CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICTBy Ilka Fedor

MA Thesis Student in 2011

From: oxfamblogs.org

What is Environmental Conflict?

Galtung (1982): “Wars are often over resources.” “The destruction of the environment may

lead to more wars over resources.”

What is Environmental Conflict?

Two theories: Neo-Malthusian vs. Cornucopian

Neo-Malthusian: Population growth leads to resource scarcity Competition arises Potential for violent conflict

Cornucopian: Environmental degradation as a threat

multiplier, not a cause of conflict itself Co-operation and technological advancements

What is Environmental Conflict?

Environmental Conflict in Action"Almost invariably, we discuss Darfur in a

convenient military and political shorthand - an ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers. Look to its roots, though, and you discover a more complex dynamic.

Amid the diverse social and political causes, the Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part

from climate change.“ (Ban Ki-moon, 2007)

Group Work: Summarise Readings

Small groups, briefly discussing the main points of the assigned readings:

1. Barnett & Adger2. Nordås & Gleditsch3. Percival & Homer-Dixon

Ilka’s Interpretations of Readings

Barnett & Adger: Climate change, human security and violent conflict

Key: state vulnerability Reduces quality and access to essential

resources Vulnerable states:

Reduced capacity to provide human security and peace

Increased human security risks May increase likelihood of conflict

Migration may be a response (my thesis)

Ilka’s Interpretations of Readings

Nordås & Gleditsch: Climate change and conflict

Good literature reviewVery few evidential links linking to conflictTwo scenarios:

Resource scarcities may cause conflictInternational or internal forced environmental migration

May lead to conflict – resource competition with new territory

Ilka’s Interpretations of Readings

Percival & Homer-Dixon: Environmental Scarcity in Rwanda

Environmental effects rely on 2 factors: Vulnerability of the ecosystem The population’s physical activity per capita

Increasing population , declining resource base = internal migration Environmental scarcity lands, water, forests, and fish

Key variable = Hutu elite insecurity – Arusha Accords Very limited effect – aggravating, peripheral role

In Rwanda, environmental scarcity exacerbated underlying social , political and institutional

issues

Practical Application of Environmental Conflict

Climate change is “simply the greatest collective challenge we face as a human

family” (Ban Ki-moon, 2009)

Forced migration 200 million people by 2050 (Stern Review 2006)

Most pressing issue: Low-lying atoll nations: Kiribati, Maldives, Tuvalu Islands uninhabitable well before “inundation”

Loss of freshwater, salinated soils, increased ocean temperatures leading to decreased fishing yields, coastal erosion

Overview of My Thesis

Loss of culture, national identity, and sovereignty in the face of climate change

Literature review: Environmental conflict theories Climate change debates and effects Migration psychology Acculturation model

Acculturation: cultural identity during migration Forced migration history

Bikini Island, Banaba (Ocean Island), Carteret Islands International law: refugees and IDP, law of the sea Kiribati: History, culture and environment Research method personal interviews with Kiribati

migrants

Overview of My Thesis

Climate and Conflict in Action?

Kiribati

Population = 100,000 Highest average elevation = 2m Average width: 1m Tarawa: Betio population density = Hong

Kong Limited resources

Kiribati

IPCC estimates 1°C – 3°C increase in ocean temperatures 0.18 – 0.59cm by the end of 21st century

EEZ: 12th largest in the world 3.55 million km2

Political impetus for change lacking

Personal interviews:Loss of culture, national identity, and

sovereignty in the face of climate change

What Do You Think?

Group work: Short discussions in small groups: What do

you think could alleviate culture and nationality loss in the Pacific “sinking island” context?

My Solution (to date...)

Keep EEZ at current demarcations permanently Retains “sovereignty” International law

Global awareness of paying fishing rights fees Funds for culture retention programs

Appeal for international foreign aid for policing EEZ

Thinking of doing an MA?

TOPIC Supervisor:

Expertise, time availability, how many others they supervise, general supervising style

UO MA Scholarship Just APPLY for one Beginning blues (first 3-months?)

Read, read, read and synthesise Attend graduate students workshops participate Network with other MA students collaborate Present your work as you go: poster

presentations, conferences, academic workshops

THANK YOU!Any questions?

ilkafedor@yahoo.com