www.mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu

Scientific support to

Agriculture, Athens

23.04.2014

1

Climate Change and Agriculture: adaptation and mitigation

Frank Dentener, Ph.D.

2

IPCC AR5 WG1/WG2 reports

IPCC 5th Assessment Report, WG2: “Based on many studies covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts (high confidence)” Climate Change: risk of food insecurity ….particularly poorer populations For Europe climate change impacts: •Flooding, coastal zones •Extreme heat events •Increased water restriction:

Less water from rivers and groundwater, increased water demand, more evaporation especially in Southern Europe=>impact on agriculture

RCP2.6 RCP8.5

Integrated Multi-sectoral Impact Analysis: JRC PESETA II Project

• Assessing climate impacts in Europe (JRC cluster)

• Ten impact areas

• Integrated modelling at JRC: 40 staff, 4 units, 2 institutes

• Large set of biophysical impact and economic damage evaluations

• Contribution to EU’s Adaptation Package

• Agricultural benefits in N. Europe and dis-benefits in S. Europe – when not considering adaptation options

Welfare impacts for EU regions in Reference and 2°C simulations (%GDP): 2090s versus 2000s

North Central South

4

Main agricultural areas across Europe Source: JRC MARS DB, grid cells with at least 30 % of arable land

Source: Report on agriculture - 2011, DG AGRI

Current EU Agriculture - some key figures

EU production – global market

5

Crop monitoring/forecasting in Europe

MCYFS - MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System

6

Linking Climate – Water availability – Crop Growth – Agricultural Production

Climate Change Agriculture

Climate Forcing: IPCC scenarios, downscaling, bias correction

Water cycle: hydrological modelling, water availability for

agriculture

Agro-economy: price of water, commodities, farm income

Crop growth simulations: impacts on yield, production, adaptation

measures

Climate change scenarios: impact on agriculture

• IPCC emission scenario A1B, two “extreme realizations”:

HadleyCM3 (warm) ECHAM5 (cold)

• 2000 (baseline), 2020-2030 time horizons. By 2030: ΔT=0.6

• Downscaled using selected RCM, bias-corrected

• Data used in set of crop growth models at JRC Data covering EU27

Member States using a 25 x 25 km grid

• Selected crops: grain, maize, wheat, sunflower, rapeseed, rice

• Production levels: potential, water-limited (… others)

• No adaptation versus autonomous adaptation by farmers: choice of

genotypes, agro-management such as planting date in response to

changing conditions

7

Weather scenarios – Precipitation

8

• Especially in S. Europe, the final impact patterns are largely driven by precipitation change

• Need to evaluate a range of changes and options

Precipitation Change

9

• Development mostly determined by temperature and day length • Choice of genetic variety and sowing date are adaptation options

Foundation- 6 months Needs cool period for “hardening”

Construction- 2 months Determines grain number

Production – 2 months

Sow

ing

Ear

For

mat

ion

Flow

erin

g

Grain filling

Rip

enin

g

Frost Risk Drought/heat Risk FR

Growth cycle: winter wheat

10

• Development mostly determined by temperature and day length • Choice of genetic variety and sowing date are adaptation options

Sow

ing

Ear

For

mat

ion

Flow

erin

g

Grain filling

Rip

enin

g

Frost Risk Drought/heat Risk FR

Sowing date: unchanged Variety: normal ΔT=1°C

Sowing date: + 10 days Variety: normal ΔT=1°C

Sowing date: + 10 days Variety: slow ΔT=1°C

Growth cycle

Wheat – water limited, no adaptation

Wheat – best adaptation (%)

• Delaying sowing date, slower growing variety can in most regions compensate for moderate climate change

Analysis of different irrigation strategies for growing maize in Europe

13

Three different irrigation strategies to assess the impact on grain maize yield:

Full irrigation – applied water amount completely meets climatic water deficit

Deficit irrigation – apply water during the most sensitive crop development stages (flowering, grainfilling)

Supplemental (conventional) irrigation – reproduces farmers irrigation behaviour; apply irrigation after longer period without rainfall, constant irrigation water amount applied after long period without rainfall (typically 60 mm)

Climate Change: impact of different irrigation strategies

Full Deficit Conventional

Number of irrigation events

14

Irrigation water requirement Relative difference in maize productivity

Analysis of different irrigation strategies for growing maize in Europe

Impact of different irrigation strategies

FULL IRRIGATION

DEFICIT IRRIGATION

Less water Equal yield

Impact of Agriculture on Climate Change

• Direct GHG emissions from agriculture (including livestock) represent ca. 10% of total EU27 emissions

• Life Cycle Assessment shows that indirect emissions from energy, land use change, and industry roughly double this number.

