will need their share of ecological space to increase what could be termed survival emissions. Citizens of richer countries will have to decrease their per capita emissions in order to allow these poor people to increase theirs, and to allow them to improve their living standards.
Pathways by which climate change affects human health
Regional weather changes
• Heatwaves
• Extreme weather
• Temperature
• Precipitation
CLIMATE CHANGE
Microbial contamination
pathways
Transmission dynamics
Agro ecosystems, hydrology
Socioeconomics, demographics
Health effects
Temperature-related illness and death
Extreme weather-related health
effects
Air pollution-related health effects
Water and food-borne diseases
Vector-borne and rodent-borne
diseases
Effects of food and water shortages
Mental, nutritional, infectious and other
health effects
Modulating influences
Overview of the health effects of climate change
Expected impacts are mainly for changes in frequency or severity of familiar health risks
1. Temperature-related illness and death
2. Extreme weather- related health effects
3. Air pollution-related health effects
4. Water and food-borne diseases
5. Vector-borne and rodent- borne diseases
6. Effects of food and water shortages
7. Psycho-social impacts on displaced populations
8. Health impacts from conflicts over access to vital resources
CLIMATECHANGE
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Health Burdens
• Following diseases will rise– Vector borne diseases– Diarrhoea– Malnutrition– Respiratory diseases– Cardiovascular disease
• Stress related problems also will rise
Year-wise ADD cases (1996-2005)
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
No
. o
f C
as
es
Year-wise Cholera cases (1996-2005)
4425
3173
35543839 3879
4178
3455
2893
4728
3154
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
No
. o
f C
as
es
Year-wise Viral Hepatitis cases (1996-2005)
131808 133594
113527
131798
152713146047
135859
151287
203939
134938
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
No
. o
f C
ases
Year-wise Entric Fever cases (1996-2005)
279438 269455
318510
379304
463578482863 488033
596684
658301
512557
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
No
. o
f C
ases
Endemic districts - 180 in 18 States/UTs)Endemic districts - 180 in 18 States/UTs)
Population: 450 million Population: 450 million
2006: 12317 Cases , 184 Deaths2006: 12317 Cases , 184 Deaths
Dengue Endemicity MapDengue Endemicity Mapin Indiain India
0
5000
10000
15000
20000Cases
0100200300400500600
Deaths
cases deaths
cases 16517 1177 707 944 650 3306 1926 12754 4153 11928 12317
deaths 545 36 18 17 7 53 33 215 45 156 184
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2005 Cases: 11985, Deaths : 157
2006 Cases : 12317, Deaths : 184
Dengue/Dengue Haemaorrhagic Fever (DHF) Cases and Deaths in India
CHIKUNGUNYA FEVER2006
Affected districts: 188, Affected districts: 188,
Suspected Cases 1.39 millionSuspected Cases 1.39 million
Confirmed Cases 1985 out of 15504 tested (12.8%)Confirmed Cases 1985 out of 15504 tested (12.8%)
Current Burden of Climate-Sensitive Health Outcomes
• Temperature > 500 C in Western India in 1994.• Malaria epidemic in Surat following heavy rainfall in
same year.• Mumbai in Maharashtra experienced 944 mms of
rainfall on July 26 and 27,2005; > 1,000 deaths• In 2006, Surat (Gujarat), Barmer ( Rajasthan) and even
Srinagar experienced serious floods during monsoon. • Consecutive droughts between 2000 and 2002 in Orissa
affected 11 million people• Deaths due to heatstroke & cold reported every year
ROURK ELA
MANDL A
CHENN AI
CARNIC OBAR
SONAP UR
KHEDA
HARDW AR HALDW ANI
SHAHJA HANPUR
ALLAHA BAD
T W O p e n fo r m o nths
4-6
7-9
10-12
N.A
CARNIC OBAR
4-6
7-9
10-12
N.A
T W O p e n fo r m o nths
(a) (b)
Transmission windows of malaria in different states of India (a) in 2000 and (b) in 2080
Health: An Overview
Malaria may penetrate elevations above 1800 meters and some coastal areas.
10% more states may offer climatic opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year with respect to the year 2000
Per-capita water availability in India
Aggregate annual utilizable water in India: 1100 billion Cu.m
Estimated water demand in India in 2025: 1013 billion Cu. m
1947 5150 Cu.m
2000 2200 Cu.m
2017 1600 Cu.m
Prevention of Atmospheric Pollution and Global Warming
1 person produces 1 cubic foot biogas per day
Hence 6 billion people produce 6 billion cubic feet biogas per day.In biogas, the methane content is 65%
So from 6 billion people, 3.9 billion cubic feet methane is produced per day
Hence emission of methane into the atmosphere is 40.67 billion cubic metres per year.
