Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

vicroads.vic.gov.au

Climate Change Risk Assessment2015

Disclaimer

This Assessment document has been prepared by VicRoads to assist it in adapting to climate change in the construction, maintenance and management of road and road related assets. While it has been prepared taking all professional care, it should not be relied on as the basis of decision making, but could contribute to the strategic context to inform further work.

Contents

Executive Summary 4

1. Introduction 5

2. Climate Change Adaptation 6

3. Strategic Context 8

4. Climate Change Projections 11

5. Climate Change Risk Assessment 14 5.1 Asset information 17

6. Detailed Risk Assessment 20 6.1 Sea Level Risk 20

6.2 Temperature 24

6.3 Rainfall 25

6.4 Extreme Weather Events 28

6.5 UV Level 29

6.6 Prioritising Risks 30

7. Developing Adaptation Responses 32 7.1 Sea Level Rise 32

7.2 Temperature 34

7.3 Rainfall 35

7.4 UV Level 36

7.5 Long Term Asset Responses 36

7.6 Organisational Responses 37

8. Next Steps 38

Glossary 39

Bibliography 40

Appendices 42 Appendix 1 : Case Studies 42

Phillip Island Road – Climate Adaptation 42

Great Ocean Road – Adaptation Measure 43

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Executive SummarySimilar to other road agencies both nationally and internationally, VicRoads is working to develop its own responses to climate change. Significant effort has been undertaken in the last five years to understand the level of risks posed to the road network from the projected changes in climate and to take action to mitigate its greenhouse emissions to lessen the impacts and the risks associated with climate change (VicRoads, 2010).

In general the more mitigation there is, the less will be the impacts to which we will have to adjust and the less the risks for which we will have to try and prepare. Conversely, the greater the degree of preparatory adaptation, the less may be the impacts associated with any given degree of climate change.

This risk assessment document summarises the work undertaken to assess the risks to VicRoads infrastructure associated with climate change parameters, as well as some appreciation of the timeframe and potential directions for climate change adaptation. In developing this Assessment document, VicRoads has assumed a future climate with the highest level of climate change impact, consistent with the approach of most organisations and government bodies within Australia.

Overall, the climate change risk assessment has identified that whilst there are forecast impacts to different asset classes through time, the appropriate approach is primarily guided by the likely lifespan of the assets. For example, with respect to assets with short life spans (i.e. Intelligent Transport Systems), or periodic replacement requirements (i.e. pavement surfacing) adaptation measures will be implemented as a running change at an appropriate point in time. However, a number of assets have a lifetime beyond normal budgetary forecasting timeframes (i.e. bridges). In these cases, the adaptation measures will need to be built into the construction requirements of future assets and a set of responses will be needed to manage existing assets to ensure they continue to perform for their planned life.

The greatest single climate change risk to VicRoads is the impact to assets in coastal regions from sea level rise. Whilst these impacts are predicted in low lying areas across the entire Victorian coastline, the impact is likely to be greatest in Eastern Region, potentially through a combination of the overtopping of roads, impacts to pavement layers and the structures of bridges in these locations resulting in likely interruptions to network operations.

Whilst it is important to start building knowledge in the shorter term to support adaptation actions, sufficient time remains to be better informed as new information emerges regarding climate projections. As a consequence, this adaptation strategy will need to continuously evolve as more modelling and measurement is undertaken to monitor the performance of the road network over time. This is particularly important as data regarding the performance of the road network or changes to climate projections will be analysed and absorbed often faster than policy and planning can adapt.

CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT 5

1. IntroductionThe VicRoads road network is a $45 billion government asset, a key component of the state’s overall transportation infrastructure, which links with local roads and other transportation modes. Its continued safe and efficient operation is essential to economic prosperity.

VicRoads operates, maintains and upgrades the main and arterial road network, which consists of over 22,500 kilometres (51,500 lane kilometres) of main roads across the state. Approximately 19,100 kilometres are located in regional Victoria, the remainder in Metropolitan areas. Many of VicRoads activities are either directly affected or influenced by the weather and climate. Along with other state and national infrastructures, roads are vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Many of the projected impacts will be adverse, but some may be positive. This Assessment document outlines how VicRoads will address adaptation in response to the potential impacts of climate change during the planning, design, operation and maintenance of the State’s main road infrastructure. In particular, it addresses how VicRoads will factor in anticipated changes in climatic parameters into the delivery of its activities and develop appropriate management and mitigation solutions to remove or reduce these risks.

The magnitude and rate of climate change depends partly on future global greenhouse emissions. Consequently, mitigation action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has been and continues to be a key focus of other strategies. However, even if global greenhouse gas emissions were to stop today, climate change would continue for many decades as a result of past emissions and the inertia of the climate system. Adaptation to already experienced changes in climate as well as to plausible future climate scenarios is therefore a necessity.

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2. Climate Change AdaptationThere is increasing scientific consensus that the global climate is changing, with these changes being observed and increasingly documented across the world (Stocker, et al., 2013), across Australia (CSIRO, 2014), across Victoria (Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability Victoria, 2012) and locally within Victoria (SKM, 2012). These changes are relative to historical trends and are being observed in a number of climate parameters such as rainfall volumes and patterns, temperatures as well as sea levels. Whilst most parameters are currently operating within historical ranges, they are forecast to move beyond these by the end of the current century.

A number of organisations have sought to define the concept of adaptation. For the purposes of this Assessment document, adaptation consists of actions that reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems or to increase system resiliency in light of expected climate change or extreme weather events. Climate change adaptation for VicRoads is concerned with maintaining network and asset performance within this changing climate. Several aspects of this definition merit attention.

First, the types of actions that can be taken to reduce vulnerability to changing environmental conditions include avoiding, withstanding, and/or taking advantage of climate variability and impacts. Thus, for roads and other road related facilities, avoiding areas forecast to have a higher risk of significant climate impacts should be an important factor in planning decisions. If such locations cannot be avoided, steps need to be taken to ensure that road infrastructure can withstand the projected changes in environmental conditions. For example, the potential for increased flooding might be a reason to increase bridge elevations beyond what historic data might suggest. Climate change may also present opportunities that transportation professionals can take advantage of, like the placement of bituminous surfacing during spring and autumn at some locations. These types of actions decrease the likelihood of impacts occurring.

Second, the result of adaptive action either decreases a system’s vulnerability to changed conditions or increases its resilience to negative impacts. For example, increasing ultra-violet radiation exposure can cause bituminous surfaces across the road network to fail sooner than anticipated. Using different materials or different approaches that recognize this vulnerability can lead to surfaces pavement that will not suffer adverse performance with higher radiation levels.

Operational improvements could be made to enhance detour routes around flood-prone areas as a form of resilience. Another example of resilience is the development of well-designed emergency response plans, which can increase resilience by quickly providing information and travel alternatives when highway facilities are closed and by facilitating rapid restoration of damaged facilities. By increasing system resilience, even though a particular facility might be disrupted, the main road network as a whole still functions and decreases the consequences of impacts.

Figure 2.1 illustrates the different approaches to adaptation. Some adaptation strategies could be targeted to reduce the impacts of specific types of climate changes. For example, by protecting existing assets or by relocating assets away from vulnerable areas, the functionality of that asset is preserved in future years when more extreme weather events could create a threat.

Ultimately, a wide range of activities will be considered “adaptation,” from relatively simple operations and maintenance actions such as ensuring culverts and stormwater drains are clear of debris, to complex and costly planning and engineering actions like re-locating a road alignment away from an area prone to erosion or sea level rise. Given the broad scope of adaptation activities, it is important that a comprehensive decision making approach be formulated that describes the steps engineers, planners, operations and maintenance personnel, should take to focus on the significant risks on the transport system as a whole and avoid piecemeal decision making. Such an approach should also be sufficiently flexible to allow for the consideration of updated climate change forecasts as well as an examination of a range of potential cost-effective solutions.


Figure 2.1 Illustration of How Activities to Decrease Likelihood and Consequence Fit Together and Influence the Impacts and Consequence of Climate Change.(Adapted from (Melillo, Richmond, & Yohe, 2014)

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3. Strategic ContextUnderstanding our community and customers needs and the different adaptation strategies that may be adopted by various transport stakeholders will be key to ensuring a well functioning transport system as the backbone for economic activities and movement of people.

At this stage, the only legislative requirement in relation to climate change adaptation is the Victorian Climate Change Act 2010 which requires the Victorian Government to develop a Climate Change Adaptation Plan every four years to outline the potential impacts and risks associated with a changing climate. The first Victorian Climate Change Adaptation Plan was released in March 2013 (DSE, 2013) which lists the key risk to roads as being;

More frequent extreme weather events may increase the risk of disruptions to traffic, increase maintenance and repair costs and replacement of pavements and structures (bridges and culverts).

In response to this risk, the VicRoads Sustainability and Climate Change Strategy 2010-2015 was referenced as the Victorian Government response for managing risks to roads. However, this Assessment document was largely focused on mitigation measures and while mitigation tackles the causes of climate change, adaptation tackles the effects of the phenomenon. Climate mitigation and adaptation should not be seen as alternatives to each other, as they are not discrete activities but rather a combined set of actions in an overall approach to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It has since been recognised that a more detailed approach was required to address the interagency and statewide risks presented by climate change (VAGO, 2013).

From a planning perspective, the risks associated with climate change was added to the Victorian Planning Provisions in 2012 (Victorian Planning Provisions Section 10 Clause 13) to take into consideration the potential for a 0.8m sea level rise by 2100 and an additional 0.2m allowance for a 1 in 100 year flood by 2040 for urban infill developments.

