Climate change and conservation (Lec 24-26)

FYI – Additional Reading

Chapter 10 - Principles of Conservation Biology

Vince (2009) Surviving in a warmer world. New Scientist Vol 201 No. 2697

Parmesan (2006) Annual Review of of Ecology and Systematics 37: 637-669

Summary so far

Atmospheric gases prevent long wave (IR) energy from being dissipated into space

CO2 contributes most to the Earth’s ability to absorb and retain solar energy (i.. it has the strongest radiative forcing)

Data from ice cores show CO2 and global temperatures have risen over the last 100 years

All scenarios developed by the IPCC suggest CO2 levels and global climate change will continue

The IPCC chair suggests we should plan for a 4C warming by 2100

Climate change and conservation (Lec 25)

Predicted Impacts on Biological Systems

Observed Ecological Impacts

Ecosystem feedback loops

Conservation implications

Climate can determine the distribution of species

Changes in temperature or precipitation will change the geographical range of species

How will climate change impact biomes, communities, species?

Predictions

Geographic ranges should move towards the poles show elevational changes

Climate envelope modelling

Current climate + distribution !!“climate envelope”

Predict climate + climate envelope ! Predicted distribution

How will climate change impact biomes, communities, species?

Predictions

BUT Different species in a community

have different needs and tolerances vary in their ability to move

Species differ in their response New communities are created Species abundances change New species invade Some species go extinct

Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Birds

Great Britain - 59 species - northward shift of 19 km in 20yrs

North America - 56 bird species - north ward shift of 46 km in 20 yrs - range is contracting because southern range boundary shifting faster

Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Birds - North America - winter range

Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Mammals

Red fox has expanded into the North

Arctic fox has contracted to Atlantic

Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Butterflies North America and Europe 58 species 2/3 shifted north 100km/decade

Edith’s checkerspot

Observed Ecological Impacts Range shifts Plankton – mesozooplankton in the ne Atlantic

Northwards shifts of 1000km

Observed Ecological Impacts Elevational change

Monteverde National Park, Costa Rica

Lowland birds move into montane cloud forest

Siberia and Canadian Rockies

Treeline movement has been documented

Observed Ecological Impacts Phenological change

Plants Japan- Cherry

- 1400-1900 no change in flowering timing - 1950 on timing has advanced

Europe – Grape harvest - 1500-2000 – timing depends on temp - 2003 earliest harvest ever

Animals US - Frogs- 6 spp 1900-2000

10-13 day advance linked to 1 -2.3C increase

UK Birds 20 spp 1970-1995 9 day advance in laying date

Summary of studies for 944 species (Parmesan and Yohe 2003)

Climate change As predicted Opposite to prediction prediction % %

Earlier timing 87 13

Extension 81 19 of range boundaries polewards

Community change 85 15 Cold adapted species decline Warm adapted species increase

Consequences of range shifts

What happens when your food moves?

Triangle Island BC Sea surface temperature influences availability of the copepod Neocalanus cristatus

Warm-water prey species are smaller and have lower fat content

Less N cristatus ! reduced nestling growth and lower fledgling success

Cassin auklets have declined 2.3%/yr over the last 40 yrs

Consequences of range contractions

What happens when you can’t go up anymore?

8400 landbirds 2.8C increase in temperature – 5% extinct by 2100 6.4C 30% extinct by 2100

Sekercoglu (2008) Cons Bio 22:140-150

Consequences of phenological shifts

What happens if your timing is off?

Colorado Rocky Mountains - 1.4C rise in air temperature 1975- 1999

!!yellow bellied marmots emerge from hibernation 38 days earlier

! American robins arrive 14 days earlier

BUT snowmelt and plant flowering has NOT changed

The gap between arrival/emergence and when food is available has increased this will increase mortality and reduce clutch/litter size

Additional consequences of climate change

Pest species and disease are also moving polewards and upward

Eg Chytrid fungus Cooler days and warmer nights have resulted in favourable conditions at mid-elevation sites Changes in dynamics of the skin fungus is implicated in subsequent extinctions of 74 harlequin frog species

Summary so far

Climate change is unequivocal

Biological impacts are being detected already

Adaptation and mitigation are necessary

Next

Biodiversity/Conservation impacts on climate Conservation implications