Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security

Climate Change, Agriculture, and Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food SecurityFood Security

Joachim von BraunJoachim von BraunInternational Food Policy Research InstituteInternational Food Policy Research Institute

Chatham House conference Chatham House conference London, November 2, 2009London, November 2, 2009

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, November 2009

OverviewOverview

1.1. Where do resources and research need Where do resources and research need to be deployed?to be deployed?

2.2. What impacts of international climate What impacts of international climate change agreements on food security?change agreements on food security?

3.3. Policy implicationsPolicy implications


International public goods for food security not International public goods for food security not delivered well; among them are delivered well; among them are

1.1. Trade policyTrade policy

2.2. Research and technology of IPG natureResearch and technology of IPG nature

3.3. Climate change policyClimate change policy

All three are linked and have a large intersection All three are linked and have a large intersection with agriculture and natural resource with agriculture and natural resource

management, and food securitymanagement, and food security


Big picture of climate change, Big picture of climate change, agriculture, and food agriculture, and food

security security

policy challengespolicy challenges


17 Gt of reductions below ‘BAU’ required by 2020 for a 17 Gt of reductions below ‘BAU’ required by 2020 for a 450ppm pathway with (40-60% chance of 2 degrees)450ppm pathway with (40-60% chance of 2 degrees)

Global GHG emissions, Gt CO2e per year

50

55

60

65

70

75

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0

40

45

52

61

70

50

55

60

65

70

75

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0

40

4544

35

-17

-35

Reference pathway‘BAU’

450ppm pathway (with overshoot)

Change relative to 199017 -7

Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Houghton; IEA; US EPA; den Elzen, van Vuuren; Project Catalyst analysis

3-5 Gt from agric. and forestry


Proposed solutionsProposed solutions

1.1. Equitable burden sharingEquitable burden sharing

2.2. Deterring sanction system against free-ridersDeterring sanction system against free-riders

3.3. Global carbon price establishmentGlobal carbon price establishment

4.4. Aggressive emission reductions by industrialized Aggressive emission reductions by industrialized countriescountries

5.5. Major funding for technology cooperation and transferMajor funding for technology cooperation and transfer

6.6. Slower emissions growth in emerging economiesSlower emissions growth in emerging economies

7.7. Monitoring and verificationMonitoring and verification

Source: GES 2009.Source: GES 2009.


Challenges of getting to a Challenges of getting to a global climate change regime global climate change regime

• Questions of global climate justice, historic Questions of global climate justice, historic liability, equal rightsliability, equal rights

• Equitable cost-sharing for mitigation and Equitable cost-sharing for mitigation and adaption (per capita)adaption (per capita)

• Overcoming Kyoto Protocol shortcomingsOvercoming Kyoto Protocol shortcomings

A more efficient but fair global regime on basis A more efficient but fair global regime on basis of int’l cooperation is neededof int’l cooperation is needed


Climate change Climate change willwill affect agriculture affect agriculture

• Threat 1: Threat 1: Environmental changes Environmental changes affecting affecting production with production with - higher and more variable temperatureshigher and more variable temperatures- changed precipitation patternschanged precipitation patterns- more extreme events (droughts, floods) etc.more extreme events (droughts, floods) etc.

• Threat 2: Threat 2: Climate change policies Climate change policies affecting affecting agriculture and poor farming communities agriculture and poor farming communities

- even more distortions adding food sec. risks - even more distortions adding food sec. risks

- regulations, high trans action costs excluding - regulations, high trans action costs excluding poor from Carbon market opportunities poor from Carbon market opportunities


COCO22 emissions by country and sector emissions by country and sector

Source: World Bank and IEA 2007; USEPA 2005; Houghton Source: World Bank and IEA 2007; USEPA 2005; Houghton 2006.2006.


Where do resources and research need to Where do resources and research need to be deployed?be deployed?

Answers:Answers:

1.1. Where the problems are! (the poor Where the problems are! (the poor exposed to climate change impact)exposed to climate change impact)

2.2. Where the opportunities are! Where the opportunities are! (production, ecologies, water; market (production, ecologies, water; market access)access)

3.3. Where the R&D breakthroughs are Where the R&D breakthroughs are likely likely


Climate change policy must focus on the Climate change policy must focus on the poor in rural areaspoor in rural areas

• 75% of the world’s poor live in rural areas in 75% of the world’s poor live in rural areas in developing countries, and most depend on developing countries, and most depend on agriculture for their livelihoods.agriculture for their livelihoods.

