Climate Change and Energy
description
Transcript of Climate Change and Energy
July 23, 2009
Climate Change and Energy
National and Regional Perspective
Ken Mitchell, Ph.D.Energy and Climate Change CoordinatorU.S. EPA; Atlanta, Georgia
Global Climate Change
Some Key Messages: Human activities have led to large increases
in heat-trapping gases over the past century Global average temperature and sea level
have increased, and precipitation patterns have changed
The global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases
Human “fingerprints” also have been identified in many other aspects of the climate system, including changes in ocean heat content, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and Arctic sea ice
Global temperatures are projected to continue to rise over this century; by how much and for how long depends on a number of factors, including the amount of heat-trapping gas emissions and how sensitive the climate is to those emissions
US GCRP, 2009
Climate Change and Energy
An EPA Priority Reducing greenhouse gases is a top priority
for Administrator Jackson
Some key actions taken: Endangerment Finding Mandatory Reporting Renewable Fuels Standard
Proposed Endangerment Finding
Current and projected concentrations of the mix of key greenhouse in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations
carbon dioxide (CO2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2O) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) perfluorocarbons (PFCs) sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)
Proposed Endangerment Finding
“Cause or contribute finding” The combined emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and
HFCs from new motor vehicles and motor vehicle engines contribute to the atmospheric concentrations of these key greenhouse gases and hence to the threat of climate change
Federal Register notice 4/24/09
Comment period closed 6/23/09
Mandatory Reporting of GHGs
Required by FY08 omnibus appropriations legislation
Federal Register Notice 4/10/09
Comment Period Closed 6/09/09
Transportation28%
Industry19%
Agriculture7%
Commercial6%
Residential5%
Electricity Generation
34%
Inventory of U.S. GHG Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007http://epa.gov/climatechange/
Covered Chemicals
Anthropogenic GHG emissions covered under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other fluorinated gases
carbon dioxide (CO2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2O) hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) perfluorocarbons (PFC) sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) hydrofluorinated ethers (HFE)
Expressed in metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (mtCO2e)
Who Reports?
Primarily facility, with limited exceptions (e.g., fuel importers, vehicle and engine manufacturers)
Sector Reporters
Electricity Generation Power plants
Transportation Vehicle and Engine Manufacturers
Industrial All large industrial emitters, including those in the following industries:
Metals Iron and Steel, Aluminum, Magnesium, Ferroalloy, Zinc, and Lead
Minerals Cement, Lime, Glass, Silicon Carbide, Pulp and Paper
Chemicals
HCFC-22, Ammonia, Nitric Acid, Adipic Acid, SF6 from Electrical Equipment, Hydrogen, Petrochemicals, Titanium Dioxide, Soda Ash, Phosphoric Acid, Electronics, Titanium Dioxide
Oil and Gas Components of oil and gas systems, Underground coal mining
Other Landfills, Wastewater Treatment, Ethanol, Food Processing
Agriculture Manure Management
Upstream Suppliers*
Petroleum Refineries, Gas Processors, Natural Gas Distribution Companies, Coal Mines, Importers/Exporters, Industrial Gases (e.g., HFCs, N2O, PFCs, CO2)
*Some upstream suppliers will also be reporting their direct emissions (e.g., refineries)
Thresholds, Methods, and Frequency
Threshold Capacity-based threshold, where appropriate and feasible;
Emissions-based threshold of 25,000 metric tons of CO2e/yr for other sources
Methods Direct measurement, where available, and facility-specific
calculation for other sources EPA direct reporting system for fuel quantity and quality
information Frequency
Annually for New Reporters (facilities reporting quarterly for existing mandatory programs continue quarterly reports)
First reports submitted to EPA March 31, 2011 for CY2010 Engine manufacturers report for model year 2011