In recognising the importance of climate change and adaptation as both a strategic and operational risk, VicRoads has integrated climate change impacts into its existing corporate risk management framework. This framework has been used as the basis for determining the significance of climate change risk to VicRoads assets, using the following risk categories:

z Business performance and capability

z Financial

z Assets

z Management effort and people

z Environmental and cultural heritage

z Legal and compliance

z Occupational health and safety

Having identified the risk assessment criteria, this information was then utilised to assess climate risks and to document the systematic process undertaken to determine the need for adaptation responses and how these will be incorporated into subsequent policies and procedures for planning, maintenance or operational personnel. The systematic approach is outlined in Figure 3.1.


Figure 3.1 VicRoads Climate Adaptation Framework

Stakeholder EngagementDetermine risk assessment criteria and assumptions

Establish relevant climate changeprojections

Establish asset type categories

Determine susceptibleassets and activities(RIsks)

Prioritising risks based on asset life and adaptation window

Develop adaptationresponses andimplement as planned

Research, monitoringor periodic review

Review

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In addition, the VicRoads Strategic Commitment 2015-2019 has identified four key strategic objectives each of which can be adversely impacted by climate risk. These are described in more detail in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1 Relationship between VicRoads Strategic Commitment and Climate Change Impacts.

Strategic Commitment Climate Change Impacts by 2070

Customers & Community

We create solutions with our Customers and Community

VicRoads recognises the value of engaging with the community to understand their needs, so climate adaptation responses developed will provide the better solutions.

Journeys

Enabling integrated transport choices and making journeys pleasant and predictable

Whilst decreased rainfall and increased temperatures will overall be a positive influence on travel time predictability, it is recognised that adverse weather events will create stressful conditions. Impacts to vegetation may also have an adverse impact on the amenity of road users.

Wellbeing

Improving road safety, amenity and environmental outcomes

Increased temperatures will have a positive impact on risks from black ice and snow. However, in some specific circumstances there may be temporary increases to aquaplaning risks during more intense rain events.

Productivity

Strengthening the economy through better use of roads and connections with land use

There are likely to be increased maintenance requirements to assets with long design lives or those which are difficult to adapt, which may impact on the productivity of the road network. Adverse weather events are also likely to impact on the productivity of the road network

VicRoads interactive website is an example of a tool to address customer needs for greater and more timely information regarding network performance and availability as a result of adverse weather events.


4. Climate Change ProjectionsClimate change projections for 2030, 2070 and 2100 have been adopted based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)1 (Solomon, et al., 2007). There are a range of future climate scenarios within the IPCC AR4 projections and these are shown Figure 4.1. The scenarios are based on the following assumptions:

z A1: Rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter followed by rapid introductions of new and more efficient technologies

z A2: A very heterogeneous world with an emphasis on family values and local traditions

z B1: Introduction of clean technologies

z B2: Emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability

The major underlying themes of the A1 scenarios are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B).

VicRoads has adopted the A1FI future climate scenario, which is based on the continuation of a fossil intensive energy sector with the generation of greenhouse gases projected to increase accordingly. This is a conservative worst case position projecting the more significant impacts of climate change. This is consistent with the approach to climate change accepted elsewhere within Victoria (SKM, 2012) (CSIRO, 2007 e) and Australia (DCCEE, 2011). It is also consistent with fossil fuel emissions data which indicate that global emissions are still tracking at or above the A1FI scenario (Global Carbon Project, 2014).

For the purposes of assessing risk to the road network, the 2070 projections have been adopted as the most appropriate basis to guide the development of this Assessment document for the following reasons:

z The incremental climate change projections at 2030 generally produce effects that are within historical operating conditions and would not require any special actions. The 2030 projections were therefore considered as not suitable as an indicator of possible future actions for an adaptive response.

z Many of the 2100 model projections diverge quite widely due to the large degree of uncertainty. In addition, it was considered that future changes to other factors affecting road asset management such as the split of transport modes, land use, travel patterns etc would also be a critical input to adaptive responses.

z 2100 projections were seen to be useful for reference, but they were not suitable for the development of specific adaptive responses at this point in time. Nonetheless, it is recognised that climate change impacts are forecast up to and beyond this time.

Exceptions to this approach were:

z consideration of the effects of sea level rise, for which there is already a general consensus within state and federal government departments on the appropriate amount of sea level rise to adopt for the year 2100 (Victorian Planning Provisions Section 10 Clause 13, 2014).

z Where the only data available for a climatic parameter is based on 2100 projections, such as the increased incidence of warm nights over 21°C.

1 The latest data released in IPCC AR5 shows minor changes from the IPCC AR4 report, but indicates a higher level of certainty regarding the potential impacts of climate change (Stocker, et al., 2013). The latest predictions for temperature increases are 2.6 to 4.8 °C by 2100, which has changed from 2.4 to 6.4 °C in the IPCC AR4 report. Projections for sea level rise also remain fairly consistent however, these are still to be reflected in Australian and Victorian projections and models.

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Currently, Australian data sources such as the Climate Change in Australia website (CSIRO, 2007 a) and local projections such as the Future Coasts Program (DEPI a, 2013) have not yet been republished to reflect the IPCC AR5 projections and as such they still represent the best level of publically available data. Data has also been sourced from other locations where necessary.

There is uncertainty inherent in predicting climate change. Where available, scenarios with a range of projections represented as percentiles have been used to gain confidence in the projections, however, there were not available for all parameters. In the vast majority of climate change parameters with percentiles reviewed, the percentiles show a clear trend in the one direction (e.g. all temperature projections are for a warmer climate). However, in the case of rainfall it shows that whilst the 10th percentile represents

a drier climate, the 90th percentile represents a wetter climate. A summary of these projections is presented in Table 4.1. Where available, these scenarios produce relatively consistent projections of climate change effects for 2070.

Given that climate change impacts are based on modelling, the magnitude of these changes and the certainty of these predictions are represented as a range of possibilities, diverging towards the end of the century and beyond. Sea level rise is an example of this and is virtually certain to extend beyond 2100 (Stocker, et al., 2013).

A variety of climatic parameters were considered during the development of this Assessment document with those seen as relevant to the road network shown in Table 4.1. A more detailed description of these climatic parameters are shown in Sections 6.1 to 6.5.

Figure 4.1 Range of Climate Change Scenarios (Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability Victoria, 2012 - Global Carbon Project)

9.14 GtC/y

Observed emissions have outpaced all of the IPCC projections for mid 2010

6.75 GtC/y

6.35 GtC/y

Mid2010

Mid1990

Mid2000

A1FI

IPCC projected emissions

A1B A2 B1 B2 A1T

Observed

10

9.5

9

8.5

8

7.5

7

6.5

6

5.5

5

199

0

199

5

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Foss

il fu

el e

mm

issi

on

s (G

igat

on

nes

Car

bo

n/y

ear)


Table 4.1 Summary of Projections of Climatic Parameters used in assessing VicRoads Climate Change Risks

2009* 2030 2070 2100**

Sea level rise

Sea Level Rise 0 +0.15 m^ +0.47 m +0.82 m

Storm Surge (Storm Height Return Levels) 1.0 to 2.2 m 1.2 to 2.3 m 1.6 to 2.7 m

Temperature

Average Annual Temperature (°C)

10th percentile

50th percentile

90th percentile

0

+0.3 to 1.0

+0.6 to 1.0

+1.5 to 2

+1.5 to 2.5

+2.0 to 4.0

+3 to 5°C

The frequency of very hot days over 35°C Melbourne (Mildura)

9 (32) days 12# (39) days 20 (60) days

The incidence of heatwaves (>5 consecutive days over 35°C)

1 1 1 to 2

The incidence of warm nights over 21°C 0 - - +15-50%

Humidity levels (% Change)

10th percentile

50th percentile

90th percentile

0

-0.5 to 0.5

-1.0 to 0.5

-2.0 to -0.5

-0.5 to 0.0

-2.0 to -0.5

- >4 to -1 %

Rainfall

Annual rainfall volume

10th percentile

50th percentile

90th percentile

0

-10 to -20%

-0.2 to +0.5%

-2 to +5%

-20 to -40%

-10 to -20%

-5 to +40%

-

Heavy Rainfall Intensity (99th percentile) 0 +1% +6.5% -

Number of Rainy Days (>1 mm rainfall) 0 -5% -17% -

Evapotranspiration levels 0 +4 to 8% +12 to >16 % -

Fire risk

The Projected Number of high and extreme fire risk days in Melbourne (Mildura)

14.8 (56.6) 15.7 to 18.6 # (59.5 to 66.9) #

16.2 to 23.6 ## (62.3 to 90.5) ##

-

Wind speed

10 metres above ground

10th percentile

50th percentile

90th percentile

0

+2 to 5%

-2 to +2%

-15 to -5%

+10 to 15%

-5 to +2%

>-15 to -10%

-

Radiation

Radiation levels. Estimated [Annual Average Noon UV Index (x 25 mWm-2)]

10th percentile

50th percentile

90th percentile

0 [6.5]

+1% [6.6]

+1% [6.6]

+2% [6.6]

+1% [6.6]

+5% [6.8]

+10% [7.2]

-

*2009 in reality is a twenty year average from 1990-2010, used mostly as a baseline reference ^ sea level rise data point is for 2040. ** 2100 is included in the table for sea level rise and the incidence of warm nights where no earlier projections are available # data point is for 2020 ## data point is for 2050

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5. Climate Change Risk Assessment

Over the past five years Victoria has experienced a number of occurrences of abnormal weather, which, in a number of cases, are similar to or worse than the projected future climatic parameters, including;

z the Millennium drought from 1995 to 2009, resulting in significantly drier conditions across the state and degraded vegetation;

z seven of the ten hottest years on record have occurred since 1998;

z the 2011 floods which impacted a significant portion of the state and resulted in the closure of some regional roads for significant periods of time to clear landslides and rebuild roads and bridges;.

z the high temperature conditions experienced in Victoria in 2009, with the hottest day ever recorded at 45.8 oC which is even higher than the long range projections;

z the record heatwave temperatures of January 2014 with four days in a row of over 40oC, which resulted in several road closures for softened pavements and contributed to pavement surface tearing on the Westgate Bridge; and,

z the significant bushfires experienced in 2009 with the Black Saturday fires resulting in 173 fatalities and burned over 450,000 hectares including VicRoads roadside assets as well as other infrastructure.