• LCA allows attribution of climate impact to consumer products, and production costs

• Challenge of emission mitigation and increasing resource efficiency along with adaptation.

• The economic model CAPRI allows to estimate the (residual) impact of CC on agriculture on farm income, trade etc.

19129%

19329%

16525%

548%21

3%122%

244%

BeefCow MilkPorkSheep and Goat MeatSheep and Goat MilkPoultry MeatEggs

Total GHG fluxes EU27: 661 Mt CO2-eq

Livestock GHG emissions (CAPRI Model) Source: Weiss and Leip (2012)

Key GHG data (1) 1990 2008 2009 2010 2011 (

2) 2012

1990–

2011

2010–

2011 (2)

Total GHG emissions (Mt CO2-eq.) 5 583.1 4 974.4 4 609.9 4 720.9 4 601.6 n.a. -17.6% -2.5%

GHG from international bunkers (3) (Mt CO2-eq.) 183.1 320.6 293.2 284.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

GHG per capita (t CO2-eq. / capita) 11.8 10.0 9.2 9.4 9.2 n.a. -22.6% -2.8%

GHG per GDP (constant prices) (4) (g CO2-eq. / euro) 626 420 407 409 392 n.a. -37.3% -4.0%

EU ETS allocated allowances (free + auctioning) 2 008.7 2 036.9 2 073.0 2 078.6 n.a. 0.3%

EU ETS verified emissions - all installations (5) (Mt CO2-eq.) 2 100.2 1 860.9 1 919.9 1 884.6 n.a. -1.8%

EU ETS verified emissions - constant scope (6) (Mt CO2-eq.) 1 984.4 1 772.4 1 818.7 1 759.5 n.a. -3.3%

Share of EU ETS verified emissions (all install.) in total GHG (%) 42.2 % 40.4 % 40.7 % 41.0 % n.a. 0.7%

ETS verified emissions compared to annual allowances (7) (%) 104.6% 91.4% 92.6% 90.7% n.a. -2.1%

Share of GHG emissions (excluding international bunkers) by main source and by gas in 2010 (1) (

8)

Assessment  of  short-­term  GHG  trend  (2009–2010)

Key data and trends on renewable energy 2008 2009 20102020

target

Share of renewable energy in final consumption 10.5% 11.7% 12.5% 20.0%

Share of renewable energy in transport 3.5% 4.2% 4.7% 10.0%

Share of renewable energy in electricity 18.8% 19.6% 0.0% n.a.

Share of renewable energy in heating & cooling 12.3% 13.6% 14.3% n.a.

Source: Eurostat

Source and additional information

Greenhouse gas emission data and EU ETS data

In 2010, EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4% compared to 2009. This was due to the return to economic growth in many countries. In 2010 the

winter was also colder than in the previous year, in particular in northern, central and eastern European countries, leading to increased demand for heating and

higher emissions from the residential and commercial sectors. The 2010 winter in Europe was, on average, colder than in 2009. However, the increase in

emissions was contained by a move from coal to natural gas and the sustained strong growth in renewable energy generation. Emissions from manufacturing

industries and construction increased, mainly driven by the significant increase of the iron and steel production.

www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate/data-viewers

(5) All installations included. This includes new entrants and closures. Data from the community independent transaction log (CITL) as of 31 July 2012. The CITL

regularly receives new information (including delayed verified emissions data, new entrants and closures) so the figures shown may change over time.

(7) "+" and "-" mean that verified emissions exceeded allowances or were below allowances, respectively. Annual allowances include allocated allowances and

allowances auctioned during the same year.

(8) LULUCF sector and emissions from international bunkers excluded. Due to independent rounding the sums may not necessarily add up.

