Climate and Cryosphere Project -...
Transcript of Climate and Cryosphere Project -...
Victoria Lytle, director CliC project officeTromsø, [email protected]
Barry Goodison, Chair CliC projectVladimir Ryabinin, Joint Project Staff, WCRP
Climate and Cryosphere ProjectPresentation to NEESPI Summit (May 3-4, 2007, Helsinki, Finland)
Thanks to Tetsuo Ohata, Terry Prowse, Qin Dahe, Xiao Cunde and others
CliC Principal Goal:To assess and quantify the impacts that climatic variability and change have on components of the cryosphere and the consequences of these impacts for the climate system.CliC also seeks to determine the stability of the global cryosphere
CliC is organized around 4 themes (previously CPA’s)Theme 1 : Hydrometeorological effects of a shrinking
cryosphere
Theme 2 : Ice sheets and Sea Level Rise and theTheme 3 : Marine CryosphereTheme 4 : Global prediction of the Cryosphere
Regional Groups including Asia CliC
CliC Theme 1: The Terrestrial cryosphere and hydrometeorology of cold regions
Key questions:• What will be the magnitudes, patterns and rates of change in terrestrial
cryosphere regimes on seasonal to century time scales? What will be the associated changes in the water cycle?
• What is the role of terrestrial cryospheric processes in the spatial and temporal variability of the water, energy and carbon cycle of cold climate regions, and how can they be parameterized in models?
• What are the interactions and feedbacks between the terrestrial cryosphere and atmosphere/ocean systems and current climates, its variability and future change?
Outputs: (solid precip, snow, lake- and river-ice, glaciers, permafrost, frozen ground)• Spatial-temporal variability• Changes in the cryosphere and water cycle• Observations and data• Modelling
Borehole Depth
Permafrost ZonesContinuousWidespread DiscontinuousSporadic Discontinuous
Surface < 10 mShallow 10-25 mIntermediate 25-125 mDeep Geothermal > 125 m
Boreholes Eligible for GTN-P
Theme 1 : Terrestrial Cryosphere and hydrometeorology of cold regions
• Major initiatives relevant to NEESPI
• Changes of Cryosphere/Atmosphere/Biosphere system and Interaction in North-eastern Eurasia (CABIN ?)
Tetsuo Ohata, Takeshi Ohta, Atsuko Sugimoto, Jun Asanuma & others
• International High Asia Cryospheric Years (IHACY’s) Qin Dahe, Tetsuo Ohata, Asia CliC
• ICARP II working group 7 : Terrestrial Cryosphere & HydrologyTerry Prowse, Barry Goodison, Vladimir Ryabinin
• CryOS, a global cryosphere observation system (IGOS-cryo)• Sustained Arctic Observing Networks (SAON)
Study on the cold region hydro-climatology in Northeastern Eurasia
(CABIN<tentative>)
Tetsuo Ohata, IORGC/JAMSTEC, JapanTakeshi Ohta, Nagoya University, Japan
Atsuko Sugimoto, Hokkaido University, JapanJun Asanuma, Tsukuba University, Japan
and other collaborators
Changes of Cryosphere/Atmosphere/Biosphere system and Interaction in North-eastern Eurasia
Background and objectivesBackground(1) Although Northeastern Eurasia (NEE), coldest part of Eurasian continent, is a hot
spot in global change, its hydro-climatological changes are not well identified due to complex land surface、interaction systems and information shortage.
(2) Possible changes in this region, and its role in global change in the future, is not yet clear due to lack of understanding of the processes, and essential data-sets.
Objectives• Investigate and consolidate the climate and terrestrial change in this region
through detail and integrated studies especially on cryosphere, biosphere and atmosphere, through understanding the dominant and key processesresponsible for the change, .
• Knowledge on the dominant cryosphere/ biosphere/ atmosphere processes which is strongly related to its formation will be increased, and by them clarify the variability and future changes, through development and application of sophisticated models and various high-resolution data-sets.
Atmosphere
Snow ice Vegetation
Larger scale atmosphere
●This study is discussed in tight relation with international project as WCRP/CliC CPA1.●Will be build up to an international level framework for implementation.
Water/energy/material cycle
Sub-surface
Warming!
Schematic diagram of the study
Changes
Feedback system
Processes
Ten questions and actions(1) How is so-called “global warming” actually occurring in the terrestrial/
atmosphere system in NEE (Northeastern Eurasia) ?(2) Derive more accurate estimation of water/energy flow in this region for long
time scale. (i.e. precipitation, evaporation, runoff, SWE, ice in ground)
(3) How will water availability change, especially in southern periphery regions of NEE permafrost?
(4) How does snow cover and soil moisture anomaly (seasonal and year-to-year) affect the NH circulation, Siberian High and cold surges in East Asia?
(5) How is the vegetation change affecting the hydro-climatological conditions?(6) What is the past and present condition of regional sub-surface thermal and
ice condition?(7) What is the influence of shrinking snow/ice, increase in active layer to
greenhouse gases in NEE.(8) Establish better observation network, super-station and distributed network
of terrestrial/atmosphere system for future monitoring.(9) Obtain better view of the future changes by developing improved land
scheme for GCM and RCM and vegetation/frozen ground model.(10) Social activity influence to the hydro-climatological system and opposite.