In the case of these recently experienced weather occurrences, they are typical of conditions elsewhere in the world or indeed in Australia. Under climate change projections, they are also likely to be reflective of conditions experienced more frequently in Victoria. It is also recognised that VicRoads has historically experienced weather related road network interruptions such as storm surges, black ice, snow, storm surge or localised flooding. This highlights specific susceptible locations that will be monitored for any changes in frequency or severity of interruptions.

An analysis of weather related road closures between December 2011 and May 2014 is presented in Figure 5.1 and Figure 5.2 demonstrating that road closures are related primarily to rainfall and flooding.

Given the number of assets, size and the geographic diversity of Victoria, the number of occurrences of abnormal weather events as well as the projected climate changes, it is necessary for VicRoads to have a sound basis for determining risk, what adaptation should occur and when it should occur, in order to address these risks.


Water on road

70%

Flood damage

3%

Temperature

(Fire and soft pavement)6%

Landslip

8%

Winter weather

(snow and ice on road)13%

Figure 5.1 Road Closures Related to Climate Parameters

Floodwater

51%

Landslip

3%

Fire

14%

Flood damage

28%

Snow

3%

Storm event

1%

Figure 5.2 Road Hazards Related to Climate Parameters

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Whilst past experience is valuable as a predictor of future climate and weather it may not be sufficient. As noted above, weather conditions and specifically extreme weather events are already a primary cause of disruption and road agencies such as VicRoads already dedicate resources to anticipate their impacts and adapt infrastructure and operations. However, due to the projected magnitude of climate change and taking into account the degree of uncertainty, an incremental approach based on traditional practice is not expected to be effective in the future. Therefore, innovative and broader approaches to adaptation are needed potentially leading to structural changes in transport services and strengthened cooperation with other sectors (EEA, 2014).

At this point in time, VicRoads along with other road agencies in Australia is involved in the development, modification and adoption of road design standards and guidelines. The drainage section of the Austroads Guide to Road Design (ARRB, 2013), already includes sections on climate change, in particular how rainfall intensity will change across catchments and work is underway to review the Australian Standard for Bridge Design (AS 5100), specifically requiring consideration of climate change impacts in future design.

…. consideration of sustainability and climate change ensure that these important aspects will be incorporated into designs and reduce the risk of occupational health and safety issues and level of service issues of the structures we design (Powers & Rapattoni, 2014).


5.1 Asset information

VicRoads categorises its assets broadly into seven categories with each having a number of subcategories. These have been used to assess risks within the framework, as described in Table 5.1.

Table 5.1 Description of VicRoads Asset Categories

Asset Type Description Subcategories

Road Pavements Road Pavement Layers are made up of compacted layers of structural fill and crushed rock. The purpose of the road pavement is to carry and distribute wheel loads without deforming and causing damage to the surface layers.

Concrete Road

Asphalt Road

Spray Seal Road

Unsealed Road

Road Surfacing Layers

The purpose of the road surfacing is to provide a low maintenance all-weather riding surface, which protects the underlying structural road pavement from ingress of free water. Water weakens the unbound material, causing potholes, ruts and corrugations.

Concrete Road

Asphalt Road

Spray Seal Road

Unsealed Road

Drainage The surfaces of the 22,500 kilometres of main roads are designed to shed water off the pavement and to ensure safe travel for vehicles during rainfall events. In urban areas, the concentrated flows are collected in concrete channels adjacent to kerbing which lead to underground pipe systems. In most of the rural areas, the concentrated flows are collected in earth lined open drains that carry the collected water to local streams and channels.

Surface Flow

Underground Drains

Special Drainage Structures

Roadsides VicRoads manages about 80,000 hectares of road reservation and has planted more than 8 million trees and shrubs. These road reserves also contain significant tracts of landscaped and remnant native vegetation.

Roadsides also provide areas for placement of signs and safety barriers, for landscaping and amenity, footpaths and bicycle paths, visual screening, as well areas for the safe recovery for errant vehicles. They are also an important location for public utilities such as power, gas, and telecommunication cables.

Naturally Landscaped Areas

Planted and Landscaped Areas

Grassed Areas

Natural Slopes

Paved Areas

Road Signs

Fauna Sensitive Features

Pavement Markings

Safety Barriers

Property Fences

Structures VicRoads manages around 3200 bridges on the main road network and more than 4500 other structures such as large culverts, steel gantries and cantilever sign supports, retaining walls and noise barriers.

Road Bridge

Bridge over Waterway

Large Culvert

Major Sign Support

Noise Walls

Retaining Walls and Structural Safety Barriers

High Mast Lighting

ITS/Electrical Assets There are around 3500 sets of traffic signals on the main road network. In addition, there are around 4400 on-road electrical devices such as illuminated or dynamic road signs, CCTV monitoring cameras, help phones and various vehicle detection and warning systems, and 70000 street lights (around 90% of these have shared responsibility with local councils).

Electrical (i.e. street lighting, pits and cables)

Electronic (i.e. solar installations, height detection devices)

Mechanical (i.e. pumps)

VicRoads Activities VicRoads manages a construction and maintenance program to value of around $1.5 Billion per annum including 22,500 kilometres of road and assets valued at over $45 billion.

Planning and Design

Construction

Maintenance

Operations

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For each of these asset categories an assessment has been undertaken to identify those susceptible assets and activities which are likely to be negatively affected by climate change. For risk identification, a combination of the following techniques was used

z Brainstorming outcomes based on facilitated workshop

z Adapted Delphi technique – where risks and predicted outcomes were re-circulated among the experts for comment to achieve a consensus of opinion and ensuring that no one person had undue influence on the outcome

z Interviews with key technical experts

z Interviews with key external stakeholders including Wyndham City Council; Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation and Research; Association of Bayside Municipalities; Westernport Local Coastal Hazard Assessment Group; Western Alliance for Greenhouse Adaptation; and Climate Resilient Communities of the Barwon South West.

z Root cause analysis – for identifying a problem and discovering the causes that led to it

The initial identification of susceptible assets and activities found a significant number of risks existed across a wide range of assets types. The distribution of risk level by asset type is summarised in Table 5.2. The detailed risk assessments are contained in Sections 6.1 to 6.5.

Table 5.2 Distribution of Risk Level by Asset Type

As part of the subsequent risk analysis, consideration was given to the asset life. Each asset within VicRoads has a designed or expected life which varies greatly depending on the type of asset. For example electrical Intelligent Transport System (ITS) assets have a design life of ten year or less, whereas some structural assets have a design life of 100 years or more. Figure 5.1 shows the range of design life for different asset categories; for example structures are expected to last 30 to 100 years, while concrete stormwater drainage has a life of 80-100 years. The diagrammatic representation of the assets also shows that in the case of assets like ITS with a short life, there is plenty of time to implement modification to asset specifications to cope with climate change impacts and as such, based on current climate change projections adaptation for ITS assets does not need to be considered until around the year 2050. By comparison, for longer lived asset types like drainage, adaptation actions will need to commence within the next fifteen years to ensure these actions are effective in managing risk.

Asset TypeSignificant Risks (#)

Important Risks (#)

Insignificant Risks (#)

Positive Benefits (#)

Road Pavements 1 1 3 1

Road Surfacing Layers 2 2 1 -

Drainage 1 2 2 -

Roadsides - 3 2 -

Structures 1 1 3 -

ITS/Electrical Assets 1 3 1 -

VicRoads Activities 1 3 1 4

Total 7 15 13 5


ITS

Years

Road surfacing

Roadsides - landscaping

Roadsides- remnant/vegetation

Road Structural Component

20 40 60 80 100 120

Drainage

Structures

The number of yearsbefore adaptation wouldneed to start or occur

Legend

The expected or design life of an asset class

Figure 5.3 Design Life of Different VicRoads Asset Categories.(Adapted from (UK Highways Agency, 2011))

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6. Detailed Risk AssessmentMore detailed information on projected changes to climate parameters was used to assist in the detailed assessment of risks, with this being used to inform the prioritisation of a number of these risks.

All descriptions are described in terms of how they affect road infrastructure, relative to the period 1980-1999 (referred to as the 1990 baseline for convenience).

The 50th percentile (the mid-point of the spread of model results) provides a best estimate result. The 10th and 90th percentiles (lowest 10% and highest 10% of the spread of model results) provide a range of uncertainty.

All CSIRO sourced data is produced with permission from CSIRO Australia.

6.1 Sea Level Risk

Of all the climate change parameters, sea level rise is likely to have the greatest impact on the performance of the road network. A summary of the risks posed to infrastructure types by sea level rise is summarised in Table 6.1. Even though these impacts are limited to road assets in lower-lying coastal regions in the majority of cases, the consequences are significant because many of the affected roads in these regions form vital transport and accessibility links on the main road network.

The Victorian Planning Provisions Section 10 requires an allowance for possible sea level rise. This is 0.2 m by 2040 for urban infill projects and 0.8m by 2100 for coastal projects (Victorian Planning Provisions Section 10 Clause 13, 2014). Figure 6.1 shows a timeline of sea level rise impacts for the IPCC AR4 and IPCC AR5 projections as well as the likely timeframe required to adequately adapt to sea level rise. For example, if the predicted level of impact associated with a 0.2m sea level rise was to occur at the earliest predicted timeframe i.e. 2034, then investigation of adaptation measures should commence for this by 2024 to ensure adequate time for project planning, funding and implementation. It is also worth noting that if sea level rise continues at its current rate, then 0.2 m or sea level rise will occur by 2060.