• To achieve food security, agriculture To achieve food security, agriculture production must double to feed 9 billion production must double to feed 9 billion people by 2050people by 2050

• The negative effects of climate change on The negative effects of climate change on agricultural productivity increase the food agricultural productivity increase the food security challenge.security challenge.


Directing research to reduce poverty Directing research to reduce poverty Sub-national poverty ca. 2005 ($1.25/day) Sub-national poverty ca. 2005 ($1.25/day)

Prevalence

Number

Source: Stan Wood et al. (IFPRI) 2009.Source: Stan Wood et al. (IFPRI) 2009.


Harness potential - Harness potential - Development domains - Development domains - agricultural production potential and infrastructureagricultural production potential and infrastructure

Notes: Rainfed agriculture potential(crops, grazing, forest) is classified as high, medium or low (H,M,L). Rainfed potential, closed forest, intensively irrigated, and protected areas are all classified into high (H) and low (L) market access areas. Thus ML is medium rainfed agricultural potential areas with low market access.


Explicit pro-poor climate change policies Explicit pro-poor climate change policies needed at all levelsneeded at all levels

Climate change

Extreme weather events

Demographic change

Conflict and crises

• Crop and livestock selection• Cropping and grazing pattern• Irrigation/watering technology

• Water allocation policy• Infrastructure investment• Land use change

• Agriculture and water price policies• Investment, subsidy, tax policies• Trade policies

• Regional trade policies• Global climate policies• Global trading patterns

GLOBAL CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES SPACIAL SCALES

Global level

Regional level

National level

Farm level

Basin level

Source: IFPRI, Ringler 2007.Source: IFPRI, Ringler 2007.


Risk management (trade, reserves)

Social protection

INSURANCE

Source: J. von Braun, adapted from Jacquier et al. 2006. Source: J. von Braun, adapted from Jacquier et al. 2006.

Risk prevention (R&D)

A comprehensive approach for addressing A comprehensive approach for addressing food security risks food security risks – not climate change in isolation – not climate change in isolation


OverviewOverview





What impacts of international climate change What impacts of international climate change agreements on food security?agreements on food security? Depends on…Depends on…

1.1. What agreement? What agreement? – cap and trade; other, incl. – cap and trade; other, incl. CO2 tax;CO2 tax;

2.2. What role agriculture? What role agriculture? – agriculture included – agriculture included or not; or indirectly affect, e.g. through carbon priceor not; or indirectly affect, e.g. through carbon price

3.3. How implemented? How implemented? Investment funds for Investment funds for adapt., mitigation; balancing developed and adapt., mitigation; balancing developed and developing countries’; time;developing countries’; time;

4.4. What complementary actions taken? - What complementary actions taken? - for trade; R&D policy; volatility reduction, etc.for trade; R&D policy; volatility reduction, etc.


Climate change impact: Climate change impact: Global food prices, 2050 Global food prices, 2050

Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009.


Climate change impact: Climate change impact: Child malnutritionChild malnutrition

Part of the silent

climate change

health crisis



Climate change impact: Climate change impact: Net cereal tradeNet cereal trade


(Negative values indicate net imports)(Negative values indicate net imports)


OverviewOverview





Agriculture-related terms in the Bonn Agriculture-related terms in the Bonn negotiating text * negotiating text *

Source: Global Donor Platform for Rural Development 2009.Source: Global Donor Platform for Rural Development 2009.

*Revised Negotiating text June 22, 2009.*Revised Negotiating text June 22, 2009.

and more specific at Barcelona


Adaptation policy actions (and Adaptation policy actions (and toward mitigation) toward mitigation)


Agricultural research, water management, and rural Agricultural research, water management, and rural investmentinvestment

- Crop breeding for both irrigated and rainfed Crop breeding for both irrigated and rainfed agriculture and biotechnology for stress tolerant agriculture and biotechnology for stress tolerant materials to address drought- and heat-tolerance,materials to address drought- and heat-tolerance,

- Productivity of range lands and pastoralistsProductivity of range lands and pastoralists

- Water harvesting, minimum tillage, integrated soil Water harvesting, minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management etc.fertility management etc.