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Seasonal variation of Precipitation(black), stream water(red) and runoff amount from forest at Shijir Valley in 2006.
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Example of Cryosphere/Biosphere Interaction: Threat of large hydrological Change southern periphery of NEE Permafrost Zone (Shjir Valley, Mongolia)
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Summer water budget
(1)In these area, forest predominates at North-facing slope with permafrost, and south-facing slopes are grass surface, without permafrost. Coexistence of permafrost and forest are very clear.
(2) Measurement made independently, show that runoff (83mm) occurs only from north facing forest slopes.
(3) Further warming will destruct permafrost and eventually forest, and runoff may disappear.
No runoff from grass slopes, only forest slopes
←Measured Stem flow(green), forest ET(blue) and grassland ET(Pink)
Detail in-situ research area.
Whole study region
The area of interest
Existing complex stations
Example of new station
Distributed stations for specific meas.
Critical region
Frozen ground
Snow cover
Northern Forest
Main target area is the permafrost regions, roughly corresponds to boreal forest and snow cover region.
International High Asia Cryospheric Years (IHACYs)
a program during IPY and beyond
Chinese National CliC committee
RationalHigh Asia, the largest cryospheric parts outside of the
polar regions
Vulnerable to global warming, fast decay and facing
the fate of vanishing
Very important in socioeconomic aspects, as the major
water resources of arid regions of central Asia.
Very important to regional/global scale hydrometeorology
Countries: China, Russian, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, etc.
Large cryospheric area
Yellow River
Indus Rive
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Ganges River
Brahmaputra
TarimRiver
Obi River
Yenisey River
Yangdz RiverLujiang River
Mekong
Yili RiverCryosphere in High Asia
2. On-going Programs or ProjectsThere are several ongoing programs and projects focused to or closely related to cryospheric research in China. They are:
(1) Environmental changes in Tibetan Plateau and its response to global change, as well as adaptation strategy studies (MoST);
(2) Observational studies for the glacio-hydrology in the typical areas in Himalayas responding to climate change;
(3) Present processes study on the cryospheric changes in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. (CAS);(4) Hydrological effects of the typical glacial and frozen ground changes under global warming (CAS);(5) The study on the response of glaciers in the south Tibetan Plateau to the climate change (CAS);(6) The effect of Indian monsoon and glacial changes to the resources and sustainable development of Li
Jiang and Yulong Mountain areas (NSFC);(7) The frozen/thaw processes of the soil in the Tibetan Plateau and its effect on the seasonal transition.(8) The active layer changes of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau as well as the seasonal frozen ground
changes in the surrounding areas of the plateau during the past decade (CAS);(9) Glacial changes surrounding the Tarim Basin and their impact to water resources (NSFC)(10) Ice-core records, glacial changes and water resources assessment of the Mutztag Glacier, Pamir
Plateau (MoST)
There are more than 20 projects specifically for ice-core studies and they are not included into the above summary.
The total amount of funds for the above programs and projects are over 82 million RMB, equaling to US$ 12 million
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The map of 612 weather stations for snow observation
By Liu Yujie
The outcomes of IHACYs could beEnhanced observations, including an uniformed usage of RS data, satellite design ( e.g., snapshots of cryospheric
components)Data exchange, data sets of observations and (re-) analyses Improved knowledge of related processes and ability to model, Higher predictability of changes in cryosphere and climateAssessment on cryospheric constrains for socio-economic activities (Information for water management/adaptation
between mountain /plateau areas and the arid lowlands.
More informative indicators of climate change
CliC-CNC
Working Group 7: Terrestrial
Cryosphere & Hydrology
Working Group 9: Modeling and
Predicting Arctic Weather and Climate
Barry GoodisonChair, CliC SSG
Terry Prowse ch7Klaus Dethloff ch9Vladimir Ryabinin,
Rapporteur
KEY SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS FOR TERRESTRIAL KEY SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS FOR TERRESTRIAL CRYOSPHERE/HYDROSPHERE: CRYOSPHERE/HYDROSPHERE:
What are the current interWhat are the current inter--annual and future climateannual and future climate--change induced variations in arctic landchange induced variations in arctic land--surface surface hydrologic processes that control significant changes to hydrologic processes that control significant changes to the the global and regional feedbacks to the climate systemglobal and regional feedbacks to the climate system? ?
What are the current and predicted major changes in the What are the current and predicted major changes in the hydrologic system that will significantly affect hydrologic system that will significantly affect terrestrial terrestrial and freshwater aquatic system production and and freshwater aquatic system production and biodiversity?biodiversity?
What are the changes in the hydrologic system that will What are the changes in the hydrologic system that will have significant have significant impacts on humansimpacts on humans??
ProcedureResearch focus on watersheds and
glacierized regions spanning a range of spatial scales using a 3-pronged approach:
1. process studies in existing well-studied basins• supersites and nested supersites
2. new programs in understudied or under-represented regions
• roving sites
3. process/modelling extrapolation to pan-arctic
Multi-National coordination crucial
Data Access , integration and ArchivingWork with Global Modeling groupsIntegrate/Contribute NEESPI results with other (circum-Arctic) groups
data, science, education……Contribute to Observing Networks (AON, CryOS)