Figure 6.1: Comparison of IPCC AR4 and AR5 Sea Level Rise Projections and Time Implications for Adaptation

2014 2020 20402030 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Background planning and detailed modelling (2 years)

Business cases (4 years)

Detailed design (2 years)

Construction (2 years)

0.2m 0.47m 0.82m

Background planning and detailed modelling (2 years)

Business cases (4 years)

Detailed design (2 years)

Construction (2 years)

Range for 0.2m SLR Range for 0.47m SLR

Sea Level Rise

(2013 data) IPCC ARS RCP 8.5 scenario

(2007 data) IPCC AR4 A1FI scenario


Table 6.1: Summary of Sea Level Rise Related Risks to Infrastructure Types

Figure 6.1: Comparison of IPCC AR4 and AR5 Sea Level Rise Projections and Time Implications for Adaptation

Consequences Actions Risk

Road Surfacing Sea Level Rise may result in mechanical damage to road surfaces through wave action or storm surge. This potential will be limited to locations where sea level rises sufficiently to inundate the road pavement. The ingress of salt into road pavement material below the road surface due to higher sea levels has the potential to cause de-lamination of the road surfacing. However, this is a very rare occurrence.

Investigate need to construct protective measures. Consult with state and local government over options to rebuild or realign affected routes clear of tide and storm surge levels.

Significant

Pavement Structure Sea Level Rise may result in mechanical damage such as scour or erosion to road pavements as a result of wave action or storm surge. This potential will be limited to locations where sea level rises sufficiently to reach the road pavement

Drainage One of the early impacts of sea level rise may be the reduced capacity of coastal or low lying drainage networks with submerged outfalls. This will increase the likelihood of flooding during rain events, especially at high tide times. This risk is likely to become apparent well before the risks associated with the overtopping of road pavements

Structures Overtopping by sea water, especially of embankments and approaches may pose a problem in some areas. - Scour due to storm surge could cause instability and failure for structures like bridges, culverts and retaining walls - Changes in salinity of groundwater, and the height of the tidal zone may increase the risk of corrosion in some coastal areas.

Operations Planning of new infrastructure and approval of local government development proposals will need to take account of changes to the road network associated with sea level rise. Many of these decisions may involve multiple agencies, or may be dependent on strategies to be developed by or in conjunction with third parties. Experience has shown that these issues may take many years to resolve.

ITS/Electrical Assets Some cables and signal and lighting hardware may be affected, particularly in urban areas.

There are no significant risks to ITS assets from sea level rise as no ITS assets are located close to the coast.

No action required at this stage

Insignificant

Roadsides Sea Level Rise may result in mechanical damage to roadside assets including signs and safety barriers. Vegetation management may also be impacted by rising water table, increasing salt levels, and inundation.

Roadsides will be managed by VicRoads as part of the overall sea level rise risk, as it is required within the road network.

No action required at this stage

Important

22

The expected sea level rise and storm surge impacts expected in Victoria are described in Table 4.1. Table 6.2 and Table 6.3 show VicRoads analysis of the estimated impact of storm surge and sea level rise on the Victorian main road network. They are based on analysis by VicRoads using the Victorian Coastal Inundation Dataset (DEPI b, 2013) and as such are a conservative estimate.

The impacts are likely to be the highest in the Eastern Region, accounting for approximately half of all projected impacts. This includes a number of Gippsland regional locations such as Lakes Entrance, Tooradin and near Tarwin Lower.

Urban areas likely to be impacted include Williamstown, St Kilda, Elwood and Edithvale. There is also projected impact to locations such as Queenscliff and the Great Ocean Road.

Based on the projections of 0.82m of sea level rise, it is estimated that inundation would impact 26 roads, directly affecting around 14 kilometres in carriageway length. An additional ten kilometres of roads are likely to have impact to subgrades and batters at this time, as well as damage to other assets in the vicinity.

Table 6.2: Estimated Sea Level Rise Impacts on Main Roads by Region

VicRoads 0.2m Sea level rise 0.47m Sea level rise 0.82m Sea level rise

Eastern Region 0.0 2.5 6.8

Metro South East 0.2 0.5 1.2

Metro North West 0.0 0 2.1

South Western Region 1.0 1.8 3.7

TOTAL km 1.2 (5 roads) 4.8 (12 roads) 13.8 (26 roads)

Although the impacts of inundation due to rising sea levels may not become obvious for many decades, other adverse impacts may be experienced much earlier, in fact a number of locations already experience storm surges impacts, resulting in periodic road closures or traffic hazard speed reductions. There are also locations along the Great Ocean Road, such as Port Campbell where the road has been realigned to address existing coastal erosion risks.

Storm surge is also likely to increase from the current 1.0 to 2.1 m to 1.6 to 2.7 m by 2070, with the highest surges predicted between Lorne and Loch Sport (Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2012). The impact of storm surges is also predicted to increase, with sea level rise. Based on the projections of 0.8 m of sea level rise it is estimated that 62 roads, with 89.6 kilometre length would be impacted by 1 in 100 year storm events. The impacts of sea level rise and storm surge are not uniform across the Victorian Coast.

Table 6.3: Estimated Storm Surge Impacts on Main Roads by Region

VicRoads 0.2m Sea level rise 0.47m Sea level rise 0.82m Sea level rise

Eastern Region 17.3 31.2 44.9

Metro South East 1.3 4.4 11.2

Metro North West 0.5 3.2 19.8

South Western Region 3.9 6.7 13.6

TOTAL km 23.0 (30 roads) 45.6 (42 roads) 89.6 (62 roads)


It is also predicted that sea level rise will lead to erosion of new sections of coastline and this will lead over time to collapse of infrastructure in susceptible locations. Erosion is also predicted to undermine over two kilometres of the Great Ocean Road by 2040 and 13 kilometres by 2100 (SKM, 2012). Table 6.4 shows the composition of the Victorian coastline, which is heterogeneous, with the western part of the state having more rocky coastlines,

Westernport Bay being muddy, and becoming sandier towards the east of the state. Some of the specific coastal areas predicted to be impacted are also listed in Table 6.5 and underline the need to consider the particular nature of the coastal geology when determining adaptation response.

Based on OzCoasts Data (OzCoasts, 2013) # Sourced from (Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2012)

Table 6.4: Victorian Coastline Type by Regional Area

Based on OzCoasts data (OzCoasts, 2013)

# V

icto

rian

C

oas

tlin

e

Wes

t o

f Cap

e O

tway

Cap

e O

tway

to

To

rqu

ay

Torq

uay

to

W

este

rnp

ort

Wes

tern

po

rt t

o

Lake

s En

tran

ce

East

of L

akes

En

tran

ce

Rocky Coasts

Hard rock cliffs 22% 39% 17% 6% 15% 16%

Soft rock cliffs 6% 26% 18% 8% 0% 4%

Sandy shores backed by soft sediment

30% 1% 10% 46% 18% 59%

Sandy and Muddy Coasts

Sandy coast/ shores backed by rock

21% 34% 55% 30% 10% 21%

Muddy Sedimentary shores (e.g. tidal flats)

22% 0% 0% 10% 57% 0%

Table 6.5: Coastline Compositions at Locations Projected to be Impacted by Sea Level Rise

Pet

erb

oro

ug

h

Ap

ollo

Bay

Sken

es C

reek

Ken

net

t R

iver

Wye

Riv

er

An

gel

sea

Bar

wo

n H

ead

s

Qu

een

scliff

Inve

rlo

ch –

V

enu

s B

ay R

oad

Rocky Coasts

Hard rock cliffs0% 0% 0% 36% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Soft rock cliffs33% 8% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Sandy shores backed by soft sediment 53% 48% 71% 2% 4% 21% 100% 94% 86%

Sandy and Muddy Coasts

Sandy coast/ shores backed by rock 14% 44% 24% 62% 88% 79% 0% 6% 13%

Muddy Sedimentary shores (e.g. tidal flats) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

24

The cost impact of storm surge events would be expected to rise as greater lengths of road are impacted by storm surge events. Within the Great Ocean Road an additional 13.8km of road length would be susceptible to 1 in 100 year storm surge events (SKM, 2012). These events would also affect other co-located roadside assets such as batters with geotechnical risk, structures, vegetation and fencing.

Many VicRoads drainage networks discharge into drainage systems managed by local government or other government agencies. As such, the infrastructure likely to be damaged by flooding of the road drainage system includes infrastructure other than roads with buildings, agricultural land and commercial and industrial developments close to coastal areas also under threat. At many locations, VicRoads will not be able to take independent action to address this issue and it will require a coordinated approach to determine the most efficient solutions involving all interested parties.

6.2 Temperature

A summary of the risks posed to Infrastructure types from rainfall is shown in Table 6.6. This is based on an assessment of information on rainfall volumes, intensity, humidity and evapotranspiration shown in Table 4.1, and supported by the additional analysis below.

Average temperatures in Victoria are predicted to rise by between 1.5 and 2 °C on average across the state by 2030 and by 3 and 5 °C on average across the state by 2070 at the 90th percentile. There will also be a corresponding increase in warm days. These are based on CSIRO modelling, shown in Table 4.1, and represent the worst case scenario.

It is also expected that hot spells (a period a 3 to 5 consecutive days where the temperature exceeds 35 oC) will double from 1 to 2 by 2070. Night time temperatures in Australia are expected to rise with warm nights (>21 °C) projected to increase between 15-50 per cent at the end of the 21st Century (Maunsell, 2008), as shown in Table 4.1.

Table 6.6 : Summary of Temperature Related Risks to Infrastructure Types


Road Surfacing Greater potential for damage under heavy wheel loads. No action required at this stage

Important

Pavement Structure No significant consequences No action required Insignificant

Drainage No significant consequences No action required Insignificant

Roadsides Combined with lower rainfall will result in the loss of many plant species and less vigorous growth of many of the survivors. This could result in greater erosion, landslips, increased fire risk, issues with management of pest plants and animals, loss of landscape amenity.

