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Climate Change

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What is climate change?

Weather changes all times. Climate naturally is stable but

human activities cause climate change rapidly.

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What is major cause of climate change?

CO2 is one of greenhouse gas caused by human activities.

CO2 traps solar heat in the atmosphere then air temperature is increased.

Global warming increased about 0.3-0.6OC during 1860-1994.

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Human activities v.s. climate change

Major contributors: (80-85% of CO2 being added to atmosphere• Coal, oil and natural gas through

combustion and release CO2

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Modest contributors:• Deforestation: CO2 is released

by wood burning• CO2 from deforestation in

tropical regions are responsible for 15-20% of CO2 emission.

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•Paddy rice field, landfills produce methane and other greenhouse gas which causes about 30% of warming

•Fertiliser and other chemicals release N2O cause about 10% of warming

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Not significant causes of climate change:

• Aerosol spray cans (cause the loss of ozone layer)

• nuclear power (no CO2 emission but high environmental risk of catastrophic accidents)

• the space programme

• toxic waste

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What are effects of climate change? Example of changes:

• The amount of pattern of rain and snow

• the length of growing season

• the frequency and severity of storm

• The change of sea level rise

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What are feedbacks of climate change? CO2 acts as fertilizer• to make plants grow faster and

result in negative feedback to slowing the rate of warming.

Earth warms causes snow and ice to melt.• The ground is exposed with the

sunlight and absorbed by the earth so it results positive feedback.

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How much warming will there be?

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has projected further increase in global surface temperature of 1-3.5 oC by the year 2100 as compared with 1990.

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IPCC Projection: (Oct 2001)

CO2 concentration in 2100 of 540-970 ppm.

An increase in globally averaged surface temperature of 1.4-5.8oC.

An increase in sea level of 0.09-0.88m.

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Can you suggest the solutions for CO2 emission reduction in Thailand?

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Impacts of climate change to Tropical Asia:

Ecosytems: Water resources: Food and fiber production: Coastal systems: Human health:

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Ecosystems:

Changes in the distribution and health of rainforest and drier monsoon forest will be complex.

In Thailand, the area of tropical forest could increase from 45% to 80% of total forest cover (prediction ???) and in Sri Lanka will increase in dry forest and decrease in wet forest.

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Water resources:

The Himalayas are expected to result in increased recession of glaciers and increasing danger from glacial lake outburst floods caused by increased temperature and precipitation.

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Food and fiber production:

Climate change impacts could result in significant changes in• crop yield• production• storage• distribution

The net effect of changes in regionwide is uncertain.

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Coastal systems: Sea-level rise is the climate-related

impact on large delta regions such as:• Bangladesh• Myanmar• Vietnam• Thailand• Indonesia • Philippines• Malaysia

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Human health:

Some vector-borne diseases are expected to increase in Tropical Asia with global warming.

Epidemic potential of • Malaria (increase 12-27%)• Schistosomiasis (decrease 11-17%)• Dengue (increase 31-47%)

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What can be done about climate change?

To control the future emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gases

To reduce emission from baseline of 1990

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To reduce energy consumption with improving energy efficiency

To search new energy source as renewable or clean energy

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Abatement options

Consider 3 kinds of options:• 1. Improved energy efficiency

• 2. Use of cleaner energy

• 3. Changes in agriculture and forestry

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1. Improved energy efficiency:

Reduced energy use in building as eco-design to save energy

Improved fuel efficiency of new cars: by increased average mileage

Make appliances more efficient: refrigerators, dishwasher, etc are used new technology to save energy

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Example of energy safe:

Lighting • Incandescent lamps have been repla

ced by compact fluorescent lamps.

• This compact (18 watt) can save over its lifetime:

• 1 tonne of CO2 , 4kg of SO2, 1kg of N2O from coal-fired plant

• 200 litres of oil fed into an oil-fired power station

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Energy-save house (Eco-design)• Traditional Thai house

• save energy and appropriate with tropical climate

• Eco-design house

•modern house with energy save-concept

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Office equipment:

• Computers•Desktop computer and screen us

e electricity at a rate of 150 watts which compares to portable computer use at 1.5 watts.

• Printers• Ink-jet printers and fax machines

use only 1-2% as much electricity as laser printers.

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2. Use of cleaner energy: Switching to • lower-carbon or carbon-free

energy• renewable energy (solar energy,

wind energy, biomass energy)

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Example of clean energy:

Solar energy Wind energy Thermal energy Biomass energy

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3. Change in agriculture and forestry:

Rice paddy field• to provide new technique to

minimise CO2 emission

Livestock• feed improvement and manure

management in order to reduce CH4 emission

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Forestry• to protect existing forest and

enhance to increase forest area

• to preserve forest as carbon sink

• to manage forest products as long-life materials

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How can human solve this problem?

UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) in 1992• Responding to concern that human

activities are increasing ‘GHGs’ concentration in the atmosphere.

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Kyoto Protocol is one protocol to UNFCCC to reduce GHGs emission by harnessing the force of the global marketplace to protect environment.• A central feature of protocol is a

set of binding emission targets for developed countries based on 1990 baselines.

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Thailand ratified on UNFCC in 1994: Office of Environmental Policy

and Planning (OEPP), MoSTE has also signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1999 but has yet to ratify it.

Thailand participated in COP7 (7th Conference of the Parties) to make decision for Kyoto Protocol ratification in 2001??.

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Emission targets (2008-2012)

European Union USA Japan, Canada Eastern European

countries Annex A Average reduction

8% below 1990 levels 7% “ “ 6% “ “ 5-8% “ “

5% “ “ 5.2% “ “

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Is it possible to reduce CO2 emission without US. Cooperation and commitment

?

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