Climate and Health Effects of Regional Nuclear War How sudden global cooling could produce a...

Climate and Health Effectsof Regional Nuclear War

How sudden global cooling could produce a “nuclear famine”

International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War

Overview1. Preventing nuclear war is a medical imperative

2. Thousands of nuclear explosions would cause a nuclear winter

3. Even a regional nuclear war using a small fraction of the world’s arsenal, would have devastating global climate effects

4. Abolishing these instruments of mass extermination through a Nuclear Weapons Convention is the only responsible way to address this threat to our common security and survival


August 6, 1945Hiroshima destroyed by a single 15-kt nuclear weapon

150,000 deaths from blast, burns, and radiation effects


Medical Consequences of Nuclear War

Effects of a 10- to 20-kiloton nuclear weapon, detonated at an altitude of 1 km include:

Temperatures of ~7,000 degrees C beneath fireball ignite fires in cities and industrial targets; intense winds fuel firestorms

Tens of thousands of immediate deaths Tens of thousands of burns; thousands of crush and impact

injuries Thousands of survivors blinded and deafened Physicians and other health workers killed; hospitals destroyed Acute radiation injuries and long-term radiation-related illnesses


Nuclear Winter

Massive amounts of smoke and soot from fires rise into the upper atmosphere

Sunlight reflected back into space Rapid, large drops in global surface

temperatures Collapse of basic, life-sustaining

ecosystems


World Nuclear Forces, 2007United StatesRussiaChinaFranceUnited KingdomIsraelIndiaPakistanDPRK (N. Korea)

10,40014,000

200348200

805060

<10Source: Federation of American Scientists, NRDC


Nuclear War in South Asia

20,000,000 deaths in major cities in India and Pakistan

Radioactive contamination throughout both countries and in Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Tibet, China, and other neighbors

Global climate disruption from smoke and soot


Nuclear War in South Asia

Nuclear explosions ignite fires that burn whole cities

Soot lofted high into the atmosphere absorbs incoming sunlight

Dramatic decrease in amount of light reaching the surface

Large, rapid drops in surface temperature


Graph courtesy of Alan Robock

• Average surface cooling: -1.25° C• Persistent cooling (10 years): -0.5° C



Global climate change unprecedented in recorded human history


Chart courtesy of Alan Robock

Detail from chart courtesy of Alan Robock

North America


Europe


Asia

Volcanoes and Global Cooling

Large volcanic eruption in Indonesia Prolonged cooling (536-554 AD) Extensive crop failures Drought Severe famine


Laki Volcano

Eruption in 1783 lasted eight

months Severe winter resulted in mass

starvation of livestock Resulting famine killed about

one-quarter of Iceland's human

population Greatest natural disaster in the

history of Iceland Effects felt as far away as Egypt


Erupted April 1815 -0.7 degrees C temperature drop Dramatic shortening of growing season

Tambora Volcano


1816 — The Year Without a Summer

Four major frosts in US and Canada

June snowstorm in New England

Extensive crop damage

Grain prices doubled

Famine in Ireland, Germany, Switzerland,

France, India


Nuclear War: The Impact on Agriculture

Sudden cooling, decreased sunlight, less rainfall shortens growing seasons; reduces crop yields

Stratospheric ozone depletion damages crops sensitive to UV-B

Disruption of petroleum supplies affects use of farm machinery and fertilizer and pesticide production

Radioactive and toxic contamination takes farmland out of production

Collapse of distribution systemInternational Physicians

for the Prevention of Nuclear War

Annual Grain Consumption:2,098 million tons

World Grain Stocks:322 million tons (56 days)


Chronic Malnutrition Today

1,800-2,200 caloriesminimum daily requirement

800 million people at or belowthis level of daily intake


Availability vs. Accessibility


Great Bengal Famine of 1943

Food production declined only 5% Actually 13% higher than 1941

when there was no famine 3 million people died


1972Price of wheat doubled in response to a fall in global

grain stocks to 60 days


1 billion deadfrom starvation

alone?


Epidemic Disease Plague Cholera Malaria Typhus


War and Civil Conflict

Food riots Civil wars Wars between nations…


…further use of nuclear weapons?