Investigate vulnerable species, locations. Possible alternative plantings at key locations.

Significant

Structures No significant consequences No action required Insignificant

ITS/Electrical Assets Extended high temperatures may have an adverse impact on the operation of some electrical equipment, such as components in traffic control cabinets or LED’s used in traffic and street lighting.

No action required at this stage.

Important

Operations Heat Stress may become a major health issue especially in inner urban areas with the urban heat island effect playing a major role. OH&S provision for Field workers may require change. Maintenance timeframes may decrease due to the impact on assets such as LED’s in street and traffic lighting.

Investigate possible actions to ameliorate urban heat island effect and the contribution of roads to this.

Important

Extended season for temperature sensitive works such as laying bitumen/asphalt


Positive

Decreased risk of black ice on roads No action required Positive


6.3 Rainfall

A summary of the risks posed to Infrastructure types from rainfall is shown in Table 6.7. This is based on an assessment of information on rainfall volumes, intensity, humidity and evapotranspiration shown in Table 4.1, and supported by the additional analysis below.

Table 4.1 shows there may be less annual rainfall volume, but rainfall events are likely to be become more intense with a higher risk of localised and widespread flooding. Extreme rainfall events will also become 30% more intense by 2030. In this timeframe it is anticipated that the extent of flooding will be 25% larger for 1 in 5 year events and 15% larger for 1 in 100 year events in Melbourne urban catchments. It is also suggested that the frequency of a current 1 in 100 year rainfall event will double (Pedruco & Watkinson, 2010).

Annual rainfall volume is likely to decrease in Victoria. It is predicted to decrease by 0.2 to 0.5% by 2030 and by 10 to 20% by 2070 for the 50th percentile based on CSIRO modelling, as shown in Table 4.1.

However, for the worst case scenario is represented by the based 10th and 90th percentile of data the rainfall volume will be somewhere between a 20% increase and a 40% decrease, with the forecast increases in the 90th percentile largely falling within existing design parameters..

Overall rainfall intensity will increase by about 1% in Victoria by 2030 and about 6.5% by 2070 relative to a 1990 baseline as shown in Table 6.8. The number of rainy days will decrease by about 5% by 2030 and about 17% by 2070 relative to a 1990 baseline as shown in Table 6.9.

Humidity levels are forecast to reduce slightly, with a less than a five percent decrease by 2070 at the 10th percentile, based on CSIRO modelling and shown in Table 4.1. This represents the worst case scenario.

Evapotranspiration levels are predicted to increase with a greater than 16% change by 2070 at the 90th percentile, based on CSIRO modelling and shown in Table 4.1. This is projected to result in an increased movement of water to the atmosphere from both water bodies and from vegetation, and represents the worst case scenario.

Table 6.7: Summary of Rainfall Related Risks to Infrastructure Types


Road Surfacing No significant consequences No action required Insignificant

Pavement Structure More intense rainfall patterns could result in ponding of water at some locations, with the possibility of pavements being weakened in local areas. If the increased intensity of rainfall events result in ponding of surface water adjacent to pavements, this could result in increased rates of pavement deterioration at the locations where the ponding occurs. In most instances, good drainage maintenance practice would reduce this issue from occurring.

Attention to maintenance of drainage systems in vulnerable areas.

Insignificant

Overall drier conditions will result in longer pavement life. No action required Positive

Drainage More intense rainfall could result in localised flooding, damage due to scour, less safe running conditions for traffic during rainstorms on wide flat pavements.

Investigate locations of vulnerability, possible protective measures, traffic management measures

Important

Roadsides Combined with higher temperature will result in the loss of many plant species and less vigorous growth of many of the survivors. This could result in greater erosion, landslips, increased fire risk, issues with management of pest plants and animals, loss of landscape amenity.

Investigate vulnerable species, locations. Possible alternative plantings at key locations.

Important

Structures More intense rainfall could result in localised flooding, damage due to scour, less safe running conditions for traffic during rainstorms on wide flat pavements.

Investigate locations of vulnerability, possible protective measures, traffic management measures

Insignificant

ITS/Electrical Assets No significant consequences No action required Insignificant

Operations Less natural water available for maintenance and construction Possible need to harvest rainfall runoff from road.


Important

Fewer rain related delays to construction and maintenance works. No action required Positive

26

Source Regional Climate Change Projection Publications by Region (DSE a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h,I,j, 2008)

Table 6.8: Summary of Projected Rainfall Intensity Changes

Rainfall Intensity (%) [10th to 90th percentile]

Region Location 2030 Medium 2070 low 2070 high

Port Phillip and Westernport Melbourne 0.9 [-7.7 to 15.2] 3 [-12.9 to 25.3] 5.9 [-24.9 to 48.9]

Scoresby 0.8 [-7.7 to 14.8] 2.6 [-12.8 to 24.7] 5 [-24.7 to 47.7]

Cape Schanck 0.7 [-9.7 to 14.9] 2.3 [-16.2 to 24.8] 4.5 [-31.4 to 47.9]

Corangamite Ballarat 1.5 [-10.5 to 15.8] 5 [-17.4 to 26.4] 9.6 [-33.7 to 51]

Lismore 1.3 [-10.3 to 15.6] 4.5 [-17.1 to 26.1] 8.6 [-33.1 to 50.4]

Glenelg Hopkins Ararat 1.1 [-6.8 to 15.8] 3.6 [-11.3 to 26.4] 6.9 [-21.8 to 51]

Hamilton 1.5 [-7.3 to 15.5] 5 [-12.1 to 25.9] 9.7 [-23.4 to 50]

Warrnambool 3.1 [-10.2 to 16] 5.2 [-17 to 26.7] 10.2 [-32.8 to 51.5]

Wimmera Horsham 0.6 [-8.8 to 14.8] 2.1 [-14.7 to 24.7] 4 [-28.4 to 47.7]

Mallee Mildura -0.3 [-11.1 to 16.1] -1.1 [-18.5 to 26.8] -2 [-35.7 to 51.8]

Ouyen -0.3 [-9.6 to 15.6] -1.1 [-16 to 25.9] -2.1 [-31 to 50.2]

North Central Donald 0.6 [-11.2 to 15.2] 2 [-18.7 to 25.4] 3.9 [-36.2 to 49.1]

Bendigo 1.1 [-7.2 to 15.9] 3.6 [-12.0 to 26.6] 6.9 [-23.3 to 51.4]

Swan Hill 0.6 [-8.5 to 15.3] 1.9 [-14.2 to 25.5] 3.6 [-27.4 to 49.3]

Goulburn Broken Tatura 0.8 [-7.1 to 14.6] 2.8 [-11.9 to 24.4] 5.3 [-23 to 47.1]

Benalla 0.9 [-9.0 to 13.5] 3.2 [-15.0 to 22.4] 6.1 [-29 to 43.4]

Mangalore 1.2 [-7.1 to 15.1] 3.8 [-11.9 to 25.2] 7.4 [-22.9 to 48.7]

North East Beechworth 1.4 [-10.1 to 14.4] 4.8 [-16.8 to +24.0] 9.2 [-32.4 to +46.3]

Rutherglen 1.5 [-9.8 to 14.4] 5.1 [-16.4 to +24.0] 9.9 [-31.7 to 46.4]

Omeo 2.1 [-8.6 to 17.5] 7 [-14.3 to 29.2] 13.6 [-27.7 to 56.4]

East Gippsland Orbost 1.0 [-7.4 to +19.2] 3.2 [-12.3 to 32.0] 6.2 [-23.8 to 61.8]

Lakes Entrance 1.5 [-7.7 to +18.4] 4.9 [-12.8 to 30.7] 9.5 [-24.7 to 59.4]

West Gippsland Wonthaggi 0.4 [-7.7 to 14.3] 1.4 [-12.8 to 23.8] 2.7 [-24.8 to 46.0]

Sale 1.5 [-5.3 to 16.6] 4.9 [-8.8 to 27.7] 9.4 [-17.0 to 53.5]


Source Regional Climate Change Projection Publications by Region (DSE, a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h,I,j, 2008)

Table 6.9: Summary of Projected Changes to the Number of Rainy Days

Rainfall Intensity (%) [10th to 90th percentile]

Region Location 2030 Medium 2070 low 2070 high

Port Phillip and Westernport Melbourne -6 [-17 to -1] -10 [-28 to -2] -19 [-54 to -4]

Scoresby -6 [-16 to -1] -10 [-26 to -2] -19 [-51 to -4]

Cape Schanck -6 [-13 to -1] -10 [-22 to -2] -19 [-43 to 5]

Corangamite Ballarat -5 [-17 to -1] -9 [-28 to -2] -18 [-54 to -5]

Lismore -5 -[15 to -2] ‘-9 [-25 to -3] -17 -[48 to -5]

Glenelg Hopkins Ararat -6 [-13 to -1] -10 [-22 to -2] -18 [-43 to -5]

Hamilton -5 [-17 to -2] -8 [-28 to -3] -16 [-54 to -5]

Warrnambool -5 [-17 to -1] -9 [-29 to -2] -18 [-56 to -4]

Wimmera Horsham -6 [-19 to -1] -10 [-31 to -2] -19 [-61 to -4]

Mallee Mildura -6 [-21 to 0] -10 [-35 to 1] -19 [-68 to 2]

Ouyen -7 [-20 to -1] -11 [-33 to -1] -21 [-64 to -2]

North Central Swan Hill -6 [-20 to -1] -10 [-34 to -1] -18 [-66 to -2]

Donald -6 [-18 to -1] -9 [-31 to -2] -18 [-83 to -6]

Bendigo -5 [-17 to -1] -8 [-29 to -2] -16 [-56 to -4]

Goulburn Broken Tatura -5 [-17 to -1] -9 [-29 to -2] -17 [-56 to -3]

Benalla -5 [-18 to -1] -8 [-30 to -2] -16 [-57 to -3]

Mangalore -5 [-17 to -1] -8 [-29 to -2] -16 [-56 to -4]

North East Rutherglen -5 [-18 to -1] -8 [-30 to -2] -16 [-57 to -3]

Beechworth -5 [-18 to -1] -8 [-28 to -2] -16 [-57 to -3]

Omeo -5 [-17 to -1] -8 [-28 to -2] -15 [-54 to -3]

East Gippsland Orbost -5 [-16 to -1] -8 [-26 to -1] -15 [-51 to -2]

Lakes Entrance -5 [-16 to -1] -8 [-26 to -1] -15 [-51 to -3]

West Gippsland Wonthaggi -5 [-14 to -1] -9 [-23 to -2] -18 [-44 to -5]

Sale -5 [-13 to -1] -8 [-21 to -2] -16 [-41 to -2]

28

6.4 Extreme Weather Events

A summary of the risks to VicRoads infrastructure from extreme weather is shown in Table 6.10, based on wind speed, fire risk and changes to rainfall intensity. This section considers rainfall relating to extreme events as discussed in section 6.3.

