Climate change

Pavel Alekseychik, University of Helsinki 2 April 2014, Khanty-Mansijsk

Climate Change – does it really exist?

Pavel AlekseychikKhanty-Mansijsk, April 2014


Brief CV

• Started at the Russian State Hydrometeorological University (RSHU) at St.Petersburg at 2006

• Continued at the University of Helsinki at 2009, obtained Bachelor’s and Master’s degree there

• Currently at the end of the 3rd year as a PhD student at the group of micrometeorology

• Main interests: biogeochemical cycles in the northern ecosystems, climate-ecosystem interactions, micrometeorology, technology and warfare of the Middle Ages


“Climate – the history of weather on the timescale of 50 year or longer”


1. Climate IS changing.


Judging by the cave art of Sahara, that place used to beone huge thriving oasis full of life


Look at some Dutch Renaissance paintings, 16th – 17th centuries weren’t too warm.


You can find a trend in any measurements, like temperature here.So is this showing the changing climate?


Periodic climate changes may be found to have affected our civilization


Looking at a longer period (Vostok ice core), we still see variation, with a higher amplitude and period


Ocean water level is of importance for coastal areas. Not so much for Siberia…


The ice ages cause the variation in sea level of more than 100m


2. The scale of change


It makes a lot of sence to record some quantities for a Long time. You just might see a trend.


Add more measurements, and you will see more trends.


Derive at what happened to those variables a long time ago,and you will have a better perspective.


3. Driving forces behind the climate change


Carbon cycle is probably THE main cycle on

earth.


A “dead-end” of the carbon cycle: C accumulationIn the form of natural gas/oil/coal


Unstable peatland carbon pools

Siikaneva peatland, Finland


Unstable peatland carbon pools


Some microbes living in peat exhale CH4; industry also does thatCH4 produces a much stronger heating effect than CO2.


Methane emissions from natural ecosystems are Strongly controlled by temperature, but what has caused this rise in

the last 300 years?


Tectonic activity - a rare, but crucial force[Siberian trapps, thought to have triggered the Permian climate

change and extinction event]


Tectonic activity - a sporadic, but crucial force


Milankovitch cycles: Earth orbital changes are correlated with its climate


4. The climate is constantly adjusted by the greenhouse effect


Greenhouse effect


IPCC assessment

of effectson climate


IPCC: real people

Timo VesalaSigrid DengelMartin HeimannJouni RäisänenVeli-Matti Kerminen…


5. But it’s not just about carbon cycle… - feedbacks!


BVOC emissions by the forest- biological volatile organic compounds

BVOC


BVOC seen as “blue haze”

BVOC


Feedback loop:rising CO2 leads to lower temperature??


ALBEDO effect:snow masking


Interhemispheric CO2 differenceversus anthropogenic emissions

Anthropogenic Emissions of CO2

CO2 (Northern)-CO2 (Southern)

Ref.: Prof. Martin Heimann


5. Synthesis: use all the known relations to predict the future climate

Climate change

Technology

Transcript of Climate change