Islamabad, 2007NATO Headquarters, 2006

Moscow, 2006 New Delhi, 2008



The ICAN Action Plan

Build awareness among public, health professionals, and decision makers about growing nuclear dangers, including Nuclear Famine, and urgent need for abolition Promote Nuclear Weapons Convention at the UNGA, NPT, and other disarmament forums Promote removal of highly-enriched uranium (HEU) from production of medical isotopes Build diverse civil society partnerships

Acknowledgments

IPPNW gratefully acknowledges the research published by Alan Robock, PhD, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University (http://envsci.rutgers.edu/~robock); Owen B. Toon, PhD, Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Science, University of Colorado at Boulder and their colleagues, upon which portions of this presentation are based.


http://envsci.rutgers.edu/~robock

Selected Bibliography O. B. Toon, R. P. Turco, A. Robock, C. Bardeen, L. Oman, and G. L. Stenchikov, 2007: Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism. Atm. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002. A. Robock, L. Oman, G. L. Stenchikov, O. B. Toon, C. Bardeen, and R. P. Turco, 2007: Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts. Atm. Chem. Phys., 7, 2003-2012. M. J. Mills, O. B. Toon, R. P. Turco, D. E. Kinnison, and R. R. Garcia. Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2008;105:5307–5312. I. Helfand. An assessment of the extent of projected global famine resulting from limited, regional nuclear war. IPPNW. Cambridge, MA. October 2007. (www.ippnw.org)

Complete list of relevant articles and additional resources at: http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/nuclear


http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/nuclear

Steps to Safety

• Take Nuclear Weapons off of High Alert

• Reduce U.S./Russian Nuclear Arsenals to 1000, as first step to deeper reductions on way to global elimination

• Ratify the CTBT

• Secure all “loose” nuclear material in 4 years

• Negotiate a ban on production of nuclear weapon (fissile) material

44

Bipartisan Support for CTBTand a Nuclear Weapons Free World

Kissinger, Shultz, Perry, Nunn Renew Vision of Nuclear Free World

A Vision of a World Free of Nuclear Weapons

“A world free of nuclear weapons is a world in which the possibility oftheir use no longer exists.”

is a world in which the possibility oftheir use no longer exists.”e possibility oftheir use no longer exists.”

46

“Concerning President Obama's commitment to the removal of nuclear

weapons from the Earth, I certainly support that ambitious goal.”

McCain, April 2009 Press Conference

Cost of Nuclear Weapons

In 2008, US spent

$52.4 billion

on nuclear weapons-related programs

(14X the amount spent on developing new sources of energy)

48Source: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

49

HEU and Nuclear Medicine

4 major competitors

1. MDS Nordion (Canada)2. TycoHealthcare / Mallinckrodt

(Netherlands)3. Institut National des

Radioéléments (Belgium)4. NECSA/NTP (South Africa)

NRU Reactor at Chalk River, Canada, where MDS Nordion irradiates HEU targets to produce medical isotopes

95% of the world’s radiopharmaceuticals are derived from BOMB-GRADEHighly Enriched Uranium (HEU)

50

Conversion

IPPNW proposed resolution to World Health Assembly: Reducing the contribution of the health sector to nuclear proliferation and terrorist risks by eliminating HEU from production of radiopharmaceuticals

• Conversion from HEU to LEU is possible

• No future needs for HEU identified

• Current conversion programmes: successful

India -Pakistan• Historical ongoing conflict between India and

Pakistan on Kashmir

• The nuclear arm race between them since 1998

• The crunch of resources for health, education and food is the reality

The Medical Measures• The confidence building measures (CBMs)

between them

• Indian/Pakistani Doctors for Peace and Development (IDPD) and PDPD and their student chapters playing role in enhancing CBMs

• Engaging the leaders and the future leaders in dialogue

• Organizing events for the public awareness including march and demonstrations

The Role of Medical Students

• Organizing Hiroshima and Nagasaki Days

• NWIP (Nuclear Weapons Inheritance Project)

• Demonstrations, workshops and presentations

• The concept of regional cooperation

• North-South gap bridging

• Nuclear weapons free: my cup of tea

• Nuclear weapons: not our future

Nuclear Weapons Inheritance Project (NWIP)

• Medical students to medical students

• Delegations and presentations

• Confidence building

• Street action and Target X

• Youths and doctors in training in the peacebuilding

Peace through Health: Nepal’s Lessons

• Recent historical movement

• Constituent Assembly elections and republican system

• Conflicts - regional and local

• Physicians and medical students’ roles in peace-building

• Peace through health and health through peace

www.ippnw.org

www.psr.org

www.icanw.org

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