Wind speed analysis is based on CSIRO modelling (CSIRO, 2007 a), in Table 4.1. This shows an increase in wind speeds measured 10 metres above the ground of up to five percent by 2030 and ten to 15 percent by 2070 at the 90th percentile, and represents the worst case scenario.

The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is predicted to increase, and this will result in a likelihood of more fire events across Victoria. Table 6.11 shows high and extreme fire risk days and Table 6.12 shows only extreme fire risk days, and both predict an increase in risks through to 2070. For example, in Bendigo the number of days experiencing high or extreme fire weather is predicted to increase from 14 days to 19 days annually by 2020 and 29 by 2050 in a worst case scenario, and the number of extreme fire risk days is predicted to increase to between 1.5 and 2 by 2020 and 1.6 and 4 by 2050.

Table 6.10: Summary of Extreme Weather Related Risks to Infrastructure Types


Road Surfacing Increased bushfires and flood may cause more frequent and more extensive damage to road surfaces

Investigate locations of vulnerability, possible protective measures, and flood flow management measures.

Important

Pavement Structure Greater likelihood of widespread flooding could result in pavement damage and long term reduction of life for affected pavements.

Drainage Greater likelihood of widespread flooding could result in damage to drainage systems.

Roadsides Greater likelihood of bushfires, floods and storms will cause difficult conditions for many plants and animals.

Structures Greater likelihood of widespread flooding and storms could result in damage to structures and their footings.

ITS/Electrical Assets Greater reliance on traffic management systems to reduce congestion, ensure smooth traffic flow especially during extreme weather and emergency management events

Investigate potential locations for installation of uninterrupted power supply

Important

Operations Greater pressure on emergency response resources. No action required at this stage.

Important

Decreased operational impacts of black ice and snow on roads

No action required Positive

Table 6.11: Summary of Projected High and Extreme Fire Days (CSIRO, 2007 b)

Location Present (1973 – 2007) 2020 2050

Melbourne Airport 14.8 15.7 to 18.6 16.2 to 23.6

Mildura 56.6 59.5 to 66.9 62.3 to 90.5

Laverton 11.8 12 to 13.6 12.4 to 19.2

Bendigo 13.9 15.6 to 18.4 16.6 to 28.6

Sale 5.4 5.4 to 7.1 5.7 to 11.1


Table 6.12: Summary of Projected Extreme Fire Days (CSIRO, 2007 b)

Location Present (1973 – 2007) 2020 2050

Melbourne Airport 2.5 2.8-3.4 3 to 5.8

Mildura 7.3 8.0 to 10.0 8.6 to 15.9

Laverton 1.9 1.9 to 2.6 2.2 to 4.6

Bendigo 1.2 1.5 to 2.0 1.6 to 4.0

Sale 0.6 0.6 to 0.9 0.6 to 1.9

6.5 UV Level

A summary of the Risks by Asset types is shown in Table 6.13. This is supported by the prediction that downward solar radiation will increase by two percent by 2030 and by ten percent by 2070 at the 90th percentile, based on CSIRO modelling, shown in Table 4.1.

This represents the worst case scenario. By 2070 UV is predicted to be more like that currently experienced by Sydney based on data from BOM (BOM) and CSIRO (CSIRO, 2007 a) with an increase from 6 to 6.3.

Table 6.13: Summary of Radiation Risks by Asset Type


Road Surfacing Increased radiation will accelerate the rate at which bituminous surfaces became brittle due to oxidation, thus requiring more frequent resurfacing.

Investigate most efficient way to manage surface materials to adapt to future UV levels.

Significant

Pavement Structure No significant consequences No action required. Insignificant

Drainage More intense rainfall could result in localised flooding, damage due to scour, less safe running conditions for traffic during rainstorms on wide flat pavements.

No action required. Insignificant

Roadsides Higher levels of UV radiation may cause more rapid deterioration of items such as plastics materials used in road furniture, and the reflective faces of signs


Important

Structures No significant consequences No action required. Insignificant

ITS/Electrical Assets Some plastic or perspex housings or casing may require replacement or redesign.


Important

Operations No significant consequences No action required. Insignificant

30

6.6 Prioritising Risks

In order to better focus VicRoads actions these identified risks have been prioritised, on the basis of the assessed level of risk, the design life of the assets and also the estimated time until changes in climate would impact on the assets performance in the road network (refer Table 6.14). All significant risks have been identified as priorities. In addition, whilst the impact on drainage was assessed as “important”, it has also been classified as a prioritised risk because the stormwater drainage is an asset with a long design life and the impacts are likely to be experienced in the short to medium term. Another example is the impact on roadsides impacted by storm surge and sea level rise. This was assessed as “important”, but has been prioritised as it is an integral part of the road network in areas caused by sea level rise.

Of all the risks assessed only sea level rise and elements of rainfall, radiation and temperature were considered to be significant risks to the road network. Changes in projected climatic parameters will, however, also have benefits for the road network, such as:

z a decreased likelihood of black ice on Victorian roads through increased average overnight temperatures

z less operational impacts to the road network from snow, which will also result in less salt impact to the local environment

z a likely increase in the life of the structural pavement component of the road due to higher temperatures and decreased humidity levels leading to drier subgrades and pavement structural layers

z a decrease in the annual rainfall (particularly in Spring) will lengthen the available road sealing season, as well as the annual road construction window. However, this is likely to be offset by construction disruption from increased summer temperatures and heatwaves

z a possible decrease in the amount of contingency in contracts for inclement weather.

Nonetheless, all risks will continue to be monitored and assessed as new information and asset monitoring data becomes available.


Derived from (UK Highways Agency, 2011)

Table 6.14 Summary of Prioritised Risks and the Impacts of Climate Change on Assets and Customers

Climate Parameter Asset Type Impact on Asset Impact on Road User

Sea Level Rise Road Pavement

Road Surfacing Layers

Drainage

Roadside

Structures

ITS/Electrical Assets

VicRoads Activities

Higher impact from storm surges and permanent inundation of coastal road assets including pavements.

Potential for widespread damage to all road infrastructure including pavements and structures, due to rising sea levels, resulting in flooding and road closures. Flooding may also occur during rain storms in areas where drainage efficiency is affected by reduced fall to outlet.

Reduced availability due to road closures from storm surge events and sea level rise.

Rainfall Drainage Increased incidence of intense rainfall could result in localised flooding, increased stress on drainage systems, damage due to scour, less safe running conditions for traffic during rainstorms on wide flat pavements. In addition to localised scouring of roadsides and bridge structures this would increase the risk of landslides.

Increased risk of aquaplaning especially on wide flat surfaces and localised network operational issues due to flooding.

The decrease in annual rainfall and rainy days combined with increased temperatures and increased evapotranspiration will lead to degraded roadsides especially remnant and landscaped roadsides. This is turn will lead to increased incidence of weeds and other invasion species.

Decreased amenity of the journey whilst improving driving conditions.

Radiation Road Surfacing Layers The increased level of UV could contribute to the increased rate of pavement oxidation and result in a shorter expected life of the pavement surface, especially for a spray seal surface. Potential for increased maintenance costs

Reduced availability due to increased road closure for maintenance.

Temperature Roadsides Increased in average temperature will lead to reduction in black ice incident and snowfall but would lead to a decrease in the life of some electrical assets, particularly LED lights.

Increase in frequency of warm nights will increase heat retention further exacerbating the heat island effect. Increase in frequency of very hot days and lower rainfall will result in the loss of many plant species and less vigorous growth of many of the plant survivors. This could result in greater erosion, landslips, increased fire risk, issues with management of pest plants and animals and loss of landscape amenity.

It will also increase the stress on expansion joints on bridges and lead to softening and deformation of spray seal roads

Decreased accidents from poor driving conditions. Improved travel times.

Reduced availability due to road closures for maintenance.

Decreased amenity of the journey.

32

7. Developing Adaptation Responses

Whilst specific adaptation responses will be progressively developed, an amount of research and discussion has already occurred regarding possible approaches to adaptation and these are discussed in more detail below. In addition, it is recognised that a key component of adaptation includes the “soft systems” such as the ability to generate, access and interpret information about climate change and its likely impacts; suitable methods for identifying and assessing potential adaptation strategies; appropriately skilled people; adequate financial resources; strategic planning and governance systems that will embrace adaptation planning; and above all, a willingness to adapt.

As such, inter-disciplinary and inter-agency studies will be important requiring engagement with all stakeholders in order to build resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change.

7.1 Sea Level Rise

Given the discussion in section 6.1, it is clear sea level rise will affect all asset types in those locations impacted. In some instances, it may be possible to rebuild affected roads, within the current reserve, at a higher level, and where this is not possible, other adaptation responses will be necessary. An example of this would be realigning the road further from the coast. However, this would be a significant undertaking with potential for significant impacts on local communities, other infrastructure and cultural and biodiversity values as a minimum, with significant implications for some land owners and developers.