In a septic tank system gas pipe is required to permit outflow of gases produced into the atmosphere.
But in Sulabh two-pit, pour-flush, compost toilets, vent pipes are not needed and gases are absorbed in the leach-pits into the soil.
In Sulabh public toilet complexes with attached biogas digesters, the gases are burnt when put to different uses like cooking, warming oneself, lighting mantle lamps, etc.
Thus, Sulabh technologies prevent emission of methane into the atmosphere and reduce global warming and improve climate change.
Prevention of Atmospheric Pollution and Global Warming
Sulabh Thermophilic Aerobic Composting (STAC) Sulabh Thermophilic Aerobic Composting (STAC) Technology for Solid Waste ManagementTechnology for Solid Waste Management
•A plant of GI sheet having double wall filled with glass wool, partitioned with perforated sheet into three chambers.
•Requires 8 – 10 days to make compost from any biodegradable waste.
•No manual handling.
•It functions at low temperature alsoMore suitable for housing colonies, hostels, hilly areas. 21
22
The benefits of this technology :The benefits of this technology :
• Organic solid waste can be efficiently converted into manure and soil conditioner, giving economic return.
• It can control diseases transmitted from waste; as at high temperature pathogens are eliminated from it.
•Due to a reduction in volume, cartage costs of waste to disposal sites or for land filling will be greatly reduced.
• Spread of weeds from waste will also be controlled.
contd…
STAC– Maklorganj (Dharmshala, Himachal Pradesh) Project
23
Vermi-Composting
24
• It is the end product of the breakdown of organic matter by some species of earthworm.
• Vermi-compost is a nutrient rich natural fertilizer and soil conditioner.
• The process of producing vermi-compost is called vermi-composting.
25
Benefits of Composting
• Direct employment in composting
• Economic gain through sale of compost & earth-worms
• Reduce dependency on chemical fertilizer for agriculture purpose
• Reduce the expenditure of Municipal body on transportation of Solid Wastes.
• Reduce the need for new landfill site
• Prevention of pollution caused by Solid waste
• Reduce green house gas.
Compost ready to use
Calculated per year water saved if Sulabh two-pit system is adapted
Total Number of toilet users world wide = 6 billion
Water used in Sulabh 2 Pit toilet = 2 litres
If flush twice a day water required = 4 litres
Water used for septic tank/conventional sewarge per flush = 10 litres
If flush twice a day water used = 20 litres
Water saved daily = 16 litreper day per person
Total water saved globally = 6*16
= 96 billion litres/day
If left out 2.6 billion people go for Sulabh toilets water saved = 2.6*16
= 4.16 billion litres/day
Water saved by existing 1.2 million Sulabh toilets average use 7 persons twice a day
= 7*2* 16*1.2
= 268.8 million litres/day
Cost of Manure from existing Sulabh two-pit toilet in one year
No. of toilets constructed by Sulabh ( Twin-pit) = 1.2 millionsAverage family members = 7Manure obtained from a person in a year = 40 kgCost of manure = Rs. 5 per kgHence, the Cost of Manure by Sulabh twin-pit toilet is = 1,20,000*7*40*5 = Rs. 1,680 million = Rs. 1,680 million per year
Cost of manure from toilets to be constructed by Sulabh twin-pit toilet for 2.6 billion people per year 1 person produces 40 kg manure in 1 year
2.6 billion persons produce = 40* 2.6 billion Kg manure = 104 billion Kg. manureCost of manure (in 1 year)Cost of 1 Kg of manure is Rs. 5.00Cost of 104 billion kg manure = Rs. 5*104 billion = Rs. 520 billion
Cost recovered from 1,000 user’s biogas plant, in the form of energy per year
One person produce = 1 cft of biogas per day So, from a Public toilet of 1,000 users we get= 1000 cft of biogas
(30cum)30 cum of Biogas = 4.6 gallons of diesel1 gallon = 4.55 litres4.6 gallons of diesel = 4.6 *4.55 litres of diesel = 21 litresSo, in a day we get 21 litres of dieselHence, total diesel obtained in a year= 21*365 = 7,665 litres/yearCost of diesel @ Rs. 32/- = 7,665*32 = Rs. 2,45,280 per year for one biogas plant of 1000
users
Contribution of Sulabh to save Global WarmingNo. of Two-pit constructed by Sulabh= 1.2 millionAv. users of Toilet per day= 7So, total Nos. of users = (1.2*7) million =84. million1 person produced 1 cft biogas per daySo, 8.4 million persons produced =(1*8.4) million biogas per day = 8.4 million cft biogas = 240000 cum.So, total biogas absorbed in soil = 0.24 million cum Biogas per dayIn one yearTotal biogas absorbed in soil in = (0.24*365) million cum = 87.6 million cumIf 700 million people used Sulabh two-pit system then total biogas produced in 1 day
= 700 million* 1 cft = 700 million cft = 20 million cumSo, total biogas can be absorbed in soil in one year = 20 million cum * 365( Sulabh Two-pit system) 7300 million cum190 Biogas plant constructed by SulabhAv. Biogas production per plant/day = 45 cumSo, total biogas production per year = (190*45) cum = 8850 cumHence, biogas produced in a year = 8850 cum *365 = 3120750 cum = 3.1 million
cumTotal gas saved by Sulabh technology = (87.6+3.1) = 90.7 million cum
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
The CDM defined in Article 12 of the Protocol, allows a country with an emission-reduction or emission-limitation commitment under the Kyoto Protocol (Annex B Party) to implement emission-reduction project in developing countries. Such parties can earn saleable certified emission reduction (CER) credits, each equivalent to one ton of CO2, which can be counted towards meeting Kyoto targets.
