Climate Change and Conflict:

How Mediation Can Help Save the Planet

Kenneth Cloke

“’We’ and ‘they’ no longer exist. This planet is just us.

The destruction of one area is the destruction of yourself.

That is the new reality.”

The Dalai Lama

Problems that are Global in Nature

• The size and density of human populations• CO2 and methane emissions that are resulting in global warming• The destructive power and availability of military technology• Species extinctions and loss of tropical rainforest and woodland• Loss of potable water and arable land• Resistance to antibiotics and cost of medical care• Vulnerability to pandemics, natural catastrophes, and severe weather

conditions• Loss of bio-diversity • Unregulated economic transactions • The global impact of local, relatively minor environmental decisions • Nuclear proliferation, willingness to use war and resort to violence • Terrorism and unending cycles of revenge and retaliation• Acceptability of the use of torture and cruelty • Intentional targeting of civilians in warfare• Global financial crisis and unregulated economic transactions• Continuing poverty, social inequality and economic inequity • Destabilization due to political autocracy and dictatorship• Rise in prejudice and intolerance• Genocidal policies and “ethnic cleansing” • Growth of the drug trade, sexual trafficking, and organized crime

12 Sources of Ecological Collapse

1. Deforestation and habitat destruction2. Soil problems (erosion, salinization, and soil fertility

losses)3. Water management problems4. Overhunting5. Overfishing6. Effects of introduced species on native species7. Human population growth8. Increased per-capita impact of people9. Human-caused climate change10. Buildup of toxic chemicals in the environment11. Energy shortages12. Full human utilization of the Earth’s photosynthetic

capacity

[Jared Diamond, Collapse]

Scientific Limits on Growth (1)Climate Change:

• Preindustrial CO2 =280 ppm• Current = 387• Boundary = 350Ocean Acidification:

• Preindustrial Aragonite saturation = 3.44 Omega units• Current = 2.90• Boundary = 2.75• PreindustrialStratospheric Ozone Depletion:

• Preindustrial value=290 Dobson units • Current = 283• Boundary = 276

Nitrogen Removal:• Preindustrial value=0 tons/year nitrogen removal from

atmosphere • Current = 133• Boundary = 39

Scientific Limits on Growth (2)Phosphorous Cycle:

• Preindustrial value=1 ton/year flow into oceans• Current = 10• Boundary = 12Freshwater Use:

• Preindustrial value=415 cubic kilometers/year • Current = 2,600• Boundary = 4,000Land Use:

• Preindustrial value=Negligible conversion to cropland• Current = 11.7%• Boundary = 15%Biodiversity Loss:

• Preindustrial value=0.1 to 1.0 species per year• Current = 100• Boundary = 10

Scientific Limits on Growth (3)Aerosol Loading:

• Preindustrial value=Negligible particulate concentration in atmosphere

• Current = Undetermined• Boundary = UndeterminedChemical Pollution:

• Preindustrial value=Negligible amount emitted to or concentrated in the environment

• Current = Undetermined• Boundary = UndeterminedOthers:

• Unknown

[Boundaries for a Healthy Planet, Report by a world-wide team of

scientific experts, Scientific American, April 2010]

A Diagram of Exponential Change

0 AD 1500 1900 19502010

CO2 and Temperature

1.8

1.4

1.1

0.7

0.4

0

-0.4

-0.7

-1.1

Glo

bal Tem

pera

ture

Change (

deg F

)

Year1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

380

360

340

320

300

280

CO

2 Conce

ntra

tion (p

pm

)

1000 Years of CO2 and Global Temperature Change

Temperature

CO2

Jennifer Allen graphic

Human beings have increased carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere by

more than 37% since the Industrial Revolution. (NOAA 2008)

The most carbon dioxide (385 ppm) in 800,000 years (Prof. Thomas Blunier, Univ. of Copenhagen; Monaco Declaration 2008)

Air Temperature Changes

Global Mean Surface Temperatures

Air and Surface Temperature Combined

Land and Ocean Changes

(BP 1950)

Projected (2100)

Current (2001)

CO

2 C

on

ce

ntr

ati

on

(p

pm

v)

Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in the last 440,000 yrs

Long Range Climate Change History

CO2 and Temperature Correlation

Contributions to Global Warming

Are We Responsible?

What is Responsible for Global Warming?

Ice Core Data Correlations

Range of Possible Increases #2

Future Temperatures to 2090’s

Long Range Projections

Some Predictions of Climate Change• Disappearance of sea ice

• Greater frequency of temperature extremes, including heat waves and cold spells

• Increase in tropical cyclone intensity• Decrease in water supplies in semi-arid areas including the

Mediterranean, western US, Africa and Brazil• Eventual elimination of the Greenland ice sheet, and resulting

rise in sea level of about 7 meters (about 23 feet), or more• Minimum of 20 to 30% of species at risk of extinction if

average global warming exceeds 1.5 to 2.5 degrees C• Heavy rainfall in some areas and drought or far less in others,

including the Monsoon season• Soil degradation, desertification and shift in grain growing

regions• Increasing acidification of the world’s oceans, leading to a

massive die-off of marine life• Significant life threats to at least 20% of the world population,

or about 2 billion people

Changes in Arctic Sea Ice

Changes in Intensity of Rainfall

IPCC (2007)

Regions of disproportionate changes in heavy (95% fractile)and very heavy (99% fractile) precipitation.