Infrastructure associated with housing, industry and agriculture is also likely to be affected by sea level rise and therefore any change to road infrastructure will need to be considered in association with other related industries and activities.

Sections of the South Gippsland Highway along the north end of Westernport Bay between Tooradin and Koo Wee Rup have been identified as being at risk of inundation and sea level rise within 50 years. This road is a major tourist route, important regional access arterial and major transport route. Some of the properties and local agriculture served by this road may need to be relocated to higher ground. The highway itself could be raised in situ, but the most appropriate route for a flood proof facility may involve the development of a new road on a new alignment, in coordination with the relocation of other community infrastructure and industrial/commercial/agricultural activity.

Sea level rise will also need to be taken into account in the planning of new residential and infrastructure developments in coastal areas. Consideration of sea level rise is already affecting the conditions imposed on approved development proposals for both new and existing coastal properties. As a potential referral authority as well as a proponent, a documented rational approach showing how climate change risk such as sea level rise is being considered and managed on the main road network will aid decision making across Government.

Early estimates of the costs of responding to sea level rise through relocation of road assets indicate significant expenditure over multiple years will be required based on a 0.8 m sea level rise. This is based on currently available data sources and needs refining at an early stage to be able to provide advice to government of the risks of sea level rise.

Consultative links need to be developed with relevant government departments, local government and agencies to ensure the response to sea level rise is rational and consistent and able to be managed appropriately, including information to affected sections of the community.

The effects of sea level rise will initially be exhibited through local drainage issues and coastal erosion. Accordingly, investigation of sites vulnerable to these issues should have a high priority for investigation. However, investigation of long term effects will also need to be completed before an appropriate assessment can be made of the most cost-effective economic solution.


Summary of Sea Level Rise Actions

A number of actions will need further investigation including;

§ confirming the projected sea level rise and storm surge impacts through ongoing review and consultation

§ confirming cost estimates for predicted impacts

§ developing special bridge standards for flood prone areas

§ identifying appropriate protective measures and situations where they should be considered

§ consulting with State government departments, catchment authorities and local government regarding the options for rebuilding or realigning affected routes to protect for sea level rise and projected storm surge

§ undertaking a case study to gain further insights into climate adaptation.

Edithvale Road has been identified as a location at risk of sea level rise and storm surge. Given it is a well established location with assets belonging to Melbourne Water, Kingston Council and VicRoads, it is being developed as a case study of how adaptation can work with multiple stakeholders. The case study will identify what adaptation would best suit the locations and stakeholder needs. It will also aim to examine the likely timeframes for adaptation in this location. The figure below shows the projected extent of sea level rise based on DEPI Future Coasts projections to 2100, with storm surge impacting the area more widely.

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7.2 Temperature

Vegetation has been shown to have strong links to the community’s sense of place (Kendall, 2011). Plane trees are an example of this in the City of Melbourne and are currently one of the most prominent tree types (City of Melbourne, 2015). They are also susceptible to leaf burn on hot days (Nicholson, 2014), which can lead to distress and in some cases tree death. A number of roadsides and established urban tree species across Victoria were adversely impacted by the Millennium drought, however, it is understood that soil, water availability, microclimate and topography will also influence vegetation health. Broadleaf deciduous trees may be less successful in future climates than narrow leaved, evergreen trees which may be at less risk (Kendal & McDonnell, 2014). Other species, such as golden wattle, are less susceptible as they have vertically oriented phyllodes, which minimise the amount of direct sun exposure (Australian Plants Society, 2011).

To assist in better identifying and quantifying areas of risk, VicRoads will investigate species likely to be at risk, as well as identifying replacement species that are better suited to expected future climate characteristics in roadsides. This will include locations with existing geotechnical risks, particularly if the existing vegetation is susceptible to climatic changes, where a lack of action may cause an increase in the risks of landslip.

The urban heat island effect is a temperature related impact on the public in areas with significant amounts of built infrastructure. Asphalt roads contribute to the effect through both their dark colour and the tonnages of materials within the constructed roads and this is expected to be exacerbated by increases in night time temperatures. Further work will be undertaken to understand the specific contribution of the main road network to the urban heat island effect and develop responses as appropriate.

Summary of Temperature Responses


§ determining ‘at risk’ species through literature, monitoring and anecdotal sources

§ determining options for replacement of vegetation species on roadsides, which are better suited to the expected climate

§ investigating opportunities for increasing soil water availability including the use of stormwater in watering roadside vegetation

§ ensuring data relating to the location and frequency of road closures due to temperature softening of pavements is captured

§ investigating the relationships between landslips and the vegetation condition of roadsides

§ investigating the contribution of the main road network and urban vegetation to the urban heat island effect and options for mitigation


7.3 Rainfall

Updated rainfall intensity, frequency, duration (IFD) projection data has now been released as part of a larger rainfall and intensity project undertaken by the Bureau of Meteorology. The updated IFD data now includes information from 1983 to 2012 in its dataset, as well as addition stations measuring rainfall.

Figure 7.1 displays an estimation of the percentage change when comparing this revised data to the existing IFD data for the typical road drainage design event (10% AEP of 10 minute duration). The main observation is a 10-20% increase in the intensity across the south eastern suburbs for this type of event.

One of the asset types likely to be impacted by more intense rainfall events is pavements, particularly wide flat pavements and roads with narrow shoulders. In most cases, it is not practicable to alter existing pavements (such as increasing crossfall) to reduce the likelihood of a flow depth that could lead to aquaplaning conditions; nor is it generally practicable to alter the flow capacity of shoulders and kerbing. Consideration may instead be given to applying lower speed limits, temporarily closing lanes and/or warning signs during heavy rain conditions, with the aim of altering driver behaviour in the long term.

The other asset types likely to be impacted by changes in rainfall intensity and volume are the underground drainage systems, and structures with pumped drainage. This means there will be an increased importance on the maintenance of existing assets to ensure the efficient operation of underground drainage systems.

Summary of Rainfall Responses


§ reviewing the updated IFD information once released and determine implications for road design and site management during construction

§ developing technologies which allow automatic detection and communication of flooding on managed motorways

§ investigating options to decrease the potential for aquaplaning at locations identified as being at risk

§ ensuring operational personnel are aware of the likely changes in rainfall intensity and the importance of ensuring drain cleaning is consistently undertaken

Figure 7.1 Estimated Changes in Rainfall Intensity for Typical VicRoads Drainage Source from Bureau of Meteorology

Percent Change: 10min, 10% AEP (estimated)

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7.4 UV Level

Increased UV radiation will accelerate the rate at which bituminous surfaces became brittle due to oxidation, thus requiring more frequent resurfacing. VicRoads will investigate whether or not the use of alternative bitumen products such as polymer modified binders will improve the whole of life effectiveness. Increased UV levels will also have impacts on the design life of assets such as perspex noise wall panels, roadside furniture and reflective coatings on signage.

Summary of UV Responses


§ the use of polymer modified binders as a cost effective treatment in road surfacing applications in specific locations

§ establishing systems to collect performance data to assess any changes in condition of perspex noise panels or spray seals, which might indicate a shortening of their life

7.5 Long Term Asset Responses

Whilst there are forecast impacts to different asset classes through time, the appropriate approach is primarily guided by the likely lifespan of the assets. For assets with short life spans (e.g. ITS), or periodic replacement requirements (e.g. pavement surfacing) adaptation measures will be implemented as a running change at an appropriate point in time. However, a number of assets have significant lifetimes as shown in Figure 5.1, particularly structural assets such as bridges. In this case, adaptation measures will need to be built into the construction requirements of future assets.

Existing assets can be expensive to alter significantly during their lives. As such, a set of responses will be needed to manage their lifecycle. This is independent of one off events or trigger points which can impact on roads (i.e. sea level rise or flood), where a separate set of responses is required. Many existing assets have sufficient residual life such that they will be impacted by climate change before they reach the end of their operational lives.

Additionally there will need to be consideration as to how these assets are impacted by climate change; such as the resleeving and cathodic protection of bridge structures such as the Phillip Island Bridge. Sea level rise and increased heights of splash zone will need to be factored into an activity of this type.

Accordingly, typical response options to mitigate or avoid climate change impacts on existing assets, in principle, include:

z Undertake cost effective/appropriate/feasible alterations at some trigger point in the future (for example, undertake planned servicing/rehabilitation with more resilient materials (at a higher cost);

z Adopt a more intensive maintenance schedule (at a higher cost) to preserve level of service/maintain serviceable lifespan; and

z Accept lower level of service and/or shorter life to replacement/refurbishment.

Summary of Long Term Asset Responses


§ developing appropriate adaptation measures to be built into the design of new assets

§ developing guidance or a decision making framework and criteria for the improvement, upgrade or replacement of assets

§ evaluating the whole of life costs of adaptation response options for existing assets such as bridges


7.6 Organisational Responses

There are also a number of adaptation responses around organisational and data collection opportunities which are not specific to any specific type of asset or climatic parameter but need to be investigated to provide baseline information from which VicRoads, in collaboration with key stakeholders, can make more informed decisions regarding climate change adaptation measures. These include:

z developing baseline information on network impacts from climatic parameters, to better understand how any observed climate changes impact on the performance of the road network over the medium to long term. Examples of this are road condition monitoring and data on road closure duration, frequency and location

z ensuring that climate adaptation is considered in relation to the development and updating of other VicRoads strategies, for example the VicRoads Asset Strategy and the VicRoads Rural Arterial Roads Strategy

z standardising the integration of adaptation data layers such as sea level rise and storm surge into network planning activities to identify likely risks early in the development of an alignment. This could have the benefit of allowing climate risks to be avoided rather than including costly adaptation measures at a future point in time

z embedding a level of awareness in VicRoads across the organisation. This will assist employees to understand the likely types of impacts, understanding how VicRoads is addressing these risks and also assist employees in discussions with other stakeholders around adaptation. Importantly this will also assist employees required to assist in gathering data and information to understand why they are undertaking these actions

z constantly reviewing risk and responses as climate change projections are refined

z collaborating with the National Committee on Water Engineering of Engineers Australia in the ongoing review of the IFD to ensure that the design of new works will be able to accommodate the changes in rainfall patterns associated with climate change.

z the development of information and guidance for identified knowledge gaps necessary to more accurately understand climate change risks and impacts. These areas include, but are not limited to:

§ impact of fire on road pavements

§ contribution of VicRoads Assets to UHI effect and potential treatments

§ whether any areas in Victoria are susceptible to salt related pavement blistering or salinity related impacts

§ changes in the distribution of flora and fauna

§ alternative water sources

§ geotechnical risk (including coastal erosion)

z continuing to review potential risks and responses as a result of:

§ economic changes namely population growth and urban planning.

