CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT IN COPENHAGENProf. Milind Kandlikar, Liu Institute, UBC

Rich and Poor in the World Today

What is Development? Improvement in Human Wellbeing

HDI: Per capita Income, Health, Education Technology changes the structure of the

economy Ag -> Manufacturing -> Services Rural to Urban Energy Use Increases

Increasing Energy use Greater efficiency of use but… Greater emissions of carbon

Who is Responsible for Carbon Emissions?

Current vs. Historical

Who is Responsible for Carbon Emissions?

Per Capita Emissions

But is there a “Germany” within China?

Meanwhile….

Emission Pathways for < 2 C by 2050

Copenhagen ObjectivesSet up Global Emissions Target with EU and

US on boardPrice Carbon (Taxes, Permits, REDD)Engage BRIC countriesVulnerable countries and adaptation

Diverse Developing Country ResponseThose opposing binding targets

Very Large Rapidly Industrializing - China, India

Medium-sized emitters with large forests - Brazil and Indonesia

Those pushing for binding targets Existentially Threatened (Small Island States) Small and Impoverished ~50 countries with lower emissions

than UBC (e.g. Niger, Mali, Rwanda) The Rest - varying emissions and

vulnerabilities

What to Expect in Copenhagen? A binding agreement with US on board? Concessions from Large Emitters

China’s plan to reduce carbon intensity by 45% is a start

India’s plan to reduce intensity by 25%. “Make the Gringo Pay for Forest Preservation”

Brazil and REDD. Tropical Countries. A market-based framework for Tech. Transfer?

CDM is an utter failure An Adaptation Fund?

Exhortations by the most vulnerable for action (and aid)

Maldives, Bangladesh, African States

“The picture’s pretty bleak, gentlemen. The world’s climates are changing, the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain about the size of a walnut.”