Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off
description
Transcript of Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off
![Page 1: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ARMED CONFLICT: THE FUTURE IS NOT SO FAR-OFF
Jim Lee, American UniversityInnovations in Student Leadership Conference, Georgetown, February 2010
![Page 2: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
LONG TERM AND SHORT TERM PERSPECTIVESForecasts and Scenarios of
Climate Change and Conflict over the next 100 years
Forecasts and Scenarios of Climate Change and Conflict over the next 20 years
![Page 3: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
RE-THINK THE WORLD: IPCC REGIONS
![Page 4: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN 2100
![Page 5: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN 2100
![Page 6: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
POST-1945 CONFLICT HISTORY (USING SIPRI)
![Page 7: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
FUTURE TO 2015 CONFLICTS (USING DOD)
![Page 8: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
HOT AND COLD WARSHot Wars
War of ContractionLivelihood conflict
Ancient ConflictDeveloping Countries
Cold WarsWar of Expansion
Militarized conflictNew Conflict
Developed Countries
![Page 9: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT: HOT (OLD) AND COLD (NEW) TENSION BELTS
![Page 10: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
FOUR SHORT TERM THREATS
1. Moving Borders2. Cloud Seeding3. Polar Passages4. African Livelihood and Food Security
![Page 11: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
1. MOVING MOUNTAIN BORDERS
![Page 12: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
2. CLOUD SEEDING AROUND THE WORLD (NCAR)
![Page 13: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
3. POLAR PASSAGES (U. TEXAS)
![Page 14: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
4A. AFRICA GROWING SEASONS (2050)
![Page 15: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
4B. POPULATION DENSITIES IN AFRICA
![Page 16: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
IN SUM…1. Climate change will work with
other social factors to create conflict.
2. Conflict will have it’s own impetus that climate change will accelerate.
3. Forecasting is a politically-influenced process, but there are some clear typologies of behavior.
4. There are on-going, impending , and possible conflicts. These new confluences have already begun.
![Page 17: Climate Change and Armed Conflict: The Future is Not So Far-Off](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062501/568165db550346895dd8ecb0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
CONTACT INFORMATION [email protected] James R. Lee, “Climate Change and
Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars” (Routledge, 2009)
Inventory of Conflict and Environment (ICE) in Mandala projectshttp://www1.american.edu/ted/ICE/index.html
Hot and Cold War Projecthttp://www1.american.edu/ted/ICE/climatechange/hotcoldwar.html