Proposed Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2)
Proposed revision to current RFS (RFS1) as required by the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA)
Significant increase in renewables to displace petroleum consumption
Lifecycle analysis for GHGs
www.epa.gov/OMS/RENEWABLEFUELS
Volume Changes Over Time
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Year
Bil
lio
n G
allo
ns
Advanced Biofuel: Unspecified
Advanced Biofuel: Biomass-Based Diesel
Advanced Biofuel: Cellulosic Biofuel
Conventional Biofuel
Greenhouse Gas Reduction Thresholds
Required GHG reduction thresholds for the various categories of fuels
Evaluated over the full lifecycle
Compared to the lifecycle emissions of 2005 petroleum baseline fuels
Lifecycle GHG Thresholds Specified in EISA
(percent reduction from 2005 baseline)
Renewable fuela 20%
Advanced biofuel *50%
Biomass-based diesel 50%
Cellulosic biofuel 60%
a The 20% criterion generally applies to renewable fuel from new facilities that commenced construction after December 19, 2007. * EPA is proposing to exercise the 10% adjustment allowance provided for in EISA for the advanced biofuels threshold to as low as 40%
Preliminary Emissions Impacts
Pollutant Change in total U.S. inventory1 in 2022 in comparison to RFS1 mandate
NOx 2.5 to 3.0%
HC 0.6%
PM10 1.0%
PM2.5 0.3%
CO -3.1 to -5.8%
Ethanol 29 to 33%
Acetaldehyde 28 to 38%
Benzene -1.5 to -3.5%
GHG -150 to -160 million tons per year on average (over 30 to 100 years respectively)
1 Includes all upstream and downstream emissions
What about Region 4?
Some key facts about Region 4….
Home to 20% of the population (with a large EJ component)
We generated about 24% of electricity in U.S. (burning coal is a primary fuel source) in 2007
Responsible for about 24% of U.S. CO2 emissions (from power production) in 2007
We use more fuel and drive more miles than any other Region
Energy Information AdministrationFederal Highways AdministrationU.S. Census Bureau
VMT by region
0100,000
200,000300,000400,000500,000
600,000700,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
VMT
(mill
ions
)
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
R7
R8
R9
R10
2007 CO2 Emission from Power Generation in R4 States
Source: Energy Information Administration
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN
To
ns
20%
2007 Electricity Generation (Electric Power Industry) in R4 States
Source: Energy Information Administration
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
AL FL GA KY MS NC SC TN
Me
ga
wa
tts
23%
Energy Efficiency
Reduce energy use in buildings Energy Star Green Buildings
Connection to water WaterSense Energy efficient infrastructure
Connection to materials management WasteWise
Green remediation opportunities
Promote more fuel efficient vehicles/fuels, better transit options, and smart planning and growth
BioEnergy
Southeast could dominate this industry
Some activities to promote bioenergy production and use in the SE
Southeastern Diesel Collaborative
Biodiesel production in communities and technical training for schools
Agriculture and other Waste-to-Energy projects
Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts
Many concerns for the Southeast….
Most coastline in the lower 48 states
Large at-risk population Prone to frequent natural
disasters Significant forestry, agriculture,
infrastructure, and ecosystem resources
Adaptation planning underway and transportation will be an important consideration
Ocean surface temperature during the peak hurricane season, August through October, in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. Higher sea surface temperatures in this region of the ocean have been associated with more intense hurricanes. As ocean temperatures continue to increase in the future, it is likely that hurricane rainfall and wind speeds will increase in response to human-caused warming.
US GCRP, 2009
What about air quality?
Potential impact of climate change on: Ozone Particulate
matter Toxics Pollen
Courtesy of Sustaining the Environment and Resources for Canadians
Questions?
Ken Mitchell, Ph.D.
Energy and Climate Change Coordinator
U.S. EPA; Atlanta, Georgia
404-562-9065
www.epa.gov/CLIMATECHANGE
www.epa.gov/CLEANENERGY
www.epa.gov/OMS/RENEWABLEFUELS