Effects on Precipitation

Increasing Droughts (1990 – 2002)

IPCC (2007)

Rising Sea Levels

Early Estimates of Sea Level Rise

New Estimates of Sea-Level Rise

Fresh Water Supplies

Background colour shows mean change in annual runoff (%)between present and 2081-2100 for SRES A1B

IPCC WG-II (2007)

Pressure on Fresh Water Resources

14% of world agricultural area is irrigation

40% of agricultural production comes from irrigated agriculture

80% of freshwater abstraction is used for irrigation

Increasing problems with drying out and pollution of rivers and lakesWater consumption for irrigation

Suitability for Rain-fed Cereals 1961-90

Suitability For Rain-fed Cereals to 2080

Crop Yields and Temperature Change

IPCC WG-II (2007)

Without adaptation

With adaptation

Dry Lands• 10-20% of dry lands are subject to degradation• Dry land populations are among the most

ecologically, socially and politically marginalised populations

Soil Degradation

Erosion

Reduction i soil carbon (humus)

Compaction (especially in subsoil)

Pollution

Salinisation

Desertification

Many of these processesare exacerbated byclimate change

Scientific Results and Observations (1)

• Global-average surface temperature increased by about 0.6 ºC over 20th century

• 1990s warmest decade and 1998 warmest year in last 1000 years in Northern Hemisphere

• Over last 50 years night-time minimum temperatures increased by about 0.2 ºC per decade

• 10% reduction in snow cover ice since late 1960s

• Reduction of about two weeks in annual duration of lake and river ice over 20th century

• Widespread retreat of mountain glaciers during 20th century

Scientific Results and Observations (2)

• Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent decreased by 10-15% since 1950s

• 40% decline in late summer Arctic sea-ice thickness in recent decades

• Global-average sea level has increased by 10-20 cm during 20th century

• 0.5-1% per decade increase in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude precipitation during 20th century

• 2-4% increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events in Northern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes over latter half of 20th century

Increases Under All Scenarios

• Global-average surface temperature projected to increase by 1.4 ºC to 5.8 ºC by 2100• Rate of warming likely unprecedented in at least the last 10,000 years• Land areas will warm more than the global average• Global average precipitation will increase over the 21st century• Very likely to be more intense precipitation events• Snow cover and sea-ice projected to decrease further• Glaciers and icecaps projected to continue widespread retreat• Global mean sea-level projected to increase by 9 cm to 88 cm by 2100

Geo-Engineering Options

Effectiveness

Cost

Risk

Low Effectiveness High Cost

High Effectiveness Low Cost

Land-based reflectors (urban)

Land-based reflectors (desert)

Space-based reflectors

CO2 Capture(artificial trees)

Stratospheric Sunshade

Cloud seeding

Ocean fertilizationForestation

How Mediators Can Help Save the Planet (1)

• The problems we now face, of which climate change is only one, can no longer be solved locally, or even by a consortium of the largest nation-states.

• There are no international organizations, including the United Nations, that are presently capable of solving them.

• None of these problems can be solved through force or litigation.

• Bitter conflicts and diverse opinions are widespread between nations, political groups and environmental organizations over whether these problems actually exist, who is responsible for them, and how to solve them.

• These conflicts are blocking us from reaching agreements, finding solutions, working preventatively or addressing them in time.

• The dispute resolution mechanisms currently in place are incapable of resolving them quickly or deeply.

• If we do not solve them fully and in time, hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of people will die, thousands of species will become extinct, and the Earth may become uninhabitable.

How Mediators Can Help Save the Planet (2)

• These problems will only increase as population and technology grow and we become more interconnected and interdependent.

• The only way we can solve these problems and increase our chances of surviving is to build our capacity to communicate across differences, agree on solutions and implement them through voluntary international collaboration.

• To improve our capacity for voluntary collaboration, we need to reduce the systemic sources of chronic conflict and resistance to change worldwide.

• We therefore need to reduce poverty and inequality, find alternatives to unregulated market competition, and increase political democracy.

• To do any of these successfully, we need to vastly increase skills in cross-cultural communication, prejudice reduction and bias awareness, creative informal problem solving, group facilitation, public dialogue, collaborative negotiation, mediation, conflict resolution systems design, and similar methods.

• To do these, we need an organization that is able to develop, organize, and channel the energies and skills of mediators world-wide.

“We will have to repent in this generation not merely for the vitriolic words or actions of the bad people, but for the appalling silence of the good people. We must come to see that human

progress never rolls in on wheels of inevitability. It comes through the tireless efforts and persistent work of men … and

without this hard work time itself becomes an ally of the forces of social stagnation. We must use time creatively, and forever realize that the

time is always ripe to do right.”

Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

“What are we waiting for? A woman? Two

trees? Three flags? Nothing. What are

we waiting for?”

Andre Breton