Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events in India

Akhilesh Gupta Adviser & Head

Climate Change Programme Department of Science & Technology

Government of India Email: akhilesh.g@nic.in

K.J. Ramesh

Director General, India Meteorological Department

Ministry of Earth Sciences New Delhi

Email: kj.ramesh@nic.in

Global mean temperature

change

Each of the past 3 decades has been the warmest since 1850

Observed Trend in Ocean Warming

More than 90% of the energy accumulating in the climate system between 1971 and 2010 has accumulated in the ocean

Land temperatures remain at historic highs while ocean temperatures continue to climb

Global climate change Frequency of Global Natural Disasters during 1970-2014

Number of Global Natural Disasters and Reported Deaths during 1900-2011

Number of Natural Disasters Continent-wise during 1970-2014

All-India Temperature Time Series

Source: India Meteorological Department, National Climate Centre, Pune

INTER-ANNUAL MONSOON

RAINFALL VARIABILITY

All India Rainfall : Decreasing Trend since 1941

TREND OF RAINFALL DURING SW MONSOON AND ANNUAL (mm of rainfall in 100 years)

Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Rainfall

Low & Moderate events

Heavy events (>10cm)

Low and Moderate events

V. Heavy events (>15cm)

Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events over India in a Warming Environment

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

100

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

200

400

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1000

1200

1400

1600

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

500

n

Years

Winter

n

Years

Pre-Monsoon

n

Years

Monsoon

n

Years

Post-Monsoon

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1500

2000

2500

n

Years

Annual

Number of long spell rain events. Continuous rainfall for ≥4 days over all India in

different seasons. The red line is linear trend line.

The number of long spell rainfall events shows decreasing trend in monsoon season in last 54 years. This suggests that planetary scale motions, may be southwest monsoon over the country is weakening.

Dash et al. 2009 J. Geophys. Res. Vol. 114

Winter Pre-Monsoon Monsoon

Post-Monsoon Annual

y = -0.0183x + 6.3291

R2 = 0.1031

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1891

1896

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

Y E A R S

FR

EQ

UE

NC

YDecreasing Frequency of Total Number of

Cyclonic Storms over India during 1891-2006

Frequencies of Monsoon Cyclonic Disturbances along with their trends over North Indian Ocean

(1890-1999)

Increasing Frequency of Total Number of Low

Pressure Areas over India during past 123 years

(1888-2009)

Total Number of Flood Events in India (1980-2006)

Decreasing

Trend in

Total Flood

Events

during past

25 years

Number of Flash Flood Events in India (1980-2006)

Increasing

Trend in

Flash Flood

Events

during past

25 years

P. Rohini, M. Rajeevan & A. K. Srivastava, 2016

Trend in Frequency and Duration of

Heat Waves in India (1966-2014)

2015 Heat Wave over East Coast of India

Observed Heat Index

Predicted Heat Index

IC: 0516

Prediction of Heat Waves

Courtesy: IITM Pune

Summary of Recent Observed Trend of Extreme Events over India

Monsoon Rainfall

Monsoon Rainfall variability

Light/Moderate Rainfall

Heavy/Very Heavy Rainfall

Long Spell of Rainfall

Short Spell of Rainfall

Drought

Summary of Recent Observed Trend of Extreme Events over India

Cyclonic Storms

Cyclonic Disturbances

Low Pressure Areas

Large Scale Floods

Flash Floods

Heat Waves

Climate Projections Av. Surface temperature: Increase by 2 - 4°C during 2050s

Monsoon Rainfall: Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS)

: Large changes during non-monsoon

months

No. of rainy days: set to decrease by

more than 15 days

Intensity of rains : to increase

by 1-4 mm/day

Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic

storms

Prediction Capability of Extreme Weather Events in India:

Some Recent Developments

Resolution and Physical Processes in Numerical Weather Prediction Models improved significantly

India acquired High Performance Computing resources (~1PF)

Considerable improvement in prediction accuracy of extreme events – Lead time for forecasting extended

Cyclone Roanu 17-23 May 2016

IC: 11 May

OBS

MME

Track Prediction for Cyclone Roanu (~ 15 days in advance)

Unusual Track of Cyclone “Kyant” – 21-28 Oct, 2016

OBSERVED TRACK FOR CYCLONIC STORM “KYANT” OVER BAY OF BENGAL DURING 21-28

OCTOBER 2016

Cyclone Track Forecast Errors (2003-15)

Steps required to meet the Challenges emerging out of

Extreme Events Warning Systems needed for all Extreme

events Multi-Hazard Integrated Decision Support System Need for greater synergy between State and Central government agencies Wider Outreach needed Need for mainstreaming disaster risk into development process

Multi-layered Data Base Management and Modeling

Model to analyze and

predict impact of events to desired level

Data level Country State District Taluk Block Village

Multiple Scenario based on

data level & event

Integrated Disaster Management Concept

Disaster Observation &

Monitoring

Prediction

Prediction

models

Advanced & Dense

Observational Network

High resolution

Data assimilation

High speed computer

Impact Assessment Village level data bank

Data type

Geographic

Demographic

Geo-technical

Geological

Topographical

Meteorological

Seismological

Decision Support System

Decision type

Sociological

Geo-political

Economical

Administrative

Security

Law & Order Dissemination of

Early Warnings

Communication system

Wide Area network-upto village level

Disaster proof-satellite based-2 way

Location specific

administrative

Actions

Feedback

State Gov

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S&T Capacity Building in Climate Change in India:

DST’s initiative

Akhilesh Gupta Adviser & Head

Climate Change Programme Department of Science & Technology

Government of India Email: akhilesh.g@nic.in

Strengths: 3000 Scientists 400 scientists with International

recognition 450 Institutions teaching/doing Research 100 years of systematic Climate Data

Weaknesses:

Fragmented Research efforts Weak linkage between Science and Policy Limited linkage with the Society Absence of partnership with private sector

Status of S&T Capacity in Climate Science in India

Eight National Missions on Climate Change

National Solar Mission National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency National Mission on Sustainable Habitat National Water Mission National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan

Eco-system National Mission for a Green India National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for

Climate Change Both the missions call for mission mode actions to build, strengthen and sustain national S&T capacities

Existing Programmes of Climate Change Programme, DST

4 Centres of Excellence, one each at Divecha Centre for CC, IISc, Bangalore; IIT Bombay; IIT Madras and ICRISAT, Hyderabad

12 major R&D Programmes 2 National Network Programmes one each on climate Modeling and

Climate Change & Human Health 8 Global Technology Watch Groups (GTWGs) in the areas of

Renewable Energy Technology, Advance Coal Technology, Enhanced Energy Efficiency, Green Forest, Sustainable Habitat, Water, Sustainable Agriculture and Manufacturing

Indo-Swiss Capacity Building Programme in glaciology Inter-University Consortium on Himalayan Cryosphere and Climate

Change 6 Thematic Task Forces 18 State CC Centres Indo-US Fulbright-Kalam Doctoral and Post-Doctoral Fellowships in

Climate Change

New Programmes under CCP-DST Launched Recently

Centres of Excellence (4) Major R&D Programmes (8) Human Capacity Building Programmes (7) Network Programme on CC & Human Health (19) Network Progrmme on Climate Modeling (13) Network Programme on CC & Agriculture (49) Network Programme on CC & Coastal Vulnerability

(10) State CC Centres (3) – Arunachal Pradesh,

Maharashtra and Orissa Indo-US Fulbright-Kalam Fellowships (6 annually) Indo-Swiss Joint Research Programme (2 Networks) National and International Professor Chairs (50)

Proposed Centres of Excellence and Major R&D

Programmes SN CoE’s location

1 IIT Kharagpur

2 BHU, Varanasi

3 IIT Delhi

4 National Institute of Malaria Research

SN MRDP’s location

1 ISSER, Pune

2 CUSAT, Kochi

3 NBRI, Lucknow

4 IISc Bangalore

5 Andhra Univ

6 IIT Guwahati

7 IIT Bhubaneshwar

8 ISSER Mohali

Summary of Programmes of CCP-DST

Centres of Excellence

Major R&D Programmes

Network Programmes

Global Technology Watch Groups

Thematic Task Forces

State CC Centres

Human Cap. Build. Programme

10 CoEs – 8 institutions- 85 scientists

20 MRDPs –20 institutions-95 scientists

6 Network programmes -90 projects 62 institutions- 250 scientists

8 GTWGs–10 institutions –27 scientists

6 TFs – 27 institutions – 82 scientists

21 SCCCs –21 institutions–42 scientists

6 HCBPs – 6 institutions – 21 scientists

Inter-University Consortium

4 institutions – 14 scientists

164 programs-158 institutions-616 scientists

Locations of DST-CCP Programmes (Existing + New)

Total No of programmes/

projects: 164 Total no of

institutions: 158 Total no of

scientists: 616

AP Mitra Climate Change National and International

Professor Chairs

Total 50 such chairs will be positioned in next 5 years in key Indian institutions pursuing research in climate science, adaptation and mitigation.

Out of these 50, 35 will be for National Professor chairs and remaining 15 for International chairs.

Eligibility for Professor Chairs Open to distinguished scientists/ academicians/

researchers in India/abroad including people from public service, government and social organizations Merit will be judged based on academic

credentials of the candidate The candidate must fulfill certain essential

criteria (qualification/experience) The appointment shall be on contract basis for

a period of 3 years extendable upto 5 years after a rigorous review process. The candidate should preferably be below 70

years at the time of appointment.

New Programmes in Offing

Collaborative Programmes with ICIMOD – Himalayan University Consortium Fellowship programme Human Capacity Building Programmes National & Regional workshops Long term Research programme

Institutional Capacity Building programme for the Indian Himalayan region – Centres of Excellence (5) Major R&D Programmes (10-15) Human Capacity Building Programmes (10)

Young Scientist Mentoring & Leadership Programme

The programmes aims at developing leadership in climate research in India

Mapping of young and bright climate scientists below 35 years

Annually 15 such scientists will be selected based on their credentials as evident from their academic qualification and research contribution

They will undergo a Mentoring and training programme guided by a group of internationally acclaimed climate scientists from India & abroad

5 of them will be selected to receive a grant of Rs 3 Cr for 3 years to undertake an independent research as PI.

The grant will also cover support for domestic and international travel

Concluding Remarks India has a strong climate change research

base in terms of number of quality researchers, data and infrastructure

The Country is witnessing emergence of a large number of research institutions (mostly extra-mural) in climate science areas

Climate Change Programme (CCP) DST has emerged as the largest source of extra-mural funding (nearly 60% of total) in climate change research in the country

CCP aims to build, strengthen and sustain S&T Capacity in the country in climate change research.

Over 600 scientists are contributing to CCP programmes today. We aim to cover nearly 2000 scientists in next 5-8 years

CCP has outlined a long term strategy to focus on Excellence, Expansion and Equity

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Thanks !!