The mechanism is seen by many as a trailblazer. It is the first global, environmental investment and credit scheme of its kind, providing a standardized emissions offset instrument, CERs. The mechanism stimulates sustainable development and emission reductions, while giving industrialized countries some flexibility in how they meet their emission reduction or limitation targets.
Clean Development Mechanism
Clean Development Mechanism is designed to stimulate emission reductions in the developing countries, while also promoting sustainable development. The projects must qualify through a rigorous and public registration and issuance process. Approval is given by the Designated National Authorities.
The mechanism is overseen by the CDM Executive Board, answerable ultimately to the countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
Since 2006, the mechanism has already registered more than 1000 projects and is anticipated to produce CERs amounting to more than 2.7 billion tons of CO2 equivalent by 2008-2012.
CDM- How it works?The primary purpose of CDM mechanism is to allow industrialised countries to buy cheap reductions from developing countries.
Let us say that India decided to invest in a new power station, and has decided on a particular technology at the cost of X crore. An entity from an industrialised country (which could even be a company) offers to provide India with slightly better technology, which costs more (say Y crore), but will result in lower emissions.The industrialised country will only pay the incremental cost of the project-viz. Y minus X. In return, the ‘investing’ country will get ‘certified emission reductions’ (CERs), or credits, which it can use to meet its Kyoto commitments.
This is a very good deal indeed- but for the investing country. Not only do they sell developing countries their technology, but they also meet their Kyoto commitments without lifting a finger to reduce their domestic emissions. Countries like the US can continue to pollute at home, so long as it makes the reductions elsewhere.
Do developing countries like India stand to gain from the CDM?
Though the mechanism recognises and the right of developed countries to emit more GHGs, and hence their right to a higher standard of living than people in poor countries, the developing countries, like India, get benefited by this mechanism as well.
Apart from industries and transportation the major sources of GHGs emission in India are paddy fields, enteric fermentation from cattle and buffaloes and municipal solid waste.
The project can be executed using a Public-Private Partnership approach in which both the parties can invest and share the benefits. Investment and operating cost is recovered through sale of CERs, gaining annual CER for the country.
CDM Projects in India
India’s CDM potential represents a significant component of the golbal CDM market. As on 17 March 2009, out of 1455 projects registered with CDM Executive Board, 398 are from India and 453 are from China. The National CDM Authority in India has accorded Host Country Approval to 1226 projects costing Rs.151,397 crores. These projects are in the sectors of energy efficiency, fuel swithing, industrial processes, municipal solid waste and energy efficiency. If all of them get registered with CDM Executive Board, they have a potential to generate 573 million Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) by 2012. At a conservative estimate of US$10 per CER, this means a revenue of US$5.73 billion to the country.
3-truths: Climate change political and economic challenge
1. Is related to economic growth. No one has built a low carbon economy (as yet)
2. Is about sharing growth between nations and between people. The rich must reduce so that the poor can grow. Create ecological space.
3. Is about cooperation. If the rich emitted yesterday, the emerging rich world will do today. Cooperation demands equity and fairness. It is a pre-requisite for an effective climate agreement.
ConclusionsConclusions• Climate change is real, accelerating and it threatens all of us• Diverse, global and probably irreversible over human time
scales• Health impacts are potentially huge and threaten public
health security• The risks are inequitable; GHG are emitted by developed
countries but the health risks are concentrated in poor countries which have contributed least. These countries will suffer earliest and most.
• What we do now may not have major impact in next 40-50 years. But our efforts in next 10-20 years can have a profound effect on climate in second half of century
• A gift to the next generations