Climate Change and Critical Infrastructure Resilience for ... · Climate Change and Critical...

Climate Change and Critical Infrastructure Resilience for Community Functionality

Vilas Mujumdar, P.E., S.E., C. Eng.Distinguished Senior Fellow, Global Resilience Institute,

Northeastern University, Boston, MA

World Engineers Convention (WEC)Melbourne, Australia

Nov. 20 -22, 2019

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Outline of Presentation

1. Natural Hazards2. Climate Change- Global Risks3. Critical Infrastructure Systems 4. Community response as an integrated system5. Convergence6. Interdependency7. Resiliency – definition, measures8. Conclusions

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Natural Hazards

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Natural Hazards

▪ Earthquakes - Geologic phenomena

▪ Tsunamis - Geologic phenomena - cascading

▪ Landslides – Geologic phenomena – cascading !

▪ Volcanic Eruptions – Geologic phenomena

▪ Severe Wind Storms – Weather related

▪ Floods – Weather /other causes

▪ Droughts – Weather related

▪ Fires /Wildfires – accidental/manmade/resulting from other hazards


Climate Change impacts many hazards listed

Natural Hazards Data

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▪ Disasters have killed more than a million people, affected 4.4 billion people and cost the global economy more than 2 trillion dollars (1994 – 2014).

▪ With urbanization increasing rapidly, more people, often in the poorest countries, are being exposed to disaster risk.

▪ Climate change threatens to push that risk out of control, as extreme and more variable weather becomes more common (UNDP-2015)

- Hurricanes - Harvey, Irma, Maria, Two significant EQs in Mexico – 2017 -

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Natural Hazards Impact

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Technical

Systems

Economic

Systems

Social

Systems

F

U

N

C

T

I

O

N

A

L

I

T

Y

C

O

M

M

U

N

I

T

Y

V

U

L

N

E

R

A

B

I

L

I

T

y

C

O

M

M

U

N

I

T

Y

C

O

M

P

O

S

I

T

I

O

N

Short

term

Long

term

Business

disruptions

Restore &

retrofit

Buildings

Infrastructure

Healthcare

Emergency

services

Business

closures &

relocation

Economic

recovery

Revision of

codes &

Regulations

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Post Hazard Impact

O

R

G

A

N

I

Z

A

T

I

O

N

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L

S

Y

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T

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Pre Hazard Condition Hazard Event

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Climate Change - Global Urban Risks

World bank- Urban Impact - Climate Change

1. Temperature Rise

2. Storms & Precipitation

3. Sea Level rise


Primary effects

Climate Change - Global Urban Risks

1. Temperature Rise▪ For every 1 degree warming – 7% more population

experiences 20% decrease in water availability▪ Health impacts –weather related mortality, air quality,▪ Demand for more cooling▪ Forest fires increase

2. Storms and Precipitation▪ Water damage - acidification of waters▪ Changes in water supply – potential for water wars▪ Currently 35% of population exposed to water shortage▪ Wind generated damage to land, and infrastructure

3.Sea Level rise▪ Coastal flooding - loss of land, property damage▪ Costs to protect coastal communities▪ Loss of species and coastal habitats, and marine life▪ Shifting of ecological zones


Impact of each will vary depending on:1. Location – Urban, rural,

developing – developed country, coastal, inland, mountain region

2. Adaptive Capacity-economy, institutions, governance, social capital, social cohesion

3. Mitigation Efforts-investments in infrastructure, maintenance, readiness

Global Urbanization Focus – Climate Change

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▪ By 2050, urban population will increase by 2.5 B people▪ 90% of this increase will occur in Asia and Africa▪ Only 3 countries- India, China , and Nigeria will account for 35 % of the

urban population increase,▪ India will have 416 M in urban areas, China - 255 M , and Nigeria – 189 M▪ By 2030, the world is projected to have 43 megacities with more than 10

million inhabitants, most of them in developing regions.