(6) Constant scope: includes only those installations with verified emissions available for 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.

(1) Total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), GHG per capita, GHG per GDP and shares of GHG do not include emissions and removals from LULUCF (carbon

sinks) and emissions from international bunkers.

(3) International bunkers: international aviation and international maritime transport.

(4) Gross domestic product (GDP) in 2005 market prices - not suitable for a ranking or quantitative comparison between countries for the same year. GDP

information for the year 1990 is not available for some countries. For this reason, the 'GHG per GDP' values presented in the '1990' column correspond to the

following years: 1991 (EU-15, Bulgaria, Germany, Hungary and Malta), 1992 (Slovakia), 1993 (EU-27 and Estonia) and 1995 (Croatia). Source GDP: Annual

macro-economic database (AMECO), European Commission, 2012.

(2) Based on EEA estimate of 2011 emissions.

GHG trends and projections in the EU-27

31.8 %

28.2 %

19.7 %

7.3 %

9.8 % 3.0 %

0.2 %

Energy supply

Energy use (excluding transport)

Transport

Industrial processes

Agriculture

Waste

Other

82.4 %

8.5 %

7.1 % 2.0 %

CO2

CH4

N2O

F-gases

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Share of renewable energy in gross final consumption

Share of renewable energy in final consumption of energy in transport

Share of renewable energy in final electricity consumption

Share of renewable energy in final consumption of energy for heating and cooling

Renewable energy target (gross final energy consumption)

Renewable energy target (transport)

EU27 GHG emissions per sector in 2010 Source: EEA (2012)

Key GHG data (1) 1990 2008 2009 2010 2011 (

2) 2012

1990–

2011

2010–

2011 (2)

Total GHG emissions (Mt CO2-eq.) 5 583.1 4 974.4 4 609.9 4 720.9 4 601.6 n.a. -17.6% -2.5%

GHG from international bunkers (3) (Mt CO2-eq.) 183.1 320.6 293.2 284.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

GHG per capita (t CO2-eq. / capita) 11.8 10.0 9.2 9.4 9.2 n.a. -22.6% -2.8%

GHG per GDP (constant prices) (4) (g CO2-eq. / euro) 626 420 407 409 392 n.a. -37.3% -4.0%

EU ETS allocated allowances (free + auctioning) 2 008.7 2 036.9 2 073.0 2 078.6 n.a. 0.3%

EU ETS verified emissions - all installations (5) (Mt CO2-eq.) 2 100.2 1 860.9 1 919.9 1 884.6 n.a. -1.8%

EU ETS verified emissions - constant scope (6) (Mt CO2-eq.) 1 984.4 1 772.4 1 818.7 1 759.5 n.a. -3.3%

Share of EU ETS verified emissions (all install.) in total GHG (%) 42.2 % 40.4 % 40.7 % 41.0 % n.a. 0.7%

ETS verified emissions compared to annual allowances (7) (%) 104.6% 91.4% 92.6% 90.7% n.a. -2.1%

Share of GHG emissions (excluding international bunkers) by main source and by gas in 2010 (1) (

8)

Assessment  of  short-­term  GHG  trend  (2009–2010)

Key data and trends on renewable energy 2008 2009 20102020

target

Share of renewable energy in final consumption 10.5% 11.7% 12.5% 20.0%

Share of renewable energy in transport 3.5% 4.2% 4.7% 10.0%

Share of renewable energy in electricity 18.8% 19.6% 0.0% n.a.

Share of renewable energy in heating & cooling 12.3% 13.6% 14.3% n.a.

Source: Eurostat

Source and additional information

Greenhouse gas emission data and EU ETS data

In 2010, EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4% compared to 2009. This was due to the return to economic growth in many countries. In 2010 the

winter was also colder than in the previous year, in particular in northern, central and eastern European countries, leading to increased demand for heating and

higher emissions from the residential and commercial sectors. The 2010 winter in Europe was, on average, colder than in 2009. However, the increase in

emissions was contained by a move from coal to natural gas and the sustained strong growth in renewable energy generation. Emissions from manufacturing

industries and construction increased, mainly driven by the significant increase of the iron and steel production.

www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate/data-viewers

(5) All installations included. This includes new entrants and closures. Data from the community independent transaction log (CITL) as of 31 July 2012. The CITL

regularly receives new information (including delayed verified emissions data, new entrants and closures) so the figures shown may change over time.