- Rural infrastructure investment to improve access Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, risk insurance, credit, inputsto markets, risk insurance, credit, inputs

Adaptation for increasing agricultural Adaptation for increasing agricultural productivityproductivity

Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.


Agricultural adaptation funding estimation: Agricultural adaptation funding estimation: assumptions for IFPRI modelingassumptions for IFPRI modeling

• 60% increase in all crop yield growth over 60% increase in all crop yield growth over baselinebaseline

• 30% increase in animal numbers growth30% increase in animal numbers growth

• 40% increase in production growth of oils and 40% increase in production growth of oils and mealsmeals

• 25% increase in irrigated area growth25% increase in irrigated area growth

• 15% decrease in rainfed area growth15% decrease in rainfed area growth

• 0.15% increase in basin water efficiency by 20500.15% increase in basin water efficiency by 2050


Additional Additional annualannual agricultural adaptation agricultural adaptation funding required (IFPRI IMPACT model)funding required (IFPRI IMPACT model)

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

Developing countries

Agric. research 314 172 1,316

Irrigation expansion 537 344 907

Irrigation efficiency 187 999 2,158

Rural roads 2,015 17 2,737

Total 3,053 1,531 7,118

to counteract climate change effects on child nutrition by 2050 (million 2000 US$)


The mix of investments differs by regionThe mix of investments differs by region


Mitigation policy actions (and not Mitigation policy actions (and not de-linked from adaptation) de-linked from adaptation)

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, November 2009 Source: McKinsey, 2009

Developing country abatement cost curve, Developing country abatement cost curve, 2020 (up to costs of €60/t)2020 (up to costs of €60/t)

Energy efficiency in buildings, transportation

and industry

Demos / investmentin emerging

technologies

Agriculture and forestry

Support to overcome barriers (best practice

info, capacity building,loans)

Support to compensate incremental costs, e.g. through offset market or

grants

Support to compensate incremental costs

(grants) and international cooperation

Power supply

8 10 12 142 4 6*

Cost of abatement € / ton

Forestry Agriculture Industry Power Transport Buildings

0

20

40

60

-20

-80

-60

-40

Technology follows investment

Abatement potential Gt CO2e


Agricultural mitigation policyAgricultural mitigation policy

• Include carbon sequestration from land use and Include carbon sequestration from land use and soil carbon in global carbon trading systemsoil carbon in global carbon trading system

• Fund development and implementation of low-cost Fund development and implementation of low-cost monitoring systemsmonitoring systems

• Allow innovative payment mechanisms and Allow innovative payment mechanisms and support for novel institutions for agricultural support for novel institutions for agricultural mitigationmitigation


Tradeoffs and win-winsTradeoffs and win-wins

• Tradeoffs occur between GHG emissions of Tradeoffs occur between GHG emissions of agric. and related mitigation action:agric. and related mitigation action:

- COCO22 sequestration in the short term leads to sequestration in the short term leads to

competition with food-fuel-fiber production and competition with food-fuel-fiber production and food security risksfood security risks

- GMOs can reduce tradeoffsGMOs can reduce tradeoffs

• Potential win-wins can emerge:Potential win-wins can emerge:- If agric R&D investments have higher shareIf agric R&D investments have higher share- As payments for environmental services As payments for environmental services

increase agric. productivity in the long termincrease agric. productivity in the long term


R&D policy actions, and R&D policy actions, and technology sharing, serving technology sharing, serving adaptation and mitigation adaptation and mitigation


A technology transfer package for A technology transfer package for Copenhagen Copenhagen (New Delhi conference Oct 22-23, 2009)(New Delhi conference Oct 22-23, 2009)

• enhanced technological cooperation, joint research enhanced technological cooperation, joint research and development of new technologies and products; and development of new technologies and products;

• assessment, evaluation and expert guidance on new assessment, evaluation and expert guidance on new and emerging technologies; and emerging technologies;

• technology financing; technology financing; • Public goods rather than IPRPublic goods rather than IPR• improve access to and deployment of technologies.improve access to and deployment of technologies.

