Climate and Marine Protected Areas IMPACT Project Catherine Marzin 1, Karsten Shein 2, Tess Brandon...
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Transcript of Climate and Marine Protected Areas IMPACT Project Catherine Marzin 1, Karsten Shein 2, Tess Brandon...
Climate and Marine Protected AreasIMPACT ProjectIMPACT Project
Catherine Marzin1, Karsten Shein2, Tess Brandon3, Doug Pirhalla4, Brian Keller1, Jim Hendee5
(1) NOS/ONMS; (2) NESDIS/NCDC; (3) NESDIS/NODC; (4) NOS/NCCOS; (5) OAR/AOML
Climate and MPA workshop • 11-13 January, 2010 • AOML, Miami, FL
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Climate Change as Threat
• Continued global warmingwill …– Bleach corals– Favor invasive species– Force geographic shifts in species
populations– Contribute to mass mortality
episodes– Impact human lives and property
Assessments and planning• USGCRP Climate Change Impacts on the
United States: Coastal and Marine Resources– “Marine populations and ecosystems have been
highly responsive to climate variability.”
• White House Ocean Policy Task Force: Interim Framework for Effective Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (Jan 2010)– “Places science-based information at the heart of
decision making.”3 of 16
USGCRP: Climate Change Impacts on the United States: Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change on Coastal Areas and Marine Resources (2001)
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What factors are involved?What factors are involved?• Thermal stress• Acidification• Salinity• Mechanical stress• Opacity
– Sedimentation– Biomass– turbidity
• Pollutants– Pathogens– Nutrients– Contaminants
• Invasive species
All can be related to climate and climate change …
Image credit: U. MD Ctr. for Environmental Sci. Horn Pt. Lab
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How might climate affect these factors?How might climate affect these factors?
• Temperature• Precipitation• Radiation• Wind• Cloudiness• Pressure• Trace Gases• Other ?
But “How”
• In order to understand the future, we must first understand the past.
• Baseline climatologies
• Quantification of changes in space and time• So what?
- If we know climate is changing – what can we do?• Short term (monitoring, stress-reduction)• Long term (mitigation, adaptation, marine spatial planning)
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Tropical Cyclones• Can have significant impact on near-shore marine
ecosystems.• Systematic changes in path, intensity and timing
are important to identify and understand.• Are certain areas seeing increased or decreased
vulnerability to storm strikes?
A brief example …
• Will earlier or later storms have greater impact on unsuspecting ecosystems?
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Hurricane Tracks near the FKNMS (1998-2008)
Thanks to J. Schittone (ONMS) for the graphic.
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Atlantic/Caribbean TC Season
A matter of scale
• Most climate change information is based on coarse-resolution aggregations.
• Localized variations and influences may be far different.
• To address these local-scale behaviors we must develop climate resources at these finer scales.
South Florida Protected AreasRookery Bay
NERR
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Met stations around the FKNMS
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• Hourly data• Daily data• Monthly data
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Integrated Marine Protected Area Climate Tool (IMPACT)
Integrated Marine Protected Area Climate Tool (IMPACT)
– Climate reference baseline• Normals, extremes, ranges,
probabilities, etc.• Context of biological resources
– Better address climate and climate change impacts
– Determine spatial and temporal variability of favorable and unfavorable climatic conditions.
– Understand ecological response to climate change
– Climate tool for MPA managers
• Work to develop climatologies of marine protected areas.
Towering cumulus over FKNMS
Status to date
• Team building• Preliminary data discussions– Needs and inventory
• SARP grant application• This workshop
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Thank You
Karsten SheinNOAA National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton AveAsheville, NC 28801
Catherine MarzinNOAA National Marine Sanctuaries Program1305 East West Hwy SSMC4Silver Spring, MD 20910301-713-3125 [email protected]