(7) "+" and "-" mean that verified emissions exceeded allowances or were below allowances, respectively. Annual allowances include allocated allowances and

allowances auctioned during the same year.

(8) LULUCF sector and emissions from international bunkers excluded. Due to independent rounding the sums may not necessarily add up.

(6) Constant scope: includes only those installations with verified emissions available for 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.

(1) Total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), GHG per capita, GHG per GDP and shares of GHG do not include emissions and removals from LULUCF (carbon

sinks) and emissions from international bunkers.

(3) International bunkers: international aviation and international maritime transport.

(4) Gross domestic product (GDP) in 2005 market prices - not suitable for a ranking or quantitative comparison between countries for the same year. GDP

information for the year 1990 is not available for some countries. For this reason, the 'GHG per GDP' values presented in the '1990' column correspond to the

following years: 1991 (EU-15, Bulgaria, Germany, Hungary and Malta), 1992 (Slovakia), 1993 (EU-27 and Estonia) and 1995 (Croatia). Source GDP: Annual

macro-economic database (AMECO), European Commission, 2012.

(2) Based on EEA estimate of 2011 emissions.

GHG trends and projections in the EU-27

31.8 %

28.2 %

19.7 %

7.3 %

9.8 % 3.0 %

0.2 %

Energy supply

Energy use (excluding transport)

Transport

Industrial processes

Agriculture

Waste

Other

82.4 %

8.5 %

7.1 % 2.0 %

CO2

CH4

N2O

F-gases

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Share of renewable energy in gross final consumption

Share of renewable energy in final consumption of energy in transport

Share of renewable energy in final electricity consumption

Share of renewable energy in final consumption of energy for heating and cooling

Renewable energy target (gross final energy consumption)

Renewable energy target (transport)

Conclusions

• Climate Change has impact on crop yield/agricultural production. Adaption of current production system is possible for relatively mild rates of climate change. No policy intervention needed.

• Stronger climate change, climate extremes? Diseases? Potential for growing different crops?

• Large adaption potential from targetted (deficit) irrigation with limited water demand.

• Uncertainty on future water availability, competition on allocation of limited water resources. Technological/societal limitations.

• Opportunities and need for increased mitigation along with adaptation- agriculture is in Europe and the world an important sector for GHG emissions

• Evaluation of adaptation measures (farm level, policy). Improved resource efficiency.

• Impact on commodity prices, farm income, agricultural sector.

16

17

SECOND-ORDER DRAFT IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 7

Do Not Cite, Quote, or Distribute 72 28 March 2013

Figure 7-4: Since the AR4 report, food prices have reversed historical downward trend. Plot shows history of FAO

food and cereal price index, along with events when a top 5 producer of a crop had yields 25% below trend line

(indicative of a big weather effect). Australia is included despite not being a top five producer, because it is an

important exporter and the drops were 40% or more below trend line. Prices may have become more sensitive to

weather-related supply shortfalls in recent years, perhaps reflecting the importance of interactions with global

storage levels and rapid growth in crop demand. At the same time, because of increased biofuel demand, food prices

are also increasingly linked to the price of crude oil, shown in the blue line (data available at http://www.eia.gov).

Therefore, there is clear evidence since AR4 that prices can rise rapidly, but the role of weather in these increases

remains unclear. All indices are expressed as percentage of 2002-2004 averages.

Several periods of rapid food and cereal price increases following climate extremes in key producing regions indicate a sensitivity of current markets to climate extremes among

other factors (medium confidence); IPCC WG2 Chapter 7

Food price variability (IPCC AR5) climate extremes

• Climate change will have strong impact on global agricultural production and markets. Understanding the interaction of climate change with global agricultural production needs to be improved

18

20 years of in support to the implementation and

monitoring of Common Agricultural Policy

Contacts: Stefan.Niemeyer@jrc.ec.europa.eu Frank.Dentener@jrc.ec.europa.eu

Thank you for your attention!