§ changes in the road network and innovations in smart car technologies, driverless cars, smart cities and other supporting infrastructure

§ understanding community expectations with respect to level of service and how the level of impacts acceptable for road users and freight will increase or decrease as more impacts occur

z reviewing financial implications including:

§ how adaptation will be funded, given the likely broad impacts on society and infrastructure resulting in competing needs for the same funding.

§ implications for insurance and whether insurance policies could be changed to incentivise adaptation or penalise a lack of adaptation

Summary of Organisational Responses


§ Ensuring appropriate existing sources of information are captured to provide baseline and contextual information for climate change impacts and to inform adaptation

§ Developing a level of internal awareness of climate change risks to VicRoads and how this is being addressed.

§ Ensuring that climate adaptation is integrated as appropriate into other new or revised VicRoads strategies to ensure appropriate consideration of responses

§ Developing and integrating appropriate climate risk data layers to ensure a consistent evaluation of forecast climate change impacts into strategic network planning activities

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8. Next Steps A climate resistant road network will reduce the physical vulnerability of critical infrastructure through the retrofitting and rehabilitation of existing infrastructure including associated drainage and flood mitigation systems in order to strengthen its resilience to natural hazards and the anticipated impacts of climate change.

Developing resilience and building adaptive capacity of road networks, especially in regards to climate change, is integral to accessing and delivering critical infrastructure. Over time, state and national infrastructure has become increasingly interconnected and interdependent, with a particular reliance upon transportation systems, so failures or loss of transport services will have subsequent effects. Any damage to road infrastructure from climate change and extreme weather can have an impact on local communities and businesses. Restrictions on the movement of people, goods and supplies around a region will almost certainly lead to impacts upon the local economy, environment and the health and wellbeing of residents. Given these interdependencies within and between infrastructure sectors, it is essential that these interdependencies are both understood and managed to improve the resilience of infrastructure to future climate change.

Ongoing monitoring and review of climate change risk, vulnerabilities and the effectiveness of adaptation response is essential. According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC).

Monitoring and evaluation of projects, policies and programmes forms an important part of the adaptation process. Ultimately, successful adaptation will be measured by how well different measures contribute to effectively reducing vulnerability and building resilience. Lessons learned, good practices, gaps and needs identified during the monitoring and evaluation of going and completed projects, policies and programme will inform future measures, creating an iterative and evolutionary adaptation process.

Given the timeframes of projected climate change impacts, VicRoads has time to revise its climate change adaptation responses as updated information becomes available. The exceptions are the need for early integration of climate change implications into the selection of road corridors and the design of bridges given their long design life and the difficulty in adapting existing bridges. In addition, these climate change impacts, including those beyond 2100 are important to understand as part of current strategic network planning activities. The creation of road reservations (such as the E6 transport corridor) can be in place for a significant amount of time before construction. It is therefore important to consider climate change impacts as part of the creation of road reservations, especially along coast so road networks are developed away from areas of risk.

The projected climatic changes will almost certainly have a significant impact on the appraisal, design, construction, operation and maintenance of road infrastructure. The risk assessment process described herein enables climate change to be regarded as a strategic risk to which requires consideration and adoption of adaptation principles to address the climate-induced impacts.

VicRoads recognises that for adaptation measures to be successful, it will need to incorporate involvement from a number of stakeholders such as local councils, catchment authorities and other government departments who would likely be affected or who would be involved in a co-ordinated response. Not only will this facilitate early engagement but should minimise any duplication of effort or maladaptation. Forward planning will enable VicRoads in partnership with its key stakeholders - to make investment decisions at the right time, making sure that it continues to provide the levels of service that its stakeholders and network users expect, both now and in the future.


Glossary AEP Annual Exceedence Probability is the probability of a given volume of rainfall being exceeded in year (i.e. a 20% AEP of 100mm is a probability of 20% that the annual rainfall will exceed 100mm). 100 divided by the AEP will give a rough indication of the length of time between annual rainfalls of a given volume (i.e. 100/20 = 5 years between annual rainfall volumes of 100mm).

Asphalt a graded mixture of stones and finer particles bound together with bitumen.

BOM Bureau of Meteorology

CCTV VicRoads maintains a network of Closed Circuit Television Cameras at strategic locations on the road network to help monitor and manage traffic flow conditions

CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation is an Australian Federal agency performing scientific research

DEPI is the former Department of Environment and Primary Industry, a Victorian State Government Department which managed Coasts & Marine, Conservation & Environment, Fire & Other Emergencies, Forests, Land Management, Parks & Reserves, Plants & Animals, Property Titles & Maps, Recreation & Tourism and Water

DEDJTR is the Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, a Victorian State Government Department.

DELWP is the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, a Victorian State Government Department.

DSE Department of Sustainability and Environment a former Victorian State Government Department, which managed water resources, climate change, bushfires, public land, forests and ecosystems. It is now incorporated within DELWP.

IFD or Intensity, Frequency, Duration is a commonly used tool to graphically represent the projected rainfall volumes for a rainfall event with combination of rainfall intensity, event frequency and event duration.

IPCC The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a global scientific body established by the United Nations. It produced reports that support international efforts to limit and manage climate change

LED Light Emitting Diode, a technology used to provide illumination (currently used primarily for traffic lights, but may be extended to public street lighting) that has a long service life and low operating costs due to low power consumption

Main Road or Arterial Road VicRoads is the co-ordinating road authority for management of the declared freeways and arterial roads listed in the Road Management Act 2004, but excludes local roads under the care of local government, forest roads under the care of the Department of Environment and Primary Industry and Toll Roads.

Roadside generally refers to the area between the outer edge of shoulder or kerbing and the road reserve boundary that is usually grassed or planted. It includes pedestrian and cycle paths.

Road Pavement Road Pavement Layers are made up of compacted layers of structural fill and crushed rock. The purpose of the road pavement is to carry wheel loads without deforming and causing damage to the surface layers.

Road Surface The majority of main roads in Victoria have a waterproof layer of surface material to provide a low maintenance all-weather riding surface and protect the underlying road pavement material from ingress of free water. Typically, this surface is a sprayed seal in rural areas and an asphalt layer in more heavily trafficked urban areas.

Sprayed Seal a surface of stones embedded in a layer of bitumen.

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Appendices

Appendix 1 : Case Studies

Phillip Island Road – Climate Adaptation

Phillip Island Road is the only means of road access to San Remo and Phillip Island, which has some of Victoria’s iconic tourist locations and sporting events, as well as a resident population of over 9000.

In September 2012 an erosion event removed about 3 metres of foreshore at San Remo adjacent to the Phillip Island Rd, with the road now within 3-4 metres of the edge of the cliff and at risk of collapse. The cliff in this vicinity is about 11 metres in height.

The adaption measure selected was a revetment, which is a sloping structure designed to protect an area and absorb the energy of incoming water. The revetment was designed to be a non-overtopping seawall with a lifespan of 100 years. The designed rock revetment crest level of 3.91m AHD has been calculated using the highest astronomical tide for Stony Point (1.65m), the 1 in 100 storm surge level (0.82m), sea level rise at 2100 (0.8m) and the wave run up for rock armoured slopes (2:1) with an impermeable core (0.64m). That is 1.65 + 0.82 + 0.8 + 0.64 = 3.91. In this way, the design life of the revetment (and the stability of the slope behind it) is maximised while mitigating the potential impacts of climate change.

This provided an opportunity to work together and deliver a positive outcome for both parties and the community, and is planned to link with other existing and future tracks in this area to enhance the foreshore experience D

ELW

PD

ELW

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Great Ocean Road – Adaptation Measure

As part of current Great Ocean Road maintenance works, drainage near approximately 1.5 kilometres south west of Wye River, was identified as needing replacement, due to age and damage as stormwater was gathering on the upstream side and infiltrating the embankment creating cavities and weakening the strength of the embankment.

The location prior to adaptation is shown in the photo below. Whilst it was seen that the existing drainage was undersize to requirements, the likely future drainage needs were considered, including the potential for more intense rainfall events as a result of climate change.

After consideration of likely parameters, with a local projected rainfall projected to remain at 900-1100mm per year in 2050 (DEPI, 2014) and an increased rainfall intensity of 6.5 percent in 2070, it was decided to replace the existing 600mm diameter drain was replaced with two 1.5metre diameter drains, which are shown in photo below. This will ensure that the culvert can deal with projected volumes and increases to projected rainfall intensities. Additional works included replacing the concrete end walls, the existing fill material, install kerb and channel and beaching to control embankment erosion and installation of guard fence. The completed works are shown below.

Given the iconic nature and high proportion of tourist traffic, the main challenge in implementing the works was in communicating the closures of the road and ensuring it occurred during a time with lower projected traffic volumes.

DE

LWP

DE

LWP

DE

LWP

Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Government & Nonprofit

Transcript of Climate Change Adaptation Strategy