Reasons for Focus on Urban Areas

Many countries will face challenges in meeting the needs of their growing urban populations, including for housing, transportation, energy systems and other infrastructure, as well as for employment and basic services such as education and health care.

Source- UN


Impacts of Climate change - US

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Impacts vary depending on geophysical risk exposure, existing adaptive capacity and resilience, and the level of regional economic development


Impacts of Climate change - US

Effective policies needed at all levels to assess infrastructures capacity for current risks and resilience to future

climate changes.

▪ Impacts vary across the states depending on geophysical risk exposure, existing adaptive capacity and resilience, and the level of regional economic development

▪ Will also affect the environmental and social systems and their interactions with the infrastructure systems

It is important of act in an integrated, cross-sector way to reduce risks and develop

resilience.

▪ Poorest 1/3rd US counties sustain greater economic hardship from Hurricanes, temp. rise and sea-level rise

▪ By 2050, in San Francisco – 11- in sea-level rise, in addition to 100 YR storm surge and wave-run-up

▪ Impact on infrastructure systems▪ Saltwater intrusion causing corrosion


UN - Sustainable Goal – Climate Change

“Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts” - UN

▪ All countries are experiencing first-hand, the drastic effects of climate change.

▪ Greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, and are now more than 50 percent higher than their 1990 level.

▪ Global warming is causing long-lasting changes to our climate system, which threatens irreversible consequences if we do not take action now.

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UN-Sustainable Goals

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Build resilient infrastructure, promote sustainable industrialization and foster innovation

Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable

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Impacted Further by Climate Change

Critical Infrastructure Systems

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Critical Civil Infrastructure Systems

Civil infrastructure systems critical for functionality

1. Telecommunications network

2. Electric power systems

3. Natural gas and oil systems

4. Transportation network

5. Water supply

6. Waste water systems


These systems are interdependent & their Operations make them Human - coupled complex systems

Some systems are dynamic and

randomly coupled

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Total Infrastructure as an Asset

To preserve this asset, we need to understand the complex interaction of all components of a system

at local. Regional and international level and engage in integrated approach for solutions

All Infrastructure systems - Transportation networks, Electric Power grids, Water and Wastewater systems, Buildings, and Communication networks are a community Asset and are crucial for functioning of a society

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Climate Change Impacts - Infrastructure


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Community Response-an integrated system-


Community – A Coupled Complex System

Social Systems

Technical Systems Economic Structure

Socio-technical Socio-economic

Decisions

Technical

Organizational Systems

Economic


Social

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Convergence Approach

Convergence is an approach to problem solving that cuts across disciplinary boundaries.

▪ Integrates knowledge, tools, and ways of thinking from life and health sciences, physics, mathematics, computational sciences, engineering disciplines and beyond.

▪ Forms a comprehensive synthetic framework for tackling scientific and societal challenges that exist at the interfaces of multiple fields.

▪ Creates a network of partnerships.▪ Stimulates innovation from basic science discovery to translational

applications.

Convergence: Two or more things coming together, joining or evolving into one

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Provides encouragement for new collaborations between stakeholders and partners from academia, federal laboratories, industry, clinical

settings, and funding agencies

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Why is Convergence needed?

The world faces a complex set of challenges such as:▪Threats to the environment,▪Threats to national security,▪Workforce changes,▪New diseases and health risks,▪A rapidly changing global economy,▪Changing competitive environment.

These Complex Problems need experts from multiple disciplines to collaborate intensely - called “Convergent Engineering.”

Convergent Engineering is the development of transdisciplinary solutions intensely focused on critical global needs, taking advantage of deep collaboration between disciplines and across the world, made possible by new technologies.

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Specific UN Sustainable Development Goals

No. Goal UN- Descriptor Engineering Contribution Convergence

9Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and foster innovation.

• Sustainable and resilient infrastructure

• Sustainable manufacturing

Engineering., urban planning, industry, Govt. etc.

11Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable.

