Climate Change Adaptation for Sustainable Livelihoods in the Agricultural Sector: the case

of Bangladesh

Selvaraju RamasamyEnvironment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division

FAO, Rome

Drought Prone Areas in Bangladesh

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Rabi– KarifI KarifII Rabi

Seasons

Enabling and disabling

institutions and support services

Livelihood profiles and assets

Local risk perception and coping strategies

Hazard and vulnerability analysis and monitoring

Risk Analysis

Hazard risk mitigation and climate adaptation (options)• Institution Building (entry point DRM) Agricultural technology diversification Better integration of hazard risk management rehabilitation-development efforts Enhanced Climate Forecast Applications Livelihood enhancement or diversification Gender sensitive adaptation

Awareness raising & Advocacy

Inter- ministerial coordination

Capacity building• Legislation, standards setting • Training of key stakeholders • Policy advice

Climate change scenarios and anticipated risks

Impacts of climate variability and change

Analytical Framework

Assessments Outcomes/interventions

Future Climate Change: downscaling scenarios

YearYear Sea level Sea level rise (cm)rise (cm)

SeasonSeason Temperature Temperature increase (ºC)increase (ºC)

Precipitation Precipitation fluctuation (%) asfluctuation (%) ascompared to 1990compared to 1990

(%) change in (%) change in evaporationevaporation

20302030 3030 MonsoonMonsoon +0. 7+0. 7 + 11+ 11 +15.8+15.8

WinterWinter +1.3+1.3 - 3- 3 - 0.9- 0.9

20502050 5050 MonsoonMonsoonWinterWinter

+1.1+1.1+1.8+1.8

+28+28-37-37

+16.7+16.700

Source: National communication DoE, BGD, 2002

Year

Temperature change (ºC) mean (standard deviation) Precipitation change (%) mean (standard deviation)

Annual DJF JJA Annual DJF JJA

Baseline average 2278 mm 33.7 mm 1343.7 mm

2030 1.0 (0.11) 1.0 (0.18) 0.8 (0.16) +3.8 (2.30) -1.2 (12.56) +4.7 (3.17)

2050 1.4 (0.16) 1.6 (0.26) 1.1(0.23) +5.6 (3.33) -1.7 (18.15) +6.8 (4.58)

Agarwala et al., 2003

StrengtheningStrengthening Institutional set-up Institutional set-up

Sub-Assistant

Ag. Officer

DMB

District DMC

Upazilla DMC

Union DMCProject officers

DAE – Technical Core Group

District Deputy Director

Upazilla Ag. Officer

Community/Farmer Groups/Associations/Local Facilitation Team

NTIWGDMB, DAE, BMD,

DRR, LI, DoE

UTIWGNational expert advisory group

DAE: Department of Agriculture

Extension

DMC: District Disaster

management Committee

DMB: Disaster Management

Bureau

NTIWG: National Technical

Implementation Working Group

MoA- DAE Operational StructureMoFDM Operational Structure

1. Agronomic management

2. Water harvesting and exploitation

3. Water Use efficiency

4. Crop intensification

5. Alternative crop enterprises

6. Post harvest practices

Typology of adaptation options in AG/LI, FI and FO

Seasonal planning for Seasonal planning for implementation of optionsimplementation of options

Pre-seasonal good practice Pre-seasonal good practice identificationidentification and validation meeting (Clearing house and validation meeting (Clearing house mechanisms) to decide on new good mechanisms) to decide on new good practices for demos and on replicationspractices for demos and on replications

seasonal working plans before each seasonal working plans before each cropping season for immediate cropping season for immediate implementationimplementation

Community Mobilization and Field Demonstration

Awareness raisingAwareness raising cultural programmes for awareness cultural programmes for awareness

creation of local people about climate creation of local people about climate change adaptationchange adaptation

Extension strategiesExtension strategies orientation meetings, farmer field orientation meetings, farmer field

schools, folk songs and drams, schools, folk songs and drams, demonstration rally, exchange visitsdemonstration rally, exchange visits

Mobilization of local communityMobilization of local community Farmer GroupsFarmer Groups Local facilitation Team (LFTs)Local facilitation Team (LFTs)

Capacity BuildingCapacity Buildingi) Climate risk and impact analysisi) Climate risk and impact analysis climate risk analysis methodsclimate risk analysis methods climate change impactsclimate change impacts

ii) Climate forecast applications for ii) Climate forecast applications for drought mitigationdrought mitigation

introduction to forecast productsintroduction to forecast products Application of weather and Application of weather and

climate forecast productsclimate forecast products

iii)iii) Available adaptation options in Available adaptation options in AgricultureAgriculture

viable adaptation optionsviable adaptation options Prioritized adaptation options Prioritized adaptation options

and methods of implementationand methods of implementation

Interpreting global climate outlook into

local outlook

Translating local climate outlook into

impact scenarios

Communication to/ from farmers

Providing climate outlook

Integration of climate forecasts to enhance adaptive capacity

Complementary adaptation measures

Physical adaptive measures

Livelihood enhancement

Income diversification

Strengthening community as well as formal institutional structures

Financial mechanisms for risk transfer

public private partnerships

Testing of locally selected adaptation options

Mini pond for supplementary irrigation during drought spells

Homestead gardening

Dry seedbed practice with minimal supplemental irrigation

Jujubi (Ziziphus jujuba) was considered as a potential alternative option to existing autonomous mango cultivation

Testing of locally selected adaptation options

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Designing local adaptation strategies

Identification and testingAdaptation options

Assessing future risks

Assessing currentvulnerability

Assessing current climate risks

Livelihood assessment & profiling

Assessing natural, socio-economic and institutional framework

Assessing local perception on risks

Future climate impact assessment & outlooks

Local agro-meteorological data collection and monitoring

Downscaling climate change scenarios

Institutional and technical capacity building

Validation and selection of adaptation options

Identify suitable adaptation options and extension methods

Community mobilization and local awareness raising

Advocacy, broader awareness raising and networking

Economic feasibility studies

Field based demonstration and application of adaptation options

Up-scaling and mainstreaming

Advocacy, broader awareness raising and networking

Economic feasibility studies

to be addressed in second phase of LACC

Identification of adaptation options including local technologies

Adaptation Framework

Key Lessons: Entry pointsKey Lessons: Entry points

Current climate variability and DRMCurrent climate variability and DRM Awareness raisingAwareness raising Doing better on known sustainable Doing better on known sustainable

land and water management practicesland and water management practices Indigenous knowledge and no regret Indigenous knowledge and no regret

optionsoptions

Key LessonsKey Lessons Climate change further declines the adaptive capacity - Climate change further declines the adaptive capacity -

need to launch adaptation measures now. BUT HOW to need to launch adaptation measures now. BUT HOW to work in a work in a relatively uncertain state;relatively uncertain state;

Climate Change Adaptation is location specific and social Climate Change Adaptation is location specific and social learning process – learning how to adapt better;learning process – learning how to adapt better;

Strengthening institutions with clearly determined Strengthening institutions with clearly determined responsibilitiesresponsibilities

DRR, climate change adaptation and development goes DRR, climate change adaptation and development goes together at the local leveltogether at the local level

strengthening research-development linkages to address strengthening research-development linkages to address the future risksthe future risks

Community based adaptation links bottom up livelihood Community based adaptation links bottom up livelihood perspectives and government led top down approachesperspectives and government led top down approaches

monitoring on-going adaptation practices, alert on risks of monitoring on-going adaptation practices, alert on risks of mal-adaptation, and establish links with policy makingmal-adaptation, and establish links with policy making

promote public – private partnership to support inputspromote public – private partnership to support inputs

THANK YOU