Copy Green Revolution CGIAR - as a model for research Copy Green Revolution CGIAR - as a model for research collaboration on climate change technologies: collaboration on climate change technologies: creation of an international network of Climate creation of an international network of Climate Innovation Centers (CICs); Innovation Centers (CICs);

> Let CGIAR do the agriculture and forestry related IPG > Let CGIAR do the agriculture and forestry related IPG innovations in cooperation with a CICinnovations in cooperation with a CIC


New CGIAR strategic objectivesNew CGIAR strategic objectives

Strategic objectives (sub-goals): Strategic objectives (sub-goals):

1.1. Create and accelerate sustainable increases in the productivity Create and accelerate sustainable increases in the productivity and production of healthy food by and for the poor. and production of healthy food by and for the poor. (“FOOD FOR PEOPLE”)(“FOOD FOR PEOPLE”)

2.2. Conserve, enhance, and sustainably use natural resources and Conserve, enhance, and sustainably use natural resources and biodiversity to improve the livelihoods of the poor in response biodiversity to improve the livelihoods of the poor in response to to climate changeclimate change and other factors. and other factors. (“ENVIRONMENT FOR PEOPLE”)(“ENVIRONMENT FOR PEOPLE”)

3.3. Promote policy and institutional change that will stimulate Promote policy and institutional change that will stimulate agricultural growth and equity to benefit the poor, especially agricultural growth and equity to benefit the poor, especially rural women and other disadvantaged groups. rural women and other disadvantaged groups. (“POLICY FOR PEOPLE”)(“POLICY FOR PEOPLE”)


The broad directions for food security The broad directions for food security conscious climate change policy conscious climate change policy

1.1. An efficient and fair An efficient and fair globalglobal climate regime is needed climate regime is needed

2.2. The The food security food security effects of climate change must be effects of climate change must be important determinants for policy; important determinants for policy;

3.3. Investment for Investment for agriculture’s GHG neutralityagriculture’s GHG neutrality must not must not be delayedbe delayed

4.4. Invest in Invest in adaptation in developmental waysadaptation in developmental ways; $ 7 billn. ; $ 7 billn. p.a.p.a.

5.5. Climate stress requires to more Climate stress requires to more open tradeopen trade

6.6. Carbon market opportunities for agriculture Carbon market opportunities for agriculture must not must not undermine food securityundermine food security

7.7. Combining agric. Combining agric. carbon market participation with carbon market participation with sound agricultural R&Dsound agricultural R&D promises win-win promises win-win


Some proposed Copenhagen language: Some proposed Copenhagen language: 1. Incentives for mitigation through bio-sequestration:1. Incentives for mitigation through bio-sequestration:

Nations are encouraged to provide incentives Nations are encouraged to provide incentives for mitigation through carbon sequestration for mitigation through carbon sequestration associated with changes in land use, associated with changes in land use, agricultural and forestry practices and for agricultural and forestry practices and for agricultural GHG emission reductions as an agricultural GHG emission reductions as an integral part of the global climate change integral part of the global climate change regime. Such incentives shall be designed in regime. Such incentives shall be designed in ways that would not put food security at risk.ways that would not put food security at risk.


Some proposed Copenhagen language: Some proposed Copenhagen language: 2. Investment for adaptation:2. Investment for adaptation:

Investment for agricultural adaptation to climate Investment for agricultural adaptation to climate change shall be increased in order to improve change shall be increased in order to improve food security under climate change and food security under climate change and therefore agriculture and forestry, especially therefore agriculture and forestry, especially in developing countries, shall benefit from a in developing countries, shall benefit from a fund at appropriate scale for results oriented fund at appropriate scale for results oriented investments that enhance food security and investments that enhance food security and livelihoods. livelihoods.


Some proposed Copenhagen language: Some proposed Copenhagen language: 3. Technology generation and sharing:3. Technology generation and sharing:

An international public research network for An international public research network for climate change related technology generation climate change related technology generation and sharing shall be established and funded and sharing shall be established and funded to operate as an independent consultative to operate as an independent consultative group, with a focus on knowledge related to group, with a focus on knowledge related to both, adaptation and mitigation. It shall both, adaptation and mitigation. It shall complement the desired innovations that are complement the desired innovations that are property rights protected. In the field of property rights protected. In the field of agriculture and forestry and land use and land agriculture and forestry and land use and land cover change as well as water related cover change as well as water related research it shall draw on the CGIAR. research it shall draw on the CGIAR.


IFPRI on the webIFPRI on the web http://www.ifpri.org/ http://www.ifpri.org/

Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security

Technology

Transcript of Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security