• Restore and improve urban infrastructure

• Develop technologies and processes to ensure safety and security across engineered systems

Industry, Urban planning, consumption economics, data science, etc.

13Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.

• Sustainable energy for all• Make the built environment

resilient to uncertain climate and weather extremes

• Substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Atmospheric sciences, Natural hazards, risk, resilience, Govt. actions, etc.

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(INTER) DEPENDENCY

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Civil Infrastructure Systems

Interdependencies - categorized differently

1. At System design level (some examples)

a. Water system with electrical networkb. Transportation network with electric gridc. Communication network with electric grid

2. At Operational level

a. Hierarchical – within organizationsb. Organizational – between organizationsc. Socio-economic systems


Determine if a system is dependent on another & to what extent!

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Electrical Network System - design Level Interdependency

Electrical Network

Water Systems

Transportation Network

H

M

Communications Network

H

Waste-Water SystemsM

Natural Gas Network

N


0.80- 1.00

0.50- 0.75

0.50- 0.75

0.00

0.80- 1.00

DEPENDENCY

LEVEL

H – HighM – MediumL- LowN - None

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Electrical Network Operational - Level Interdependency

Electrical Network

Transportation Authorities

Water Systems

Hierarchy within Organization

H

L

M

0.85

0.30

0.50


DEPENDENCY

LEVEL

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RESILIENCY

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“The ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from or more successfully adapt to actual or potential adverse events” - NAE

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Functionality

0

100

Time

A

B

C D

E

Measure of Resiliency(Area under ABCDE)

B = Event OccurredE = Full Recovery

T1 T2

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T2 - T1 = Rate of Recovery (Rapidity)


Smaller the area under curve, the greater the resiliency

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Community Resiliency - Components

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Resiliency can be measured by time required to restore :▪ Built environment functionality ▪ Economic activity, and ▪ Services for normal functioning

Quantifying Resiliency in numerical terms is difficult, need both Quantitative and Qualitative approaches


Community Resiliency is composed of built environment, economic system and societal system as components that are interdependent

RC = ∑ RB, RE, RS │ FA

RC = Total Community ResiliencyRB = Resiliency of Built EnvironmentRE = Economic system ResiliencyRS = Societal systems ResiliencyFA = Acceptable Functionality

Community Resiliency -

Community decides acceptable levels of functionality of various systems

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Building infrastructure- Resilience

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▪ Infrastructure’s inability to withstand extreme events due to climate change is because the design is based on the data from historical events. These historical conditions are now routinely exceeded,

▪ Since 1979, Houston alone has experienced three 500-year storms.Particularly, after hurricane Harvey - 2018, basic 100-year flood design parameters are acknowledged as fundamentally flawed,

▪ Climate change will make preparing for future storms much harder,

▪ These events will cause more precipitation, inland flooding, more extreme heat, cold, drought, wildfires, coastal flooding and wind,

Design for climate change

Source- Scientific American-2017

Infrastructure designers and managers must shift from risk-based to resilience-based thinking, so that infrastructure systems can better withstand and bounce

back quickly from these extreme events.

1. The impact of a hazard depends on its frequency, magnitude, duration, and on the pre-existing conditions,

2. Climate change has disrupted our historical data on hazards for probability of occurrence and intensity,

3. Civil infrastructure system is a sub-system in the complex community system,

4. Infrastructure systems are interdependent and connected,5. Community resiliency comprises of resiliencies of built

environment, economic structure, and social institutions,6. Both Qualitative and Quantitative measures are necessary to

determine overall resiliency,

Conclusions

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7. Climate change should be considered in designing infrastructure systems,

8. Infrastructure systems need to be flexible for operational purposes,

9. Public Policy is important for long term investment to create a resilient infrastructure,

10. Incentives need to be created for investment in creating resilience in infrastructure systems,

11. Infrastructure systems must function and meet the need of all community members.

Conclusions

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T H A N K Y O U


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